Covid 19 Part XXI-27,908 in ROI (1,777 deaths) 6,647 in NI (559 deaths)(22/08)Read OP

Hurrache · 19-08-2020 11:51AM

Sleety_Rain wrote: »

I'm sorry but the dog on the street knows yesterday's presser was delayed until the release of the big Covid case number yesterday.

And that's why dogs aren't in decision making positions.

spookwoman · 19-08-2020 11:51AM

Hold your horses was putting the numbers all together

Queried · 19-08-2020 11:52AM

Faith Fancy Lava wrote: »

Have a weekend away booked with friends next weekend (rescheduled from April no less). Obviously with new restrictions this isn't allowed as we'll have more than 3 people from 3 different households. Should I wait for the company who own the holiday home to cancel on me?

Hi Faith Fancy Lava,

That's a shame, unfortunate timing! I would contact them yourself just in case. They may think several of ye are from the one household and presume it to be the case if you don't get in touch.

Edit: this if course is if you want to cancel, I wouldn't see them cancelling on you if that's what you mean

Strumms · 19-08-2020 11:52AM

KaneToad wrote: »

Do you not think schools deserve prioritisation?

The virus doesn’t prioritize or discriminate...

The virus doesn’t say.. “ ahhh look, little kids, we will leave them alone “

The virus doesn’t say.. “ ahhh look, little kids, but Mammy has asthma “

The virus DOES say.. “ ahhh look, little kids, with living cells to infect, to multiply to make certain ill or worse.

With the behaviors of kids it’s going to spread like wildfire..

caveat emptor · 19-08-2020 11:53AM

What Username Guidelines wrote: »

Also interesting to pit Peru (hard lockdown) and Brazil (less hard), and graph it with Italy (hard lockdown) Sweden (voluntary, less harsh, "open"). There appears to be reporting issues in Peru, with the sharp upticks, but even still, you'd expect significant differences in locked down vs open societies.

Why do the curves follow each other so closely? There seems to be a seasonal aspect to this. Ok, it doesn't just go away in the summer and come back in winter, but there are questions to be asked in terms of how much of an impact a lockdown is having.

Nice comparison with the worst hit country in Europe. It's a combination of different behaviours. The extend of the spread. Differences in demographics.

Better comparison would be with Denmark. The difference is the area under the curve. That's a huge amount of people who are dying every day that are not dying in a country beside with similar culture. i.e unnecessary deaths.

I'm growing tired of false equivalencies.

robbiezero · 19-08-2020 11:56AM

spookwoman wrote: »

Hold your horses was putting the numbers all together

Can you add another column with the title "Big Announcements" and values showing Yes/No

:)

AlmightyCushion · 19-08-2020 11:57AM

stephenjmcd wrote: »

Well seeing as there was 136 outstanding up to yesterday from Sunday & Monday there already was a fair few to be added in yesterday

They wouldn't have known that on Saturday.

Eod100 · 19-08-2020 11:59AM

seanb85 wrote: »

Reality is, nearly six months in, the testing capacity isn't good enough. And the tracing is under pressure when we're averaging only 80 cases a day. And our isolation facilities aren't sufficient. And the school plan is worthless.

The things you need to have in place to "live with the virus" aren't there.

It was a huge effort from the public that got cases down to single figures but this was done via a very crude and simple measure, lockdown. This should have given us time to get things ready but the people in charge have failed at this in nearly every area.

Heard Prof Paddy Mallon on RTE earlier. Think he said here turnaround time seems to be from swabbing to test result as opposed to request for test which would be more accurate. Didn't there had been huge delays in getting a test til now but guess even if was a day say it does add 5o average turnaround time

Eod100 · 19-08-2020 12:02PM

Strumms wrote: »

The virus doesn’t prioritize or discriminate...

The virus doesn’t say.. “ ahhh look, little kids, we will leave them alone “

The virus doesn’t say.. “ ahhh look, little kids, but Mammy has asthma “

The virus DOES say.. “ ahhh look, little kids, with living cells to infect, to multiply to make certain ill or worse.

With the behaviors of kids it’s going to spread like wildfire..

It's also daft to think schools could close after a few weeks kids sent home for few weeks only to risk inevitably spreading it to parents and family either way. It's a once in a lifetime global pandemic (hopefully at least), think we need to be flexible about when and if schools go back tbh. Could at least wait until January say.

AlmightyCushion · 19-08-2020 12:03PM

spookwoman wrote: »

Hold your horses was putting the numbers all together

This just proves the conspiracy wrong. Friday the 07/08 they announced the lockdown in Kildare, Laois and Offaly and on that day cases roughly equaled swabs. Yet the following day they announced 174 cases with only 128 swabs. So they had another 50ish cases they could have added into Friday's numbers for the big announcement but they didn't.

