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Covid 19 Part XXI-27,908 in ROI (1,777 deaths) 6,647 in NI (559 deaths)(22/08)Read OP

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Comments

  • #4502
    spookwoman
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 10,059 ✭✭✭✭spookwoman


    iguana wrote: »
    Where are the 18 in the mushroom factory? They were known about yesterday evening but not in yesterday’s figures and not in today’s.

    Day behind, the 18 will show on the gov.ie report tomorrow. Same thing happened with waterford the other day.


  • #4503
    expectationlost
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 12,521 ✭✭✭✭expectationlost


    Gael23 wrote: »
    Case in a supermarket in Wexford today, staff member tested positive and told nobody, now another staff member has tested positive
    case in wexford nursing home
    https://t.co/J9hQttCH5q


  • #4504
    [Deleted User]
    Posts: 10,049 ✭ [Deleted User]


    Boggles wrote: »
    Cratloe cluster was nothing to do with Kilkee.

    That was a party for 15 year old ne'er do wells.

    Cratloe traced to a party near UL.

    Restaurant in Bunratty closed with apparent ties to Cratloe, a cluster (secondary) developed from the restaurant, which is now closed.

    Information I had was they were all linked through the kilkee party. But that’s from chatting to a few people from west Clare who seem to love nothing better than speculation about who got what from whom when and where


  • #4505
    Gruffalux
    Closed Accounts Posts: 3,023 ✭✭✭Gruffalux


    Boggles wrote: »
    If we had 10,000 cases a day for 2 months or even part of 2 months that would translate at the most conservative estimate to 100-200 hospitalizations a day.

    It would have crashed emergency care.

    It would depend on actual hospitalisation rate of actual numbers. We do not know that actual rate. You are suggesting 1 to 2% of cases there. Maybe it is much lower ? But regardless of how it does not make sense apparently, one has to find a way to squeeze 250, 000 cases into the time March to July 2020. As this is the preliminary reports of seroprevalence rate of covid antibodies as per testing.


  • #4506
    Santy2015
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,065 ✭✭✭Santy2015


    The echo won’t say that there hasn’t been a case in cork over the last few days no?
    https://www.echolive.ie/corknews/Covid-19-latest-further-rise-in-cases-in-Cork-7d9aba9c-75fe-46ad-aef3-1512bb0f1fa1-ds


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  • #4507
    ACitizenErased
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 11,760 ✭✭✭✭ACitizenErased


    Santy2015 wrote: »
    The echo won’t say that there hasn’t been a case in cork over the last few days no?
    https://www.echolive.ie/corknews/Covid-19-latest-further-rise-in-cases-in-Cork-7d9aba9c-75fe-46ad-aef3-1512bb0f1fa1-ds
    Haven't had a case for last two days, only 2 day before that, and none the day before that. :confused:


  • #4508
    The HorsesMouth
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 512 ✭✭✭The HorsesMouth


    Boggles wrote: »
    If we had 10,000 cases a day for 2 months or even part of 2 months that would translate at the most conservative estimate to 100-200 hospitalizations a day.

    It would have crashed emergency care.

    Not if the extra 9000 cases a day were asymptomatic so therefore people didn't get tested.

    We didn't know the big picture back then.


  • #4509
    [Deleted User]
    Posts: 10,049 ✭ [Deleted User]


    froog wrote: »
    yeah there's no fair way of doing it other than a sit down exam. i honestly don't see the big problem with exams. leaving cert exams are always done in pretty good social distancing, everyone spaced at least 2 metres from each other to prevent cheating. most just turn up straight from home and go right to the seat. give people staggered arrival times and it's easily done.

    Surely seen as schools were empty that could have spaced the students out over the entire school With a handful per classroom and used the teachers to supervise. Would have been far better than what we have now.


  • #4510
    fritzelly
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 18,157 ✭✭✭✭fritzelly


    iamwhoiam wrote: »
    Leo , Simon and Tony kept us all on our toes
    Where is MM when the numbers are rising and anxiety increasing ?
    No leadership , no one around who gives a toss

    Is MM still walking the wild atlantic way?


