Covid 19 Part XX-26,644 in ROI (1,772 deaths) 6,064 in NI (556 deaths) (08/08)Read OP

mandrake04 · 06-08-2020 11:09AM

froog wrote: »

I was interested specifically in the Liaison as martina said it was the highly accurate one used by the HSE and according to this study is not suitable for surveys of low prevalence populations such as ireland and other countries.

Like I said it not a bad analyser

Liaison XL is DiaSorin's Immuno Platform, I think that is what they use at the NVRL.

Architect and Elecsys are common platforms in Ireland.

06-08-2020 11:09AM

caveat emptor wrote: »

I like the seven day rolling average as it smooths out most reporting quirks.
The trend is important not the value. (rate of change). It's a log scale too which is useful when things grow exponentially.

all figures per million

Country|Cases
New Zealand|0.3
Ireland|9.5
Netherlands|21.4
Spain|67.8
Israel|162.2

We have 30X New Zealand.
Netherlands has 2X us.
Spain has 7 times as many cases.
Israel has 16X as many (near our peak)

What website do you use for these? They're great

dundalkfc10 · 06-08-2020 11:09AM

kenmc wrote: »

Socially distant canvassing and polling stations? I'd say the last thing any TD wants is another election. Hence the scramble to create the franken-government we have been left with.

Don't think they will have any other option. Leo and MM clearly still are at odds, The Greens don't even know who they are anymore. The 6 week break came at just the right time (HH would be gone by now otherwise)

froog · 06-08-2020 11:12AM

Deleted User wrote: »

Lots of things are published in a scientific journal. They are not the be all and end all, just studies that feed into the scientific consensus on a subject. It is possible to get 19 studies published given one result and 1 with the opposite, but for them all to be peer reviewed, published and equally scientifically valid.
https://royalsocietypublishing.org/doi/10.1098/rsbl.2019.0174

Will cede to Mandrake and Martina1991 on the understanding of serological testing however.

Sorry but the peer review system is the foundation on which the entire scientific knowledge system is built. Its fundamentally important. Every scientist knows this.

froog · 06-08-2020 11:14AM

mandrake04 wrote: »

Like I said it not a bad analyser

Liaison XL is DiaSorin's Immuno Platform, I think that is what they use at the NVRL.

Architect and Elecsys are common platforms in Ireland.

From the nature article it seems to be suitable for population prevalence of >50%, but very poor at 4% prevalence. Would you agree with that?

iguana · 06-08-2020 11:17AM

mandrake04 wrote: »

But when they make the vaccine they try make it very strong so it produces a better response than natural occurring antibody production.

Sticking with measles, isn't the opposite true. Immunity from the MMR only lasts a decade or so, immunity from actually having the virus lasts for at least several decades, possibly life for many people. When there was a measles outbreak in Limerick a few years ago I brought my son to get his booster a year early, as was advised. When I brought him in, the doctor asked if I'd had the MMR as a child and advised I get a booster if so as I would almost certainly not have immunity. When I told her I'd had measles at 3 and had tested positive for the antibody in pregnancy, she said there was no need for a booster.

06-08-2020 11:27AM

froog wrote: »

Sorry but the peer review system is the foundation on which the entire scientific knowledge system is built. Its fundamentally important. Every scientist knows this.

You can have two papers peer reviewed and published at the same time, reaching completely opposite conclusions and both being equally scientifically valid. Its then up to the wider scientific community in the field to resolve through wider review, replication or more robust study designs to address flaws. The process is the input to scientific knowledge, not an arbitration on truth. You misunderstand what peer reviewed means

podgeandrodge · 06-08-2020 11:44AM

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/08/04/world/middleeast/coronavirus-israel-schools-reopen.html?smid=tw-share

Reading that article would make you a tad concerned about schools opening!

Arghus · 06-08-2020 11:47AM

Boggles wrote: »

Seriously people need to stop quoting the WHO as a reputable source on this virus.

Very few if any countries are actually taking direction from them, including ourselves.

There are referenced the odd time out of politeness or to back up some questionable policies.

When did the WHO jump the shark? Up until recently I thought they were trying to do their best. It's a tough gig trying to deliver a message on a constantly changing situation to a global audience.

froog · 06-08-2020 11:50AM

Deleted User wrote: »

You can have two papers peer reviewed and published at the same time, reaching completely opposite conclusions and both being equally scientifically valid. Its then up to the wider scientific community in the field to resolve through wider review, replication or more robust study designs to address flaws. The process is the input to scientific knowledge, not an arbitration on truth. You misunderstand what peer reviewed means

I'm not the one who thought references were evidence of peer review. You are embarrassing youself at this stage.

