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Relaxation of Restrictions, Part V - **Read OP for Mod Warnings**

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Comments

  • #3062
    hmmm
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 11,203 ✭✭✭✭hmmm


    Deleted User wrote: »
    It is not for the vast majority of us though. That is a fact that is simple to see.
    It doesn't matter if you believe that, the majority of people don't. You're not going to convince them otherwise, particularly when some of your friends here start calling them ignorant or "sheeple".

    The only way out of this is when people feel that the virus is under control, and that happens when the numbers getting the virus are suppressed. If you want to see restrictions relaxed, help get the numbers down. Telling people to ignore the burning building behind you like Leslie Nielsen is a waste of time.


  • #3063
    Assetbacked
    Closed Accounts Posts: 2,969 ✭✭✭Assetbacked


    Okay, here then. The data sources that I monitor constantly;

    For hospitalisations and ICU figures;
    https://covid19ireland-geohive.hub.arcgis.com/

    Overall breakdown of cases in Ireland between ages showing hospitalisations, deaths etc. Very informative;
    https://www.hpsc.ie/a-z/respiratory/coronavirus/novelcoronavirus/casesinireland/epidemiologyofcovid-19inireland/

    "2nd wave" monitoring (currently we are in the second wave it appears in Europe);
    https://ig.ft.com/coronavirus-chart/?areas=eur&areas=usa&areas=bra&areas=gbr&areasRegional=usny&areasRegional=usca&areasRegional=usfl&areasRegional=ustx&cumulative=0&logScale=1&perMillion=0&values=deaths

    Based on all of the above, it is very clear that it is not very harmful in general; is moderately harmful to those over 70, negligible to the under 45s and new "surges" had not resulted in new deaths.


  • #3064
    hmmm
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 11,203 ✭✭✭✭hmmm


    Assetbacked wrote: »
    Based on all of the above, it is very clear that it is not very harmful in general; is moderately harmful to those over 70, negligible to the under 45s and new "surges" had not resulted in new deaths.
    Based on your username, I really hope you aren't investing in markets based on how you misinterpret data.

    Ireland's data is skewed through lockdowns preventing the virus from spreading widely, and the fact that most of our deaths occurred in nursing homes. You can't draw any conclusion on how "harmful" Covid is based on a very limited set of data.

    If we had let a million people get the virus, and then drew conclusions, that would be useful data.


  • #3065
    MadYaker
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 12,343 ✭✭✭✭MadYaker


    Assetbacked wrote: »
    Okay, here then. The data sources that I monitor constantly;

    For hospitalisations and ICU figures;
    https://covid19ireland-geohive.hub.arcgis.com/

    Overall breakdown of cases in Ireland between ages showing hospitalisations, deaths etc. Very informative;
    https://www.hpsc.ie/a-z/respiratory/coronavirus/novelcoronavirus/casesinireland/epidemiologyofcovid-19inireland/

    "2nd wave" monitoring (currently we are in the second wave it appears in Europe);
    https://ig.ft.com/coronavirus-chart/?areas=eur&areas=usa&areas=bra&areas=gbr&areasRegional=usny&areasRegional=usca&areasRegional=usfl&areasRegional=ustx&cumulative=0&logScale=1&perMillion=0&values=deaths

    Based on all of the above, it is very clear that it is not very harmful in general; is moderately harmful to those over 70, negligible to the under 45s and new "surges" had not resulted in new deaths.

    HSE also publish daily operations updates here. Each one is about a 16 page PDF with quite a lot of detail. https://www.hse.ie/eng/services/news/newsfeatures/covid19-updates/

    If scroll half way down the page and click on "Coronavirus daily operations updates" you get a drop down menu showing them all for each day.


  • #3066
    [Deleted User]
    Posts: 4,727 ✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    hmmm wrote: »
    It doesn't matter if you believe that, the majority of people don't. You're not going to convince them otherwise, particularly when some of your friends here start calling them ignorant or "sheeple".

    The only way out of this is when people feel that the virus is under control, and that happens when the numbers getting the virus are suppressed. If you want to see restrictions relaxed, help get the numbers down.

    Been there and done that.
    We had 4 new cases and 0 deaths announced at one point. We didn't open up.
    Even with 0 and 0, I still doubt we'd have opened up.

    Locking down and getting numbers low doesn't mean a thing. The virus will still be here.

    Even a vaccine won't completely eradicate it.
    People have to accept the low risk and carry on.

    We could start now. But likely the schools reopening will contribute to an increase in cases, we'll sh*t the bed and lockdown again, and the economy will be close to collapsing.

    Be interesting to see whether they come after us in this budget over try to hold off to keep compliance up.


