Covid 19 Part XXII-30,360 in ROI(1,781 deaths) 8,035 in NI (568 deaths)(10/09)Read OP

stephenjmcd · 26-08-2020 07:13PM

lee_baby_simms wrote: »

The IFR rates from Spain from the last few months vs the first few months of the pandemic are very encouraging and certainly indicate a change in the virus.

Wouldn't be reading too much into that.

Nobody really had a clue what they were dealing with originally and are finding better ways to treat those in hosptial etc.

Many factors in play

Boggles · 26-08-2020 07:13PM

stephenjmcd wrote: »

We should see roughly 8% of cases in hosptial and we aren't and yes age has a role to play with this.

That figure is on confirmed cases.

If this thing had a hospitalization rate of 8% on all cases, we would be still in complete Lockdown.

We are probably finding the majority of cases at the moment.

blowitupref · 26-08-2020 07:14PM

Boggles wrote: »

Hospitalization rate is what it should be given the level of infections.

26 in hospital from 2101 cases the last 3 weeks is what it should be?

Boggles · 26-08-2020 07:16PM

blowitupref wrote: »

26 in hospital from 2101 cases the last 3 weeks is what it should be?

There has been more than 26 in hospital the last 3 weeks.

But the rate probably hovers around 2-4% depending on who gets it.

blowitupref · 26-08-2020 07:18PM

Boggles wrote: »

There has been more than 26 in hospital the last 3 weeks.

But the rate probably hovers around 2-4% depending on who gets it.

I'm sure the expectation among medical experts was to have a lot more than just 26 currently in hospital.

26-08-2020 07:20PM

Boggles wrote: »

Not really.

Hospitalization rate is what it should be given the level of infections.

ICU rates are steady given the vast majority of infections are occurring in the relatively young age bracket.

As for the virus becoming weaker, there is the grand sum of 0 scientific evidence for that.

https://www.coventrytelegraph.net/news/health/midlands-doctor-says-coronavirus-getting-18812829

lee_baby_simms · 26-08-2020 07:21PM

stephenjmcd wrote: »

Wouldn't be reading too much into that.

Nobody really had a clue what they were dealing with originally and are finding better ways to treat those in hosptial etc.

Many factors in play

I think there’s more to it than just treatment. 60-70 year olds are 20 times less likely to die of Covid in Spain now as they were in March- May.

If treatment alone could do that then we are surely out of the woods.

stephenjmcd · 26-08-2020 07:21PM

Boggles wrote: »

That figure is on confirmed cases.

If this thing had a hospitalization rate of 8% on all cases, we would be still in complete Lockdown.

We are probably finding the majority of cases at the moment.

Yes confirmed cases I never said anything about non confirmed cases.

My whole point was based on confirmed cases as was the hosptial rate.

As I said given case numbers we aren't seeing the expected numbers in hosptial

stephenjmcd · 26-08-2020 07:21PM

lee_baby_simms wrote: »

I think there’s more to it than just treatment. 60-70 year olds are 20 times less likely to die of Covid in Spain now as they were in March- May.

If treatment alone could do that then we are surely out of the woods.

oh of course age too, sorry forgot to say it in my original post.

D.Q · 26-08-2020 07:23PM

Boggles wrote: »

Not really.

Hospitalization rate is what it should be given the level of infections.

ICU rates are steady given the vast majority of infections are occurring in the relatively young age bracket.

As for the virus becoming weaker, there is the grand sum of 0 scientific evidence for that.

When this was all starting to emerge in Italy there were reports that the ICUs were filled with young people too.

That doesn't seem to have happened here thankfully.

lukas8888 · 26-08-2020 07:29PM

Phil hogan resigning

JJayoo · 26-08-2020 07:36PM

Goldengirl wrote: »

This is cruel, unnecessary and frankly untrue .
Nasty post .

The internet must be a terrifying place for you if you thought his post was bad.

Boggles · 26-08-2020 07:38PM

stephenjmcd wrote: »

Yes confirmed cases I never said anything about non confirmed cases.

My whole point was based on confirmed cases as was the hosptial rate.

As I said given case numbers we aren't seeing the expected numbers in hosptial

You are missing the point. Hospitalization rate on confirmed cases is skewed.

We are finding exponentially more cases in the past 2 months than we were in the first 3 months.

The bulk of infections took place in the first 3 months.

If we follow actual infection rates from other countries and apply it at 5%. 250,000.

At 8% that is a hospitalization rate of 20,000. Emergency care would have crashed.

