Relaxation of Restrictions, Part V - **Read OP for Mod Warnings**

dalyboy wrote: »

Something wrong with them is an understatement. As members of the science profession it’s incredible how they are ignoring evidence. We have already tested our variables (scientifically speaking) by our lockdown down in March.

We reopened (because it was 100% required to salvage our decimated economy) in June. .......... numbers of infections went up again once this reopening occurred.

What was the evidence that the 1st lockdown was a success ? ? ? Nothing

So these “brilliant” scientists want us to repeat the same exercise even though they see the evidence of futility of our March lockdown and the next result will be no different.

If government bows to the pressure of these extremists.... sorry scientists then we are economically barron for not years but decades to come. God help our future generation.

No evidence? Ha ha yeah ok

Any chance you might have a stab at the question all your colleagues avoided?

dalyboy wrote: »

I am only online now and it’s too late to trawl looking for your question. Ask me now and I’ll have a stab at it . Hope it’s not a trick or loaded question . It’s very late. I’m waiting ... go for it

No it is straight up.

I'm asking your thoughts on economic recovery if we follow your opinion. Reopen things, lock down was unjust, no masks and so on.

Considering the whole world is economically affected, how does it suddenly solve our problem? Do you think everyone will decide to do a Dalyboy and live free and easy with no regard for their own safety or their family and just start living it up? Consumer confidence won't return to the level that is good for business until things are fixed as I see it.

The economy has contracted, there are knockon effects of that, debts, arrears, more saving for what might come, into a new phase of the credit cycle. Some have been able to save well during lockdown, many have not.

What are your thoughts? Where does the money come from?

And going on what you said, how has the economy fared since June?

FintanMcluskey wrote: »

Ah come on, the science has changed since March, the vulnerable are specific and those not residing in nursing homes are not vulnerable

That doesn't answer the question.

dalyboy wrote: »

Ok. Thanks for the question.

I’ll break it down a bit for you.

Considering the whole world is economically affected, how does it suddenly solve our problem? . Ok , 2 options of action available to us. Fight or flight. I pick fight. If the entire world is struggling so be it. We plough on.

Do you think everyone will decide to do a Dalyboy and live free and easy with no regard for their own safety or their family and just start living it up
Ok, this question is hardly as you said in your opening of this reply “straight up” , I never said I disregarded mine or my families safety so you can have your strawman back (Mind now as it’s soggy, I’ve just urinated on it)

Considering the whole world is economically affected, how does it suddenly solve our problem? Do you think everyone will decide to do a Dalyboy and live free and easy with no regard for their own safety or their family and just start living it up? Consumer confidence won't return to the level that is good for business until things are fixed as I see it.

The economy has contracted, there are knockon effects of that, debts, arrears, more saving for what might come, into a new phase of the credit cycle. Some have been able to save well during lockdown, many have not.

What are your thoughts? Where does the money come from?
Well I know if we lock down further we add to this pile of debt you yourself have admitted to. If we are managing to stay afloat at the moment it’s as good as we can expect for now. SME’s are struggling but managing JUST. What you have been urging is that these same businesses set fire to what ever semblance of hope of riding this crap situation out. I’m aware you think that it can be fixed by locking down for 3,4,5 weeks but that’s just it. The proof is that once we reopen again we are back to infection rate increases again. It’s a fantasy you are in. All angles of this fantasy is screwed up. Feasibility of execution is nonexistent (borders WILL NOT be closed) and the reopening will lead us to the same place we are in.
This is a circular reasoning fallacy dictionary definition right here with you.
I’ve said it before to you in other posts that I think your heart is in the right place from a Nobel standpoint but please accept the reality ..... none of this idea makes any sense.

Semblance of hope is not good enough.

Where is the recovery? And the money? You know to employ staff, once the government stops paying. Or if they don't stop paying your debt spral continues. Not that simple.

How about the risk of this dragging out and they can only hang on so long, then their staff have no money either and the spiral continues.

dalyboy wrote: »

And how the hell does your so called solution fix any of these problems outlined here ?

