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Covid 19 Part XXI-27,908 in ROI (1,777 deaths) 6,647 in NI (559 deaths)(22/08)Read OP

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Comments

  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 529 ✭✭✭lukas8888


    Its so strange because if you meet him he's the last person you'd imagine would come across this info ,
    He stuck it on our wats ap group and everyone laughed thought he was taking the piss as usual but he hasn't been wrong yet,
    Iv only posted it yesterday but have been getting them for a few weeks now ,
    I am not going to be greedy,not looking for tomorrows lotto numbers,the winner of the next race today in Killarney will do


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,818 ✭✭✭plodder


    Dublin cases have risen considerably.
    As stated above, it's 3 cases per 100,000 (assuming 1.3 million pop.). Still pretty low.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 11,759 ✭✭✭✭ACitizenErased


    plodder wrote: »
    3 cases per 100,000 (assuming 1.3 million pop.). Still pretty low.

    Dublin’s 14 day incidence is 19.3 and rising, higher than 17 other counties.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,839 ✭✭✭Always_Running


    Our new cmo, yourdeadwright, has already released today’s numbers
    Let's hope he's right. On recent reported deaths how many actually happened this month does anyone know?


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 11,129 ✭✭✭✭Oranage2


    13,000

    That's positive, it looks like the positives to tests taken is lowering


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  • Closed Accounts Posts: 917 ✭✭✭MickeyLeari


    Dublin’s 14 day incidence is 19.3 and rising, higher than 17 other counties.

    Well that is a different context. What is kildare’s?


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,527 ✭✭✭tobefrank321


    Dublin has a population of 1.35m so on that basis the daily incidence is 3.2 per 100,000 population. That compares with the national figure of 26.6 per 100,000 (14 day average).

    How worried are you?

    Dublin is high density though, public transport, etc. One infected person could have multiple contacts in one day. Offaly and Laois are lower density and easier to control it there.

    It could easily take off in Dublin and some form of lockdown may be needed to stop people spreading it.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 11,759 ✭✭✭✭ACitizenErased




  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 11,759 ✭✭✭✭ACitizenErased


    Well that is a different context. What is kildare’s?
    Ef4lSZxXYAMhCW_?format=png&name=large


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 917 ✭✭✭MickeyLeari


    Dublin is high density though, public transport, etc. One infected person could have multiple contacts in one day. Offaly and Laois are lower density and easier to control it there.

    It could easily take off in Dublin and some form of lockdown may be needed to stop people spreading it.

    I think if Dublin is locked down then we are in all sorts of trouble.


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  • Moderators, Motoring & Transport Moderators Posts: 6,524 Mod ✭✭✭✭Irish Steve


    https://covid19ireland-geohive.hub.arcgis.com/

    10 to 12 days is the mean time to hospitalisation not 3 to 4 weeks, and for most countries , in the initial surge, deaths spiked within 10 days of cases spiking

    Your point? I think I just mentioned that from contact to becoming apparent is 2 to 14 days, so if you're in the pub this evening, and pick up Covid from someone that's asymptomatic, it could be Sept 5th before it becomes apparent to you that you have Covid, assuming that you do display symptoms, which may not be the case.

    If it then takes up to 2 weeks for you to become sufficiently ill to require hospitalisation, that's somewhere around Sept 19th, so effectively about a month behind the infection date, which I think is the period of time I used.

    So, the people in hospital today were possibly infected somwhere around July 23rd, maybe earlier, depending on how long they've been in hospital, and if we look at the number of cases per day a month ago, they were a lot lower than they are now.

    As someone commented a few pages back, given the massive increase in numbers recently, the die is already cast, and all we can do now is work as hard as possible to prevent the numbers going even higher than they are today, which is going to be achieved by doing the things we already know about, separation, masks, hand hygiene and isolation of people with symptoms.

