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Covid 19 Part XX-26,644 in ROI (1,772 deaths) 6,064 in NI (556 deaths) (08/08)Read OP

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Comments

  • #6482
    [Deleted User]
    Posts: 10,049 ✭ [Deleted User]


    froog wrote: »
    You dispute the studies 0.26 PPV for a population prevalence of 4%? Its important.

    I also dont need to tell you how prestigious the journal Nature is i'm sure.

    For this specific test the FDA find PPV at 5% prevalence is 88%. So a maximum of 12% of positives could be false
    https://www.fda.gov/medical-devices/coronavirus-disease-2019-covid-19-emergency-use-authorizations-medical-devices/eua-authorized-serology-test-performance

    Oxford University also tested it
    https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/898437/Evaluation__of_sensitivity_and_specificity_of_4_commercially_available_SARS-CoV-2_antibody_immunoassays.pdf

    Now look for the studies of on the proportion of those who have been infected that never develop Antibodies that can be detected and come back and explain how given all this information, how anyone can say that if a study finds 5% infection rate, how the true rate can be significantly less than that, which was the original false contention that started this merry-go-round


  • #6483
    KrustyUCC
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,077 ✭✭✭KrustyUCC


    thelad95 wrote: »
    From what I gather on the Wexford forum, the 11 cases are all linked to a halting site, another predictable cluster source.

    I do have to admit my heart jumped a little yesterday as I thought they could have been random community transmission.

    Hmm that could make sense alright

    Social distancing is very hard in halting sites


  • #6484
    Ficheall
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 9,038 ✭✭✭Ficheall


    Surely false negatives are a much bigger problem - what are the numbers there?
    False positives skew the stats, false negatives increase the spread..


  • #6485
    [Deleted User]
    Posts: 10,049 ✭ [Deleted User]


    caveat emptor wrote: »
    Yes to all of that. I watch out for the WUM on here. You'll get distracted from what's important.
    Here's something from yesterday.
    The reason our gov doesn't take action on something is they say
    • Nephet and no evidence or guidance.
    • Nphet says ECDC said so.
    • ECDC said WHO said so.

    Dogs on street know. By dogs I mean layperson looking at China or experts in their field.
    How many people infected in mean time.

    https://twitter.com/j_g_allen/status/1291106440405557255?s=20

    What the WHO have said:
    https://www.who.int/news-room/q-a-detail/q-a-how-is-covid-19-transmitted
    What do we know about aerosol transmission?
    Some medical procedures can produce very small droplets (called aerosolized droplet nuclei or aerosols) that are able to stay suspended in the air for longer periods of time. When such medical procedures are conducted on people infected with COVID-19 in health facilities, these aerosols can contain the COVID-19 virus. These aerosols may potentially be inhaled by others if they are not wearing appropriate personal protective equipment. Therefore, it is essential that all health workers performing these medical procedures take specific airborne protection measures, including using appropriate personal protective equipment. Visitors should not be permitted in areas where such medical procedures are being performed.

    There have been reported outbreaks of COVID-19 in some closed settings, such as restaurants, nightclubs, places of worship or places of work where people may be shouting, talking, or singing. In these outbreaks, aerosol transmission, particularly in these indoor locations where there are crowded and inadequately ventilated spaces where infected persons spend long periods of time with others, cannot be ruled out. More studies are urgently needed to investigate such instances and assess their significance for transmission of COVID-19.

    Pretty much exactly what Fauci says.

    What they say about preventing transmission:
    Avoid crowded places, close-contact settings and confined and enclosed spaces with poor ventilation.
    Ensure good ventilation in indoor settings, including homes and offices.
    Are there any directives on office ventilation and air conditioning use?
    There should be fresh, clean air in all workplaces. For jobs and work tasks at medium or high risk of exposure, WHO recommends an increased ventilation rate through natural aeration or artificial ventilation, preferably without re-circulation of the air. In case of air recirculation, filters should be cleaned regularly.


  • #6486
    dundalkfc10
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 4,719 ✭✭✭dundalkfc10


    Jinglejangle69 wrote: »
    Don't bother.

