Covid 19 Part XXI-27,908 in ROI (1,777 deaths) 6,647 in NI (559 deaths)(22/08)Read OP

US2 · 19-08-2020 03:06PM

seanb85 wrote: »

1200 - 1800 have died as a result of maybe 5% of the population being infected. If 80% were to be infected this would translate to 20,000 to 30,000 deaths (in a functional health service).

Also the 5% figure for possible infections can't be taken as fact. The deaths however can.

The deaths can't be taken as fact! Many of them happened to have covid at time of death but didn't die because of it.

Non solum non ambulabit · 19-08-2020 03:06PM

Irish Steve wrote: »

Any comment on the 770,000 that have died worldwide?

As I think I already said, good bad or complete garbage, I don't know, and I don't need to know. All I need to know is that everyone is doing everything they can to minimise the increase in deaths that are happening as a result of this virus, and given that this is the most complex and severe pandemic to hit the world in hundreds of years, we don't have clear routes on how to defeat it, or how to respond to it.

It could well be that in a couple of years time, when everyone can look back with 20/20 hindsight, cold analysis may well indicate that some of the decisions made at the time were wrong, but I'd rather that decisions were made in the light of the best information available at the time, and by the people with the training and background in the medical field.

Doing nothing is not an option, unless we want to see the massive spike in numbers that are starting to occur in other places.

The predicted deaths were absolutely farcical and have resulted in huge damage to people worldwide.

Wolf359f · 19-08-2020 03:08PM

ACitizenErased wrote: »

78 positive tests last 24hrs from 5,685 tests

So my count the past 7 days:
691 Positive Tests
671 New cases announced (excluding the new cases today)
So any figure over 20 just wont make sense, unless they are not using the same 24hr period (should be up until midnight each day for both positive tests and cases announced)

I wonder if that's where the discrepancy is creeping in?
Some figures we're getting could could be either 36hr time frame, followed by 12hr time frame?

Queried · 19-08-2020 03:10PM

Has anyone here bought a reusable mask with a clear panel for wearing for the hearing impaired? I have been looking online but it's hard to find a supplier who isn't experiencing significant delays or is based in the US or further afield.

caveat emptor · 19-08-2020 03:12PM

US2 wrote: »

The deaths can't be taken as fact! Many of them happened to have covid at time of death but didn't die because of it.

Care to explain all of the Excess deaths?

https://twitter.com/BadCOVID19Takes/status/1295859099637342208?s=20

Icantthinkof1 · 19-08-2020 03:14PM

Hurrache wrote: »

Seems like it does, we've had them on both Android and iOS phones here. Do you have notification permissions granted to the app?

One thing I'm surprised about is the low number of checks done, but I guess that's a reflection of the amount of people I'm in contact with long enough.

Just checked my settings there on iOS and notifications allowed for the app but I have never had a weekly report- don’t want to delete it and reinstall it in case it deletes any of my contacts prior to deleting it
It says contact tracing is active so I’m presuming I’d still get an alert if I was identified as a close contact?

Dayor Knight · 19-08-2020 03:15PM

So, reading up on what happened yesterday.... NPHET gave a list of strong recommendations and the Government watered them down. Sh*t. This mantra of "scientists recommend and Government decide" is now a fig leaf for ignoring the best advice available, for political reasons.
We are in trouble now. Inexcusable to appoint a team of experts on this critical health issue and then prevaricate on following their strong recommendations.

Message to Govt - stop the prevarication, follow the advice (and wash your hands).

khalessi · 19-08-2020 03:16PM

Queried wrote: »

Has anyone here bought a reusable mask with a clear panel for wearing for the hearing impaired? I have been looking online but it's hard to find a supplier who isn't experiencing significant delays or is based in the US or further afield.

Have 2 ordered from US will arrive mid September

Queried · 19-08-2020 03:18PM

khalessi wrote: »

Have 2 ordered from US will arrive mid September

Yeah earliest I can find is around that time too, thanks

Oranage2 · 19-08-2020 03:21PM

Dayor Knight wrote: »

So, reading up on what happened yesterday.... NPHET gave a list of strong recommendations and the Government watered them down. Sh*t. This mantra of "scientists recommend and Government decide" is now a fig leaf for ignoring the best advice available, for political reasons.
We are in trouble now. Inexcusable to appoint a team of experts on this critical health issue and then prevaricate on following their strong recommendations.

Message to Govt - stop the prevarication, follow the advice (and wash your hands).

I doubt the advice would be popular, sounds basically just another lockdown

mirrorwall14 · 19-08-2020 03:23PM

Icantthinkof1 wrote: »

Just checked my settings there on iOS and notifications allowed for the app but I have never had a weekly report- don’t want to delete it and reinstall it in case it deletes any of my contacts prior to deleting it
It says contact tracing is active so I’m presuming I’d still get an alert if I was identified as a close contact?

