Relaxation of Restrictions, Part V - **Read OP for Mod Warnings**

MickeyLeari wrote: »

Is it conceivable that the actual infection rate in Ireland was 250,000?

No. There have been no studies yet that have indicated a rate of asymptomatic Infection anywhere near as high as would be necessary for that to be true. And while we definitely missed thousands of cases in late March and April due to testing capability; not in the tens upon tens of thousands.

50k would be a somewhat supportable upper end guess imo.

LuckyLloyd wrote: »

Who’s “we”? You can continue rejecting the science of this all you like. Statnews isn’t the type of publication that likes to engage in scare mongering to serve an agenda ime.

Who’s rejecting any science? The fact is this virus is killing hardly anyone now.
And lockdowns don’t work they only delay the inevitable. Absolutely none of my standpoints reject science- very much the opposite in fact. Those believe you can lockdown to suppress/get rid of a virus are they only ones rejecting science. Especially with no vaccine available

LuckyLloyd wrote: »

No. There have been no studies yet that have indicated a rate of asymptomatic Infection anywhere near as high as would be necessary for that to be true. And while we definitely missed thousands of cases in late March and April due to testing capability; not in the tens upon tens of thousands.

50k would be a somewhat supportable upper end guess imo.

Rubbish. People with symptoms who wanted a test couldn't get one in March and April. Nowadays 60% (according to CMO Today) of positive cases are asymptomatic but caught by track and trace.
Clearly according to all stats including hospitalisation and deaths compared to then and now we missed at least 10 times the number of infections at the peak.

Thierry12 wrote: »

Wrong

Antibody tests recently put us at 5%

300k cases there then

We all know antibody tests are rubbish and miss loads of cases

T spot testing puts prevalence at 2/3 times antibody testing

We at 600k - 900k cases

Experts are putting IFR at 0.5%

We have 1750 deaths or so

That puts cases at 350k

Its anywhere between 300k and 900k imo

Loads of people have had it unfortunately

That's some maths there chief.

normanoffside wrote: »

Rubbish. People with symptoms who wanted a test couldn't get one in March and April. Nowadays 60% (according to CMO Today) of positive cases are asymptomatic but caught by track and trace.
Clearly according to all stats including hospitalisation and deaths compared to then and now we missed at least 10 times the number of infections at the peak.

Thanks for that Norman.

I wonder how sick are the other 40%? How many are tested because they cant taste their cornflakes?

When did save lives become stay home until we look for people who arent sick?

Idbatterim wrote: »

Have any other countries taken our genius approacj of nine worth pf food to halt the spread of covid 19 approach?

Had you a bit of grub yourself last night?

CruelSummer wrote: »

Am I right in assuming the U.K. now followed by Spain, France, Germany & perhaps Croatia have decided to let this virus circulate at a certain level for the rest of the Summer/Autumn so pressure on GP’s and hospitals won’t be severely overwhelmed come Winter. I think we should follow suit as this virus has a huge amount of asymptomatic’s and very mild symptoms in all recent cases found, it isn’t killing or hospitalising anyone, and will destroy the economy if we continue with this hysteria.
The US clearly have gone the Sweden route, only they have a many unhealthy & vulnerable members of their population.
Is there any recent data out there to show the virus has become less virulent?

Yes. Countries/regions that were hit significantly hard earlier in the year are now experiencing more cases due to more testing and less restrictions but the deaths aren’t following as they did in the initial wave.

CruelSummer wrote: »

Am I right in assuming the U.K. now followed by Spain, France, Germany & perhaps Croatia have decided to let this virus circulate at a certain level for the rest of the Summer/Autumn so pressure on GP’s and hospitals won’t be severely overwhelmed come Winter. I think we should follow suit as this virus has a huge amount of asymptomatic’s and very mild symptoms in all recent cases found, it isn’t killing or hospitalising anyone, and will destroy the economy if we continue with this hysteria.
The US clearly have gone the Sweden route, only they have a many unhealthy & vulnerable members of their population.
Is there any recent data out there to show the virus has become less virulent?

I guess if you have no idea what’s actually happening in the world this might seem like a solid idea. Viruses don’t become less “virulent” (that doesn’t even mean anything)

MadYaker wrote: »

I guess if you have no idea what’s actually happening in the world this might seem like a solid idea. Viruses don’t become less “virulent” (that doesn’t even mean anything)

Virulent definition - marked by a rapid, severe, and destructive course a virulent infection. b : able to overcome bodily defensive mechanisms. There are many more meanings if you want to learn of its use in other contexts by hitting Google before posting rubbish.

Deleted User wrote: »

And if this trend continues, why should we not relax restrictions further?

This trend has been continuing since May almost everywhere. Its staring us in the face now.

Cases that don't result in hospitalisations or ICU/deaths are meaningless when the main wave has passed.

But cases are even more misleading than that. PCR tests are not perfect, it can detect both active infection or viral debris as a positive, so someone who recovered who had covid 2 months ago and didn't know it can test positive today. This was where the south Korea re-infection fear came from a few months ago and in 2009 with the swine flu panic.

This becomes a real issue with testing is dramatically ramped up like here in Ireland. 60,000 tests a week with a false positive rate of 0.5% results in 300 extra cases that are completely benign and create needless panic.

But...because theres no deaths to report its all about cases now.

Sources:

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-southkorea-explain/explainer-south-korean-findings-suggest-reinfected-coronavirus-cases-are-false-positives-idUSKBN22J0HR

https://www.spiegel.de/international/world/reconstruction-of-a-mass-hysteria-the-swine-flu-panic-of-2009-a-682613.html

Sadly a 32 year old woman passed away today in Co. Antrim. They're putting it down as a Covid death but it wasn't mentioned if she had any underlying health issues...

snowcat wrote: »

120k sick people on waiting lists since the lockdown.

Are they sick from some irrelevant illness like cancer etc?

If so, they don't matter to most it seems, only Covid is a real illness, worthy of any concern

Plumbthedepths wrote: »

My friend passed away yesterday from Leukemia. He was scheduled to have a bone marrow transplant from his brother but the operation was postponed because of Covid, it may not have saved him but it certainly wouldn't have made things worse.. When it was deemed ok to go ahead with the operation it was too late. At least his death will not be recorded as a Covid casualty.

I’m so sorry. That’s just terrible

Plumbthedepths wrote: »

My friend passed away yesterday from Leukemia. He was scheduled to have a bone marrow transplant from his brother but the operation was postponed because of Covid, it may not have saved him but it certainly wouldn't have made things worse.. When it was deemed ok to go ahead with the operation it was too late. At least his death will not be recorded as a Covid casualty.

That’s just awful to hear, I’m so sorry to hear that happened. It may not have saved him as you say but at least he might have had a chance. But was denied it thanks to mania. Crazy

https://www.breakingnews.ie/ireland/outpatient-waiting-list-rose-by-17000-in-one-month-1014088.html

Over 800,000 people on waiting lists!
And it will only get worse with the coming recession. ‘Every life matters’ my arse.