06-08-2020 11:53AM

froog wrote: »

I'm not the one who thought references were evidence of peer review. You are embarrassing youself at this stage.

Oh dear

Gruffalux · 06-08-2020 11:55AM

podgeandrodge wrote: »

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/08/04/world/middleeast/coronavirus-israel-schools-reopen.html?smid=tw-share

Reading that article would make you a tad concerned about schools opening!

Yeah, just read it.
Wondered if death rates had also risen in Israel and worldometers suggests yes. Mind you they have had low deaths compared to what we had.

Don't know. Schools will have to open. Maybe a 2.5 day schedule for kids would be better? Half occupancy of rooms. One of my closest friends is a teacher and is looking forward to school resuming although acknowledges the precautions that will be taken are basic enough. Time will tell.

Martina1991 · 06-08-2020 12:02PM

froog wrote: »

I was interested specifically in the Liaison as martina said it was the highly accurate one used by the HSE and according to this study is not suitable for surveys of low prevalence populations such as ireland and other countries.

Look I’m not going to stress myself going back and forth with you. Boards are acting up for me and I’m at work. You’ve made up your mind and will cling to a statistic form any paper to make a point.

No assay on any platform will be 100% perfect and detect the disease you want, when you want, free from any bias or interference. So I could scour the internet for papers on assay performances and you would still say but what about…

Some antibody platforms look for the virus’ nucleocapsid (N) that is bound up with the virus’s genetic material. Some reports have said antibodies to the N decline quickly and that assays should instead look for antibodies to the Spike protein or receptor binding domain (RBD) as they are more powerful antibodies. Antibodies that bind to the RBD neutralise the virus and prevent infection.

The Liaison Diasorin has such an assay. It has demonstrated to be highly sensitive and specific. As assays go, its performance is the best tool we have right now to assess seroprevalence.

Assays will become better and more robust over time, but time is something we didn't have. It may have been better to conduct our study in May instead of June but we didn't have a reliable assay at that time.

A lot of people are sick of reading or listening about Covid while NPHET, scientists, healthcare workers have been working day in, day out 24/7 to improve the health service and provide these tests in the first place.
But the best efforts will never be good enough for some.

mandrake04 · 06-08-2020 12:05PM

froog wrote: »

From the nature article it seems to be suitable for population prevalence of >50%, but very poor at 4% prevalence. Would you agree with that?

No I wouldn't, there is many other factors but as far as mass testing in the general population goes goes the XL is more suitable for doing that where as ELISA testing due it its simplistic but limited capacity is more suitable for research type work like in a university lab.

thats just my opinion.

froog · 06-08-2020 12:10PM

Martina1991 wrote: »

Look I’m not going to stress myself going back and forth with you. Boards are acting up for me and I’m at work. You’ve made up your mind and will cling to a statistic form any paper to make a point.

No assay on any platform will be 100% perfect and detect the disease you want, when you want, free from any bias or interference. So I could scour the internet for papers on assay performances and you would still say but what about…

Some antibody platforms look for the virus’ nucleocapsid (N) that is bound up with the virus’s genetic material. Some reports have said antibodies to the N decline quickly and that assays should instead look for antibodies to the Spike protein or receptor binding domain (RBD) as they are more powerful antibodies. Antibodies that bind to the RBD neutralise the virus and prevent infection.

The Liaison Diasorin has such an assay. It has demonstrated to be highly sensitive and specific. As assays go, its performance is the best tool we have right now to assess seroprevalence.

Assays will become better and more robust over time, but time is something we didn't have. It may have been better to conduct our study in May instead of June but we didn't have a reliable assay at that time.

A lot of people are sick of reading or listening about Covid while NPHET, scientists, healthcare workers have been working day in, day out 24/7 to improve the health service and provide these tests in the first place.
But the best efforts will never be good enough for some.

Sorry now but you are deliberately ignoring my specific point. I was genuinely interested in your thoughts as you seem to have more experience than some of the bluffers around here.

It seems to me the HSE antibody survey cannot be remotely trusted when our population prevalence is so low and no kind of decision making should be based off it as it would be highly irresponsible. That is the whole point of this tedious argument.

Im going to leave it there. The Nature article and the study raind linked yesterday spell it all out pretty clearly.

Boggles · 06-08-2020 12:15PM

Arghus wrote: »

When did the WHO jump the shark?

2013.