By killing off the source of them

From independentsage.co.uk

At the final Downing Street press conference on 23 June the Chief Medical Officer (CMO) for
England painted a pessimistic picture of continuing levels of COVID-19 deaths and new
infections.
“I would be surprised and delighted if we weren't in this current situation through
the winter and into next spring. I think then let’s regroup and work out where we
are. But I expect there to be a significant amount of coronavirus circulating at least
until that time”
Prof Chris Whitty, CMO England, Downing Street press conference. 23 June.
Were the levels of deaths in the week leading up to Chris Whitty’s words to continue, that
would amount to many thousands of deaths over the next nine months. It is the view of
Independent SAGE that a death toll from COVID-19 of this magnitude is not only
preventable but is absolutely unacceptable.
Independent SAGE believes that the UK government must fundamentally change its
approach and we propose a new overarching strategic objective of achieving a Zero COVID
UK, i.e. the elimination of the virus from the UK. We believe this should be informed by
science and debated in public, and a proper coordinated strategy for its achievement
developed with the public.

KEY POINTS
● The prospect of many thousands of further deaths from COVID-19 over the next nine
months is unacceptable
● The UK government must propose and share with the public a strategic plan on how
the pandemic is going to be managed in the next 12 months and of how the various
measures against the pandemic fit together in an integrated plan.
● Independent SAGE believes that this strategy should have as its prime objective the
achievement of a Zero COVID Britain and Ireland
● It will require the government in Whitehall to replace their failing NHS Test and
Trace System with a fully-fledged and locally controlled system of Find, Test, Trace,
Isolate, Support (FTTIS)
● The Republic of Ireland, Scotland and Northern Ireland already have very few deaths
and very small numbers of new positive cases. They have the virus under control and
are well placed to achieve elimination of the virus
● England and Wales will need to make the necessary efforts as soon as possible to
achieve the same position
● Achieving elimination would allow all social distancing measures to be lifted, schools
to be fully open, the hospitality and entertainment industries to reopen fully,
revitalisation of the economy and a sense of much needed normality for the
population.


The United Kingdom stands at a crucial point in its efforts to deal with the COVID-19
pandemic. What has been achieved so far is a moderate level of control of the pandemic in
some parts of the UK but only limited control in most of England. The death toll has been
one of the highest in the world and continues to grow. Independent SAGE believes that we
can change that trajectory. We believe that a clear strategy based on proven public health
principles is now required to see us through the next 9 to 12 months.
Substantial work is going on in many centres around the world to develop and test an
effective vaccine for the COVID-19 virus. Simultaneously a large number of clinical trials are
being undertaken with the aim of developing effective clinical treatment for patients with
severe and potentially fatal infections. Unfortunately, there is no guarantee that either of
these major strands of clinical research will provide a ‘silver bullet’ solution to the epidemic.
Even under the most optimistic estimates for when a vaccine will become available, it is
unlikely to provide “sterilising immunity” and in any case is very unlikely to be provided to
all individuals in the UK within the next year. In addition, those treatments which have
shown efficacy will probably be limited to hospitalised patients and provide only partial
benefit at best. There will remain a large number of survivors left with longer term
sequelae, creating additional burden on an NHS which already has a difficult task in
catching up with backlogs in routine care.
In any conceivable case, the only rational way forward is to work on the basis that we need
to bring the epidemic rapidly and successfully under control across the whole of Ireland and
Britain or otherwise face a continuing toll of avoidable deaths and serious illness.
The success of other countries such as New Zealand, Australia, Iceland and South Korea in
bringing the coronavirus under control is remarkable. What Britain and Ireland have in
common with these three countries is that they are islands (or in the case of South Korea, a
virtual island). As we know only too well, it is travel that has spread the virus across the
world and brought it to our shores. Were Britain and Ireland willing, and able, to take
advantage of being islands, it would greatly help in defeating the virus and returning our
lives and our economy to something like normality.

Control
Reduction of the number of people currently infected with the disease to a low level and
the capacity to maintain that control indefinitely (e.g. Germany, China).*

Elimination
Reduction to zero new infections spread among people living in a country and the presence
of the measures necessary to prevent or deal with imported cases and associated spread
from new arrivals (e.g. New Zealand).

Eradication
Permanent reduction to zero worldwide incidence of infection (as has been achieved with
smallpox and almost with polio through mass vaccination programmes).