    Along with the things we can all do, we need Government to step up to the plate and get their act together on testing and tracing, and if that means testing everyone in a specific area because they don't know where it's coming from, then that is what HAS to be done to stop it, not wring their collective hands together and say " we don't know".

    The fact that we have a significant percentage of people across the spectrum of Irish society that seem to unable to get their heads around these fundamental issues is not helping us at all, the difference between Wuhan and Dublin is that when the Chinese did lock down, they did it across the board, and did mandatory mass testing, because the penalties for not doing so were real, and enforced, whereas the attitude here is very evidently "shore, it'll be grand".

    Reminds me of a Ballymun resident who said to Joe Duffy when Charlie's tax issues came into the public domain, "shore, wasn't he a cute hoor to get away with it for as long as he did". Seems like not a lot has changed in some areas of Irish Life.

    Laissez faire attitudes is what's allowing Covid to come back at us, probably assisted by the absence of testing of people coming in or back into Ireland after trips abroad.

    Shore, if it was easy, everybody would be doin it.😁



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 988 ✭✭✭brendanwalsh


    Better late than never

    80 cases , 43 Dublin, 10 Kildare 3 Laois

    0 deaths

    Wrong again


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,818 ✭✭✭plodder


    Dublin’s 14 day incidence is 19.3 and rising, higher than 17 other counties.
    How is that calculated? If it's a moving average, would today's number not cause it to drop?


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 434 ✭✭Derek Zoolander


    Ef4lSZxXYAMhCW_?format=png&name=large

    would be interesting to see updated with 2020 census - I think total population was increased by 200k and have to imagine most of that would be Dublin and commuter belt based - could change the incidence rate per population...


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,818 ✭✭✭plodder


    Wrong again
    He was right yesterday.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 11,759 ✭✭✭✭ACitizenErased


    plodder wrote: »
    How is that calculated? If it's a moving average, would today's number not cause it to drop?
    Cases over the last 14 days / population in 100000s
    So today would add 43 (if thats right) and take away 5 (the number in dublin this day 2 weeks ago) to 260 and divide by same amount, meaning an increased incidence (approx 22 from 19, increase of 3) and overtaking Kilkenny on the list


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 2,969 ✭✭✭Assetbacked




  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 18,156 ✭✭✭✭fritzelly


    Lunacy.

    A certain EU commissioner will be getting burnt at the stake


  • Posts: 0 [Deleted User]


    Your point? I think I just mentioned that from contact to becoming apparent is 2 to 14 days, so if you're in the pub this evening, and pick up Covid from someone that's asymptomatic, it could be Sept 5th before it becomes apparent to you that you have Covid, assuming that you do display symptoms, which may not be the case.

    If it then takes up to 2 weeks for you to become sufficiently ill to require hospitalisation, that's somewhere around Sept 19th, so effectively about a month behind the infection date, which I think is the period of time I used.

    So, the people in hospital today were possibly infected somwhere around July 23rd, maybe earlier, depending on how long they've been in hospital, and if we look at the number of cases per day a month ago, they were a lot lower than they are now.

    As someone commented a few pages back, given the massive increase in numbers recently, the die is already cast, and all we can do now is work as hard as possible to prevent the numbers going even higher than they are today, which is going to be achieved by doing the things we already know about, separation, masks, hand hygiene and isolation of people with symptoms.

    Along with the things we can all do, we need Government to step up to the plate and get their act together on testing and tracing, and if that means testing everyone in a specific area because they don't know where it's coming from, then that is what HAS to be done to stop it, not wring their collective hands together and say " we don't know".

    The fact that we have a significant percentage of people across the spectrum of Irish society that seem to unable to get their heads around these fundamental issues is not helping us at all, the difference between Wuhan and Dublin is that when the Chinese did lock down, they did it across the board, and did mandatory mass testing, because the penalties for not doing so were real, and enforced, whereas the attitude here is very evidently "shore, it'll be grand".

