Relaxation of Restrictions, Part V - Read OP for Mod Warnings

FintanMcluskey · 23-08-2020 01:46AM

Deleted User wrote: »

Been saying all week that the tide is turning. The protests today are visible evidence of that.

The mood has almost certainly turned.

Can see it all over the media comment sections on other site's

Ha Long Bay · 23-08-2020 02:00AM

FintanMcluskey wrote: »

The mood has almost certainly turned.

Can see it all over the media comment sections on other site's

Can you provide something to to backup your post about Ireland being a police state?

I'm seeing all over the media comments that you can't.

walus · 23-08-2020 10:19AM

Another interesting perspective on overestimating the actual risks with regard to Covid: https://youtu.be/rMWdPRhu_p8

I suppose the government knows about how to deal with the current “pandemic” as much as say a taxi driver. As neither had to deal with a black swan event such as this and so no decision can be drawn upon prior experience. The difference is that a taxi driver knows that he knows nothing about it, while the government think they know enough to deal with it. That is why we are in such a mess.

In situations like this the so called experts are not even as good as a crowd of taxi drivers. Wisdom of the crowd beats the wisdom of the experts in complex situations any day.

MadYaker · 23-08-2020 10:38AM

Deleted User wrote: »

Been saying all week that the tide is turning. The protests today are visible evidence of that.

I don’t necessarily 100% agree with the protests and the people running it. But it’s inevitable. And more support will grow from here on.

Another lockdown is pointless now. It won’t be obeyed.

The will of the people is gone.
This current government have failed miserably.

New strategies are needed that will actually allow us to LIVE with the virus, not just survive. Accepting a certain level of cases and deaths is part of that.

You've been saying the exact same thing for months

MadYaker · 23-08-2020 10:40AM

walus wrote: »

Another interesting perspective on overestimating the actual risks with regard to Covid: https://youtu.be/rMWdPRhu_p8

I suppose the government knows about how to deal with the current “pandemic” as much as say a taxi driver. As neither had to deal with a black swan event such as this and so no decision can be drawn upon prior experience. The difference is that a taxi driver knows that he knows nothing about it, while the government think they know enough to deal with it. That is why we are in such a mess.

In situations like this the so called experts are just as good as a crowd of taxi drivers. Wisdom of the crowd beats the wisdom of the experts in complex situations any day.

If a member of your family needed an operation would you do it yourself?

niallo27 · 23-08-2020 10:45AM

MadYaker wrote: »

If a member of your family needed an operation would you do it yourself?

Would you let your local politician do the operation.

Penfailed · 23-08-2020 10:45AM

walus wrote: »

In situations like this the so called experts are not even as good as a crowd of taxi drivers. Wisdom of the crowd beats the wisdom of the experts in complex situations any day.

Nope.

walus · 23-08-2020 10:49AM

MadYaker wrote: »

If a member of your family needed an operation would you do it yourself?

Of course not, I would go to an expert in the field with 1000+ similar operations on his/her track record. The current Covid situation is unprecedented and therefore one should not rely solely on “expert” knowledge as such knowledge is highly questionable. These guys did not gave the prior experience with highly complex and continuously developing scenarios such as the one we are facing now.

Expert knowledge is useful for some situations, static and predictable systems/problems. Relying on that for dynamic and exponential systems is often recipe for disaster.

odyssey06 · 23-08-2020 10:52AM

walus wrote: »

Another interesting perspective on overestimating the actual risks with regard to Covid: https://youtu.be/rMWdPRhu_p8
I suppose the government knows about how to deal with the current “pandemic” as much as say a taxi driver. As neither had to deal with a black swan event such as this and so no decision can be drawn upon prior experience. The difference is that a taxi driver knows that he knows nothing about it, while the government think they know enough to deal with it. That is why we are in such a mess.
In situations like this the so called experts are not even as good as a crowd of taxi drivers. Wisdom of the crowd beats the wisdom of the experts in complex situations any day.

Ask the average taxi driver what they know about disaster planning and preparation.
Ask them what do they know about the SARS outbreak of 2002.
I expect not much.
Now... ask an infectious disease expert about pandemics.
You are so completely ignorant of what you are talking about you're not even aware of the vast gaps in your understanding of the area

* And I mean this as no disrespect to taxi drivers.

odyssey06 · 23-08-2020 10:54AM

niallo27 wrote: »

Would you let your local politician do the operation.

