Covid 19 Part XXI-27,908 in ROI (1,777 deaths) 6,647 in NI (559 deaths)(22/08)Read OP

Blondini · 13-08-2020 07:02PM

ACitizenErased wrote: »

Because there's an outlier in the data...... I explained this above.
An example:
Naive interpretation of statistics derived from data sets that include outliers may be misleading. For example, if one is calculating the average temperature of 10 objects in a room, and nine of them are between 20 and 25 degrees Celsius, but an oven is at 175 °C, the median of the data will be between 20 and 25 °C but the mean temperature will be between 35.5 and 40 °C. In this case, the median better reflects the temperature of a randomly sampled object (but not the temperature in the room) than the mean;

I love your work here ACE but all outliers cannot automatically be dismissed.

ACitizenErased · 13-08-2020 07:03PM

Blondini wrote: »

I love your work here ACE but all outliers cannot automatically be dismissed.

I didn't say dismiss it? I said it's skewing the mean. It obviously cannot be dismissed. I never once said dismiss it.

froog · 13-08-2020 07:04PM

froog · 13-08-2020 07:05PM

ACitizenErased wrote: »

Because there's an outlier in the data...... I explained this above.
An example:
Naive interpretation of statistics derived from data sets that include outliers may be misleading. For example, if one is calculating the average temperature of 10 objects in a room, and nine of them are between 20 and 25 degrees Celsius, but an oven is at 175 °C, the median of the data will be between 20 and 25 °C but the mean temperature will be between 35.5 and 40 °C. In this case, the median better reflects the temperature of a randomly sampled object (but not the temperature in the room) than the mean;

i'll help you out here. that line is trending up.

ACitizenErased · 13-08-2020 07:08PM

Clearly cannot make a point on here without words being twisted and taken out of context, batten down the hatches, I'm out.

stephenjmcd · 13-08-2020 07:08PM

froog wrote: »

Are you actually going to add to the conversation / debate or just keep posting the likes of the above, referring people to the trump administration & jumping up and down to go back in to phase 1 and 2.

Christ I'm glad I gave up doing any statistical analysis on this forum when this is what your up against.

People make mistakes, stats change daily as we're seeing

drunkmonkey · 13-08-2020 07:08PM

s1ippy wrote: »

I'm sorry now like but you're going to have to give a name for this utter lunatic if he exists at all.

Professor Carl Heneghan EBM & Director of CEBM at the University of Oxford.

Sure what with an utter lunatic like that know:rolleyes:

Renjit · 13-08-2020 07:09PM

Guys, we still good this week. See ya next week.

The Unbearables · 13-08-2020 07:10PM

froog wrote: »

Sums up those in deep denial very nicely.

froog · 13-08-2020 07:10PM

stephenjmcd wrote: »

Are you actually going to add to the conversation / debate or just keep posting the likes of the above, referring people to the trump administration & jumping up and down to go back in to phase 1 and 2.

Christ I'm glad I gave up doing any statistical analysis on this forum when this is what your up against

i actually took the time to graph the 7 day moving average and helpfully analysed it to show people it is trending up, whilst pointing out the absurdity of picking a tiny section of that trend to show it is trending down.

what have you done?

drunkmonkey · 13-08-2020 07:12PM

is_that_so wrote: »

I am curious who he is. If he's that crackpot Swede who said we'd have lots more cases I'd be reaching for the salt. As for pubs remember the Tyrol resort and the skiing in February, with the packed bars, the Korean nightclubs and how many cases came out of them? That too is evidence.

Watch this and let us know what you think...

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=H0CQ4nd7gD4

MOR316 · 13-08-2020 07:14PM

I'm amazed some of you have managed to leave the house at all in your lives incase the rain melted you.

stephenjmcd · 13-08-2020 07:14PM

froog wrote: »

i actually took the time to graph the 7 day moving average and helpfully analysed it to show people it is trending up, whilst pointing out the absurdity of picking a tiny section of that trend to show it is trending down.

what have you done?

plenty before you came onto this thread.

Gave up doing any analysis and posting it due to posters in a similar vain to yourself, it wasn't worth the hassle you get for it.

Numbers are going to go up and down, daily trends, weekly trends all going to fluctuate. But sure go back a few phases

Good luck

Non solum non ambulabit · 13-08-2020 07:15PM

froog wrote: »

i'll help you out here. that line is trending up.

Would you mind posting that graph on Saturday after the numbers are released? Be interested in your commentary then.

darjeeling · 13-08-2020 07:15PM

BringBackMick wrote: »

Is there any evidence or scientific discussion with regards to anectodal evidence that the 'second wave' of Covid19 in Europe is not resulting in a big uptick in hospitalisation ?

We're seeing the beginnings in Spain, which has the biggest epidemic in Western Europe right now. Hospitalisation admissions due to covid were at ~100 per week in June compared with over 800 per week as of yesterday. Weekly ICU admissions are up to around 50 per week from under 10 in June.

But the case numbers across Europe - even though they are definitely increasing - are still likely small relative to the March / April peak numbers because testing was missing 90-99% of cases at the peak, compared to more like 50% now.

spookwoman · 13-08-2020 07:16PM

I thought Wiki articles were not allowed in here

froog · 13-08-2020 07:17PM

stephenjmcd wrote: »

plenty before you came onto this thread.

Gave up doing any analysis and posting it due to posters in a similar vain to yourself, it wasn't worth the hassle you get for it.