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  • #3067
    average_runner
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 12,881 ✭✭✭✭average_runner


    i_surge wrote: »
    For now.

    Do you think you have some perceptual powers that the doctors and epidemiologists don't? They can see the numbers just as well as you but they know enough about viruses to know it doesn't support your thirst for pints or whatever it is you are after just yet. The ****er multiplies, fast, if you let it.

    You filter the data with bias and misunderstanding to get to your conclusion. They filter it with knowledge and experience.




    But a national lockdown might lower the numbers, what happens when we open up again? Some stage we got to learn to move on


  • #3068
    i_surge
    Closed Accounts Posts: 1,093 ✭✭✭i_surge


    average_runner wrote: »
    But a national lockdown might lower the numbers, what happens when we open up again? Some stage we got to learn to move on

    Move on to what? We are going nowhere fast. You can only thread water for so long.

    Get to controlled cases, control the border logically, track trace isolate and support any new ones. If anything it buys time for medical discovery.

    Anyway look at Iceland they have been totally fine for months.


  • #3069
    hmmm
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 11,203 ✭✭✭✭hmmm


    Deleted User wrote: »
    Been there and done that.
    We had 4 new cases and 0 deaths announced at one point. We didn't open up.
    You can't open up based on daily numbers. We'd be yoyoing all over the place with everything opened one day and shut the next. You can open up based on the trend.

    We did that with the phased approach to re-opening. Unfortunately in this phase, the trend appears to have turned and we have had to go back a bit.


  • #3070
    [Deleted User]
    Posts: 4,727 ✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    hmmm wrote: »
    You can't open up based on daily numbers. We'd be yoyoing all over the place with everything opened one day and shut the next. You can open up based on the trend.

    We did that with the phased approach to re-opening. Unfortunately in this phase, the trend appears to have turned and we have had to go back a bit.

    We had weeks and weeks with less than 20 cases a day and never fully opened. I don't see what would be different now.

    They are talking about national lockdown again when we have 4 in ICU.

    This conservative approach will eventually see everything burn to the ground. At least then we will have to do something.


  • #3071
    hmmm
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 11,203 ✭✭✭✭hmmm


    Deleted User wrote: »
    We had weeks and weeks with less than 20 cases a day and never fully opened. I don't see what would be different now.

    They are talking about national lockdown again when we have 4 in ICU.

    This conservative approach will eventually see everything burn to the ground. At least then we will have to do something.
    We were reopening while cases were falling. Now cases are beginning to rise. You know that it takes weeks after people get the virus to have to enter ICU, do you really think the number of ICU cases is a convincing argument for continuing to reopen?


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  • #3072
    topper75
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,942 ✭✭✭topper75


    i_surge wrote: »
    Do you think you have some perceptual powers that the doctors and epidemiologists don't? ...

    They are not a 'borg' creature with one mind. Even the country policy approaches within the EU vary and yet all driven by medical advice.

    Has echoes of 'following the science'. That phrase has no more use than being something for politicians to hide behind.

    Personally I don't take diktats from anyone regardless of qualification. You want me to do something - fine, but give me the reason and thought process and then I'll freely decide. I would not claim my knowledge to equal to theirs, but powers of reason - definitely.


  • #3073
    [Deleted User]
    Posts: 4,727 ✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    hmmm wrote: »
    We were reopening while cases were falling. Now cases are beginning to rise. You know that it takes weeks after people get the virus to have to enter ICU, do you really think the number of ICU cases is a convincing argument for continuing to reopen?

    Been hearing that for weeks now.
    Hospitalisations will increase soon, ICU will increase soon, bodies will start piling up...

    It’s not happening though. Meanwhile the whole country remains on pause for the tiny minority who may die with Covid, and will likely die regardless very soon.


  • #3074
    i_surge
    Closed Accounts Posts: 1,093 ✭✭✭i_surge


    topper75 wrote: »
    They are not a 'borg' creature with one mind. Even the country policy approaches within the EU vary and yet all driven by medical advice.

    Has echoes of 'following the science'. That phrase has no more use than being something for politicians to hide behind.

    Personally I don't take diktats from anyone regardless of qualification. You want me to do something - fine, but give me the reason and thought process and then I'll freely decide. I would not claim my knowledge to equal to theirs, but powers of reason - definitely.

    Oh I agree with you on that but the broad consensus is going to be 10 times more considered than JD and Coke from boards.ie

    It is not even about "follow the science", there is often a small bit of hysteria there particular on climate change when there are unknowns but in this case just follow the best examples.

    Are we preprogramed to fail in this country or something? We already have the recipe for success from other countries and we have seen which approaches were atrocious. Mimic success and learn from the mistakes of others. It couldn't be simpler.


