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Covid 19 Part XXI-27,908 in ROI (1,777 deaths) 6,647 in NI (559 deaths)(22/08)Read OP

  • 10-08-2020 7:07pm
    #1
    Administrators, Social & Fun Moderators, Sports Moderators Posts: 62,376 Admin ✭✭✭✭✭ Beasty


    Welcome to the 21st iteration, the previous ones

    Thread I
    Thread II
    Thread III
    Thread IV
    Thread V
    Thread VI
    Thread VII
    Thread VIII
    Thread IX
    Thread X
    Thread XI
    Thread XII
    Thread XIII
    Thread XIV
    Thread XV
    Thread XVI
    Thread XVII
    Thread XVIII
    Thread XIX
    Thread XX


    The daily numbers

    Mod warnings:
    1. Please interact in a civil manner
    2. Do not tell others what to do, or what to post
    3. It is against site rules to seek or offer any medical advice. Please do not post here about your symptoms asking what to do. Contact your doctor by telephone and they can advise you as appropriate
    4. If you have a problem with a post report it and leave the modding to the mods

    In terms of thread content:
    • Treat everything you read here with caution. Anything posted is from an anonymous internet poster. You cannot assume anyone has any "specialist" knowledge whatever they claim
    • Statistics are important to some (and I personally pay a lot of attention to them), but they are of very little use to anyone who is already caught up in this, or indeed knows of people who are caught up
    • Whatever your own views are please recognise others are entitled to different views., Even if at different extremes please do not try and repeatedly ram your views down the throats of those who have differing views
    • Cut out any cover-up/conspiracy stuff. If you have a reliable source quote it (not just their words but provide a link to a reliable source) - otherwise your claims carry little if any weight. If you wish to discuss conspiracy theories we have a dedicated forum for that and it’s not this one
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    And now a maths lesson:
    “Average” is a non-defined term. “Mean” and “Median” are both mathematically defined terms.
    Mean = the sum of a series of numbers divided by the number of items in the series
    Hence the Mean of 1, 2, 3, 3, 4, 7, 8 = (1+2+3+3+4+7+8)/7 = 4
    Median is the midpoint number. In the above example it’s the 4th number in the sequence of 7 numbers – in this case 3
    Both numbers are examples of “averages”. Not every average is the “Mean”, not every average is the “Median”, but every “Mean” and every “Median” number is an average

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Comments

  • Administrators, Social & Fun Moderators, Sports Moderators Posts: 62,376 Admin ✭✭✭✭✭ Beasty


    There's an evil virus that's threatening mankind
    Not state of the art, a serious state of the mind
    The muggers, the backstabbers, the two faced elite
    A menace to society, a social disease


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 5,134 ✭✭✭ caveat emptor


    The Finns defeated the soviets then held them to a draw.
    The are used to adversity I guess and not waiting for orders.
    Have we carried out any "random" PCR testing at airports or of the population in general and controlled for various factors?

    I think this is really needed to get a grip on this before it gets out of control.

    https://twitter.com/BloombergAsia/status/1292927914409963523?s=20


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,187 ✭✭✭ Coyote


    I think anyone reading stats it might be worth watching a the guide on Simpson's paradox, a statistical paradox and ecological fallacy where seemingly contradictory results are implied by a single set of data depending on how it's grouped. The paradox can arise in medical studies, student test scores, and so on.



  • Registered Users Posts: 524 ✭✭✭ DevilsHaircut


    I think I'm going to trust our health standards organisation :confused:

    If you're still talking about that HIQA thing, it's not reliable for the reasons I outlined previously.

    Me, I trust the Health Protection and Surveillance Centre, NPHET and the World Health Organisation on the numbers (as a fellow numbers person).


  • Registered Users Posts: 9,799 ✭✭✭ raind


    Coyote wrote: »
    I think anyone reading stats it might be worth watching a the guide on Simpson's paradox, a statistical paradox and ecological fallacy where seemingly contradictory results are implied by a single set of data depending on how it's grouped. The paradox can arise in medical studies, student test scores, and so on.


    Must watch for anyone who confidently states “who needs context, the numbers don’t lie”


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  • Registered Users Posts: 11,535 ✭✭✭✭ ACitizenErased


    If you're still talking about that HIQA thing, it's not reliable for the reasons I outlined previously.