  • #4511
    Gruffalux
    Closed Accounts Posts: 3,023 ✭✭✭Gruffalux


    Boggles wrote: »
    If we had 10,000 cases a day for 2 months or even part of 2 months that would translate at the most conservative estimate to 100-200 hospitalizations a day.

    It would have crashed emergency care.

    Plus I said 10000 at absolute peak. Ie that one day. 8000 another. 5000 400 etc. One could simply multiply all previous cases in a day by 9 or 10. And that would give the up and down.


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  • #4512
    Goldengirl
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 16,065 ✭✭✭✭Goldengirl


    Sleety_Rain wrote: »
    Just wondering how Matiu O’Tuathaill is still allowed on the radio ?

    He has proven many times to be a complete and utter joker (finding words not to say liar)

    what has he done to upset you?


  • #4513
    ixoy
    Moderators, Entertainment Moderators Posts: 18,045 Mod ✭✭✭✭ixoy


    I'm heading for a holiday on Wednesday morning (in Ireland) so really hoping there's nothing overly negative tomorrow in terms of closure giving me next to no notice to cancel bookings. I'm surprised there's no hints or anything yet.


  • #4514
    Boggles
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 42,548 ✭✭✭✭Boggles


    Gruffalox wrote: »
    It would depend on actual hospitalisation rate of actual numbers. We do not know that actual rate. You are suggesting 1 to 2% of cases there. Maybe it is much lower ?

    We have a higher hospitalization rate at the moment and it's largely under 45s being infected.


  • #4515
    gifted
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,053 ✭✭✭gifted


    fritzelly wrote: »
    Is MM still walking Away?


    Fixed your post there


  • #4516
    KrustyUCC
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,077 ✭✭✭KrustyUCC


    Santy2015 wrote: »
    The echo won’t say that there hasn’t been a case in cork over the last few days no?
    https://www.echolive.ie/corknews/Covid-19-latest-further-rise-in-cases-in-Cork-7d9aba9c-75fe-46ad-aef3-1512bb0f1fa1-ds

    Nah they have to take the doom and gloom angle


  • #4517
    spookwoman
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 10,059 ✭✭✭✭spookwoman


    Cork number since start of month to the 15th
    1567 0
    1569 2
    1570 1
    1572 2
    1575 3
    1575 0
    1582 7
    1582 0
    1585 3
    1587 2
    1587 0
    1589 2
    1592 3
    1595 3
    1595 0


  • #4518
    [Deleted User]
    Posts: 10,049 ✭ [Deleted User]


    Goldengirl wrote: »
    Not really. More asymptomatic cases could mean more spread to others in community. Some of these could be a week into their infection and be just as infectious in those first few days , and no red flags like a temp or cough to slow them down.

    At least symptomatic cases might restrict their contact as they feel unwell.

    it is good that so many being picked up are asymptomatic , but this is happening where contacts are in effect , captive , as in a workplace setting.
    it is not what is happening in the community cases , where so many close contacts are not going forward for testing .

    Not very much transmission occurs outside of enclosed environments for a sustained period of time, or those who don’t meet the 2metre 15 min rule. If we controlled all spread except the ones that occur from brief contact, where most are wearing masks anyway, there would be no virus in a short time


  • #4519
    caveat emptor
    Closed Accounts Posts: 5,134 ✭✭✭caveat emptor


    Gruffalox wrote: »
    I firmly believe that we had extremely high case numbers in March and April. Like 10,000 a day at peak. We came through that unknowingly in a way. It would horrify us now.
    It is the only way we can attempt to match seroprevalance results with their implied numbers. (T cells would give numbers like 20,000, 30,000, even 40,000 as a daily tally back at peak if T cell theory is correct (though I await more evidence on the T cell theory). )

    The lockdown brought the virus infections right down. The measures like masks, SD, hygiene etc are helping keep numbers down but what also helps is the virus itself is not rampant like it obviously eas becoming in February. Many Older people are still semi-cocooning. We have much lower numbers now. Really so much lower even though it sounds like 200 is a fifth of peak daily cases. It is more likely a fiftieth of peak daily cases. Really.
    Much higher detection. Reflected in lower hospitalisations. Reflected in almost no deaths. We have done really well.