  • #3075
    hmmm
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 11,203 ✭✭✭✭hmmm


    Deleted User wrote: »
    Been hearing that for weeks now.
    Hospitalisations will increase soon, ICU will increase soon, bodies will start piling up...
    We've been hearing it since the clusters emerged in the LOK counties, you're exaggerating. Prior to that we had been reopening.

    Managing Covid is like trying to pilot a large cruise ship. You have to see problems a long way out and make corrective actions, you can't wait until you're nearly run aground to change course.


  • #3076
    Assetbacked
    Closed Accounts Posts: 2,969 ✭✭✭Assetbacked


    hmmm wrote: »
    Based on your username, I really hope you aren't investing in markets based on how you misinterpret data.

    Ireland's data is skewed through lockdowns preventing the virus from spreading widely, and the fact that most of our deaths occurred in nursing homes. You can't draw any conclusion on how "harmful" Covid is based on a very limited set of data.

    If we had let a million people get the virus, and then drew conclusions, that would be useful data.

    I'll use Italy then, 2% case fatality rate under the age of 70 (this is extremely conservative as it is based on positives recorded and on deaths where the person had covid, not that they died from covid) and they essentially let it run riot, losing control and likely achieving the relevant herd immunity. In Ireland we are spreading out our infections in order to treat those that need it. At least, that is what we should be doing but we are too focused on lockdown to try to achieve the impossible (ie zero covid cases) as there is absolutely no flexibility for fear of accountability or a lack of quality people in public service.

    You cannot go to your local pub to get a drink, cannot stand outside by a pitch and watch a match and there is talk of allowing the Gardai into your home if you had 8 people sitting at the dinner table. It is disturbing what is happening here and I get the feeling there are those in authority on a power trip with what they're getting away with, including NPHET.

    On the markets, the value is in the industries obliterated by covid like travel and tourism, some REITs up until a couple weeks ago though maybe there is still some value.


  • #3077
    _Kaiser_
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 29,254 ✭✭✭✭_Kaiser_


    Another day, no new deaths, minimal ICU cases ... But ya, let's start talking up another national lockdown :rolleyes:


  • #3078
    i_surge
    Closed Accounts Posts: 1,093 ✭✭✭i_surge


    Assetbacked wrote: »
    I'll use Italy then, 2% case fatality rate under the age of 70 and they essentially let it run riot, losing control and likely achieving the relevant herd immunity. In Ireland we are spreading out our infections in order to treat those that need it. At least, that is what we should be doing but we are too focused on lockdown to try to achieve the impossible (ie zero covid cases) as there is absolutely no flexibility for fear of accountability or a lack of quality people in public service.

    You cannot go to your local pub to get a drink, cannot stand outside by a pitch and watch a match and there is talk of allowing the Gardai into your home if you had 8 people sitting at the dinner table. It is disturbing what is happening here and I get the feeling there are those in authority on a power trip with what they're getting away with, including NPHET.

    On the markets, the value is in the industries obliterated by covid like travel and tourism, some REITs up until a couple weeks ago though maybe there is still some value.

    You are raving, if they weren't trying to balance health and the economy they wouldn't be opening schools.

    A zero covid approach, chance would be a fine thing but they are not doing that.


  • #3079
    Assetbacked
    Closed Accounts Posts: 2,969 ✭✭✭Assetbacked


    _Kaiser_ wrote: »
    Another day, no new deaths, minimal ICU cases ... But ya, let's start talking up another national lockdown :rolleyes:

    More proof of a media narrative to create fear; it is not the top story on IT, it is a few stories down. Of course it is as it isn't scary enough.


  • #3080
    i_surge
    Closed Accounts Posts: 1,093 ✭✭✭i_surge


    Assetbacked wrote: »
    More proof of a media narrative to create fear; it is not the top story on IT, it is a few stories down. Of course it is as it isn't scary enough.

    Anyone who freely uses the word narrative suffers from one, in my experience.


  • #3081
    Assetbacked
    Closed Accounts Posts: 2,969 ✭✭✭Assetbacked


    i_surge wrote: »
    You are raving, if they weren't trying to balance health and the economy they wouldn't be opening schools.

    A zero covid approach, chance would be a fine thing but they are not doing that.

    Exactly, they are not balancing the economy, just focusing on the health. Schools don't contribute to the economy, in the long run they do but not right now. It is a negligible risk group (ie kids of school going age) that are allowed back to normal first. What about all the office workers who are going back and need to get public transport from mid-September? Cafes, shops, public transport will be jammed with queues of people trying to get in and on. The government has made no effort to ease the economy back into action, in fact even going back a step with respect to offices by telling employers to only allow workers in if absolutely essential. There's another month of pandemic supports needed to keep workers out of action and to limit tax revenue, needlessly. You just have to go to another EU country to see how ridiculously OTT we are here.


