Covid 19 Part XXI-27,908 in ROI (1,777 deaths) 6,647 in NI (559 deaths)(22/08)Read OP

Beasty

Welcome to the 21st iteration, the previous ones

Thread I
Thread II
Thread III
Thread IV
Thread V
Thread VI
Thread VII
Thread VIII
Thread IX
Thread X
Thread XI
Thread XII
Thread XIII
Thread XIV
Thread XV
Thread XVI
Thread XVII
Thread XVIII
Thread XIX
Thread XX


The daily numbers

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And now a maths lesson:
“Average” is a non-defined term. “Mean” and “Median” are both mathematically defined terms.
Mean = the sum of a series of numbers divided by the number of items in the series
Hence the Mean of 1, 2, 3, 3, 4, 7, 8 = (1+2+3+3+4+7+8)/7 = 4
Median is the midpoint number. In the above example it’s the 4th number in the sequence of 7 numbers – in this case 3
Both numbers are examples of “averages”. Not every average is the “Mean”, not every average is the “Median”, but every “Mean” and every “Median” number is an average

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Beasty

There's an evil virus that's threatening mankind
Not state of the art, a serious state of the mind
The muggers, the backstabbers, the two faced elite
A menace to society, a social disease

caveat emptor

The Finns defeated the soviets then held them to a draw.
The are used to adversity I guess and not waiting for orders.
Have we carried out any "random" PCR testing at airports or of the population in general and controlled for various factors?

I think this is really needed to get a grip on this before it gets out of control.

https://twitter.com/BloombergAsia/status/1292927914409963523?s=20

Coyote

I think anyone reading stats it might be worth watching a the guide on Simpson's paradox, a statistical paradox and ecological fallacy where seemingly contradictory results are implied by a single set of data depending on how it's grouped. The paradox can arise in medical studies, student test scores, and so on.

DevilsHaircut

ACitizenErased wrote: »

I think I'm going to trust our health standards organisation

If you're still talking about that HIQA thing, it's not reliable for the reasons I outlined previously.

Me, I trust the Health Protection and Surveillance Centre, NPHET and the World Health Organisation on the numbers (as a fellow numbers person).

Coyote

Coyote wrote: »

I think anyone reading stats it might be worth watching a the guide on Simpson's paradox, a statistical paradox and ecological fallacy where seemingly contradictory results are implied by a single set of data depending on how it's grouped. The paradox can arise in medical studies, student test scores, and so on.

Must watch for anyone who confidently states “who needs context, the numbers don’t lie”

ACitizenErased

DevilsHaircut wrote: »

If you're still talking about that HIQA thing, it's not reliable for the reasons I outlined previously.

Me, I trust the Health Protection and Surveillance Centre, NPHET and the World Health Organisation on the numbers (as a fellow numbers person).

Do you disagree that there have been people who didn't die from COVID counted in our death figures?

eagle eye

The famous old saying 'your health is your wealth' doesn't seem to matter to a lot of people these days.
They want to press on with life regardless.
We still don't know enough about this virus. If you get it and are asymptomatic it might not be the end of it. It could end up causing you organ trouble in a couple of months time. I'm not saying that will happen but I wouldn't rule it out. I'm convinced this thing is man made.
I understand money is important but it's not worth taking chances with.this virus. Stay safe until it's eradicated or we have a working vaccine is my belief.

Polar101

Deleted User wrote:

Those numbers strike me as rather unusual. Macedonia has had a similar enough number of cases and deaths as us, and although they are going through their peak now it’s still only 150 per day in a country of 2million. If you assume average 2 weeks from Infection to resolution, that’s about 2,000 active cases or current rate idled 1/1000. Yet 24 people out 157 tested positive on that flight. Unless there was a sports team or tour group it would be statistically very unlikely for 24 cases to make it on to that flight at the same time even if they are only detecting 10% of cases in the country.

24 out of 157 sounds extremely high, I'd even wonder if the testing was done properly. In the earlier plane test they tested 60 out of 100 passengers (flight was from Romania) and there were no positive tests. But then again a number of passengers refused the test, so we won't know the true numbers.

Will be interesting to see if anyone on the Skopje flight got infected - obviously anyone testing positive would have gotten infected some days before taking the flight.