I’m iOS too. I’ve everything enabled and it’s the first I’ve heard of a weekly report

19-08-2020 03:24PM

plodder wrote: »

That would be 5,000 people in hospital. I don't know what the current number is, as hpsc.ie doesn't seem to publish any useful current statistics, but according to worldometer there are 8 serious/critical cases, which I guess means hospitalised.

I totally get that we want to slow the spread and the recent increase is somewhat alarming. But, we still have enormous scope to "live with it" without overwhelming the hospital system, it seems to me.

Here you go:
https://covid19ireland-geohive.hub.arcgis.com/

Official data hub and far more reliable than worldometers

plodder · 19-08-2020 03:27PM

seanb85 wrote: »

Our health system in the last few days has had about 400 spare beds across the entire public system. We have about 15,000 beds total. 5,000 hospitalisations at the same time would collapse the system, not to mention that thousands more health workers would inevitably become infected and would not be able to work.

We are in a worse position than many other countries in Europe because of how poor our health service is in normal times.

Perhaps, but you just plucked that figure out of the air. I don't see how it's likely that we would go from 8 to 5,000 in such a short space of time without being able to react. Nobody is (seriously) suggesting that we just let the virus rip through the community. Even Sweden isn't doing that.

timmy_mallet · 19-08-2020 03:28PM

Dayor Knight wrote: »

So, reading up on what happened yesterday.... NPHET gave a list of strong recommendations and the Government watered them down. Sh*t. This mantra of "scientists recommend and Government decide" is now a fig leaf for ignoring the best advice available, for political reasons.
We are in trouble now. Inexcusable to appoint a team of experts on this critical health issue and then prevaricate on following their strong recommendations.

Message to Govt - stop the prevarication, follow the advice (and wash your hands).

There is a balance. A dermatologists will tell you never go in the sun, 0 skin cancer, they've done their job. Then you have the knock-on problems with lack of Vitamin D.

It's not always in the govts. or societies best interest to follow the experts advice - said experts were saying masks weren't necessary, then they changed their mind, the science didn't change in the intervening period, but society wanted masks. Experts, like any one, have bias and need challenging.

Edit; and it's in NPHETS interest to get to 0 covid. That's essentially their mandate. Why wouldn't they call for total lockdown?

19-08-2020 03:28PM

seanb85 wrote: »

Our health system in the last few days has had about 400 spare beds across the entire public system. We have about 15,000 beds total. 5,000 hospitalisations at the same time would collapse the system, not to mention that thousands more health workers would inevitably become infected and would not be able to work.

We are in a worse position than many other countries in Europe because of how poor our health service is in normal times.

Where does the idea that 5,000 people would end up in hospital at the same time come from? For that to happen, based on current data, you would need approx 125,000 cases per week

What Username Guidelines · 19-08-2020 03:29PM

mirrorwall14 wrote: »

I’m iOS too. I’ve everything enabled and it’s the first I’ve heard of a weekly report

Same - my wife gets them weekly too, but not me. They're not from the tracking app, they're from Covid notifications within the operating system itself.

It says something along the lines of "Your phone detected 0 exposures this week". She did get one notification saying "..detected 1 exposure.." but it needs multiple keys from a single device to make her a close contact. She may have just briefly walked by someone in the park, etc. Not sure why they send it.

If you are in actual close contact, you'll see a notification from the Covid app itself that looks like this:

Lockscreen:

In App:

jammiedodgers · 19-08-2020 03:30PM

MOR316 wrote: »

Eamon Ryan leaking it He's just happy to be there. He's like the guy you bring on a roadtrip so you and your other mate can rip the piss out of to pass the time

Ha Eamon Ryan is Will from the Inbetweeners :pac:

caveat emptor · 19-08-2020 03:30PM

What Username Guidelines wrote: »

Also interesting to pit Peru (hard lockdown) and Brazil (less hard), and graph it with Italy (hard lockdown) Sweden (voluntary, less harsh, "open"). There appears to be reporting issues in Peru, with the sharp upticks, but even still, you'd expect significant differences in locked down vs open societies.

.....

Why do the curves follow each other so closely? There seems to be a seasonal aspect to this. Ok, it doesn't just go away in the summer and come back in winter, but there are questions to be asked in terms of how much of an impact a lockdown is having.

What Username Guidelines wrote: »

Nice comparison with one of the least hit countries in Europe. But I'm not talking numbers, I'm looking at the progress of the epidemic and how it's similar in shape in different latitudes, no matter what action is taken.

So why is Sweden coming down at all? Why do most European countries peak in ~April and follow a trend down, Denmark included? Peru locked down at a similar time and didn't see the same shaped curve, they see the same as Brazil.