    There is a recent uptick. Time will tell if it will veer towards the incredible growth rates we saw in March. Contributing factors are quite different now. Less ignorance. More systems in place. But exponential growth could still happen. No one knows. This is almost the only time I have ever wished I had a time machine. I would key in late November in the settings...

    For sure testing was deliberately repressed via non realistic screening criteria and numbers far higher than reported.
    This Is however pure speculation with t-cell thrown in to sound more credible.

    Keep playing to the gallery and we shall see what the winter brings. The trend is fairly clear even with all the measures adopted and it's not even September. Hoping the A-team t-cells come out in force and save us from the pandemic.


  • #4520
    MOR316
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,253 ✭✭✭MOR316


    ixoy wrote: »
    I'm heading for a holiday on Wednesday morning (in Ireland) so really hoping there's nothing overly negative tomorrow in terms of closure giving me next to no notice to cancel bookings. I'm surprised there's no hints or anything yet.

    There would have been a leak by now if they were going to do that


  • #4521
    Gael23
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 12,153 ✭✭✭✭Gael23


    drunkmonkey wrote: »
    They don't have to tell their employer, Absolutely bonkers they can have mandatory what ever they like but this is still happening.

    If if it had been a staff member in a nursing home it could have cost lives


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  • #4522
    eagle eye
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 40,628 ✭✭✭✭eagle eye


    One thing people seem to be forgetting when they are comparing April and March to now is the limited number of tests back then and the high percentage of people being tested almost certainly having it.

    We got to a great place about six weeks ago. If we didn't change anything we'd still be there. Gotta roll things back to where they were then. The big issue is the money men who don't like people being at home not producing for them. They want their cash regardless and if a few hundred thousand extra die worldwide they don't care.

    People need to get away from letting money rule their lives. As long as you do that you aren't really having a great life.

    I'm one of those being very careful and being mixed up with a doom monger on occasion. I have hope that things will eventually be sorted but I'm thinking it'll be next March or April unfortunately. You need to get the government to a position where they have no choice but to bend to the will of the people and we aren't there yet. It'll take another cluster**** or three before they feel obliged to do the right thing. Then we can get on the right path and finally get rid of this thing.

    And for anybody saying that becoming Covid free is pie in the sky. You to me are the type of person that gives up. It's clearly possible and it just takes everybody working off the same hymn sheet to make it happen.


  • #4523
    Goldengirl
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 16,065 ✭✭✭✭Goldengirl


    Deleted User wrote: »
    Not very much transmission occurs outside of enclosed environments for a sustained period of time, or those who don’t meet the 2metre 15 min rule. If we controlled all spread except the ones that occur from brief contact, where most are wearing masks anyway, there would be no virus in a short time

    Yes , assuming those are adhering to the guidelines outside of work?


  • #4524
    KrustyUCC
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,077 ✭✭✭KrustyUCC


    MOR316 wrote: »
    There would have been a leak by now if they were going to do that

    Hope you're right

    They can't really have hotels open, no tourists and Irish people on a travel ban

    Might as well just shut hotels and restaurants again


  • #4525
    Gruffalux
    Closed Accounts Posts: 3,023 ✭✭✭Gruffalux


    Boggles wrote: »
    We have a higher hospitalization rate at the moment and it's largely under 45s being infected.

    You are still going by thinking I say 10000 cases daily. I do not.
    Plus IFR that comes up again and again is about 0.65%. 1800 as percent of 250000 is 0.72%


    So the deaths number adds up to about the presumptive case number of seroprevalence rate if one accepts the oft found IFR.

    And to squeeze in those cases needs our reported numbers x 9 daily in the past.