    He hates anything FG with a passion.

    https://www.irishtimes.com/news/health/simon-harris-under-pressure-to-clarify-when-he-knew-of-smear-test-issue-1.3769859

    https://www.irishexaminer.com/news/arid-30959272.html

    The fact he said he didnt have a clue what was going on, is enough reason for him to be nowhere near a Govt but hey welcome to Ireland


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  • #6487
    [Deleted User]
    Posts: 18,047 ✭✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    AdamD wrote: »
    Are you joking? Communication is very important in this. If they lose the public then whatever plan they have in place is utterly meaningless.

    Read my post and what I was responding to again.


  • #6488
    Gruffalux
    Closed Accounts Posts: 3,023 ✭✭✭Gruffalux


    Specificity. Sensitivity. Seroprevalence. Words for which, like median, I have now reached maximum bamboozlement. And tolerance. Make it stop! :(


  • #6489
    seamus
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 68,190 ✭✭✭✭seamus


    KrustyUCC wrote: »
    Hmm that could make sense alright

    Social distancing is very hard in halting sites
    And at the risk of being labelled racist, hygiene is going to be lacking, as is the education to understand the importance of social distancing.

    There were plenty of videos floating around at the start of lockdown, of large parties in halting sites. Since Travellers generally feel like outsiders to society, they probably similarly feel that this virus doesn't really apply to them.


  • #6490
    Gael23
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 12,153 ✭✭✭✭Gael23


    How long until lockdown round 2?


  • #6491
    [Deleted User]
    Posts: 10,049 ✭ [Deleted User]


    dundalkfc10 wrote: »
    https://www.irishtimes.com/news/health/simon-harris-under-pressure-to-clarify-when-he-knew-of-smear-test-issue-1.3769859

    https://www.irishexaminer.com/news/arid-30959272.html

    The fact he said he didnt have a clue what was going on, is enough reason for him to be nowhere near a Govt but hey welcome to Ireland

    You hate him, we get it. But it didn't happen on his watch, so prison would be a bit harsh, no?


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  • #6492
    Boggles
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 42,549 ✭✭✭✭Boggles


    Gael23 wrote: »
    How long until lockdown round 2?

    If we get to Halloween I'll be surprised.

    All though it will be the one time everyone will gladly wear a mask.


  • #6493
    KrustyUCC
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,077 ✭✭✭KrustyUCC


    seamus wrote: »
    And at the risk of being labelled racist, hygiene is going to be lacking, as is the education to understand the importance of social distancing.

    There were plenty of videos floating around at the start of lockdown, of large parties in halting sites. Since Travellers generally feel like outsiders to society, they probably similarly feel that this virus doesn't really apply to them.

    Can't disagree with those factors either


  • #6494
    Gruffalux
    Closed Accounts Posts: 3,023 ✭✭✭Gruffalux


    Boggles wrote: »
    If we get to Halloween I'll be surprised.

    All though it will be the one time everyone will gladly wear a mask.

    Was thinking about that yesterday. I say mid to late November with very quiet Christmases all round before we limp into January and another year of uncertainty. But that was me being cheerful for a change.


  • #6495
    froog
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,784 ✭✭✭froog


    Deleted User wrote: »
    For this specific test the FDA find PPV at 5% prevalence is 88%. So a maximum of 12% of positives could be false
    https://www.fda.gov/medical-devices/coronavirus-disease-2019-covid-19-emergency-use-authorizations-medical-devices/eua-authorized-serology-test-performance

    Oxford University also tested it
    https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/898437/Evaluation__of_sensitivity_and_specificity_of_4_commercially_available_SARS-CoV-2_antibody_immunoassays.pdf

    Now look for the studies of on the proportion of those who have been infected that never develop Antibodies that can be detected and come back and explain how given all this information, how anyone can say that if a study finds 5% infection rate, how the true rate can be significantly less than that, which was the original false contention that started this merry-go-round

    I'll go with the peer reviewed scientific journal article thanks.


  • #6496
    dundalkfc10
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 4,719 ✭✭✭dundalkfc10


    Deleted User wrote: »
    You hate him, we get it. But it didn't happen on his watch, so prison would be a bit harsh, no?

    https://www.irishmirror.ie/news/irish-news/health-news/simon-harris-accused-being-involved-16532783

    Maybe Jail was a bit harsh. Anyone who voted for this scumbag must be ashamed of themselves. Hope my aunty who passed away cause of the scandal is looking down on him and he gets bad luck every day of his life.

