Covid 19 Part XXI-27,908 in ROI (1,777 deaths) 6,647 in NI (559 deaths)(22/08)Read OP

Gruffalux · 17-08-2020 08:42PM

lucernarian wrote: »

Great post by someone who knows what they're talking about.

I don't. Just my opinion from how I see things. Could be wrong but I think it is logical.

Be right back · 17-08-2020 08:43PM

Stheno wrote: »

I saw my doctor on March 9th with extremely bad sinusitius, cough, blocked nose/eyes/sore throat, tiredness

No temperature, so no test

Six months and three consultations later "you probably had covid in March, and you are seeing long term effects"

Still no temperature

I was in close contact with a cluster, had mild symptoms (touch of a sore throat and a cough). No test, just told to isolate. This was in March as well.

17-08-2020 08:44PM

spookwoman wrote: »

Copied because its subscription to see published the 25th March

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/ireland/irish-news/coronavirus-the-latest-major-adjustment-to-testing-eligibility-explained-1.4211788

Before March 12th, you had to be symptomatic and either be a close contact of a confirmed case of Covid-19 or to have travelled from an affected area.

Between that date and now, the testing criteria were significantly looser as the health services ramped up their strategy of “community testing”. All you needed to become eligible for testing was to display one symptom.

Now they have changed the criteria again.
Firstly, the list of symptoms has changed. Patients now have to have a fever and a symptom of respiratory disease, i.e. a cough or shortness of breath. Testing will also be carried out on those with respiratory symptoms who have been in contact with a confirmed or probable Covid-19 case in the days before symptoms onset.

If that bar is met, you must then fall into a list of priority categories, which include being a close contact of a confirmed case, a healthcare worker, an at risk group (those with diabetes, chronic lung disease, et cetera), household contacts of those at-risk groups, staff or residents in long-term care facilities, prison staff and inmates where self-isolation may be difficult and pregnant women.

The criteria was loosened mid March, but the capacity wasn’t there and most referred were never tested for days sometimes up to 2 weeks later , that’s why it was significantly tightened again in April. Was only finally loosened in June

bennyl10 · 17-08-2020 08:44PM

What do we realistically think is gonna be recommended tomorrow?
Nationwide lockdown? Or more localised measures?

Ban on alcohol sales?

froog · 17-08-2020 08:45PM

Stheno wrote: »

I saw my doctor on March 9th with extremely bad sinusitius, cough, blocked nose/eyes/sore throat, tiredness

No temperature, so no test

Six months and three consultations later "you probably had covid in March, and you are seeing long term effects"

Still no temperature

what the hell? find a new GP.

Frankie19 · 17-08-2020 08:46PM

Yeah the Mushroom factory is a strange one. the Journal is reporting 29 positives from the factory albeit not all test results are back yet out of the 170 staff. Yet people on here seem to think positive number is alot higher from the factory.

GooglePlus · 17-08-2020 08:48PM

Stheno wrote: »

I saw my doctor on March 9th with extremely bad sinusitius, cough, blocked nose/eyes/sore throat, tiredness

No temperature, so no test

Six months and three consultations later "you probably had covid in March, and you are seeing long term effects"

Still no temperature

What are the long term effects that you're experiencing at the minute?

spookwoman · 17-08-2020 08:48PM

Be right back wrote: »

I was in close contact with a cluster, had mild symptoms (touch of a sore throat and a cough). No test, just told to isolate. This was in March as well.

1st april Back around then shortage of testing kits, long delays in getting results and only testing around 1,500 a day or so

https://www.rte.ie/news/coronavirus/2020/0401/1127767-coronavirus-ireland-testing/

tests per day from 14th march to 31st march
946
1469
1564
978
2631
1516
1775
3376
2941
2206
1616
1397
1928

iamwhoiam · 17-08-2020 08:48PM

Leo , Simon and Tony kept us all on our toes
Where is MM when the numbers are rising and anxiety increasing ?
No leadership , no one around who gives a toss

17-08-2020 08:48PM

drunkmonkey wrote: »

Mushroom factory in Tipperary says number of asymptomatic positive results is a 'concern'
https://m.independent.ie/world-news/coronavirus/mushroom-factory-in-tipperary-says-number-of-asymptomatic-positive-results-is-a-concern-39457359.html

Mmm are we concerned a high number of people aren't sick, happier if they were? Not sure what to think...

The best thing about these clusters is the number of asymptomatic cases we are seeing. For one it tells us that we won’t expect the same number of negative outcomes as we saw when this cohort were not being tested. But also the amount of secondary clusters is also reduced as the onward transmissions from these cases are stopped

Stheno · 17-08-2020 08:49PM

froog wrote: »

what the hell? find a new GP.

