Covid 19 Part XXI-27,908 in ROI (1,777 deaths) 6,647 in NI (559 deaths)(22/08)Read OP

is_that_so · 16-08-2020 05:59PM

podgeandrodge wrote: »

So what is Govt. goal now? Is it still 'flatten the curve' (aren't we reasonably flat?) Or is it practical elimination strategy?

Originally we were told the goal was not to overwhelm the health services, and the original phases I understood to be in keeping with that ie that there was an acceptance that we'd live with a few cases once we had it under control.

But now we're keeping things closed even those that didn't contribute to case problems. Like we are afraid of cases going up, rather than managing that situation as and if/when it occurs.

As I said elsewhere I reckon that number is 10-20 a day, with clusters largely under control.

normanoffside · 16-08-2020 06:00PM

MattS1 wrote: »

Great numbers! What are you hoping for?

Number or numbers?
Is zero deaths not a good number?

GooglePlus · 16-08-2020 06:00PM

Humberto Salazar wrote: »

The real important figure. A bit high yesterday. More realistic today. Keep it like that, we'll be back open in a few weeks.

25 CT yesterday, so don't get too excited about the low number today. That's 28 results over the weekend confirmed as community transmission or 28 people who we can't trace back to a known outbreak.

How the numbers play out over the next week or two will shed light on the effectiveness of the current measures that have been put in place.

wadacrack · 16-08-2020 06:00PM

Turtwig wrote: »

This nonsense of mystery about deaths and hospitalisation was doing the rounds in Florida several weeks back. Please don't import this horsesh1t to Ireland. Cases rises, then hospitalisation rises, then deaths rise. They don't occur at the same time and if you keep cases low and infective doses low then you'll keep the hospital figures low as well. If cases spike significantly more serious cases of COVID will spike.

Hospitalizations now beginning to increase in France.People need to stop believing unfounded theories

niallo27 · 16-08-2020 06:01PM

Rte have outdone themselves now "Coronavirus will be with us 'for all eternity' - expert"

http://www.rte.ie/news/2020/0816/1159506-coronavirus-experts-this-week/

froog · 16-08-2020 06:02PM

Turtwig wrote: »

This nonsense of mystery about deaths and hospitalisation was doing the rounds in Florida several weeks back. Please don't import this horsesh1t to Ireland. Cases rises, then hospitalisation rises, then deaths rise. They don't occur at the same time and if you keep cases low and infective doses low then you'll keep the hospital figures low as well. If cases spike significantly more serious cases of COVID will spike.

can't believe how people seem to have forgotten the lag between cases and deaths.

GooglePlus · 16-08-2020 06:02PM

niallo27 wrote: »

Rte have outdone themselves now "Coronavirus will be with us 'for all eternity' - expert"

http://www.rte.ie/news/2020/0816/1159506-coronavirus-experts-this-week/

Our sun won't even be with us that long.

Atlantic Dawn · 16-08-2020 06:02PM

Turtwig wrote: »

This nonsense of mystery about deaths and hospitalisation was doing the rounds in Florida several weeks back. Please don't import this horsesh1t to Ireland. Cases rises, then hospitalisation rises, then deaths rise. They don't occur at the same time and if you keep cases low and infective doses low then you'll keep the hospital figures low as well. If cases spike significantly more serious cases of COVID will spike.

US has an obesity issue.

0gac3yjefb5sv7 · 16-08-2020 06:03PM

normanoffside wrote: »

Number or numbers?
Is zero deaths not a good number?

Be glad it's not 500 today after 200 yesterday.

niallo27 · 16-08-2020 06:03PM

The Unbearables wrote: »

Horrible numbers yet again.

200 down to 66 and Zero deaths, hardly horrible.

spookwoman · 16-08-2020 06:03PM

froog wrote: »

can't believe how people seem to have forgotten the lag between cases and deaths.