DevilsHaircut

ACitizenErased wrote: »

Do you disagree that there have been people who didn't die from COVID counted in our death figures?

If you're claiming that this is the case, the onus is actually on you to prove they didn't.

Again, the World Health Organisation's guidelines are crystal clear in this regard.

theballz

Was out and about today, sadly there are still many people going into shops, pharmacy’s etc without masks

From what I seen today, 90% of these people were over 60+, as leo mentioned today, we are turning into a blame culture, the finger is constantly pointed at young people throughout this pandemic. Today, however, I didn’t see a single young person without a mask.

Credit to them.

ACitizenErased

DevilsHaircut wrote: »

If you're claiming that this is the case, the onus is actually on you to prove they didn't.

Again, the World Health Organisation's guidelines are crystal clear in this regard.

It's been made clear multiple times that COVID deaths in Ireland include both suspected and confirmed causes of death. Nothing for you to really argue against.

Polar101

Polar101 wrote: »

24 out of 157 sounds extremely high, I'd even wonder if the testing was done properly. In the earlier plane test they tested 60 out of 100 passengers (flight was from Romania) and there were no positive tests. But then again a number of passengers refused the test, so we won't know the true numbers.

Will be interesting to see if anyone on the Skopje flight got infected - obviously anyone testing positive would have gotten infected some days before taking the flight.

Would need to know the context of where the passengers came from, but those type of positive rates are what you’d expect within a significant cluster

eagle eye

So kids don't get it they say, send them back to school. It'll all be fine. I don't think so.
https://www.nbcboston.com/news/local/nearly-12000-children-in-new-england-have-tested-positive-for-covid-19/2174891/

Jinglejangle69

eagle eye wrote: »

The famous old saying 'your health is your wealth' doesn't seem to matter to a lot of people these days.
They want to press on with life regardless.
We still don't know enough about this virus. If you get it and are asymptomatic it might not be the end of it. It could end up causing you organ trouble in a couple of months time. I'm not saying that will happen but I wouldn't rule it out. I'm convinced this thing is man made.
I understand money is important but it's not worth taking chances with.this virus. Stay safe until it's eradicated or we have a working vaccine is my belief.

You're best of staying indoors for the foreseeable if you feel that way.

Let the rest of us take our chances.

Jinglejangle69

eagle eye wrote: »

So kids don't get it they say, send them back to school. It'll all be fine. I don't think so.
https://www.nbcboston.com/news/local/nearly-12000-children-in-new-england-have-tested-positive-for-covid-19/2174891/

Who said kids don't hey it here?

You need to stay indoors forever for your sanity.

the corpo

Beasty wrote: »

There's an evil virus that's threatening mankind
Not state of the art, a serious state of the mind
The muggers, the backstabbers, the two faced elite
A menace to society, a social disease

Nice

Non solum non ambulabit

[Deleted User] wrote: »

Must watch for anyone who confidently states “who needs context, the numbers don’t lie”

Totally. Context is everything and often missing in these discussions.

eagle eye

eagle eye wrote: »

So kids don't get it they say, send them back to school. It'll all be fine. I don't think so.
https://www.nbcboston.com/news/local/nearly-12000-children-in-new-england-have-tested-positive-for-covid-19/2174891/

And only 3 deaths in a population of 14,000,000. Far less than those who die of meningitis and many other far more serious conditions in kids. Not minimising covid. Just the impact on children

Non solum non ambulabit

eagle eye wrote: »

So kids don't get it they say, send them back to school. It'll all be fine. I don't think so.
https://www.nbcboston.com/news/local/nearly-12000-children-in-new-england-have-tested-positive-for-covid-19/2174891/

I'm totally confused. Where is the kids don't get it narrative coming from? That hasn't been said since February.

hmmm

Non solum non ambulabit wrote: »

I'm totally confused. Where is the kids don't get it narrative coming from? That hasn't been said since February.

A group of people are inventing fake quotes so that they can say "look! we were right, the government are idiots, kids are getting Covid".

We know kids can get Covid. That's why we need to keep community transmission low, so the chances of them getting it in school are lower.