  • #4526
    JP Liz V1
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 91,302 ✭✭✭✭JP Liz V1


    fritzelly wrote: »
    Is MM still walking the wild atlantic way?
    gifted wrote: »
    Fixed your post there

    I read something else than walking :o
    https://forumofgames.com/




  • #4527
    froog
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,784 ✭✭✭froog


    Deleted User wrote: »
    Surely seen as schools were empty that could have spaced the students out over the entire school With a handful per classroom and used the teachers to supervise. Would have been far better than what we have now.

    yup. they well and truly dropped the ball with that one.


  • #4528
    [Deleted User]
    Posts: 10,049 ✭ [Deleted User]


    Boggles wrote: »
    If we had 10,000 cases a day for 2 months or even part of 2 months that would translate at the most conservative estimate to 100-200 hospitalizations a day.

    It would have crashed emergency care.

    Many studies are converging on an ifr of 0.65%, which were it to hold true for us, implies about 270,000 cases. The preliminary details on serology testing also suggested c240,000 infections. Given the older population have borne the brunt it may be a bit lower, but I would find it hard to go much lower than 200k based on what we know both globally and within Ireland, especially as these studies come from areas with similar demographics and issues with care homes. Add up to 200,000 cases to our numbers and apply a similar distribution to chat we have seen and you would not be too far of a 10k peak


  • #4529
    political analyst
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,987 ✭✭✭political analyst


    eagle eye wrote: »
    One thing people seem to be forgetting when they are comparing April and March to now is the limited number of tests back then and the high percentage of people being tested almost certainly having it.

    We got to a great place about six weeks ago. If we didn't change anything we'd still be there. Gotta roll things back to where they were then. The big issue is the money men who don't like people being at home not producing for them. They want their cash regardless and if a few hundred thousand extra die worldwide they don't care.

    People need to get away from letting money rule their lives. As long as you do that you aren't really having a great life.

    I'm one of those being very careful and being mixed up with a doom monger on occasion. I have hope that things will eventually be sorted but I'm thinking it'll be next March or April unfortunately. You need to get the government to a position where they have no choice but to bend to the will of the people and we aren't there yet. It'll take another cluster**** or three before they feel obliged to do the right thing. Then we can get on the right path and finally get rid of this thing.

    And for anybody saying that becoming Covid free is pie in the sky. You to me are the type of person that gives up. It's clearly possible and it just takes everybody working off the same hymn sheet to make it happen.

    The mortality rate for Covid is very low. This pandemic is not of Ebola proportions.


  • #4530
    podgeandrodge
    Site Banned Posts: 5,975 ✭✭✭podgeandrodge


    brendanwalsh wrote: »
    It’s disingenuous to say we have to accept numbers at this level and this is a level the hospitals can manage.

    Despite months and months of research, there is still almost zero treatments available for anyone who gets this and becomes unwell other than supportive care.

    Remdesivir does not affect mortality.

    Steroids may have some role but these are often given anyway in iCU setting when patients are so ill anyway their adrenals are shut down.

    There is no treatment. No cure.

    We cannot let this virus rip through our most vulnerable just because we are all tired and want life to be normal again.

    Some might say it has ripped through a lot of our most vulnerable at this stage. I don't think society long term will continue to accept restrictions to protect the vulnerable, but will move to place more responsibility on the vulnerable to protect themselves, selfish as that sounds, that's what society will do long term if there is no vaccine.


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  • #4531
    podgeandrodge
    Site Banned Posts: 5,975 ✭✭✭podgeandrodge


    eagle eye wrote: »
    I don't give a toss about thanks. I'll always speak my mind whether it's a popular opinion or not.

    Right now I'm not very popular because I'm against the schools reopening because it's only going to lead to a big outbreak of covid-19.

    I suppose when you say things like that anybody with half a brain can see what will happen when the schools reopen then it kinda doesn't make you popular. :D

    Anyways I'm glad to have many guinea pigs who are going to test out the school set up and I'll send mine back when it's proven safe. That'll probably be around March or April next year is my thinking on it.

    I agree with you for once!


This discussion has been closed.
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