Friday 14/08 there was 67 cases and 138 swabs. Then on Saturday there was 200 cases with 122 swabs. Yet there was no big announcement on Saturday.

LuasSimon · 19-08-2020 12:03PM

completedit wrote: »

Well said.

Honestly it's so demeaning to relegate people to underprivileged abused migrants. These lads and girls are the equivalent of the Irish who go and work in New York in pubs and restaurants. Hours are ****e and conditions not great but they make good money and have a life experience. It's so arrogant for a country like Ireland to treat these people from a fellow EU country as if they're de facto surpressed second class citizens. Its a short hop on a flight to Latvia. They come here to make some dosh, it's not depressing. It's amazing for them, ****e work but they can then afford to pay for studies or buy a house or drive around Riga in a brand new whip. I get that often it comes from a good place but it unsettles me that there seems to be a view that these peopl exist purely as "migrant workers" and have no other option. Migration across EU in a world of low cost travel has changed. These people are here on their own terms and more power to them. If I was them I'd want to enjoy the time a bit more but we have Irish who do similar, who go away and work like crazy for a few years and come back with a heap of cash.

These people are employed because most can’t speak English , are unsure ( not told ) of any entitlements , don’t get their proper breaks etc etc . These jobs were far better paid jobs twenty years ago but Larry Goodman and his equals are paying ****t money for tough jobs to make more and more money to route through his Luxembourg tax exile status . Larry won’t pay the farmers , the workers or tax in this country but he’s worth close on 3 billion .
He could pay his staff a living wage and still make loads but he’s so greedy he’d prefer to fly in the poorest people in Europe and pay them the lowest he can with no sick pay and spread covid in the process so he can get to 3 billion wealth . He will be flying people in from Ethiopia and routing their pay through Syria next .

seanb85 · 19-08-2020 12:05PM

Eod100 wrote: »

Heard Prof Paddy Mallon on RTE earlier. Think he said here turnaround time seems to be from stabbing to test result as opposed to request for test which would be more accurate. Didn't there had been huge delays in getting a test til now but guess even if was a day say it does add 5o average turnaround time

Even access to tests is shambolic, mad locations that you need a car to get to. I know the ambulance service are helping, but that too is limited. Semi permanent test locations should be everywhere, hundreds of them, I don't care if they only do 10 tests a day in a location, you need them there for when you need to do 100. In 12 months time getting a Covid test will still be a thing, but seemingly we decided huge amounts of stuff based on this lasting 3-6 months.

stephenjmcd · 19-08-2020 12:05PM

AlmightyCushion wrote: »

They wouldn't have known that on Saturday.

And ? For Saturday there was 71 outstanding from Friday with 122 postive swabs on Sat.

Another clear discrepancy. They've out by a small amount many times but not to the level of the last few days.

I'm not claiming conspiracy I'm saying there's a fundamental issue in reporting at the moment when the number issued as "Newly confirmed cases" is not the number of new cases found in the last 24hrs.

Let's see if it's back on track today

What Username Guidelines · 19-08-2020 12:06PM

caveat emptor wrote: »

Nice comparison with the worst hit country in Europe. It's a combination of different behaviours. The extend of the spread. Differences in demographics.

Better comparison would be with Denmark. The difference is the area under the curve. That's a huge amount of people who are dying every day that are not dying in a country beside with similar culture. i.e unnecessary deaths.

I'm growing tired of false equivalencies.

Nice comparison with one of the least hit countries in Europe. But I'm not talking numbers, I'm looking at the progress of the epidemic and how it's similar in shape in different latitudes, no matter what action is taken.

So why is Sweden coming down at all? Why do most European countries peak in ~April and follow a trend down, Denmark included? Peru locked down at a similar time and didn't see the same shaped curve, they see the same as Brazil.

ACitizenErased · 19-08-2020 12:12PM

17 in hospital as of 8am, reduction of 3 on last night. Majority of discharges occur on Wednesdays.

seamus · 19-08-2020 12:13PM

I wonder are the discrepancies / time delays between swabs and cases something to do with notifying the individuals?

That is, a positive swab might be reported in near real time back to the HSPC. But by the time that report filters back to the hospital, to the GPs, then to the HSE to notify them of a new case, there's a 24-48 hour delay? It might also be possible that the HSE cannot be notified of a new case until the individual themselves has been notified?

Hurrache · 19-08-2020 12:14PM

Strumms wrote: »

The virus doesn’t prioritize or discriminate...

The virus doesn’t say.. “ ahhh look, little kids, we will leave them alone “

The virus doesn’t say.. “ ahhh look, little kids, but Mammy has asthma “

The virus DOES say.. “ ahhh look, little kids, with living cells to infect, to multiply to make certain ill or worse.