Yep, can take weeks to succumb and some cases months

Gael23 · 16-08-2020 06:04PM

I don’t like the way the CMO is talking

igCorcaigh · 16-08-2020 06:04PM

Non solum non ambulabit wrote: »

Yes indeed.

Deaths and ICU admissions are dropping all over Europe. The data is very convincing that something is happening. I don't know what it is but a few months after the virus hits an area the pattern is the same. High deaths, high ICU admissions then a tapering off.

I certainly can't explain it but it is interesting.

It is interesting.

If I might hazard a guess, I might say that as lockdowns are lifting, the virus is spreading in the general population, mostly younger people, and we know how it takes quite some time for background spread to translate into hospital cases. Weeks to months.

ACitizenErased · 16-08-2020 06:04PM

Non solum non ambulabit wrote: »

Yes indeed.

Deaths and ICU admissions are dropping all over Europe. The data is very convincing that something is happening. I don't know what it is but a few months after the virus hits an area the pattern is the same. High deaths, high ICU admissions then a tapering off.

I certainly can't explain it but it is interesting.

The lack of hospital admission is quite surprising tbh.

Here is the amount of cases in the last two weeks, plus the hospitalisation rate per HPSC data, and the expected number of hospitalisations.

0-4 - +42 - HR of 10.21% gives expected admissions of 4 people
5-14 - +74 - HR of 4.33% gives expected admissions of 3 people
15-24 - +200 - HR of 3.69% gives expected admissions of 7 people
25-34 - +263 - HR of 4.37% gives expected admissions of 11 people
35-44 - +199 - HR of 5.82% gives expected admissions of 12 people
45-54 - +158 - HR of 9.49% gives expected admissions of 15 people
55-64 - +83 - HR of 14.97% gives expected admissions of 12 people
65-74 - +42 - HR of 31.85% gives expected admissions of 13 people
75-84 - +14 - HR of 32.43% gives expected admissions of 5 people
85+ - +7 - HR of 20.09% gives expected admissions of 1 person

Total expected admissions: 83 people in last two weeks.
Actual admissions: +26

Atlantic Dawn · 16-08-2020 06:04PM

niallo27 wrote: »

Rte have outdone themselves now "Coronavirus will be with us 'for all eternity' - expert"

http://www.rte.ie/news/2020/0816/1159506-coronavirus-experts-this-week/

Could give an air of Mad Max to the world when the money runs out and people have to join gangs to survive.

hotmail.com · 16-08-2020 06:04PM

Consideration for new measures is to be taken this week.

s1ippy · 16-08-2020 06:04PM

Humberto Salazar wrote: »

The real important figure. A bit high yesterday. More realistic today. Keep it like that, we'll be back open in a few weeks.

That's of what they know so far, many more under investigation.

ACitizenErased · 16-08-2020 06:05PM

Gael23 wrote: »

I don’t like the way the CMO is talking

He's responding to that bar on Dame Lane.

Stheno · 16-08-2020 06:06PM

hotmail.com wrote: »

Consideration for new measures is to be taken this week.

Where did you see that?

CalamariFritti · 16-08-2020 06:06PM

Turtwig wrote: »

This nonsense of mystery about deaths and hospitalisation was doing the rounds in Florida several weeks back. Please don't import this horsesh1t to Ireland. Cases rises, then hospitalisation rises, then deaths rise. They don't occur at the same time and if you keep cases low and infective doses low then you'll keep the hospital figures low as well. If cases spike significantly more serious cases of COVID will spike.

So far the graphs on worldometer simply don't support that. Yes some will still need to be hospitalised and sadly some still will die but that linearity that you you're describing just doesn't seem to be there anymore.

Look at Spain just as example, many more. And its not just a week or two. Cases started rising 6 weeks ago.

Edit: Just watching 6news. Dr Glynn just called it out. 1100 cases in the last two weeks. Didnt mention that we're still only having a dozen in hospital.

hotmail.com · 16-08-2020 06:06PM

Why does RTE just compare our 14 day figure with the UK, a vastly larger country than ours.

hotmail.com · 16-08-2020 06:06PM

Stheno wrote: »

Where did you see that?