Beasty

the corpo wrote: »

Nice

It's lyrics from a song

Like I've been doing in post #2 to every thread since thread XII, Xcept for XIII

(It was post #4 in thread XI)

road_high

eagle eye wrote: »

The famous old saying 'your health is your wealth' doesn't seem to matter to a lot of people these days.
They want to press on with life regardless.
We still don't know enough about this virus. If you get it and are asymptomatic it might not be the end of it. It could end up causing you organ trouble in a couple of months time. I'm not saying that will happen but I wouldn't rule it out. I'm convinced this thing is man made.
I understand money is important but it's not worth taking chances with.this virus. Stay safe until it's eradicated or we have a working vaccine is my belief.

Yes that’s very true but for a different reason- they’re obsessing over this virus all the while being 5 stone overweight, taking no exercise, poor diet all resulting in weakened immune systems. Thanks to the PC world we live in it’s not PC to highlight the established link between obesity and Covid 19...but sure let’s close gyms and indoor exercise in lockdown but fast food and offies can keep pumping it out

hmmm

hmmm wrote: »

A group of people are inventing fake quotes so that they can say "look! we were right, the government are idiots, kids are getting Covid".

We know kids can get Covid. That's why we need to keep community transmission low, so the chances of them getting it in school are lower.

The main argument I see regarding kids & Covid is that they are not *usually* badly affected by it; but of course they can so easily pass it on to grandparents, vulnerable people and everyone else in the community. They can potentially be as much vectors of the virus as anybody.

expectationlost

Non solum non ambulabit wrote: »

I'm totally confused. Where is the kids don't get it narrative coming from? That hasn't been said since February.

Sunday Times published headline ‘Pupils pose no risk of spreading Covid’ then changed it to a more correct ‘Pupils pose little risk of spreading Covid’ https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/pupils-pose-no-risk-of-spreading-covid-27q6zfd9l

Josepha Madigan tweeted it https://twitter.com/josephamadigan/status/1292386715244605440

Non solum non ambulabit

expectationlost wrote: »

Sunday Times published headline ‘Pupils pose no risk of spreading Covid’ to a more correct ‘Pupils pose little risk of spreading Covid’ https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/pupils-pose-no-risk-of-spreading-covid-27q6zfd9l

Josepha Madigan tweeted it https://twitter.com/josephamadigan/status/1292386715244605440

Where does it say kids don't get Covid? Am I missing something or what?

Kids get Covid.

It's an established fact.

Again I'll ask who is saying they don't? Not expecting an answer, just deflection as usual.

Dave0301

expectationlost wrote: »

Sunday Times published headline ‘Pupils pose no risk of spreading Covid’ to a more correct ‘Pupils pose little risk of spreading Covid’ https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/pupils-pose-no-risk-of-spreading-covid-27q6zfd9l

Josepha Madigan tweeted it https://twitter.com/josephamadigan/status/1292386715244605440

Just for the record, I would not trust that as a source.

It is based on an unpublished piece of research by PHE based on schools that had primary pupils in UK schools during lockdown.

Therefore, very few pupils and lots of social distancing possible.

There is evidence out there suggesting that teenagers/young adults transmit the virus just as much as adults.

JP Liz V1

I saw many more wearing masks today even kids

JP Liz V1

Knock Shrine in Mayo announced it will be closed on August 15, the Feast of the Assumption, to prevent large gatherings of crowds

eagle eye

road_high wrote:

Yes that’s very true but for a different reason- they’re obsessing over this virus all the while being 5 stone overweight, taking no exercise, poor diet all resulting in weakened immune systems. Thanks to the PC world we live in it’s not PC to highlight the established link between obesity and Covid 19...but sure let’s close gyms and indoor exercise in lockdown but fast food and offies can keep pumping it out