Are we letting politicians except Leo get involved in treating people on wards during this pandemic?
How is this in anyway relevant?
If not, can you keep the strawmen and red herrings to a minimum.

walus · 23-08-2020 11:01AM

odyssey06 wrote: »

Ask the average taxi driver what they know about disaster planning and preparation.
Ask them what do they know about the SARS outbreak of 2002.
I expect not much.
Now... ask an infectious disease expert about pandemics.
You are so completely ignorant of what you are talking about you're not even aware of the vast gaps in your understanding of the area

* And I mean this as no disrespect to taxi drivers.

My point is about the decision making process. If all these what you said was true, why are we having bigger and bigger mess with each passing week?

With the same set of information a diverse group of people would come up with a better decision than the government themselves. That is a fact that stems from the decision making theory and practice. Nothing more, nothing less.

The government has no reliable process of making decisions and that is why we are in such a mess. And they have abdicated the decision making to so called experts, whose role has been hugely overvalued.

Give the same input information to all the taxi drivers in the country and they will make a better decision. They are diverse enough group and incentivised by the fact that they are right in the middle of it.

odyssey06 · 23-08-2020 11:07AM

walus wrote: »

My point is about the decision making process. If all these what you said was true, why are we having bigger and bigger mess with each passing week?
With the same set of information a diverse group of people would come up with a better decision than the government themselves. That is a fact that stems from the decision making theory and practice. Nothing more, nothing less.
The government has no reliable process of making decisions and that is why we are in such a mess. And they have abdicated the decision making to so called experts.

It's not a fact. It's nothing of the kind.
You've using clever sounding phrases but it means nothing.
There is no coherent argument.
Replay march with a bunch of taxi drivers advising the government instead of NPHET?
I don't think that ends well.
So obviously and clearly we need experts advising the government.

You are contradicting your own argument now by changing the goalposts.
Now it's the lack of expertise in the government in decision making that's the problem... replace the cabinet with a random bunch of taxi drivers, would the outcome be any better? With twice as many taxi drivers?
No.
Nothing to do with wisdom of the crowd.
And if you look at what you are saying the problems isn't the experts it is the lack of expertise in government in decision making.

walus · 23-08-2020 11:18AM

odyssey06 wrote: »

It's not a fact. It's nothing of the kind.
You've using clever sounding phrases but it means nothing.
There is no coherent argument.
Replay march with a bunch of taxi drivers advising the government instead of NPHET?
I don't think that ends well.
So obviously and clearly we need experts advising the government.

You are contradicting your own argument now by changing the goalposts.
Now it's the lack of expertise in the government in decision making that's the problem... replace the cabinet with a random bunch of taxi drivers, would the outcome be any better? With twice as many taxi drivers?
No.
Nothing to do with wisdom of the crowd.
And if you look at what you are saying the problems isn't the experts it is the lack of expertise in government in decision making.

A lot of times experts are wrong, as they have been in the current Covid situation. And that is obvious for everyone to see. And it is something that anyone that makes decisions knows or should know and plan for. That is why to assess the problem one needs to look not only from the inside (existing expertise) but also from the outside (I.e. wisdom of the diverse and relevant crowd). Otherwise the decision that one makes is suboptimal.
I’m not suggesting replacing the government with the taxi drivers, I’m only saying that the outcomeS of their decision will depend more on luck than anything else(skill and knowledge). That is not how I expect them to get us out of this mess.

Expert knowledge is only good in narrow fields and it is a job of a government to contextualise the information that they receive and assign appropriate weight as per the complex problem of many intertwined elements that continuously interact with one another. The government either did not have a diverse enough pool of experts (people holding opposite believes proved by data) or failed in decision making process.

MadYaker · 23-08-2020 11:32AM

walus wrote: »

Of course not, I would go to an expert in the field with 1000+ similar operations on his/her track record. The current Covid situation is unprecedented and therefore one should not rely solely on “expert” knowledge as such knowledge is highly questionable. These guys did not gave the prior experience with highly complex and continuously developing scenarios such as the one we are facing now.

Expert knowledge is useful for some situations, static and predictable systems/problems. Relying on that for dynamic and exponential systems is often recipe for disaster.

Epidemiology is based on statistics and predictable systems. You are picking and choosing which experts to listen to and when because you think you know better based on absolutely nothing other than your own feelings. The doctor that does your operation is an expert for exactly the same reason as the doctors who are now advising the government.