*Independent SAGE would suggest that a seven day rolling average of one new case per
million population per day could represent ‘control’ in Scotland, Wales, Northern Ireland
and the regions of England.
Independent SAGE has seen no evidence that the government has a considered strategy for
the next stages of handling the pandemic in the UK. It is clear that the government has
consistently failed to heed broad-based scientific advice, including that from the World
Health Organization and the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control, such as
large scale testing with test results available within 24 hours or less, a strong Find, Test,
Trace, Isolate and Support system to break chains of transmission and robust and continued
public health messaging campaigns to reiterate the importance of personal protective
behaviours (e.g. hand washing, social distancing, avoiding crowded spaces, wearing a face
covering where you cannot avoid such spaces). Similarly, the government does not appear
to have learned from the experiences of other countries that have been successful in
achieving elimination or near elimination of the infection.
We fear that the government has given up trying to control the pandemic further and is
hoping that by reacting to local outbreaks as and when they happen (e.g. the current
Leicester lockdown), it can keep levels of infection at what they regard as a ‘manageable
level’ (i.e their current quite high but not catastrophic levels). Independent SAGE believes
that this is not acceptable, that we should not give up. Thousands of lives could be saved
over the next year by a renewed effort to further suppress the virus.
The UK strategy should have at its heart a commitment to fully control the disease and to
move towards elimination as soon as possible. The government must share that strategy
with the public and seek their support and assistance in seeing it implemented. The four
countries of the UK are not in the same position with regard to the pandemic and each part
of the UK should develop its own programme of action in keeping with an overall goal of
elimination of the virus, which is the achievement of a ‘Zero COVID UK’.

The planks of this strategy to achieve a Zero COVID UK should be to:
● Fully develop community-based and locally led Find, Test, Trace, Isolate, Support
(FTTIS) programmes with expanded local laboratory provision, involvement of local
public sector organisations and provision of all the resources necessary to enable
adherence to the regulations on notification of infectious disease
● Restrict loosening of lockdown measures in any part of the UK until control of the
outbreak has been achieved in that country
● Put in place well designed and scientifically based plans to act swiftly to contain and
suppress completely and localise flare-ups in COVID-19 infections. Such plans to be
exercised in simulation and well understood by the public before they have cause to
be put into effect and implemented with full engagement with the communities
affected
● Restrict incoming or outgoing personal travel internationally and within Britain and
Ireland to the extent necessary to maintain control of the epidemic and, in particular
to ensure effective isolation of incoming passengers.
4
● Combine all these measures with a systematic public information campaign stressing
that things are not ‘back to normal’ yet, that premature removal of restrictions in
the midst of a deadly pandemic threatens to squander all the sacrifices of lockdown
and that strict compliance with restrictions now will make a full return to normality
come sooner. The public messaging must be done in a culturally acceptable manner
to reach all communities especially those that have been disproportionately affected
such as the deprived and ethnic minority populations.
In Scotland and Northern Ireland (and also in the Republic of Ireland) both the numbers of
deaths and the numbers of newly positive cases are very low. Both Scotland and Northern
Ireland should continue to increase their efforts until control is assured and there is, in
effect, a Zero COVID Scotland and a Zero COVID island of Ireland. In the case of Northern
Ireland, an all-island approach to the pandemic should immediately be adopted using the
Memorandum of Understanding already in place with the Republic of Ireland. As Scotland
and the island of Ireland achieve full control, travel restrictions between them should be
reconsidered alongside normalisation of social and economic activity.
It seems sensible that travel restrictions should either be instituted on public health grounds
between England (and Wales) and Ireland and Scotland, or instituted if they are not already
in operation. The Republic of Ireland has already instituted requirements arriving directly
from Britain.

The achievement of a zero COVID Britain and Ireland will require the cooperation of the UK
government in Westminster, the Scottish Government, the Welsh Government, the
Northern Ireland Executive and, importantly, the Irish Government. The advantages would
be manifest and wide-ranging, including the ability to lift all social distancing restrictions,
revitalise economies, fully reopen all educational establishments and work towards
unrestricted travel arrangements with similar Zero COVID countries.
If the UK government is not prepared to accept this advice, based as it is on the best
scientific understanding of the pandemic, it must (as a matter of urgency) outline its
strategic plan for the rest of the period of this pandemic and the analysis and advice upon
which such a plan is based.