    Me, I trust the Health Protection and Surveillance Centre, NPHET and the World Health Organisation on the numbers (as a fellow numbers person).
    Do you disagree that there have been people who didn't die from COVID counted in our death figures?


  • Registered Users Posts: 33,802 ✭✭✭✭ eagle eye


    The famous old saying 'your health is your wealth' doesn't seem to matter to a lot of people these days.
    They want to press on with life regardless.
    We still don't know enough about this virus. If you get it and are asymptomatic it might not be the end of it. It could end up causing you organ trouble in a couple of months time. I'm not saying that will happen but I wouldn't rule it out. I'm convinced this thing is man made.
    I understand money is important but it's not worth taking chances with.this virus. Stay safe until it's eradicated or we have a working vaccine is my belief.


  • Registered Users Posts: 3,215 ✭✭✭ Polar101


    raind wrote:
    Those numbers strike me as rather unusual. Macedonia has had a similar enough number of cases and deaths as us, and although they are going through their peak now it’s still only 150 per day in a country of 2million. If you assume average 2 weeks from Infection to resolution, that’s about 2,000 active cases or current rate idled 1/1000. Yet 24 people out 157 tested positive on that flight. Unless there was a sports team or tour group it would be statistically very unlikely for 24 cases to make it on to that flight at the same time even if they are only detecting 10% of cases in the country.

    24 out of 157 sounds extremely high, I'd even wonder if the testing was done properly. In the earlier plane test they tested 60 out of 100 passengers (flight was from Romania) and there were no positive tests. But then again a number of passengers refused the test, so we won't know the true numbers.

    Will be interesting to see if anyone on the Skopje flight got infected - obviously anyone testing positive would have gotten infected some days before taking the flight.


  • Registered Users Posts: 524 ✭✭✭ DevilsHaircut


    Do you disagree that there have been people who didn't die from COVID counted in our death figures?

    If you're claiming that this is the case, the onus is actually on you to prove they didn't.

    Again, the World Health Organisation's guidelines are crystal clear in this regard.


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,272 ✭✭✭ theballz


    Was out and about today, sadly there are still many people going into shops, pharmacy’s etc without masks

    From what I seen today, 90% of these people were over 60+, as leo mentioned today, we are turning into a blame culture, the finger is constantly pointed at young people throughout this pandemic. Today, however, I didn’t see a single young person without a mask.

    Credit to them.


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  • Registered Users Posts: 11,535 ✭✭✭✭ ACitizenErased


    If you're claiming that this is the case, the onus is actually on you to prove they didn't.

    Again, the World Health Organisation's guidelines are crystal clear in this regard.
    It's been made clear multiple times that COVID deaths in Ireland include both suspected and confirmed causes of death. Nothing for you to really argue against.


  • Registered Users Posts: 9,799 ✭✭✭ raind


    Polar101 wrote: »
    24 out of 157 sounds extremely high, I'd even wonder if the testing was done properly. In the earlier plane test they tested 60 out of 100 passengers (flight was from Romania) and there were no positive tests. But then again a number of passengers refused the test, so we won't know the true numbers.

    Will be interesting to see if anyone on the Skopje flight got infected - obviously anyone testing positive would have gotten infected some days before taking the flight.

    Would need to know the context of where the passengers came from, but those type of positive rates are what you’d expect within a significant cluster


  • Registered Users Posts: 33,802 ✭✭✭✭ eagle eye


    So kids don't get it they say, send them back to school. It'll all be fine. I don't think so.
    https://www.nbcboston.com/news/local/nearly-12000-children-in-new-england-have-tested-positive-for-covid-19/2174891/


  • Registered Users Posts: 5,611 ✭✭✭ Jinglejangle69


    eagle eye wrote: »
    The famous old saying 'your health is your wealth' doesn't seem to matter to a lot of people these days.
    They want to press on with life regardless.
    We still don't know enough about this virus. If you get it and are asymptomatic it might not be the end of it. It could end up causing you organ trouble in a couple of months time. I'm not saying that will happen but I wouldn't rule it out. I'm convinced this thing is man made.
    I understand money is important but it's not worth taking chances with.this virus. Stay safe until it's eradicated or we have a working vaccine is my belief.

    You're best of staying indoors for the foreseeable if you feel that way.