The plan isn't working as it should because people are ignoring the guidelines. Then when cases go up those same people turn around and say "look the experts know nothing, the guidelines don't work!" and continue to ignore the guidelines making the problem worse for everyone. This is where we're at now. I wouldn't be surprised at a full lockdown after the schools reopen and people still won't get it. There's just too many idiots in the world for a problem this complex to be solved effectively.

walus · 23-08-2020 11:42AM

MadYaker wrote: »

Epidemiology is based on statistics and predictable systems. You are picking and choosing which experts to listen to and when because you think you know better based on absolutely nothing other than your own feelings. The doctor that does your operation is an expert for exactly the same reason as the doctors who are now advising the government.

The plan isn't working as it should because people are ignoring the guidelines. Then when cases go up those same people turn around and say "look the experts know nothing, the guidelines don't work!" and continue to ignore the guidelines making the problem worse for everyone. This is where we're at now. I wouldn't be surprised at a full lockdown after the schools reopen and people still won't get it. There's just too many idiots in the world for a problem this complex to be solved effectively.

The plan isn’t working because the government took a wrong course of action and lost peoples’s believe that they know what they are doing. Ultra conservatism is equally damaging as recklessness, and sacrificing economy and people’s futures while the HSE is far from being under any sort of pressure is a huge mistake. People see that now and they will not comply with the restrictions and they see that the cure is worse than the disease itself.

Another lock down is unimplementable, never mind that it is not a solution to deal with what transpires to be a mild virus. Selective isolation yes, lockdown no, utter stupidity.

niallo27 · 23-08-2020 11:55AM

MadYaker wrote: »

Epidemiology is based on statistics and predictable systems. You are picking and choosing which experts to listen to and when because you think you know better based on absolutely nothing other than your own feelings. The doctor that does your operation is an expert for exactly the same reason as the doctors who are now advising the government.

The plan isn't working as it should because people are ignoring the guidelines. Then when cases go up those same people turn around and say "look the experts know nothing, the guidelines don't work!" and continue to ignore the guidelines making the problem worse for everyone. This is where we're at now. I wouldn't be surprised at a full lockdown after the schools reopen and people still won't get it. There's just too many idiots in the world for a problem this complex to be solved effectively.

Statistics and predictable systems are absolutely useless without data and lots of it. This has already been proven with the prediction of 60k dead in Sweden. We have a lot more data now so where are the models.

walus · 23-08-2020 12:12PM

niallo27 wrote: »

Statistics and predictable systems are absolutely useless without data and lots of it. This has already been proven with the prediction of 60k dead in Sweden. We have a lot more data now so where are the models.

It looks as if the government took an early decision back in March on how they thought this was going to pan out and has been following that path ever since. At the same time the empirical data that has been coming through from various sources suggests that the virus is much milder than expected originally and that the ultra conservative approach that the government took on is greatly inadequate going forward. The virus is here to stay and significant majority of the population could and should go back to living their lives largely in a normal way.
I expect this all collective, socialistic blanket approach to go away when the schools open. This will expose the fallacy of the current government strategy.

MadYaker · 23-08-2020 12:17PM

walus wrote: »

The plan isn’t working because the government took a wrong course of action and lost peoples’s believe that they know what they are doing. Ultra conservatism is equally damaging as recklessness, and sacrificing economy and people’s futures while the HSE is far from being under any sort of pressure is a huge mistake. People see that now and they will not comply with the restrictions and they see that the cure is worse than the disease itself.

Another lock down is unimplementable, never mind that it is not a solution to deal with what transpires to be a mild virus. Selective isolation yes, lockdown no, utter stupidity.

How do you know they took a wrong course of action? Would you say the guidelines were widely adhered to or not? Which country should we be following that has a better plan?

Charles Babbage · 23-08-2020 12:28PM

niallo27 wrote: »

Statistics and predictable systems are absolutely useless without data and lots of it. This has already been proven with the prediction of 60k dead in Sweden. We have a lot more data now so where are the models.

Covid19 is the disease in the history of the world about which the largest amount of data has been collected.

As for death tolls, when the disease is widespread people alter their behaviour whether the government passes a law or not, so the worst outcomes do not result.

walus · 23-08-2020 12:32PM

MadYaker wrote: »

How do you know they took a wrong course of action? Would you say the guidelines were widely adhered to or not? Which country should we be following that has a better plan?