Personally I think we had a mild infection rate and put the figure somewhere between 80,000 - 150,000.

So lets split the difference and say 117,000. And the actual hospitalization rate is between 2-4% on actual cases.

3% of 117,000 = 3510

There was 3,397 hospitalized so far with Covid 19.

Like I said given we are finding the majority of cases, our hospitalization rate is exactly what you would expect, maybe a little higher, but that is down to over caution and head room I imagine.

yourdeadwright · 26-08-2020 07:38PM

spookwoman wrote: »

carlow numbers wrong as well today

What's you beef, Spook women

Am I not enough for you, what do you want from me.... Names addresses, social security numbers,

Boggles · 26-08-2020 07:40PM

Deleted User wrote: »

https://www.coventrytelegraph.net/news/health/midlands-doctor-says-coronavirus-getting-18812829

That is not a scientific based study.

That is one doctors opinion.

26-08-2020 07:41PM

Sleety_Rain wrote: »

The elephant in the room is the low hospital numbers despite upswing in infections.

The next 2-4 weeks are critical, if the hospitalisation figures can be maintained at relatively low levels, there will then be a weight of evidence towards a somewhat weakened strain of COVID now circulating.
Fingers crossed we finally catch a break with this nasty disease.

Yes, government now at a loss of what to do.

Lets hope nature cuts us a break.

political analyst · 26-08-2020 07:42PM

https://www.independent.ie/irish-news/secondary-school-children-who-refuse-to-wear-masks-will-be-sent-home-says-education-minister-39478972.html

Secondary school children who refuse to wear a mask at school for reasons other than medical will be sent home, according to Education Minister Norma Foley.

Speaking on Prime Time tonight, she said that all children in secondary schools are expected to wear the masks and each school “operates by its own rules”.

“Each school operates by its own rules but the schools are aware that it is mandatory to wear the masks. And unless the child has a particular ailment or a particular issue from a medical point of view that would mean that they’re not in a position to wear the mask,” she said.

As Cora Sherlock said on Twitter, how is this constitutional?

Obviously, the judiciary can't interfere with the legislative process, but the Oireachtas still has to respect the Constitution. Judges can declare legislation unconstitutional.

Santy2015 · 26-08-2020 07:46PM

yourdeadwright wrote: »

What's you beef, Spook women

Am I not enough for you, what do you want from me.... Names addresses, social security numbers,

I’d like to know if you know in advance of any easing or strengthening of restrictions like you do the case numbers????

podgeandrodge · 26-08-2020 07:46PM

Boggles wrote: »

Like I said given we are finding the majority of cases, our hospitalization rate is exactly what you would expect, maybe a little higher, but that is down to over caution and head room I imagine.

Are we really finding the majority of cases? I had been under the impression that there could be thousands more of asymptomatic cases around - how would we know? Sorry if missing the point here.

Micky 32 · 26-08-2020 07:47PM

yourdeadwright wrote: »

What's you beef, Spook women

Am I not enough for you, what do you want from me.... Names addresses, social security numbers,

There will be a miserable cohort on here that will try to put you down on here, they might not like to see you as the star of the show because of the info you get before anyone else on here. I have seen it evident against other posters that post good info. Don’t let them get to you. I appreciate the number of corona cans you have in the shed that you reveal, thank you.

Sconsey · 26-08-2020 07:47PM

political analyst wrote: »

As Cora Sherlock said on Twitter, how is this constitutional?

Where was she when I was being forced to wear a school uniform?

Sam Russell · 26-08-2020 07:49PM

political analyst wrote: »

https://www.independent.ie/irish-news/secondary-school-children-who-refuse-to-wear-masks-will-be-sent-home-says-education-minister-39478972.html

As Cora Sherlock said on Twitter, how is this constitutional?

Obviously, the judiciary can't interfere with the legislative process, but the Oireachtas still has to respect the Constitution. Judges can declare legislation unconstitutional.

How do rules about school uniform work out? Pupils are required to comply to these rules - or could be sent home/excluded. Could masks not be considered 'school uniform'?

I think the constitution has no role in this matter - it is a public health matter.

spookwoman · 26-08-2020 07:49PM

yourdeadwright wrote: »

What's you beef, Spook women

Am I not enough for you, what do you want from me.... Names addresses, social security numbers,

wtf I just said you are not always right, which is correct. What do you want a gold star for releasing some numbers early :rolleyes:

I'd rather have correct data late than incorrect data early.

owlbethere · 26-08-2020 07:52PM

political analyst wrote: »

https://www.independent.ie/irish-news/secondary-school-children-who-refuse-to-wear-masks-will-be-sent-home-says-education-minister-39478972.html

As Cora Sherlock said on Twitter, how is this constitutional?