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  • #3082
    Assetbacked
    Closed Accounts Posts: 2,969 ✭✭✭Assetbacked


    i_surge wrote: »
    Anyone who freely uses the word narrative suffers from one, in my experience.

    You are the one that said yours suffering from the covid back and forth discussion the previous page of thread, perhaps stop posting your thoughts and just stick to the data rather than the accompanying narratives and bias?


  • #3083
    i_surge
    Closed Accounts Posts: 1,093 ✭✭✭i_surge


    Assetbacked wrote: »
    Exactly, they are not balancing the economy, just focusing on the health. Schools don't contribute to the economy, in the long run they do but not right now. It is a negligible risk group (ie kids of school going age) that are allowed back to normal first. What about all the office workers who are going back and need to get public transport from mid-September? Cafes, shops, public transport will be jammed with queues of people trying to get in and on. The government has made no effort to ease the economy back into action, in fact even going back a step with respect to offices by telling employers to only allow workers in if absolutely essential. There's another month of pandemic supports needed to keep workers out of action and to limit tax revenue, needlessly. You just have to go to another EU country to see how ridiculously OTT we are here.

    Kids to school enables parents to go back to work, aka an economic consideration. Join the dots.

    Low consumer sentiment as long the virus is out there.

    You are hoping to pull a rabbit out of a hat.


  • #3084
    _Kaiser_
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 29,254 ✭✭✭✭_Kaiser_


    The schools is about politics. The new Government committed to reopening them on time and with everything else that's happened in the last 6ish weeks, Micheal Martin badly needs a win at this point.

    Therefore the rules are being changed accordingly (school buses, sniffles in schools) to suit that objective. Martin and FF are praying it'll go well because if it doesn't, he may find his dream of being Taoiseach coming to an abrupt end.


  • #3085
    Lundstram
    Closed Accounts Posts: 2,129 ✭✭✭Lundstram


    Announcing day after day of no deaths is fast becoming an after thought for news outlets. Not even mentioned in headlines. Just case numbers matter now.

    All about the scaremongering narrative while our economy slowly continues to deteriorate. 200k still collecting the PUP.


  • #3086
    [Deleted User]
    Posts: 4,727 ✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    _Kaiser_ wrote: »
    Another day, no new deaths, minimal ICU cases ... But ya, let's start talking up another national lockdown :rolleyes:

    Disgraceful!!!


  • #3087
    hmmm
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 11,203 ✭✭✭✭hmmm


    _Kaiser_ wrote: »
    The schools is about politics. The new Government committed to reopening them on time and with everything else that's happened in the last 6ish weeks, Micheal Martin badly needs a win at this point.
    Re-opening schools is a national priority. If you haven't figured that out yourself, I'm not going to able to convince you.


  • #3088
    mick087
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,122 ✭✭✭mick087


    Lundstram wrote: »
    Announcing day after day of no deaths is fast becoming an after thought for news outlets. Not even mentioned in headlines. Just case numbers matter now.

    All about the scaremongering narrative while our economy slowly continues to deteriorate. 200k still collecting the PUP.


    I think its more to do with younger people catching Covid and the older people are being for sensible.
    I say this because this is what i see.
    Im not sure about this this scaremongering stuff but i wouldnt write it off.


  • #3089
    MadYaker
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 12,343 ✭✭✭✭MadYaker


    I'll never understand why some people are so obsessed with the media "scaremongering". Everyone just ignores that sh!te. They'll say whatever they think will get advertising revenue. Just ignore it.

    Reopening schools isn't about politics. It has to happen, I personally think it's going to be a disaster but we'll press on regardless.


  • #3090
    lee_baby_simms
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,497 ✭✭✭lee_baby_simms


    _Kaiser_ wrote: »
    Another day, no new deaths, minimal ICU cases ... But ya, let's start talking up another national lockdown :rolleyes:

    You just don’t get it do you? When will the penny drop with you people.

    It’s simple. Only young and healthy people are getting it now. Owing to 100% public compliance of the advice of NPHET we’ve essentially built an invisible force field around all the at risk people regardless of age. It’s working remarkably well.

    Spain, France, New York, Netherlands, Italy to name a few are doing the exact same thing resulting in similar case/ICU ratios.

    But just wait. Two weeks from now will be Armageddon!!!


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  • #3091
    Micky 32
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,627 ✭✭✭Micky 32


    i_surge wrote: »
    Some people who survived this "mild" illness have lost limbs from sepsis.

    Oh the losing of the limbs card. I know quite a few people who have lost body parts, especially due to diabetes. I think i’d worry more about getting diabetes than covid if i was neurotic about losing limbs.


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