It is too early to say which country had the best strategy. End of 2021 will be a more appropriate time. Right now it looks like Sweden has the greatest chance of going back to living their lives normally. Germany are quick to implement measures (airport testing) that are to restore people’s’ free movement, which is to be admired. These two countries are living in the current reality and not fooling their citizens that this is a short term problem that will be fixed by a vaccine or some other miracle.
I don’t have enough info to make a statement on whether the guidelines were adhered to across the country, but from what I saw in the early stage, the lockdown, people bought into the concept and refrain from going to work and visiting friends an family.
After this huge gain, the government wasted the opportunity to isolate the hotspots (care homes, staff and their families) and open up the economy of under 65 year olds for which the likelihood of dying of Covid is 3x smaller than from flu. They were hoping to emulate NewZealand and eradicate the virus completely, which could not have been done, as they have just learnt.

niallo27 · 23-08-2020 12:36PM

Charles Babbage wrote: »

Covid19 is the disease in the history of the world about which the largest amount of data has been collected.

As for death tolls, when the disease is widespread people alter their behaviour whether the government passes a law or not, so the worst outcomes do not result.

When the models were created there was very little data but the government took them as fact. As for your 2nd point shouldn't peoples behaviour have been factored in as well to provide some kind of accuracy. I know you mention worst outcome but we are no where near it, I know we had fairly strict restrictions but look at Sweden they have been fairly loose why isn't their death rate anywhere near anything predicted.

FintanMcluskey · 23-08-2020 12:37PM

walus wrote: »

After this huge gain, the government wasted the opportunity to isolate the hotspots (care homes, staff and their families) and open up the economy of under 65 year olds for which the likelihood of dying of Covid is 3x smaller than from flu. They were hoping to emulate NewZealand and eradicate the virus completely, which could not have been done.

There is just no argument against this.

The inaction from the government is sending Ireland back to the 1930's, for something thats not dangerous for those fit to work.

No doubt the usual Covid hysterics will turn up to say its not the flu.

MadYaker · 23-08-2020 12:47PM

walus wrote: »

It is too early to say which country had the best strategy. End of 2021 will be a more appropriate time. Right now it looks like Sweden has the greatest chance of going back to living their lives normally. Germany are quick to implement measures (airport testing) that are to restore people’s’ free movement, which is to be admired. These two countries are living in the current reality and not fooling their citizens that this is a short term problem that will be fixed by a vaccine or some other miracle.
I don’t have enough info to make a statement on whether the guidelines were adhered to across the country, but from what I saw in the early stage, the lockdown, people bought into the concept and refrain from going to work and visiting friends an family.
After this huge gain, the government wasted the opportunity to isolate the hotspots (care homes, staff and their families) and open up the economy of under 65 year olds for which the likelihood of dying of Covid is 3x smaller than from flu. They were hoping to emulate NewZealand and eradicate the virus completely, which could not have been done, as they have just learnt.

Daily life in Sweden, Germany and Ireland now is the same.

So you seem to think the lockdown worked to a certain extent? Id agree that it was effective so I guess you think they didn't get it completely wrong? I don't agree that the government and NPHET "wasted huge gains". I think they stuck with their plan while keeping abreast of developments but as the lockdown was eased people got sick of it and started ignoring the guidelines and now cases are rising again. So my take on it is that plan is fairly ok, its just being ignored by too large a % of the population. An increase in cases was always going to come when we moved out of lockdown, but increases of 100 to 150 cases a day is not sustainable.

It was never NPHET or the governments intention to eradicate the virus like in NZ and they never claimed that that was the plan. They always from day one stated that the plan was suppression followed by management.

The health system is under pressure. Waiting lists are huge again and emptying out the hospitals like we did back in March just isn't an option.

FintanMcluskey · 23-08-2020 12:52PM

MadYaker wrote: »

Daily life in Sweden, Germany and Ireland now is the same.

So you seem to think the lockdown worked to a certain extent? Id agree that it was effective so I guess you think they didn't get it completely wrong? I don't agree that the government and NPHET "wasted huge gains". I think they stuck with their plan while keeping abreast of developments but as the lockdown was eased people got sick of it and started ignoring the guidelines and now cases are rising again. So my take on it is that plan is fairly ok, its just being ignored by too large a % of the population. An increase in cases was always going to come when we moved out of lockdown, but increases of 100 to 150 cases a day is not sustainable.

It was never NPHET or the governments intention to eradicate the virus like in NZ and they never claimed that that was the plan. They always from day one stated that the plan was suppression followed by management.

The health system is under pressure. Waiting lists are huge again and emptying out the hospitals like we did back in March just isn't an option.

Your confidence in NPHET and the government is totally unjustified

MadYaker · 23-08-2020 01:04PM

FintanMcluskey wrote: »

Your confidence in NPHET and the government is totally unjustified

I have zero confidence in this particular government but id have reasonable confidence in NPHET. That said I don't always agree with their recommendations. I couldn't understand why they were giving out mixed messages on masks in the beginning, should have been recommended indoors from day one. The first plan for reopening was way too slow but Varadker stepped in and sped it up.