I'm exercising, I don't need s gym to keep myself in shape.
I'm not a fan of the pc crap either.
I'm not a crazy guy that who breaks down everytime there's a bit of avl flu around the place either.
I'm not sending my kids back to school at the end of August. There's enough guinea pigs out there more concerned about money than their health do I'll let them pave the way. If after 8 weeks there is no issue then my kids will return to school.
I'm not a scientist, doctor or any type of medical professional. I'm just a parent who values the health of my kids. I'm a person who reads a lot and everything All I've read about this thing leads me to believe what I posted earlier.
I believe it's man made due to the after affects which is unlike any other virus as in there are organ problems for some people, pims for kids and extreme lethargy for others.
I believe that sending kids back to school is going to result in community transmission exploding.
I believe we don't know enough about this virus yet to make decisions as regards work, education and general socialisation.
I'm a person who has lived my life as a forward thinker. I like to.think I can look into the future a bit by using my education and experience and right now I'm finding it very hard to see our way forward.
I know how we can fix the problem, I called for it in these threads months ago. We have to shut down incoming travel. We need to now go back to stage 1 of the lockdown and stay that way until we have no cases. This will solve our problem, we can then remove travel restrictions with other countries who reach zero cases.
I said many months ago that a lockdown was very tough for everybody but that we should remain in it until we were clear because the economy would recover. We haven't fully opened back up yet but if we do and then end up with another lockdown we are in trouble financially.

bodhrandude

Delighted with all the contributions and updates from all the posters, nothing to add to the pot myself but I find this thread a invaluable resource of information. I have to say its easier to keep up with it now, in the early days it was a blur of posts and 11 to 15 pages to plough through and catch up on. I have my page set at 40 posts, so that was a lot of reading back then, would jump a few pages at a time. Have been taking advantage of the fine weather in Galway and started busking again, its good to play that bodhran.

Away With The Fairies

eagle eye wrote: »

I'm exercising, I don't need s gym to keep myself in shape.
I'm not a fan of the pc crap either.
I'm not a crazy guy that who breaks down everytime there's a bit of avl flu around the place either.
I'm not sending my kids back to school at the end of August. There's enough guinea pigs out there more concerned about money than their health do I'll let them pave the way. If after 8 weeks there is no issue then my kids will return to school.
I'm not a scientist, doctor or any type of medical professional. I'm just a parent who values the health of my kids. I'm a person who reads a lot and everything All I've read about this thing leads me to believe what I posted earlier.
I believe it's man made due to the after affects which is unlike any other virus as in there are organ problems for some people, pims for kids and extreme lethargy for others.
I believe that sending kids back to school is going to result in community transmission exploding.
I believe we don't know enough about this virus yet to make decisions as regards work, education and general socialisation.
I'm a person who has lived my life as a forward thinker. I like to.think I can look into the future a bit by using my education and experience and right now I'm finding it very hard to see our way forward.
I know how we can fix the problem, I called for it in these threads months ago. We have to shut down incoming travel. We need to now go back to stage 1 of the lockdown and stay that way until we have no cases. This will solve our problem, we can then remove travel restrictions with other countries who reach zero cases.
I said many months ago that a lockdown was very tough for everybody but that we should remain in it until we were clear because the economy would recover. We haven't fully opened back up yet but if we do and then end up with another lockdown we are in trouble financially.

What's worse about all this. We were so close to zero a few weeks ago, look at us now. A second lockdown or severe restrictions will be disastrous in so many ways.

fritzelly

Away With The Fairies wrote: »

What's worse about all this. We were so close to zero a few weeks ago, look at us now. A second lockdown or severe restrictions will be disastrous in so many ways.

It's a temporary lockdown to minimize any community spread - nothing more

Onesea

High case numbers and less people in hospital. When does the narrative pick up on this? Empty hospital pandemic won't wash

Wanderer78

Onesea wrote:

High case numbers and less people in hospital. When does the narrative pick up on this? Empty hospital pandemic won't wash

Say wha?

Onesea

Wanderer78 wrote: »

Say wha?

Remember they locked down the city of Leicester.. Lots of cases but no extra people needing hospital. Doctors where left scratching their heads..

Wanderer78

Onesea wrote:

Remember they locked down the city of Leicester.. Lots of cases but no extra people needing hospital. Doctors where left scratching their heads..

Yup, there's still more we don’t know about this virus, than we do know, but we re learning fast, but I'm sure it's still got many tricks up its sleeves yet, it's a slippery little fcuker

Onesea

Wanderer78 wrote: »

Yup, there's still more we don’t know about this virus, than we do know, but we re learning fast, but I'm sure it's still got many tricks up its sleeves yet, it's a slippery little fcuker

Which leads back to the original point

Wanderer78

Onesea wrote:

Which leads back to the original point

Sorry I'm not following?