They never learned or took on board the structural changes needed after they mishandled the Ebola outbreak.

Same mistakes followed with Covid, favoring politics over science.

They officially jumped the fúcking Shark in 2017 when they made Robert Mugabe a Goodwill ambassador for health.

Yes that Robert who was accused of Genocide.

That would be the equivalent of making Harold Shipman the Minister for the Elderly.

froog · 06-08-2020 12:15PM

mandrake04 wrote: »

No I wouldn't, there is many other factors but as far as mass testing in the general population goes goes the XL is more suitable for doing that where as ELISA testing due it its simplistic but limited capacity is more suitable for research type work like in a university lab.

thats just my opinion.

Fair enough. Im going to go with the scientific article and specifically the 0.26 PPV at 4% prevalence that everyone seems happy to ignore or discredit.

ronano · 06-08-2020 12:20PM

best place to get irelands current cases per 100000?

smurfjed · 06-08-2020 12:26PM

fritzelly wrote: »

Said many months and many threads ago I would rather a hard lockdown for 3 months than a year of dithering around

Seems I prophesied what would happen

and how would you have envisaged ireland reopening from this hard lockdown?

mandrake04 · 06-08-2020 12:29PM

iguana wrote: »

Sticking with measles, isn't the opposite true. Immunity from the MMR only lasts a decade or so, immunity from actually having the virus lasts for at least several decades, possibly life for many people. When there was a measles outbreak in Limerick a few years ago I brought my son to get his booster a year early, as was advised. When I brought him in, the doctor asked if I'd had the MMR as a child and advised I get a booster if so as I would almost certainly not have immunity. When I told her I'd had measles at 3 and had tested positive for the antibody in pregnancy, she said there was no need for a booster.

No, not always the case I would say everyone is different but if you tested for antibody while pregnant then they correctly assumed you had enough immunity. Having a bad dose of the measles as a child will certainly give you immunity for a long time, but maybe not the case if you had a very mild case. You will always have antibodies they sometimes just sometimes revert to a memory level, booster every now and again definitely helps. Then again some antibodies are easier to test for than others.

But it is true that they make vaccines using adjuvants to give a stronger response as this is an advantage, whether they use of adjuvants in every vaccine I dont know.

Oranage2 · 06-08-2020 12:32PM

smurfjed wrote: »

and how would you have envisaged ireland reopening from this hard lockdown?

With arrivals forced to quarantine. The odd cluster would happen but lock that area down till it's under control.

The north and south situation would be difficult to manage. Maybe just making people who entered NI quarantine if they want to come to the south. Hard to police but I don't think there's many going to break the policy so if a flair up happened it would be easy to contain

JP Liz V1 · 06-08-2020 12:38PM

Meath GAA club player tests positive, activities stopped

Arghus · 06-08-2020 12:39PM

Boggles wrote: »

2013.

They never learned or took on board the structural changes needed after they mishandled the Ebola outbreak.

Same mistakes followed with Covid, favoring politics over science.

They officially jumped the fúcking Shark in 2017 when they made Robert Mugabe a Goodwill ambassador for health.

Yes that Robert who was accused of Genocide.

That would be the equivalent of making Harold Shipman the Minister for the Elderly.

I'd like to know more about this, genuinely.

I must confess that my knowledge of the internal politics and what-have-you of the WHO was pretty close to zero before all this kicked off.

Generally I've found myself in agreement with what they've been saying: take this shyte seriously, this isn't over yet, things will get worse before it gets better. Pretty inarguable stuff I thought.

Anytime I saw one of their talking heads in the news they always appeared to be talking pretty rationally and reasonably to me. I didn't think their advice was bad.

Obviously, they weren't perfect, but I assumed they were a reasonably reliable bellwether of opinion. Some of their issues were, to my mind, having to give global advice on a rapidly changing situation - which always leads to caution and a certain amount of hedging in the advice you can give. I also thought they were hamstrung by their lack of real power or authority and for a supposed global organisation they aren't actually that well funded or well staffed.

I'm not going to die on a cross defending the honour of the WHO. But, I did think that, on balance they were a credible source of information. But, I'm always open to having my mind changed.

Boggles · 06-08-2020 12:49PM

Arghus wrote: »

I'd like to know more about this, genuinely.

I must confess that my knowledge of the internal politics and what-have-you of the WHO was pretty close to zero before all this kicked off.

Generally I've found myself in agreement with what they've been saying: take this shyte seriously, this isn't over yet, things will get worse before it gets better. Pretty inarguable stuff I thought.