    He managed to bring down the previous Govt and people still voted for him and FFG still gave him a top job (Minister of Further and Higher Education)

    Ah yeh lets give him Further Education "Something he failed himself when attempting to do after school"


  • #6497
    [Deleted User]
    Posts: 10,049 ✭ [Deleted User]


    froog wrote: »
    I'll go with the peer reviewed scientific journal article thanks.
    7. References
    1. Center for Systems Science and Engineering (CSSE) at Johns Hopkins University.
    COVID-19 Dashboard. https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html. Accessed: 17/Jun/2020.\
    2. Amanat F, Stadlbauer D, Strohmeier S et al. 2020. A serological assay to detect SARSCoV-2 seroconversion in humans. Nat Med doi:10.1038/s41591-020-0913-5.
    3. Zhao J, Yuan Q, Wang H et al. Antibody responses to SARS-CoV-2 in patients of novel
    coronavirus disease 2019. Clin Infect Dis doi:10.1093/cid/ciaa344.
    4. Adams ER, Ainsworth M, Anand R et al. Antibody testing for COVID-19: A report from
    the National COVID Scientific Advisory Panel [version 1; peer review: awaiting peer
    review]. Wellcome Open Res 2020, 5:139
    (https://doi.org/10.12688/wellcomeopenres.15927.1)
    5. UK Medicines and Healthcare products Regulatory Agency (MHRA). Target Product
    Profile: enzyme Immunoassay (EIA) Antibody tests to help determine if people have
    antibodies to SARS-CoV-2. https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/how-tests-andtesting-kits-for-coronavirus-covid-19-work/target-product-profile-enzyme-immunoassayeia-antibody-tests-to-help-determine-if-people-have-antibodies-to-sars-cov-2. Last
    updated 12/Jun/2020. Last accessed: 17/Jun/2020.
    6. Department of Health and Social Care (DHSC). Coronavirus (Covid-19): Scaling up our
    testing programmes.
    https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment
    _data/file/878121/coronavirus-covid-19-testing-strategy.pdf. Last accessed:
    17/Jun/2020.
    7. World Health Organisation (WHO). Report of the WHO-China Joint Mission on
    Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19). https://www.who.int/docs/defaultsource/coronaviruse/who-china-joint-mission-on-covid-19-final-report.pdf. Last
    accessed: 17/Jun/2020.

    Fin


  • #6498
    Gael23
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 12,153 ✭✭✭✭Gael23


    Gruffalox wrote: »
    Was thinking about that yesterday. I say mid to late November with very quiet Christmases all round before we limp into January and another year of uncertainty. But that was me being cheerful for a change.

    People won’t stay apart at Christmas no matter what they are told


  • #6499
    mandrake04
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,435 ✭✭✭mandrake04


    iguana wrote: »
    I'm wondering if you could explain why antibodies to some viruses, like measles, are detectable decades after an infection while covid antibodies are often undetectable after a few months? Is it a difference in how the body reacts to each virus or is it down to specificity in testing as we've had time to hone tests for measles antibodies but not for covid?

    yes different virus

    Possibly because measles been around for millennia the memory B cells are hard coded in our ancestral DNA, if you catch measles or are even better given the vaccine it reinvigorates the memory cells to produce very strong antibodies that are easily detectable same goes for Hep B you get a multi vaccine when you are a child gives great antibody protection but in some people the level of antibody can wane over time, people like me who work in healthcare have to provide Hep B immunity certificate every year

    Although the antibodies in CV19 wane over time they don't disappear completely they just reduce to a low level basically an undetectable rate, your body is not designed to be pumping out endless supplies of antibodies. But when they make the vaccine they try make it very strong so it produces a better response than natural occurring antibody production.

    I'm not an immunologist but I was an Instrumentation Engineering specialist in Clinical Chemistry, immunology and Molecular Pathology so when it comes to testing for antibodies I have an extremely good understanding of how the counts, sandwich & competitive assays etc etc blah blah work.


  • #6500
    froog
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,784 ✭✭✭froog


    Deleted User wrote: »
    Fin

    Those are references. You get peer reviewed if you are published in a scientific journal. Im starting to doubt whether you really have a background in science or are just trolling now.