Onesea

Wanderer78 wrote: »

Sorry I'm not following?

That's ok

Wanderer78

Onesea wrote:

That's ok

Sorry I'm really tired, I ll think about it

mean gene

theballz wrote: »

Was out and about today, sadly there are still many people going into shops, pharmacy’s etc without masks

From what I seen today, 90% of these people were over 60+, as leo mentioned today, we are turning into a blame culture, the finger is constantly pointed at young people throughout this pandemic. Today, however, I didn’t see a single young person without a mask.

Credit to them.

well i have to go the opposite on this -cork city 90 per cent compliant on masks where i was -only people not wearing them teenagers

there ya go basically idiots are idiots regardless of age

Onesea

The obsession with masks. No mask for the battle with the virus, no masks for reducing the virus, then oh we needs masks.

Hector Savage

eagle eye wrote: »

The famous old saying 'your health is your wealth' doesn't seem to matter to a lot of people these days.
They want to press on with life regardless.
We still don't know enough about this virus. If you get it and are asymptomatic it might not be the end of it. It could end up causing you organ trouble in a couple of months time. I'm not saying that will happen but I wouldn't rule it out. I'm convinced this thing is man made.
I understand money is important but it's not worth taking chances with.this virus. Stay safe until it's eradicated or we have a working vaccine is my belief.

Right so let's stay under our beds for decades then...

Hector Savage

Im going out now to get a coffee and croissant, I have to wear a muzzle - fair enough the cafe/bakery but on the street - where I'll meet no one ?? madness...

The pigs are about too, dying to give anyone a ticket ..

CIARAN_BOYLE

Onesea wrote: »

High case numbers and less people in hospital. When does the narrative pick up on this? Empty hospital pandemic won't wash

It's been addressed that testing is much higher now and more asymptomatic cases are being picked up.

I'd imagine that 60 now would be similar to 20 positive cases (and 40 unknown asymptomatic cases) back in March.

Drumpot

https://edition.cnn.com/world/live-news/coronavirus-pandemic-08-11-20-intl/index.html (Link is not ideal As it’s an update link)

Expert says children may be able to spread coronavirus like they spread the common cold
From CNN Health’s Lauren Mascarenhas
Children may be able to spread Covid-19 just as easily as they spread another type of coronavirus -- the common cold, said William Haseltine, a former professor at Harvard Medical School.

“There’s every reason to suspect that this virus, even though it can kill you, behaves pretty much like a cold virus, in terms of transmission. Who drives colds? Children drive colds,” Haseltine told CNN’s Anderson Cooper Monday.
“And that's true of almost all respiratory diseases, including the colds that are caused by coronaviruses. And this is one of those cousins,” he added. “It even uses the same receptor in the nasal passages as one of the cold viruses. It just happens to be a cold virus that also kills.”
Haseltine warned that children can be infected and infect others, so they should wear masks.

He said that children up to 5 years old can be “highly infectious to other people."

"It turns out they have a thousand times more virus in their nose than you need to infect, so they're very, very contagious," Haseltine said.

And stuff like https://www.google.ie/amp/s/www.forbes.com/sites/williamhaseltine/2020/07/31/new-evidence-suggests-young-children-spread-covid-19-more-efficiently-than-adults/amp/ is completely contradicting what Dr Glynn has been saying about schools.

https://www.google.ie/amp/s/www.irishexaminer.com/news/arid-40030508.html%3ftype=amp

Dr Ronan Glynn, the acting chief medical officer, said while there will be outbreaks in schools when they reopen, only 2% of all reported cases are children and it appears “they don't transmit very effectively to other children or adults".

He said he was not downplaying the situation but was “not overly concerned".

I’m sorry but Glynn is talking through his hat. It appears at best you can say children do not seem to suffer as badly with COVID symptoms. The question on how much they can spread is unclear and not definitive, if it was clear cut Glynn would be able to provide more evidence then just his opinion. I really hate being lied to and this shakes my confidence in authorities.