With the behaviors of kids it’s going to spread like wildfire..

The virus also says look at all these people mingling, there's our way in. Its spread can be minimised.

ACitizenErased · 19-08-2020 12:15PM

seamus wrote: »

I wonder are the discrepancies / time delays between swabs and cases something to do with notifying the individuals?

That is, a positive swab might be reported in near real time back to the HSPC. But by the time that report filters back to the hospital, to the GPs, then to the HSE to notify them of a new case, there's a 24-48 hour delay? It might also be possible that the HSE cannot be notified of a new case until the individual themselves has been notified?

The story about the Tipp factory receiving positive results came out Saturday as far as I know. Released on Tuesday.

What Username Guidelines · 19-08-2020 12:16PM

seamus wrote: »

I wonder are the discrepancies between swabs and cases something to do with notifying the individuals?

That is, a positive swab might be reported in near real time back to the HSPC. But by the time that report filters back to the hospital, to the GPs, then to the HSE to notify them of a new case, there's a 24-48 hour delay? It might also be possible that the HSE cannot be notified of a new case until the individual themselves has been notified?

I'm thinking similar - they also need to verify which are new cases vs old cases and gather req'd info. They obviously work off different timelines (midnight - midnight, 3pm - 3pm, or similar), and there is an into-gathering exercise which appears to slow at weekends, but there is no discernible pattern which is odd.

MOR316 · 19-08-2020 12:18PM

Hurrache wrote: »

The virus also says look at all these people mingling, there's our way in. Its spread can be minimised.

You people are idiots!

The virus cannot talk

seamus · 19-08-2020 12:19PM

What Username Guidelines wrote: »

I'm thinking similar - they also need to verify which are new cases vs old cases and gather req'd info. They obviously work off different timelines (midnight - midnight, 3pm - 3pm, or similar), and there is an into-gathering exercise which appears to slow at weekends, but there is no discernible pattern which is odd.

If you think about it, the lab obviously has no idea the nature of the swab. They have a relatively anonymous ID, they do the test, get the result. Result gets pushed back up through the chain.

I get a text on my phone, but that system has no idea if this is a new test; I could have been tested yesterday, or last week or last month.

The only person who can confirm "this is a new case of Covid" is the person's doctor - their GP or their hospital consultant. So it's only at the point that they receive the test result and act on it, that a notification to the HSE can take place.

So it's easy to see how you could have 260 positive swabs that don't get translated into "new cases" for a day or two. This would also mean that we could expect today's figures to be relatively low, though we don't know yet how many swabs were taken yesterday.

s1ippy · 19-08-2020 12:20PM

What Username Guidelines wrote: »

Nice comparison with one of the least hit countries in Europe. But I'm not talking numbers, I'm looking at the progress of the epidemic and how it's similar in shape in different latitudes, no matter what action is taken.

So why is Sweden coming down at all? Why do most European countries peak in ~April and follow a trend down, Denmark included? Peru locked down at a similar time and didn't see the same shaped curve, they see the same as Brazil.

Their society is organised completely differently to ours. Remember how it went in Italy because of large family gatherings? Imagine that, except you also have a huge variety of standards of education to contend with and families can be 30 people living under the one roof. If there's a roof.

The poorest in Peru and throughout the world are always the hardest hit. Behaviour and keeping informed is what wins out against this. Which is why I sometimes can't help but laugh at some of the people on this thread thinking they're "raging against the machine" and being so smart by fighting the messenger instead of the virus.

To those people, I say: there will come a moment of clarity when you realise that you're not getting one over on anyone except yourself, your friends and family.

What Username Guidelines · 19-08-2020 12:21PM

ACitizenErased wrote: »

17 in hospital as of 8am, reduction of 3 on last night. Majority of discharges occur on Wednesdays.

Also in last nights report, Mater had 2 in ICU at 6.30pm, but 1 patient total at 8pm. ICU has also dropped from 7 to 6 on dashboard this morning. Hopefully a discharge will be reflected in tonight's figures, and not a death.

Hurrache · 19-08-2020 12:23PM

MOR316 wrote: »

You people are idiots!

The virus cannot talk

Not that we know of yet, there's still a lot of unknown unknowns.

What Username Guidelines · 19-08-2020 12:27PM

seamus wrote: »

If you think about it, the lab obviously has no idea the nature of the swab. They have a relatively anonymous ID, they do the test, get the result. Result gets pushed back up through the chain.

I get a text on my phone, but that system has no idea if this is a new test; I could have been tested yesterday, or last week or last month.