Anytime I saw one of their talking heads in the news they always appeared to be talking pretty rationally and reasonably to me. I didn't think their advice was bad.

Obviously, they weren't perfect, but I assumed they were a reasonably reliable bellwether of opinion. Some of their issues were, to my mind, having to give global advice on a rapidly changing situation - which always leads to caution and a certain amount of hedging in the advice you can give. I also thought they were hamstrung by their lack of real power or authority and for a supposed global organisation they aren't actually that well funded or well staffed.

I'm not going to die on a cross defending the honour of the WHO. But, I did think that, on balance they were a credible source of information. But, I'm always open to having my mind changed.

The vast majority of the planet stopped listening to the WHO back in April.

There was a 180+ countries recommending or mandating for masks while the WHO was still pretending they didn't work and in all likelyhood would kill you, long after the perceived shortage of PPE was dealt with. Basically they are working off science that is months old, countries like Germany are ploughing ahead without them. Their dithering is directly translating into deaths.

But the biggest tell tale sign for me was when the artificially tanned buffoon jettisoned them and the "outrage" was minimal.

Unfortunately for the majority of people that work for the WHO much like FIFA, the actual brilliant professionals, they will be the ones who suffer and not the ones at the top.

Also it was current head of the WHO made Mugabe a goodwill ambassador, on that point alone you do have to question the judgement of the man.

US2 · 06-08-2020 12:59PM

JP Liz V1 wrote: »

Meath GAA club player tests positive, activities stopped

I see these kind of posts alot, what has it got to do with GAA ? I don't see any " person who happens to play soccer/rugby/basketball tests positive"

Oranage2 · 06-08-2020 01:01PM

Boggles wrote: »

The vast majority of the planet stopped listening to the WHO back in April.

There was a 180+ countries recommending or mandating for masks while the WHO was still pretending they didn't work and in all likelyhood would kill you, long after the perceived shortage of PPE was dealt with. Basically they are working off science that is months old, countries like Germany are ploughing ahead without them. Their dithering is directly translating into deaths.

But the biggest tell tale sign for me was when the artificially tanned buffoon jettisoned them and the "outrage" was minimal.

Unfortunately for the majority of people that work for the WHO much like FIFA, the actual brilliant professionals, they will be the ones who suffer and not the ones at the top.

Also it was current head of the WHO made Mugabe a goodwill ambassador, on that point alone you do have to question the judgement of the man.

They also recommended not to stop air travel to and from the country of origin when it was obvious it should have been done

niallo27 · 06-08-2020 01:01PM

Oranage2 wrote: »

With arrivals forced to quarantine. The odd cluster would happen but lock that area down till it's under control.

The north and south situation would be difficult to manage. Maybe just making people who entered NI quarantine if they want to come to the south. Hard to police but I don't think there's many going to break the policy so if a flair up happened it would be easy to contain

Where would you force them to quarantine, for how long, who would pay for it. Is the whole airport segregated, are all passengers shipped off for 14 days. How will it work.

caveat emptor · 06-08-2020 01:03PM

As regards the WHO they are between a rock and a hard place.

They didn't want to affect China by announcing evidence of human to human transmission.
They didn't want to offend governments when there was a lack of PPE and say we need masks.
They don't want to offend governments by causing undue panic and telling people it's airborne. (even though it is)

They are used too having to go into hellhole countries and coordinate responses to prevent outbreaks.
If that means you coordinate with unpalatable figures then that's what you do.
They desperately didn't want to lose access to china during this.

As much as I hate saying this. Trump was right in that they did not balance china's feelings with the potential for disaster with this one.

They are a good source though it's just their advice is tempered with politics of donor countries. Mike Ryan is brilliant.
I tend to read between the lines of what they are saying as far as possible.

https://twitter.com/kwame_mckenzie/status/1287366719745544192?s=20

caveat emptor · 06-08-2020 01:08PM

niallo27 wrote: »

Where would you force them to quarantine, for how long, who would pay for it. Is the whole airport segregated, are all passengers shipped off for 14 days. How will it work.

https://twitter.com/mikegalsworthy/status/1287042894277349377?s=20

JP Liz V1 · 06-08-2020 01:09PM

US2 wrote: »

I see these kind of posts alot, what has it got to do with GAA ? I don't see any " person who happens to play soccer/rugby/basketball tests positive"

I think he was out playing a match at the weekend, I don't see the issue with mentioning GAA

Covid 19 Part XX-26,644 in ROI (1,772 deaths) 6,064 in NI (556 deaths) (08/08)Read OP

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