It was the week they brought in the "must have a temperature and close contact" rule

No temperature meant no test, as did no close contacts, I had been working from home.

second consultation was for hayfever, third was when they declared I must have had it

Gael23 · 17-08-2020 08:50PM

Case in a supermarket in Wexford today, staff member tested positive and told nobody, now another staff member has tested positive

drunkmonkey · 17-08-2020 08:56PM

Gael23 wrote: »

Case in a supermarket in Wexford today, staff member tested positive and told nobody, now another staff member has tested positive

They don't have to tell their employer, Absolutely bonkers they can have mandatory what ever they like but this is still happening.

Gruffalux · 17-08-2020 08:56PM

Gael23 wrote: »

Case in a supermarket in Wexford today, staff member tested positive and told nobody, now another staff member has tested positive

Though I don't know if this tale is true or not for the craic I googled "Covid notifiable disease" and got this quaint article from late February 2020 which feels like a different time/space continuum ago.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.irishtimes.com/news/ireland/irish-news/harris-signs-order-to-designate-coronavirus-as-a-notifiable-disease-1.4180022?mode=amp

17-08-2020 08:57PM

froog wrote: »

interesting u-turn on exam results across the water. it seems like they tried to stick all students into a bell curve or similar in dishing out grades. which is probably accurate in most years. after mass uproar and threats of litigation they will now return to teachers grades. students might end up in the same position now with university places as all grades will now almost certainly be overestimated by teachers scared to give bad results.

https://www.theguardian.com/education/2020/aug/17/a-levels-gcse-results-england-based-teacher-assessments-government-u-turn

Very unfortunate for the class with the honest or tough teacher, or the individual who the teacher was consciously or unconsciously biased against.

My french teacher kept at me to go back to pass for the leaving. I believe she honestly believed I would struggle with the honours paper. Got a C1 and knew myself I would not have major trouble.

froog · 17-08-2020 08:57PM

bennyl10 wrote: »

What do we realistically think is gonna be recommended tomorrow?
Nationwide lockdown? Or more localised measures?

Ban on alcohol sales?

it's a difficult decision no question. we're not at the stage of full national lockdown yet, but certainly we need action as this will only get worse.

i think the smart move is a county travel ban nationwide (must remain in your home county) with garda checkpoints unless essential for your job so that if things get worse they can move to specific county lockdowns and contain an outbreak with high confidence it is already contained within that county. minimum disruption, most people won't even notice it and puts us in a strong position going forward. they hinted at this with the colour coded system last week.

some more workplace auditors for the HSA would also help.

and get much stricter with travel into the country. it's not an issue yet but why wait for it to be? i mean it's how we got the damn thing in the first place.

Boggles · 17-08-2020 09:00PM

Deleted User wrote: »

The Kilkee party and limerick cluster all linked to Cratloe. Local(s) went to the party in Kilkee with crowd from limerick and brought it back, apparently. Cases in lahinch too linked to the same party

Cratloe cluster was nothing to do with Kilkee.

That was a party for 15 year old ne'er do wells.

Cratloe traced to a party near UL.

Restaurant in Bunratty closed with apparent ties to Cratloe, a cluster (secondary) developed from the restaurant, which is now closed.

Deeper Blue · 17-08-2020 09:01PM

bennyl10 wrote: »

What do we realistically think is gonna be recommended tomorrow?
Nationwide lockdown? Or more localised measures?

Ban on alcohol sales?

Shutting the meat factories would be the sensible thing to do

So they'll probably close restaurants and hairdressers again

What Username Guidelines · 17-08-2020 09:01PM

Gruffalox wrote: »

I firmly believe that we had extremely high case numbers in March and April. Like 10,000 a day at peak. We came through that unknowingly in a way. It would horrify us now.
It is the only way we can attempt to match seroprevalance results with their implied numbers. (T cells would give numbers like 20,000, 30,000, even 40,000 as a daily tally back at peak if T cell theory is correct (though I await more evidence on the T cell theory). )

The lockdown brought the virus infections right down. The measures like masks, SD, hygiene etc are helping keep numbers down but what also helps is the virus itself is not rampant like it obviously eas becoming in February. Many Older people are still semi-cocooning. We have much lower numbers now. Really so much lower even though it sounds like 200 is a fifth of peak daily cases. It is more likely a fiftieth of peak daily cases. Really.
Much higher detection. Reflected in lower hospitalisations. Reflected in almost no deaths. We have done really well.

There is a recent uptick. Time will tell if it will veer towards the incredible growth rates we saw in March. Contributing factors are quite different now. Less ignorance. More systems in place. But exponential growth could still happen. No one knows. This is almost the only time I have ever wished I had a time machine. I would key in late November in the settings...

Great post. You’re right it would horrify us now. If we could somehow have seen all cases in March, we might in fact be relieved now to be seeing a tiny % rather than 20% of cases at peak..