RTE News.

is_that_so · 16-08-2020 06:06PM

hotmail.com wrote: »

Consideration for new measures is to be taken this week.

That's just NHPET talk for we're having a meeting. It's still about the schools.

hotmail.com · 16-08-2020 06:08PM

is_that_so wrote: »

That's just NHPET talk for we're having a meeting. It's still about the schools.

Pubs and restaurants will be listening closely. It seems almost certain that non food pubs won't be reopening any time soon.

spookwoman · 16-08-2020 06:08PM

Stheno wrote: »

Where did you see that?

From Gov.ie

Dr Ronan Glynn, Acting Chief Medical Officer, Department of Health, said; Dr Ronan Glynn, Acting Chief Medical Officer, Department of Health, said; “NPHET will meet tomorrow to review and discuss the case figures that have been reported in recent days and will make any necessary recommendations to Government which are required to protect the vulnerable, continue with the resumption of healthcare services and ensure the safe reopening of our schools.”

“The phased reopening of the country has afforded people the opportunity to socialise with each other again. However, some are doing this recklessly and undermining the efforts of the majority of people around the country who are following public health advice. This cannot continue. This pandemic isn’t over just because we are tired of living with it.”

“We must all learn to behave and interact in a new way over the coming months so that COVID-19 cannot take root again in our communities. Please avoid crowds, reduce your social contacts, keep your distance from others, wash your hands and wear face coverings.”

GooglePlus · 16-08-2020 06:09PM

hotmail.com wrote: »

Why does RTE just compare our 14 day figure with the UK, a vastly larger country than ours.

Per capita.

growleaves · 16-08-2020 06:09PM

GooglePlus wrote: »

Our sun won't even be with us that long.

After the heat death of the universe and all other things have ceased there will still be covid.

Gruffalux · 16-08-2020 06:10PM

ACitizenErased wrote: »

The lack of hospital admission is quite surprising tbh.

Here is the amount of cases in the last two weeks, plus the hospitalisation rate per HPSC data, and the expected number of hospitalisations.

0-4 - +42 - HR of 10.21% gives expected admissions of 4 people
5-14 - +74 - HR of 4.33% gives expected admissions of 3 people
15-24 - +200 - HR of 3.69% gives expected admissions of 7 people
25-34 - +263 - HR of 4.37% gives expected admissions of 11 people
35-44 - +199 - HR of 5.82% gives expected admissions of 12 people
45-54 - +158 - HR of 9.49% gives expected admissions of 15 people
55-64 - +83 - HR of 14.97% gives expected admissions of 12 people
65-74 - +42 - HR of 31.85% gives expected admissions of 13 people
75-84 - +14 - HR of 32.43% gives expected admissions of 5 people
85+ - +7 - HR of 20.09% gives expected admissions of 1 person

Total expected admissions: 83 people in last two weeks.
Actual admissions: +26

This is a good way to analyse the numbers. I suggest apply the percentages to cases reported from 4 weeks ago.

ACitizenErased · 16-08-2020 06:11PM

DevilsHaircut wrote: »

You're confusing the percentages.

10.21% means that 10.21% of hospitalised cases were aged 0-4.

Not that 10.21% of 0-4-year-old cases were hospitalised.

Nope, I haven't. 24/235 0-4 hospitalised per HPSC up to 12th August gives 10.21%.

hotmail.com · 16-08-2020 06:12PM

GooglePlus wrote: »

Per capita.

I understand that, but it seems a bit weird to just compare ourselves with the UK, a vastly different country to ours with 4 component nations.

Can RTE not get into the habit of comparing us with comparable sized countries like Slovakia.

Covid 19 Part XXI-27,908 in ROI (1,777 deaths) 6,647 in NI (559 deaths)(22/08)Read OP

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