The only person who can confirm "this is a new case of Covid" is the person's doctor - their GP or their hospital consultant. So it's only at the point that they receive the test result and act on it, that a notification to the HSE can take place.

So it's easy to see how you could have 260 positive swabs that don't get translated into "new cases" for a day or two. This would also mean that we could expect today's figures to be relatively low, though we don't know yet how many swabs were taken yesterday.

Exactly, I assume HSPC have plenty of due diligence to do beyond the positive swab result, which if they didn't do, would result in many many more denotifications later.

s1ippy wrote: »

Which is why I sometimes can't help but laugh at some of the people on this thread thinking they're "raging against the machine" and being so smart by fighting the messenger instead of the virus.

To those people, I say: there will come a moment of clarity when you realise that you're not getting one over on anyone except yourself, your friends and family.

Maybe I haven't had that moment of clarity yet, because I don't really get what you're saying here?

AlmightyCushion · 19-08-2020 12:28PM

stephenjmcd wrote: »

And ? For Saturday there was 71 outstanding from Friday with 122 postive swabs on Sat.

Another clear discrepancy. They've out by a small amount many times but not to the level of the last few days.

I'm not claiming conspiracy I'm saying there's a fundamental issue in reporting at the moment when the number issued as "Newly confirmed cases" is not the number of new cases found in the last 24hrs.

Let's see if it's back on track today

I agree that the numbers don't match but my issue is with people thinking they are holding them back for the big announcements. They wouldn't have needed to do that for yesterday's announcement. They could have just pointed at the large number of cases over the previous few days.

seamus wrote: »

I wonder are the discrepancies / time delays between swabs and cases something to do with notifying the individuals?

That is, a positive swab might be reported in near real time back to the HSPC. But by the time that report filters back to the hospital, to the GPs, then to the HSE to notify them of a new case, there's a 24-48 hour delay? It might also be possible that the HSE cannot be notified of a new case until the individual themselves has been notified?

I believe Ronan Glynn said before something about holding off reporting of numbers in clusters until the whole cluster has been tested or contact traced. I can't remember the exact details but it was something like that.

spookwoman · 19-08-2020 12:28PM

What Username Guidelines wrote: »

Also in last nights report, Mater had 2 in ICU at 6.30pm, but 1 patient total at 8pm. ICU has also dropped from 7 to 6 on dashboard this morning. Hopefully a discharge will be reflected in tonight's figures, and not a death.

Hub data
6 in ICU 1 Discharged and 1 admitted
17 in hospital, 2 admitted and 3 discharged

Strumms · 19-08-2020 12:30PM

Eod100 wrote: »

It's also daft to think schools could close after a few weeks kids sent home for few weeks only to risk inevitably spreading it to parents and family either way. It's a once in a lifetime global pandemic (hopefully at least), think we need to be flexible about when and if schools go back tbh. Could at least wait until January say.

Could wait till January and see how the state of play is then.

A good idea come January would be a reduced curriculum. With covid PE isn’t going to be possible you’d think.. if schools just ninjad religion, PE and maybe whatever else that isn’t viewed as absolutely necessary subject, maybe music, Art, home Economics... and just focus on Maths, English, History, Geography, Languages, Science... it’s less time on school property for teachers and students ... have them doing 10.00-3.30 say every day including a food break...

Continuous assessment forms their leaving cert grades. No pressure on the state and students to be up and running with a sat leaving cert. a leaving is no way fûcking practical with things as they are, continuous assessment over ‘calculated grades’.

lee_baby_simms · 19-08-2020 12:30PM

Strumms wrote: »

The virus doesn’t prioritize or discriminate...

The virus doesn’t say.. “ ahhh look, little kids, we will leave them alone “

The virus doesn’t say.. “ ahhh look, little kids, but Mammy has asthma “

The virus DOES say.. “ ahhh look, little kids, with living cells to infect, to multiply to make certain ill or worse.

With the behaviors of kids it’s going to spread like wildfire..

Then the virus says "****, none of these kids have ACE-2 receptors so we have no way into their cells to infect them."

Then the virus says "Lets find one of those old age homes that these idiots didn't protect back in March and April."

s1ippy · 19-08-2020 12:31PM

What Username Guidelines wrote: »

Exactly, I assume HSPC have plenty of due diligence to do beyond the positive swab result, which if they didn't do, would result in many many more denotifications later.

Maybe I haven't had that moment of clarity yet, because I don't really get what you're saying here?

Sorry, not a personal jibe at you...

I meant like when people are getting annoyed about the restrictions or the high numbers and they do that by fighting the people who are imparting the information.

Covid 19 Part XXI-27,908 in ROI (1,777 deaths) 6,647 in NI (559 deaths)(22/08)Read OP

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