It’s a rough estimate that doesn’t take into account age, but we’ve seen Saturday with ~20% of peak, but ICU is at 5% of peak and hospitalisations are at approx ~2% of peak. It’s even hard to work out the “just wait 2 weeks” as hospitalisations peaked on April 15th and cases 8 days later, rather than earlier. The dataset is messy but a conservative guess would be 5,000-6,000 at peak per day, perhaps many many more as per your post.

froog · 17-08-2020 09:01PM

Deleted User wrote: »

Very unfortunate for the class with the honest or tough teacher, or the individual who the teacher was consciously or unconsciously biased against.

My french teacher kept at me to go back to pass for the leaving. I believe she honestly believed I would struggle with the honours paper. Got a C1 and knew myself I would not have major trouble.

yeah there's no fair way of doing it other than a sit down exam. i honestly don't see the big problem with exams. leaving cert exams are always done in pretty good social distancing, everyone spaced at least 2 metres from each other to prevent cheating. most just turn up straight from home and go right to the seat. give people staggered arrival times and it's easily done.

17-08-2020 09:02PM

froog wrote: »

what the hell? find a new GP.

They had strict criteria. I know someone who returned from Austria at the start of March and had a temp and cough. Were told they were not a close contact of a confirmed case or had not been to Italy so we’re not eligible. They took about 5 days to recover and were tired for two weeks, but described it as somewhere between a bad cold and flu

Renjit · 17-08-2020 09:02PM

bennyl10 wrote: »

Ban on alcohol sales?

Why do you need ban on alcohol sales? One can drink at home as much as they want or in moderation at bar observing the guidelines.

Ll31 · 17-08-2020 09:03PM

froog wrote: »

it's a difficult decision no question. we're not at the stage of full national lockdown yet, but certainly we need action as this will only get worse.

i think the smart move is a county travel ban nationwide (must remain in your home county) with garda checkpoints unless essential for your job so that if things get worse they can move to specific county lockdowns and contain an outbreak with high confidence it is already contained within that county. minimum disruption, most people won't even notice it and puts us in a strong position going forward. they hinted at this with the colour coded system last week.

some more workplace auditors for the HSA would also help.

and get much stricter with travel into the country. it's not an issue yet but why wait for it to be? i mean it's how we got the damn thing in the first place.

Would be a bit ridiculous after telling people to holiday at home continually.... to chge it to 'now you've just thrown your money away, tough. ' And how would u justify it using evidence?

froog · 17-08-2020 09:04PM

Stheno wrote: »

It was the week they brought in the "must have a temperature and close contact" rule

No temperature meant no test, as did no close contacts, I had been working from home.

second consultation was for hayfever, third was when they declared I must have had it

very unprofessional for them to say you probably had covid with long term effects though!

ninebeanrows · 17-08-2020 09:05PM

Just wondering how Matiu O’Tuathaill is still allowed on the radio ?

He has proven many times to be a complete and utter joker (finding words not to say liar)

Boggles · 17-08-2020 09:05PM

Gruffalox wrote: »

I firmly believe that we had extremely high case numbers in March and April. Like 10,000 a day at peak. We came through that unknowingly in a way. It would horrify us now.

If we had 10,000 cases a day for 2 months or even part of 2 months that would translate at the most conservative estimate to 100-200 hospitalizations a day.

It would have crashed emergency care.

Renjit · 17-08-2020 09:05PM

Deleted User wrote: »

They had strict criteria. I know someone who returned from Austria at the start of March and had a temp and cough. Were told they were not a close contact of a confirmed case or had not been to Italy so we’re not eligible. They took about 5 days to recover and were tired for two weeks, but described it as somewhere between a bad cold and flu

The current asymptomatic are because of more testing now and relaxed criteria.

PopTarts · 17-08-2020 09:06PM

Did someone say there is about 150 cases in Tipperary to be confirmed tomorrow or waiting results?

What numbers are we looking at tomorrow? I see they seem to be holding back numbers..

Goldengirl · 17-08-2020 09:06PM

Deleted User wrote: »

The best thing about these clusters is the number of asymptomatic cases we are seeing. For one it tells us that we won’t expect the same number of negative outcomes as we saw when this cohort were not being tested. But also the limo of secondary clusters is also reduced as the onward transmissions from these cases are stopped

Not really. More asymptomatic cases could mean more spread to others in community. Some of these could be a week into their infection and be just as infectious in those first few days , and no red flags like a temp or cough to slow them down.

At least symptomatic cases might restrict their contact as they feel unwell.

it is good that so many being picked up are asymptomatic , but this is happening where contacts are in effect , captive , as in a workplace setting.
it is not what is happening in the community cases , where so many close contacts are not going forward for testing .

17-08-2020 09:06PM

Gael23 wrote: »

Case in a supermarket in Wexford today, staff member tested positive and told nobody, now another staff member has tested positive

Should be gross misconduct. Not reporting a transmissible disease during a public health emergency.

Covid 19 Part XXI-27,908 in ROI (1,777 deaths) 6,647 in NI (559 deaths)(22/08)Read OP

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