    Let the rest of us take our chances.


  • Registered Users Posts: 5,611 ✭✭✭ Jinglejangle69


    eagle eye wrote: »
    So kids don't get it they say, send them back to school. It'll all be fine. I don't think so.
    https://www.nbcboston.com/news/local/nearly-12000-children-in-new-england-have-tested-positive-for-covid-19/2174891/

    Who said kids don't hey it here?

    You need to stay indoors forever for your sanity.


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,757 ✭✭✭ the corpo


    Beasty wrote: »
    There's an evil virus that's threatening mankind
    Not state of the art, a serious state of the mind
    The muggers, the backstabbers, the two faced elite
    A menace to society, a social disease

    Nice


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 1,089 Non solum non ambulabit


    raind wrote: »
    Must watch for anyone who confidently states “who needs context, the numbers don’t lie”

    Totally. Context is everything and often missing in these discussions.


  • Registered Users Posts: 9,799 ✭✭✭ raind


    eagle eye wrote: »
    So kids don't get it they say, send them back to school. It'll all be fine. I don't think so.
    https://www.nbcboston.com/news/local/nearly-12000-children-in-new-england-have-tested-positive-for-covid-19/2174891/

    And only 3 deaths in a population of 14,000,000. Far less than those who die of meningitis and many other far more serious conditions in kids. Not minimising covid. Just the impact on children


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 1,089 Non solum non ambulabit


    eagle eye wrote: »
    So kids don't get it they say, send them back to school. It'll all be fine. I don't think so.
    https://www.nbcboston.com/news/local/nearly-12000-children-in-new-england-have-tested-positive-for-covid-19/2174891/

    I'm totally confused. Where is the kids don't get it narrative coming from? That hasn't been said since February.


  • Moderators, Sports Moderators Posts: 11,205 Mod ✭✭✭✭ hmmm


    I'm totally confused. Where is the kids don't get it narrative coming from? That hasn't been said since February.
    A group of people are inventing fake quotes so that they can say "look! we were right, the government are idiots, kids are getting Covid".

    We know kids can get Covid. That's why we need to keep community transmission low, so the chances of them getting it in school are lower.


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  • Administrators, Social & Fun Moderators, Sports Moderators Posts: 62,376 Admin ✭✭✭✭✭ Beasty


    the corpo wrote: »
    Nice

    It's lyrics from a song

    Like I've been doing in post #2 to every thread since thread XII, Xcept for XIII

    (It was post #4 in thread XI)


  • Registered Users Posts: 18,241 ✭✭✭✭ road_high


    eagle eye wrote: »
    The famous old saying 'your health is your wealth' doesn't seem to matter to a lot of people these days.
    They want to press on with life regardless.
    We still don't know enough about this virus. If you get it and are asymptomatic it might not be the end of it. It could end up causing you organ trouble in a couple of months time. I'm not saying that will happen but I wouldn't rule it out. I'm convinced this thing is man made.
    I understand money is important but it's not worth taking chances with.this virus. Stay safe until it's eradicated or we have a working vaccine is my belief.

    Yes that’s very true but for a different reason- they’re obsessing over this virus all the while being 5 stone overweight, taking no exercise, poor diet all resulting in weakened immune systems. Thanks to the PC world we live in it’s not PC to highlight the established link between obesity and Covid 19...but sure let’s close gyms and indoor exercise in lockdown but fast food and offies can keep pumping it out


  • Registered Users Posts: 21,291 ✭✭✭✭ Catmaniac


    hmmm wrote: »
    A group of people are inventing fake quotes so that they can say "look! we were right, the government are idiots, kids are getting Covid".

    We know kids can get Covid. That's why we need to keep community transmission low, so the chances of them getting it in school are lower.

    The main argument I see regarding kids & Covid is that they are not *usually* badly affected by it; but of course they can so easily pass it on to grandparents, vulnerable people and everyone else in the community. They can potentially be as much vectors of the virus as anybody.