  • #6501
    mandrake04
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,435 ✭✭✭mandrake04


    froog wrote: »
    https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-020-17317-y

    https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-020-17317-y/tables/1

    according to this study, the Liaison ranks 5th out of 8 for specificity and 8th (last) for sensitivity out of these commercially available testing platforms.

    and most interesting is the PPV at 4% prevalence, which for the Liason is just 0.26. i.e. a 26% chance a positive test actually has the disease at a population prevalence of 4%. they all fare pretty bad at that prevalence though. these platforms only seem useful at >50% prevalence. so the HSE studys 5% rate could actually be closer to 1.25%. but it seems so wildly inaccurate no conclusions should be made one way or the other.

    interested to hear martina and rainds thoughts on that as i am no expert.

    The XL is not a bad analyser, but that list mostly talking about ELISA type tests different process older technology.

    That list lacks top tier platforms such at Architect, Alinity, Atellica, Centaur and Elecsys. Kinda makes me laugh.


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  • #6502
    caveat emptor
    Closed Accounts Posts: 5,134 ✭✭✭caveat emptor


    I like the seven day rolling average as it smooths out most reporting quirks.
    The trend is important not the value. (rate of change). It's a log scale too which is useful when things grow exponentially.

    all figures per million

    Country|Cases
    New Zealand|0.3
    Ireland|9.5
    Netherlands|21.4
    Spain|67.8
    Israel|162.2

    We have 30X New Zealand.
    Netherlands has 2X us.
    Spain has 7 times as many cases.
    Israel has 16X as many (near our peak)

    522245.jpg


  • #6503
    eigrod
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 8,086 ✭✭✭eigrod


    5 discharged from hospital in last 24 hours. 10 in hospital now and 6 in ICU.

    https://covid19ireland-geohive.hub.arcgis.com/


  • #6504
    GooglePlus
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,010 ✭✭✭GooglePlus


    Gael23 wrote: »
    People won’t stay apart at Christmas no matter what they are told

    I was thinking that, there isn't a hope in hell that we'll collectively sit in around Christmas. That'll be a big test for the government.


  • #6505
    dundalkfc10
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 4,719 ✭✭✭dundalkfc10


    GooglePlus wrote: »
    I was thinking that, there isn't a hope in hell that we'll collectively sit in around Christmas. That'll be a big test for the government.

    Surely the Govt wont last till Christmas?


  • #6506
    kenmc
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,283 ✭✭✭kenmc


    dundalkfc10 wrote: »
    Surely the Govt wont last till Christmas?

    Socially distant canvassing and polling stations? I'd say the last thing any TD wants is another election. Hence the scramble to create the franken-government we have been left with.


  • #6507
    froog
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,784 ✭✭✭froog


    mandrake04 wrote: »
    The XL is not a bad analyser, but that list mostly talking about ELISA type tests different process older technology.

    That list lacks top tier platforms such at Architect, Alinity, Atellica, Centaur and Elecsys. Kinda makes me laugh.

    I was interested specifically in the Liaison as martina said it was the highly accurate one used by the HSE and according to this study is not suitable for surveys of low prevalence populations such as ireland and other countries.


  • #6508
    [Deleted User]
    Posts: 10,049 ✭ [Deleted User]


    froog wrote: »
    Those are references. You get peer reviewed if you are published in a scientific journal. Im starting to doubt whether you really have a background in science or are just trolling now.

    Lots of things are published in a scientific journal. They are not the be all and end all, just studies that feed into the scientific consensus on a subject. It is possible to get 19 studies published given one result and 1 with the opposite, but for them all to be peer reviewed, published and equally scientifically valid.
    https://royalsocietypublishing.org/doi/10.1098/rsbl.2019.0174

    Will cede to Mandrake and Martina1991 on the understanding of serological testing however.


  • #6509
    Hector Savage
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 8,809 ✭✭✭Hector Savage


    Gael23 wrote: »
    How long until lockdown round 2?

    Full lockdown totally unfeasable and won't happen .... will be just more restrictions...


  • #6510
    [Deleted User]
    Posts: 18,047 ✭✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    Free mask ATMs popping in Vietnam. Press a button and three sealed masks come out. Pretty cool.


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  • #6511
    Boggles
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 42,549 ✭✭✭✭Boggles


    dundalkfc10 wrote: »
    Surely the Govt wont last till Christmas?

    General election during a pandemic?

    FF form a coalition with SF?

    Safest government in years.


This discussion has been closed.
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