    Reminds me of a Ballymun resident who said to Joe Duffy when Charlie's tax issues came into the public domain, "shore, wasn't he a cute hoor to get away with it for as long as he did". Seems like not a lot has changed in some areas of Irish Life.

    Laissez faire attitudes is what's allowing Covid to come back at us, probably assisted by the absence of testing of people coming in or back into Ireland after trips abroad.
    So you've taken the max from 2-14 days to become infected and the next max from 2-14 days after being infected to being hospitalised to come up with 4 weeks delay between cases and hospitalisations.

    Then some random ****e about Irish society. Great, but there's no way the average is 4 weeks, if anything they'd be the outliers.

    Furthermore, given that testing isn't immediate (and often after somebody has displayed symptoms), and results aren't immediate, and our reporting of results also isn't immediate. Its likely most cases are 4-5 days in before they even hit our figures. So 4 weeks is again nonsense.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 903 ✭✭✭big syke


    Oranage2 wrote: »
    That's positive, it looks like the positives to tests taken is lowering

    Correct. Really good news. One of the lowest % positive to number of tests in ages.

    Date Positives Tests conducted % of Positive
    21/08/2020 80 13080 0.611620795
    20/08/2020 136 11416 1.191310441
    19/08/2020 54 6192 0.872093023
    18/08/2020 190 4339 4.378889145
    17/08/2020 56 5533 1.012109163
    16/08/2020 66 10352 0.63755796
    15/08/2020 200 10663 1.875644753
    14/08/2020 67 11327 0.591507019
    13/08/2020 92 7072 1.300904977
    12/08/2020 40 5843 0.684579839
    11/08/2020 35 4026 0.86934923
    10/08/2020 57 3874 1.471347445
    09/08/2020 68 4107 1.655709764
    08/08/2020 174 4880 3.56557377
    07/08/2020 98 4980 1.967871486
    06/08/2020 69 4833 1.427684668
    05/08/2020 50 3761 1.329433661


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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,789 ✭✭✭PowerToWait


    ...........

    Laissez faire attitudes is what's allowing Covid to come back at us, probably assisted by the absence of testing of people coming in or back into Ireland after trips abroad............

    Very good post.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,818 ✭✭✭plodder


    Cases over the last 14 days / population in 100000s
    So today would add 43 (if thats right) and take away 5 (the number in dublin this day 2 weeks ago) to 260 and divide by same amount, meaning an increased incidence (approx 22 from 19, increase of 3) and overtaking Kilkenny on the list
    Thanks. Where would I find the daily figures for each county?


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 14,394 ✭✭✭✭Professor Moriarty


    fritzelly wrote: »
    A certain EU commissioner will be getting burnt at the stake

    That would not be in Ireland's interest.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 11,759 ✭✭✭✭ACitizenErased


    plodder wrote: »
    Thanks. Where would I find the daily figures for each county?
    gov.ie/publications any statement from NPHET


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,251 ✭✭✭speckle


    Been a bit out of the loop. Question re my maths and covid.
    Is 35% of 1733 = 606 responders
    and
    33 postives for antibodies out of 606= 5%???
    Tried looking back for posts re sligo/Dublin antibody results post here so apologies if already answered.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,784 ✭✭✭froog


    big syke wrote: »
    Correct. Really good news. One of the lowest % positive to number of tests in ages.

    Date Positives Tests conducted % of Positive
    21/08/2020 80 13080 0.611620795
    20/08/2020 136 11416 1.191310441
    19/08/2020 54 6192 0.872093023
    18/08/2020 190 4339 4.378889145
    17/08/2020 56 5533 1.012109163
    16/08/2020 66 10352 0.63755796
    15/08/2020 200 10663 1.875644753
    14/08/2020 67 11327 0.591507019
    13/08/2020 92 7072 1.300904977
    12/08/2020 40 5843 0.684579839
    11/08/2020 35 4026 0.86934923
    10/08/2020 57 3874 1.471347445
    09/08/2020 68 4107 1.655709764
    08/08/2020 174 4880 3.56557377
    07/08/2020 98 4980 1.967871486
    06/08/2020 69 4833 1.427684668
    05/08/2020 50 3761 1.329433661

    i'm not sure how much we can read into this to be honest. way more people are looking for tests now if they have a sniffle or headache etc. so you would expect the % positive to be lower. the total figure is still much more important imo.