  • Registered Users Posts: 11,447 ✭✭✭✭ expectationlost


    I'm totally confused. Where is the kids don't get it narrative coming from? That hasn't been said since February.
    Sunday Times published headline ‘Pupils pose no risk of spreading Covid’ then changed it to a more correct ‘Pupils pose little risk of spreading Covid’ https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/pupils-pose-no-risk-of-spreading-covid-27q6zfd9l

    Josepha Madigan tweeted it https://twitter.com/josephamadigan/status/1292386715244605440


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 1,089 Non solum non ambulabit


    Sunday Times published headline ‘Pupils pose no risk of spreading Covid’ to a more correct ‘Pupils pose little risk of spreading Covid’ https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/pupils-pose-no-risk-of-spreading-covid-27q6zfd9l

    Josepha Madigan tweeted it https://twitter.com/josephamadigan/status/1292386715244605440

    Where does it say kids don't get Covid? Am I missing something or what?

    Kids get Covid.

    It's an established fact.

    Again I'll ask who is saying they don't? Not expecting an answer, just deflection as usual.


  • Registered Users Posts: 2,092 ✭✭✭ Dave0301


    Sunday Times published headline ‘Pupils pose no risk of spreading Covid’ to a more correct ‘Pupils pose little risk of spreading Covid’ https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/pupils-pose-no-risk-of-spreading-covid-27q6zfd9l

    Josepha Madigan tweeted it https://twitter.com/josephamadigan/status/1292386715244605440

    Just for the record, I would not trust that as a source.

    It is based on an unpublished piece of research by PHE based on schools that had primary pupils in UK schools during lockdown.

    Therefore, very few pupils and lots of social distancing possible.

    There is evidence out there suggesting that teenagers/young adults transmit the virus just as much as adults.


  • Registered Users Posts: 75,007 ✭✭✭✭ JP Liz V1


    I saw many more wearing masks today even kids


  • Registered Users Posts: 75,007 ✭✭✭✭ JP Liz V1


    Knock Shrine in Mayo announced it will be closed on August 15, the Feast of the Assumption, to prevent large gatherings of crowds


  • Registered Users Posts: 33,802 ✭✭✭✭ eagle eye


    road_high wrote:
    Yes that’s very true but for a different reason- they’re obsessing over this virus all the while being 5 stone overweight, taking no exercise, poor diet all resulting in weakened immune systems. Thanks to the PC world we live in it’s not PC to highlight the established link between obesity and Covid 19...but sure let’s close gyms and indoor exercise in lockdown but fast food and offies can keep pumping it out
    I'm exercising, I don't need s gym to keep myself in shape.
    I'm not a fan of the pc crap either.
    I'm not a crazy guy that who breaks down everytime there's a bit of avl flu around the place either.
    I'm not sending my kids back to school at the end of August. There's enough guinea pigs out there more concerned about money than their health do I'll let them pave the way. If after 8 weeks there is no issue then my kids will return to school.
    I'm not a scientist, doctor or any type of medical professional. I'm just a parent who values the health of my kids. I'm a person who reads a lot and everything All I've read about this thing leads me to believe what I posted earlier.
    I believe it's man made due to the after affects which is unlike any other virus as in there are organ problems for some people, pims for kids and extreme lethargy for others.
    I believe that sending kids back to school is going to result in community transmission exploding.
    I believe we don't know enough about this virus yet to make decisions as regards work, education and general socialisation.
    I'm a person who has lived my life as a forward thinker. I like to.think I can look into the future a bit by using my education and experience and right now I'm finding it very hard to see our way forward.
    I know how we can fix the problem, I called for it in these threads months ago. We have to shut down incoming travel. We need to now go back to stage 1 of the lockdown and stay that way until we have no cases. This will solve our problem, we can then remove travel restrictions with other countries who reach zero cases.
    I said many months ago that a lockdown was very tough for everybody but that we should remain in it until we were clear because the economy would recover. We haven't fully opened back up yet but if we do and then end up with another lockdown we are in trouble financially.


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  • Registered Users Posts: 11,232 ✭✭✭✭ bodhrandude


    Delighted with all the contributions and updates from all the posters, nothing to add to the pot myself but I find this thread a invaluable resource of information. I have to say its easier to keep up with it now, in the early days it was a blur of posts and 11 to 15 pages to plough through and catch up on. I have my page set at 40 posts, so that was a lot of reading back then, would jump a few pages at a time. Have been taking advantage of the fine weather in Galway and started busking again, its good to play that bodhran. :)

    If you want to get into it, you got to get out of it. (Hawkwind 1982)



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