Good luck

i don't know what threads you've been reading tbh, all i've seen is genuinely worried people getting mocked relentlessly by people who miss their pint.

bettyoleary · 13-08-2020 07:18PM

MOR316 wrote: »

I'm amazed some of you have managed to leave the house at all in your lives incase the rain melted you.

OOOh I bet your kids are doing your head in right now.

Non solum non ambulabit · 13-08-2020 07:19PM

stephenjmcd wrote: »

plenty before you came onto this thread.

Gave up doing any analysis and posting it due to posters in a similar vain to yourself, it wasn't worth the hassle you get for it.

Good luck

Your data is missed.

ACE is holding back the hoards of panic merchants daily with his statistics provided with context.

Consistently miss interpreted by some, intentionally I would contend.

stephenjmcd · 13-08-2020 07:23PM

Non solum non ambulabit wrote: »

Your data is missed.

ACE is holding back the hoards of panic merchants daily with his statistics provided with context.

Consistently missed interpreted, intentionally I would contend.

Thanks Non,

Was more hassle than it was worth. Pop in and out to see what's new in here. Still keep track of stats myself but its more of a personal project now, hoping to do some proper analysis and plot the data when this is all eventually passed us.

Will share it out then for sure.

Jackman25 · 13-08-2020 07:24PM

froog wrote: »

i don't know what threads you've been reading tbh, all i've seen is genuinely worried people getting mocked relentlessly by people who miss their pint.

Clown.

JP Liz V1 · 13-08-2020 07:26PM

It's time I asked so wtf is an outlier/outliers

mr zulu · 13-08-2020 07:26PM

spookwoman wrote: »

People are surprised in the increase in numbers? oh please where does it show people are surprised in the numbers no where but anyone who says 92 is not good are doom mongers.
Just because a some health official says oh the numbers will increase, I keep seeing the same meme in my head .

froog wrote: »

the rising cases.

froog wrote: »

but it's going down in this bit here :pac:

froog wrote: »

i don't know what threads you've been reading tbh, all i've seen is genuinely worried people getting mocked relentlessly by people who miss their pint.

Non solum non ambulabit wrote: »

Your data is missed.

ACE is holding back the hoards of panic merchants daily with his statistics provided with context.

Consistently missed interpreted, intentionally I would contend.

Yes your right,when they smell bad news,they come out in a pack,keep up the good work,ACE and Steve,I only found the ignore option lately,I’m putting it to good use.

KrustyUCC · 13-08-2020 07:27PM

stephenjmcd wrote: »

plenty before you came onto this thread.

Gave up doing any analysis and posting it due to posters in a similar vain to yourself, it wasn't worth the hassle you get for it.

Numbers are going to go up and down, daily trends, weekly trends all going to fluctuate. But sure go back a few phases

Good luck

I can only imagine the very large societal and economical shocks to the country going back to phase 2 not to mind phase 1

The numbers are not there to warrant this countrywide

Boggles · 13-08-2020 07:27PM

JP Liz V1 wrote: »

It's time I asked so wtf is an outlier/outliers

a younger rock formation isolated among older rocks

I think they are talking about rocks.

I'm not sure though.

JP Liz V1 · 13-08-2020 07:29PM

ACitizenErased wrote: »

Clearly cannot make a point on here without words being twisted and taken out of context, batten down the hatches, I'm out.

Take Care Come Back ACE, your data appreciated

WhiteMemento9 · 13-08-2020 07:30PM

KrustyUCC wrote: »

I can only imagine the very large societal and economical shocks to the country going back to phase 2 not to mind phase 1

The numbers are not there to warrant this countrywide

I am not saying we should do one thing in particular as we have experts better placed to make these decisions.

Your line of thinking though is not very good. You make these decisions early if nesscary to curb and cut things off at source so you only need to revert for short periods rather than letting the virus get out of control as happens with exponentials and then having to endure very long sustained periods of lockdown which do far, far more damage.

ACitizenErased · 13-08-2020 07:30PM

JP Liz V1 wrote: »

It's time I asked so wtf is an outlier/outliers

An outlier is a piece of data (ie one day out of 7) that causes a skew in the data. In this case the 174 cases on one day dramatically drives the 7 day average upwards until that day is removed from the 7 days eventually.

Jim_Hodge · 13-08-2020 07:33PM

Non solum non ambulabit wrote: »

Your data is missed.

ACE is holding back the hoards of panic merchants daily with his statistics provided with context.

Consistently missed interpreted, intentionally I would contend.

Ah hold on. They are not his statistics for a start. I do value the daily update of these stats though. However, you cannot skew the stats by removing the counties driving the national figures. Next week it could be different counties. Do we exclude them too? The 174 cases will drop off, yes, and then the 7 day average will drop significantly if we hold to current numbers. But this virus will see jumps from time to time and we can't exclude them all.

I've studied statistics at professional level so can appreciate the arguments but don't accept the exclusion of those that don't fit the narrative.

JP Liz V1 · 13-08-2020 07:34PM

Boggles wrote: »

I think they are talking about rocks.

I'm not sure though.

ACitizenErased wrote: »

An outlier is a piece of data (ie one day out of 7) that causes a skew in the data. In this case the 174 cases on one day dramatically drives the 7 day average upwards until that day is removed from the 7 days eventually.

I thought it was a The Walking Dead reference I didn't get

Covid 19 Part XXI-27,908 in ROI (1,777 deaths) 6,647 in NI (559 deaths)(22/08)Read OP

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