Obviously, the judiciary can't interfere with the legislative process, but the Oireachtas still has to respect the Constitution. Judges can declare legislation unconstitutional.

I would be somewhat in favour of masks in indoor settings where social distancing is hard to maintain but this seems to be very steep. Like how are masks in schools going to work? Is there still a storage of the surgical masks? Do they have to be left for the medical professionals? Fabric masks are not going to work in schools and in a typical school day. A student will need to have at least 3 masks per day to change for eg after morning break and after lunch. Washing and drying them for the next day won't be possible like with Irish weather. So students will need at least 6 fabric masks in circulation and 6 would be on the low side because of school public transport in the morning and in the evening. They might want to go to the shop after school too so that's another mask. The storing and treating of masks will also have to come into play. They will have to be stored in zip lock bags and a bag for each mask and maybe have another bag for used masks. My god. It's going to be a pack of **** all around for the students, teachers and parents who have to wash laundry too.

Boggles · 26-08-2020 07:54PM

podgeandrodge wrote: »

Are we really finding the majority of cases? I had been under the impression that there could be thousands more of asymptomatic cases around - how would we know? Sorry if missing the point here.

We are finding asymptomatic cases.

In a family of 10, 4 may be asymptomatic but the other 6 will have symptoms, they will all be tested.

26-08-2020 07:56PM

Boggles wrote: »

That is not a scientific based study.

That is one doctors opinion.

Among a growing many.

Gruffalux · 26-08-2020 07:58PM

Boggles wrote: »

You are missing the point. Hospitalization rate on confirmed cases is skewed.

We are finding exponentially more cases in the past 2 months than we were in the first 3 months.

The bulk of infections took place in the first 3 months.

If we follow actual infection rates from other countries and apply it at 5%. 250,000.

At 8% that is a hospitalization rate of 20,000. Emergency care would have crashed.

Personally I think we had a mild infection rate and put the figure somewhere between 80,000 - 150,000.

So lets split the difference and say 117,000. And the actual hospitalization rate is between 2-4% on actual cases.

3% of 117,000 = 3510

There was 3,397 hospitalized so far with Covid 19.

Like I said given we are finding the majority of cases, our hospitalization rate is exactly what you would expect, maybe a little higher, but that is down to over caution and head room I imagine.

I am inclined towards this kind of extrapolation of numbers going backwards too. At 117000 it would mean that we were finding 4 times fewer cases at early stage of year. So at peak levels we would in reality have had about 3000 cases per day, maybe more. Which puts 200 ish in perspective at a time (now) when good testing systems mean we are likely finding most cases. Even if we are finding only half now 300 to 400 is a heck of a lot less than 3000 or even 4000.

Only fly in the ointment would be that an infection rate of 2.4% (to get about 117000 cases) would mean we got off unusually lightly compared to most places. Except NZ or Australia for example. Seems odd given how connected we were travel wise.

yourdeadwright · 26-08-2020 07:58PM

spookwoman wrote: »

wtf I just said you are not always right, which is correct. What do you want a gold star for releasing some numbers early :rolleyes:

I'd rather have correct data late than incorrect data early.

Incorrect I'm always right, don't you dare test me, (I'm kidding)
The info its self can change as the day goes on hence the release to the public in the evening

Each to there own some like the early info so I'll continue for as long as possible

Santy2015 · 26-08-2020 07:59PM

yourdeadwright wrote: »

Incorrect I'm always right, don't you dare test me, (I'm kidding)
The info its self can change as the day goes on hence the release to the public in the evening

Each to there own some like the early info so I'll continue for as long as possible

That’s the job!

yourdeadwright · 26-08-2020 08:00PM

Micky 32 wrote: »

There will be a miserable cohort on here that will try to put you down on here, they might not like to see you as the star of the show because of the info you get before anyone else on here. I have seen it evident against other posters that post good info. Don’t let them get to you. I appreciate the number of corona cans you have in the shed that you reveal, thank you.

That's life.,
Sure I'm waiting like the rest to see if the released figures are the same

Covid 19 Part XXII-30,360 in ROI(1,781 deaths) 8,035 in NI (568 deaths)(10/09)Read OP

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