Covid 19 Part XXI-27,908 in ROI (1,777 deaths) 6,647 in NI (559 deaths)(22/08)Read OP

ACitizenErased wrote: »

An outlier is a piece of data (ie one day out of 7) that causes a skew in the data. In this case the 174 cases on one day dramatically drives the 7 day average upwards until that day is removed from the 7 days eventually.

But who decides on what constitutes an outlier? Will you drop today's 92 early next week, as it will be the outlier in the trend?

MD1990 wrote: »

I had similar.
Took me about 4 weeks to get my energy.

Had no taste & smell & couldnt do anything for a week.
My taste & smell may not have fuly returned yet.

4 of us had a godawful dose from last week of January to mid March , one after the other .
Myself and Oh were sick for 3 weeks with it but didn't meet the criteria fir testing , and then zi was negative when tested as a healthcare worker , 2 weeks after symptoms gone ...worse than useless, but around the time of the delayed testing .
All working in essential areas since and not a sniffle , fingers crossed .
But if it was it , I found it very scary , and a lot worse than any flu I have ever had .

JP Liz V1 wrote: »

Is Hugh, a stalker pap for Harris

Blue Hugh. A pillar of objective journalism.

Ohmeha wrote: »

7 day rolling average is currently up marginally as of today, however as a health warning the case numbers are yo-yoing up and down this week and by Saturday 15th when you can exclude the large numbers cases on Fri 7th and Sat 8th then the 7 day average will trend downwards if the cases for the next 2 days average at even 80 per day, we'll see anyway

Day Month Date Cases 7 Day
Friday July 24th 20 16.71
Saturday July 25th 24 17.14
Sunday July 26th 12 17.43
Monday July 27th 11 18.14
Tuesday July 28th 40 18.71
Wednesday July 29th 14 18.29
Thursday July 30th 85 29.43
Friday July 31st 38 32.00
Saturday August 1st 45 35.00
Sunday August 2nd 53 40.86
Monday August 3rd 46 45.86
Tuesday August 4th 45 46.57
Wednesday August 5th 50 51.71
Thursday August 6th 69 49.43
Friday August 7th 98 58.00
Saturday August 8th 174 76.43
Sunday August 9th 68 78.57
Monday August 10th 57 80.14
Tuesday August 11th 35 78.71
Wednesday August 12th 40 77.29
Thursday August 13th 92 80.57

TBF the only unique stats that I see being posted is from this lady / gentleman.

And thanks a million for doing it.

Non solum non ambulabit wrote: »

He has been providing greats stats and analysis for months and you are going to hang him over a few posts tonight when he was clearly put out by the constant picking at his data?

I will defend him as he is the most valuable contributer to this thread. With out him I expect many would leave.

He is not an official spokesperson for the HSE and Government or an expert on stats, the virus etc.
He contributes to the thread but that does not mean what he posts is always right and people are allowed to question him on it.

s1ippy wrote: »

https://twitter.com/oconnellhugh/status/1293497263868776448?s=20

Hope they got the breathalyser out

Thierry12 wrote: »

Wouldn't read much into it

The tests we use are high specificity,the downside of that high specificity is that we miss many positives

Also depends on the day of infection.

The likelihood of getting a false negative test result is way higher on the 1st day of infection, than on the 7th day

False positive results ) are thought to be much less of an issue with pcr tests compared to false negative results.

It's a bit like law, we can only convict when 100% sure, 90% isn't enough to convict

The test itself is super sensitive.They have to be taken correctly, and even if they are taken correctly the virus has to be in the spot where the sample is taken.

All this 99% accurate is in perfect conditions, performed by a professional.

In the nursing homes for example the nurses that work there are doing the tests, they were shown for 5 mins how to perform the test, they are so inconsistent from nurse to nurse, they might as well not bother testing.

I've been tested 4 times now and each time was different, it's a hard test to give

I think if it was a nurse taking it I'd be very happy . They are professionals , who are mostly used to doing similar swabs from training onward.
It's the self testing that is a total disaster , ie in UK , and postal tests .

The Unbearables wrote: »

Open it all up spin merchants on overtime I see.

What exactly is it that you want?

It's pretty clear that there is a set of people who won't be happy unless we are in permanent lockdown like March-May.

It's mind boggling that people expect that unless it just disappears magically, society should be just shut off until global eradication.

froog wrote: »

i actually took the time to graph the 7 day moving average and helpfully analysed it to show people it is trending up, whilst pointing out the absurdity of picking a tiny section of that trend to show it is trending down.

what have you done?

I’m not a statistician. But I assume the majority of the doomsday fear mongering cohort are in well paid cushy jobs that they can also work from home? Lockdown was probably a god send to you lot. Ye don’t engage in debate and hit anyone with a positive viewpoint with stupid gifs and memes. Why can’t ACE or Stephen take the positives out of the data that’s in front of them? I can see it. I listen to Dr Glynn and Professor Nolan. They never come across the way ye all do. They tell it how it is and that’s where 99% of all info comes from is from them and the Covid hub.
There has been outliers the last couple of weeks. We got unlucky and a bit complacent with the meat factories, direct provision clusters. But if they didn’t happen we’d be more then likely be in phase 4, I’d be in my local pub having a few pints watching the match tonight enjoying my time off work. I can tell you this much the industry I work in has been hell for leather since the start of March. I worked my bollocks these past 5 or so months and then for the likes of you wanting all this to kick off ( I actually think you do) again will make the next few months unbearable at work. Not many on here unless your a HCW have to wear a face mask or covering for more then 8 hours a day. I can’t work from home neither can my wife as she’s an essential worker on the frontline as well!
I’m going to be positive every f**king day, until this is over!!
ACE and Stephen keep publishing the facts and data and f**k the rest!

JP Liz V1 wrote: »

It's time I asked so wtf is an outlier/outliers

Those rare observations which skew the data. For example, spiderman is an outlier among normal humans

Or a more realistic example, Yao Ming is an outlier when compared to normal human height. If he is in a team then the average height will be higher.

Thierry12 wrote: »

Wouldn't read much into it

The tests we use are high specificity,the downside of that high specificity is that we miss many positives

Also depends on the day of infection.

The likelihood of getting a false negative test result is way higher on the 1st day of infection, than on the 7th day

False positive results ) are thought to be much less of an issue with pcr tests compared to false negative results.

It's a bit like law, we can only convict when 100% sure, 90% isn't enough to convict

The test itself is super sensitive.They have to be taken correctly, and even if they are taken correctly the virus has to be in the spot where the sample is taken.

All this 99% accurate is in perfect conditions, performed by a professional.

In the nursing homes for example the nurses that work there are doing the tests, they were shown for 5 mins how to perform the test, they are so inconsistent from nurse to nurse, they might as well not bother testing.

I've been tested 4 times now and each time was different, it's a hard test to give

Your story about the nurses not being able to swab properly in nursing homes is pure bogus anyways. Nurses were swabbing in nursing homes long before there was covid. Same swabbing procedure as flu swabs. Its fair tough on nurses and healthcare workers in nursing homes being labelled as incompetent all the time. I know many, many nurses that moved from private to public nursing homes and all said private nursing homes were run far better and the staff for the most part were far better trained and knowledgable.

Its a shame how nursing home workers are being so badly portrayed. They had it much tougher than most public frontline workers and their jobs continue to be much more difficult than they have been in the past. Your comments are insulting, ignorant and very much ill informed. It's a shame most of the public haven't realised that the many of our healthcare workers in nursing homes are deserving if a lot of the praise being thrown about for frontline heros

Goldengirl wrote: »

Tipp still ok

Hundreds of years of inbreeding as finally paid off.