    put it this way - if you tested everyone in the country tomorrow your % positive rate would be miniscule but you could still have a few hundred cases.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,187 ✭✭✭GeorgeBailey


    Don't think Dublin will be locked down but gonna buy a set of golf clubs just in case


  • Posts: 0 [Deleted User]


    Ef4lSZxXYAMhCW_?format=png&name=large

    I have said all along we need to blow the bridges on the Shannon and that table re-enforces that


  • Posts: 0 [Deleted User]


    Your point? I think I just mentioned that from contact to becoming apparent is 2 to 14 days, so if you're in the pub this evening, and pick up Covid from someone that's asymptomatic, it could be Sept 5th before it becomes apparent to you that you have Covid, assuming that you do display symptoms, which may not be the case.

    If it then takes up to 2 weeks for you to become sufficiently ill to require hospitalisation, that's somewhere around Sept 19th, so effectively about a month behind the infection date, which I think is the period of time I used.

    So, the people in hospital today were possibly infected somwhere around July 23rd, maybe earlier, depending on how long they've been in hospital, and if we look at the number of cases per day a month ago, they were a lot lower than they are now.

    As someone commented a few pages back, given the massive increase in numbers recently, the die is already cast, and all we can do now is work as hard as possible to prevent the numbers going even higher than they are today, which is going to be achieved by doing the things we already know about, separation, masks, hand hygiene and isolation of people with symptoms.

    Along with the things we can all do, we need Government to step up to the plate and get their act together on testing and tracing, and if that means testing everyone in a specific area because they don't know where it's coming from, then that is what HAS to be done to stop it, not wring their collective hands together and say " we don't know".

    The fact that we have a significant percentage of people across the spectrum of Irish society that seem to unable to get their heads around these fundamental issues is not helping us at all, the difference between Wuhan and Dublin is that when the Chinese did lock down, they did it across the board, and did mandatory mass testing, because the penalties for not doing so were real, and enforced, whereas the attitude here is very evidently "shore, it'll be grand".

    Reminds me of a Ballymun resident who said to Joe Duffy when Charlie's tax issues came into the public domain, "shore, wasn't he a cute hoor to get away with it for as long as he did". Seems like not a lot has changed in some areas of Irish Life.

    Laissez faire attitudes is what's allowing Covid to come back at us, probably assisted by the absence of testing of people coming in or back into Ireland after trips abroad.

    Up to 14 days. Very few actually take 14 days


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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,839 ✭✭✭Always_Running


    big syke wrote: »
    Correct. Really good news. One of the lowest % positive to number of tests in ages.

    Date Positives Tests conducted % of Positive
    21/08/2020 80 13080 0.611620795
    20/08/2020 136 11416 1.191310441
    19/08/2020 54 6192 0.872093023
    18/08/2020 190 4339 4.378889145
    17/08/2020 56 5533 1.012109163
    16/08/2020 66 10352 0.63755796
    15/08/2020 200 10663 1.875644753
    14/08/2020 67 11327 0.591507019
    13/08/2020 92 7072 1.300904977
    12/08/2020 40 5843 0.684579839
    11/08/2020 35 4026 0.86934923
    10/08/2020 57 3874 1.471347445
    09/08/2020 68 4107 1.655709764
    08/08/2020 174 4880 3.56557377
    07/08/2020 98 4980 1.967871486
    06/08/2020 69 4833 1.427684668
    05/08/2020 50 3761 1.329433661
    Excellent news.


This discussion has been closed.
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