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Covid 19 Part XX-26,644 in ROI (1,772 deaths) 6,064 in NI (556 deaths) (08/08)Read OP

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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 12,236 ✭✭✭✭Jim_Hodge


    What is alc?

    The cause of, and solution to, all of life's problems.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 42,566 ✭✭✭✭Boggles


    I imagine the restaurants / pubs acting like restaurants don't want the rest of them to open.


  • Posts: 10,049 ✭✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    can someone relink to him - he should be called out on this.

    bit to hasty to automatically call out people as a liar - may have had a cluster in his area, or even another virus causing symptoms.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 11,767 ✭✭✭✭ACitizenErased


    I think the pubs will open, gut feeling, the vintners will cause uproar if they don't.
    That's not what I think should happen right now but I think FF will be thinking economically.


  • Posts: 10,049 ✭✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    Boggles wrote: »
    I'll be fair surprised if NPHET recommended reopening pubs here.

    This is a big test for the FF/FG/Green cabinet.

    Go against the advice and reopen them, or heed the advice and keep them closed.

    Or a mixture of both.

    Or go with the advice and open them - if that is what is advised


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  • Closed Accounts Posts: 979 ✭✭✭Thierry12


    2.5% seroprevalance in Italy from an antibody survey with 64,000 people.

    https://twitter.com/BallouxFrancois/status/1290632180897665026?s=20

    Key points:
    Age specific IFR:
    0-17: 0.002%
    18-34: 0.02%
    35-49: 0.11%
    50-59: 0.40%
    60-69: 1.74%
    >70: 8.30%

    BUT - Population-wide IFR - 1.7%!

    Lombardy at 7.5%, other lesser-hit regions are dragging it down to 2.5 overall

    Overall, little variation in occupation with the exception of Healthcare workers, but little difference between those effected by lockdown and those not.

    Asymptomatic was at 27%

    Attempted sample size was 150,000, but many did not respond for fear of being quarantined - so likely they did have some symptoms, bringing the seroprevalence down in the final results.

    Survey was taken from mid-May to end of July

    Antibody tests have been proven to be pretty crap at showing who was infected

    Antibodies disappear in weeks in some and sometimes dont appear at all

    Alot of people that got infected in Italy in Fev/March will have insufficient antibodies in blood in July

    Do you think you have chicken pox antibodies flowing through your blood right now?

    We don't understand prevalence yet with Covid


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 11,767 ✭✭✭✭ACitizenErased


    Thierry12 wrote: »
    Antibody tests have been proven to be pretty crap at showing who was infected

    Antibodies disappear in weeks in some and sometimes dont appear at all

    Alot of people that got infected in Italy in Fev/March will have insufficient antibodies in blood in July

    Do you think you have chicken pox antibodies flowing through your blood right now?

    We don't understand prevalence yet with Covid
    Yeaahh something seems really off about those Italian results


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 42,566 ✭✭✭✭Boggles


    Or go with the advice and open them - if that is what is advised

    Obviously.

    But my post was based on my opinion that NPHET would not recommend opening pubs.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 17,907 ✭✭✭✭Loafing Oaf


    Thierry12 wrote: »
    Antibody tests have been proven to be pretty crap at showing who was infected

    Antibodies disappear in weeks in some and sometimes dont appear at all

    If antibodies are not detected, does that mean people are less likely to have immunity?


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 979 ✭✭✭Thierry12


    2.5% seroprevalance in Italy from an antibody survey with 64,000 people.

    https://twitter.com/BallouxFrancois/status/1290632180897665026?s=20

    Key points:
    Age specific IFR:
    0-17: 0.002%
    18-34: 0.02%
    35-49: 0.11%
    50-59: 0.40%
    60-69: 1.74%
    >70: 8.30%

    BUT - Population-wide IFR - 1.7%!

    Lombardy at 7.5%, other lesser-hit regions are dragging it down to 2.5 overall

    Overall, little variation in occupation with the exception of Healthcare workers, but little difference between those effected by lockdown and those not.

    Asymptomatic was at 27%

    Attempted sample size was 150,000, but many did not respond for fear of being quarantined - so likely they did have some symptoms, bringing the seroprevalence down in the final results.

    Survey was taken from mid-May to end of July

    Only interestering bit

    Lol at the antibody age IFR

    Not a chance 2 in every 10,000 under 17 were infected and 830 in every 10,000 over 70

    Covid only infects old people now?

    Antibody tests are garbage is what I come away with from that report


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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 15,252 ✭✭✭✭Arghus


    Boggles wrote: »
    I'll be fair surprised if NPHET recommended reopening pubs here.

    This is a big test for the FF/FG/Green cabinet.

    Go against the advice and reopen them, or heed the advice and keep them closed.

    Or a mixture of both.

    I won't be shocked by a classic fudge that'll satisfy nobody.

    I don't see how they can open pubs right at this moment. I don't think it's going to happen, I think we would have had kites flown over the last few days about it otherwise. There's been no noise from the powers that be suggesting that it was imminent.

    The pubs are becoming a bit of a smokescreen at the moment. Other aspects of this, like even the schools reopening, are getting less air in the media as a result. Not saying that pubs aren't significant, but I hate the Irish media's hive mind at times. Talk of the pubs reopening is dominating the discourse, when it's only one facet of a very complex picture and there's numerous other factors that are more significant still to be decided.