I think we need schools opened and I do think it’s important for children (and parents) on multiple levels. But any decisions made and the reasons why need to be transparent and honest. This is a dishonest way of encouraging parents to let their children go to school that makes me really question the motives for certain information being promoted. We all need to be able to trust the authorities, I don’t trust them when it comes to schools, they are looking at the benefits of schools opening and working backwards to underplay the virus in a school environment to make it more palatable to concerned parents.

Wanderer78

Onesea wrote: »

The obsession with masks. No mask for the battle with the virus, no masks for reducing the virus, then oh we needs masks.

known to be effective in these kind of situations, our supply chains were not sufficiently prepared for such an event, it ll more than likely be addressed as the pandemic progresses

Hector Savage wrote: »

Im going out now to get a coffee and croissant, I have to wear a muzzle - fair enough the cafe/bakery but on the street - where I'll meet no one ?? madness...

The pigs are about too, dying to give anyone a ticket ..

dont wear it if you dont want to, we need the gardai, always

Gentleman Off The Pitch

Non solum non ambulabit wrote: »

I'm totally confused. Where is the kids don't get it narrative coming from? That hasn't been said since February.

Well i don't know about a narrative that kids dont get it, but up until at least recently there have been many posts in the schools going back thread labelling teachers as lazy, craven, ordering them to get back to work like the rest of us and dismissing their concerns about the plans to return to school with big definitive statements that children are "low risk". Low risk to become infected and low risk to transmit the virus seemed to be stated interchangeably.

These statements were made even while there was already mounting evidence to the contrary and despite the fact that anyone with even a bit of sense realises that even the experts do not have the full picture about this novel virus yet.

caveat emptor

Do we honestly think that people are quarantining?
Do we even care?
Will we care when schools can't open safely.
Finland testing and mandatory quarantine for anyone coming from a country with over 10 per 100k of population.
We are currently at
Spain is levelling off but it's positivity rate is high at 5% suggesting decrease in testing relative to cases. This is suspect in my view given they now have the highest prevalence in eu. (not including Luxembourg).
Maybe testing is more targeted but generally if the positivity rate is increasing then it suggests that testing is not keeping up with spread.

• Two countries (Romania and Spain) had a weekly test positivity of 5% or higher.

https://covid19-surveillance-report.ecdc.europa.eu


To people who say that Spanish situation is localised etc.
That's bull**** based on the fact that 2 / 3 Spanish people don't leave the country for a foreign holiday which means they holiday at home and sure why wouldn't they.

Home to the famous Costa del Sol, as well as cultural cities such as Seville, Cordoba or Granada
(with the famous Alhambra), Andalusia is the top domestic destination for Spanish tourists,
which is logical considering their overall preference for sun/beach and cultural holidays

Why is it ticking up now though?

While June and July remain the most popular months for travel, the figures also show that 156,385 Irish residents travelled to Spain in August, 2015 alone. The five most popular destinations account for 90 per cent of Irish tourism to Spain. They are the Canary Islands, Andalucía, Cataluña and the Valencia Region, followed by the Balearic Islands (ranked in order of volume of visitors).

http://www.limelight.ie/spain/


I honestly don't believe enough people are quarantining.
I also believe that it's not necessarily their fault if they have paid for holidays
and they have mortgages / rent to pay etc. so 2 weeks unpaid is not an option.
I'd rather just be real about what's probably going on and address it instead of going AGAIN "Sure what could we have done"

https://www.researchandmarkets.com/reports/4990341/tourism-source-market-insight-spain-2020?utm_source=dynamic&utm_medium=BW&utm_code=s932dk&utm_campaign=1356972+-+2020+Tourism+Source+Market+Insight+-+Spain&utm_exec=anwr281bwd

Hector Savage

CIARAN_BOYLE wrote: »

It's been addressed that testing is much higher now and more asymptomatic cases are being picked up.

I'd imagine that 60 now would be similar to 20 positive cases (and 40 unknown asymptomatic cases) back in March.

According to Fernando Simon in Spain (some epi... epidem.... epidemo... .... a mathematician) - he reckons Spain are picking up about 90% of cases now, but only 10% back in March.

It does make sense when you see the far less death/hospital rate, but how he is coming to 90% ???