Sorry I was referring to the part where you said lockdown vs no lockdown. Italy didn't know what it was dealing with and as the first country to have an uncontrolled outbreak in Europe it isn't a valid country to make a comparison regarding lockdown vs no lockdown.

Sweden didn't lockdown. Denmark did. There was a big difference in deaths. Saying Denmark wasn't hit as hard is not valid either because they locked down and lessened the impact.

They share similar latitudes also. People saying it's not seasonal are discounting the fact respiratory virus' peak in winter at northern latitudes. This is sufficiently contagious that it is not dampened to zero like flu but equally it's probably much more proficient in winter. That's speculation, we haven't been through winter with this but we are about to find out. Hopefully the mitigation in place his sufficient to halt the spread.

Strumms · 19-08-2020 03:31PM

There are people doing that... businesses, lonely fûckers, money people, there are lots of people who have no issue with the virus ripping through people, families, communities as long as they can make money and the business they set up with their daddy and brother in 1983 is intact, surviving, profitable and healthy... PEOPLE are not healthy ? well welcome to Ireland, they don’t care.

yourdeadwright · 19-08-2020 03:33PM

Dayor Knight wrote: »

So, reading up on what happened yesterday.... NPHET gave a list of strong recommendations and the Government watered them down. Sh*t. This mantra of "scientists recommend and Government decide" is now a fig leaf for ignoring the best advice available, for political reasons.
We are in trouble now. Inexcusable to appoint a team of experts on this critical health issue and then prevaricate on following their strong recommendations.

Message to Govt - stop the prevarication, follow the advice (and wash your hands).

I'm not a fan of the government and they have made mess of this but of course the Government didn't do exactly what recommended,

You realise to they have a Country to run ,NPHET don't take into account any social or economic problems that might a rise they just tell you what's best to stop the spread of the virus,

ACitizenErased · 19-08-2020 03:34PM

Wolf359f wrote: »

So my count the past 7 days:
691 Positive Tests
671 New cases announced (excluding the new cases today)
So any figure over 20 just wont make sense, unless they are not using the same 24hr period (should be up until midnight each day for both positive tests and cases announced)

I wonder if that's where the discrepancy is creeping in?
Some figures we're getting could could be either 36hr time frame, followed by 12hr time frame?

Or there's private testing involved, which is just ludicrous imo

plodder · 19-08-2020 03:35PM

Deleted User wrote: »

Here you go:
https://covid19ireland-geohive.hub.arcgis.com/

Official data hub and far more reliable than worldometers

Great site. Strange that it doesn't seem to be linked (obviously) from the government covid19 page or hpsc.ie

fritzelly · 19-08-2020 03:36PM

Icantthinkof1 wrote: »

Is the app meant to send a weekly notification? If so I don’t think mine is working properly as I have never received any weekly report?

On android and never had a notification either, all permissions enabled

spookwoman · 19-08-2020 03:37PM

https://twitter.com/rtenews/status/1296093463029719041?s=20

JP Liz V1 · 19-08-2020 03:39PM

I feel I cough more wearing a mask but needs most

blowitupref · 19-08-2020 03:40PM

ACitizenErased wrote: »

78 positive tests last 24hrs from 5,685 tests

Works out as no more than 58 cases should be reported today.

JP Liz V1 · 19-08-2020 03:40PM

spookwoman wrote: »

https://twitter.com/rtenews/status/1296093463029719041?s=20

Is their plants not shut down?

seanb85 · 19-08-2020 03:40PM

JP Liz V1 wrote: »

I feel I cough more wearing a mask but needs most

Is it a reusable one? Might be the detergent if you've been washing it in the machine.

caveat emptor · 19-08-2020 03:43PM

Dayor Knight wrote: »

So, reading up on what happened yesterday.... NPHET gave a list of strong recommendations and the Government watered them down. Sh*t. This mantra of "scientists recommend and Government decide" is now a fig leaf for ignoring the best advice available, for political reasons.
We are in trouble now. Inexcusable to appoint a team of experts on this critical health issue and then prevaricate on following their strong recommendations.

Message to Govt - stop the prevarication, follow the advice (and wash your hands).

It's an interesting point. They are saying they have to balance the economy with public health.

I get that but you don't have an economy when you don't do public health. It turns out people don't want to contract it so the economy grinds to a halt while people who can minimise their risk stay at home.

Only solution is vaccine, effective treatment or go for zero tolerance with quarantine and mandatory testing.

We are told but we are an island and it's actually part of being Irish to travel. Have no idea what that means. Every country in the world travels. Most far more than us.

spookwoman · 19-08-2020 03:43PM

JP Liz V1 wrote: »

Is their plants not shut down?

Says it all in the article

Covid 19 Part XXI-27,908 in ROI (1,777 deaths) 6,647 in NI (559 deaths)(22/08)Read OP

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