Another reason I have SOME confidence in NPHET is because every country has their own version of NPHET and if you look at the advice being given to governments all over the world it's basically the same, they can't all be wrong and there is no way you or I know better than all of them. To think that would be very arrogant and I'm smart enough to know that there is a lot of stuff that I don't know.

i_surge · 23-08-2020 01:09PM

walus wrote: »

Another interesting perspective on overestimating the actual risks with regard to Covid: https://youtu.be/rMWdPRhu_p8

I suppose the government knows about how to deal with the current “pandemic” as much as say a taxi driver. As neither had to deal with a black swan event such as this and so no decision can be drawn upon prior experience. The difference is that a taxi driver knows that he knows nothing about it, while the government think they know enough to deal with it. That is why we are in such a mess.

In situations like this the so called experts are not even as good as a crowd of taxi drivers. Wisdom of the crowd beats the wisdom of the experts in complex situations any day.

That isn't how the wisdom of crowds operates. Only applies when everyone has equal information. Like guessing how many marbles in a jar they can all see.

I think the opposite, human nature and the spreading of ignorance leads to biased poor decisions. Foolishness of herd behaviour.

Not a black swan event btw

Viruses are periodic and therefore expected.

i_surge · 23-08-2020 01:13PM

niallo27 wrote: »

When the models were created there was very little data but the government took them as fact. As for your 2nd point shouldn't peoples behaviour have been factored in as well to provide some kind of accuracy. I know you mention worst outcome but we are no where near it, I know we had fairly strict restrictions but look at Sweden they have been fairly loose why isn't their death rate anywhere near anything predicted.

Look at Florida and similar states for true examples of looseness.

If you only base your argument on Sweden you are conveniently ignoring the truth.

polesheep · 23-08-2020 01:30PM

Charles Babbage wrote: »

Covid19 is the disease in the history of the world about which the largest amount of data has been collected.

As for death tolls, when the disease is widespread people alter their behaviour whether the government passes a law or not, so the worst outcomes do not result.

Source?

walus · 23-08-2020 01:32PM

MadYaker wrote: »

Daily life in Sweden, Germany and Ireland now is the same.

So you seem to think the lockdown worked to a certain extent? Id agree that it was effective so I guess you think they didn't get it completely wrong? I don't agree that the government and NPHET "wasted huge gains". I think they stuck with their plan while keeping abreast of developments but as the lockdown was eased people got sick of it and started ignoring the guidelines and now cases are rising again. So my take on it is that plan is fairly ok, its just being ignored by too large a % of the population. An increase in cases was always going to come when we moved out of lockdown, but increases of 100 to 150 cases a day is not sustainable.

It was never NPHET or the governments intention to eradicate the virus like in NZ and they never claimed that that was the plan. They always from day one stated that the plan was suppression followed by management.

The health system is under pressure. Waiting lists are huge again and emptying out the hospitals like we did back in March just isn't an option.

I applauded the government when they made a decision to close schools and pubs back in the day. These are two very social environments where a virus like this would have a chance to spread quickly. Ireland had the benefit of getting the surge of infections relatively late and could use the medial data from other countries who have experienced that earlier to guide their decision making in the next step. That data was already saying that there were vulnerable cohorts which required a different strategies than the rest of the population. Selective isolation of those cohorts would have been far easier and less expensive to implement than what they have done since lockdown.
Looking at the original logic, if schools and pubs were deemed equally important in containing the virus, why it is ok to open schools but not pubs?

walus · 23-08-2020 01:38PM

i_surge wrote: »

That isn't how the wisdom of crowds operates. Only applies when everyone has equal information. Like guessing how many marbles in a jar they can all see.

I think the opposite, human nature and the spreading of ignorance leads to biased poor decisions. Foolishness of herd behaviour.

Not a black swan event btw

Viruses are periodic and therefore expected.

Correct, wisdom of crowds depends on individuals working off the same information.
I agree, possibly it is not a black swan event, more so a grey one. A known unknown. Nevertheless, neither the government nor HSE (the highest infection rate of HSE staff in EU) had even preliminary plans as to how to deal with the situation. Never mind the complete procedures and contingencies. Appalling really.

Relaxation of Restrictions, Part V - **Read OP for Mod Warnings**

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Relaxation of Restrictions, Part V - Read OP for Mod Warnings