    It reminds me of their relentless focus in March on whether the Paddy's day parade was going to be cancelled or not, when even the dogs in the street knew it was a certainty that it wouldn't be going ahead and there were way bigger things to be concerned about. It was laughable to hear Miriam O'Callaghan on Prime Time banging on about this, when she could have been actually asking some worthwhile questions.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 11,767 ✭✭✭✭ACitizenErased


    If antibodies are not detected, does that mean people are less likely to have immunity?
    There's a lot more to immunity than antibodies. I'm no immunologist in any sense but t-cells apparently play a much bigger roll in immunity and testing for those is quite difficult. Once again, I'm not an expert so just saying what I've read.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 42,566 ✭✭✭✭Boggles


    Thierry12 wrote: »
    Only interestering bit

    Lol at the antibody age IFR

    Not a chance 2 in every 10,000 under 17 were infected and 830 in every 10,000 over 70

    Covid only infects old people now?

    Antibody tests are garbage is what I come away with from that report

    They are deaths, not infection rates.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,139 ✭✭✭What Username Guidelines


    Yeaahh something seems really off about those Italian results

    Its almost proving anti-body tests are not a reliable measure of seroprevalence tbh.
    Thierry12 wrote: »
    Only interestering bit

    Lol at the antibody age IFR

    Not a chance 2 in every 10,000 under 17 were infected and 830 in every 10,000 over 70

    Covid only infects old people now?

    Antibody tests are garbage is what I come away with from that report

    IFR is incident fatality rate. so 0.002% of all infected under 17 have died, rather than 0.002% of all under 17yos were infected.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 2,329 ✭✭✭owlbethere


    I provided my number on the app for a callback if I'm traced as a contact. Does anyone know what number the hse uses to phone contacts? Do they phone with an unknown number? I got a few unknown calls today that I didn't pick up.

    I think it's Vodafone but I'm thinking what if its hse. How are people notified when they are identifies as a contact through the app?


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 11,767 ✭✭✭✭ACitizenErased


    owlbethere wrote: »
    I provided my number on the app for a callback if I'm traced as a contact. Does anyone know what number the hse uses to phone contacts? Do they phone with an unknown number? I got a few unknown calls today that I didn't pick up.

    I think it's Vodafone but I'm thinking what if its hse. How are people notified when they are identifies as a contact through the app?
    You'll get an app notification then a phone call later


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 12,917 ✭✭✭✭iguana


    Thierry12 wrote: »
    Do you think you have chicken pox antibodies flowing through your blood right now?

    I'm very curious about how antibody testing works for Covid and other viruses. I tested positive for Rubella and Mumps antibodies 28 years after I had those viruses and for Measles 30 years after. So obviously some antibodies are detectable decades after illness. Why is Covid apparently so often undetectable months after? Is it the nature of the individual viruses and our reaction to them, Covid antibodies dissipate M/M/R ones don't? Or is it that testing for older viruses is much more refined? I've read that Memory Cell B can store antibody memories even when the antibody isn't active. So is that the case for the older viruses and tests have been developed to check that? Or is it that I just still have active antibodies for childhood illnesses floating about my system just in case?


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 26,918 ✭✭✭✭Strumms


    Arghus wrote: »
    I won't be shocked by a classic fudge that'll satisfy nobody.

    I don't see how they can open pubs right at this moment. I don't think it's going to happen, I think we would have had kites flown over the last few days about it otherwise. There's been no noise from the powers that be suggesting that it was imminent.

    The pubs are becoming a bit of a smokescreen at the moment. Other aspects of this, like even the schools reopening, are getting less air in the media as a result. Not saying that pubs aren't significant, but I hate the Irish media's hive mind at times. Talk of the pubs reopening is dominating the discourse, when it's only one facet of a very complex picture and there's numerous other factors that are more significant still to be decided.


    If they are going to delay the pubs reopening, they need to make a call on it. We are 6 days away from reopening...

    As critical as I’ve been in relation to the whole pub / vintners attitudes and disregard for the overall health picture.... it’s pretty disingenuous to give them the green light, install screens , staff training etc... and then the possibility of the rug being pulled.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 359 ✭✭The Unbearables


    Health before wealth.


  • Moderators, Education Moderators, Technology & Internet Moderators Posts: 35,229 Mod ✭✭✭✭AlmightyCushion


    Strumms wrote: »
    If they are going to delay the pubs reopening, they need to make a call on it. We are 6 days away from reopening...

    As critical as I’ve been in relation to the whole pub / vintners attitudes and disregard for the overall health picture.... it’s pretty disingenuous to give them the green light, install screens , staff training etc... and then the possibility of the rug being pulled.

    The decision is being made today.


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  • Closed Accounts Posts: 979 ✭✭✭Thierry12


    Boggles wrote: »
    They are deaths, not infection rates.

    My bad thought it was infection rate


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,172 ✭✭✭wadacrack




  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 16,260 ✭✭✭✭iamwhoiam




  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,349 ✭✭✭fly_agaric


    Arghus wrote: »
    It reminds me of their relentless focus in March on whether the Paddy's day parade was going to be cancelled or not, when even the dogs in the street knew it was a certainty that it wouldn't be going ahead and there were way bigger things to be concerned about.

    Think that might be rewriting history a bit (?)
    At least going by this website, there were people who were either less informed re likely impact of this disease on the country or just outright disbelieved the dire projections [if Covid was left go unchecked without public health controls].
    They appeared to think the Dublin parade would not be cancelled and the pubs would not be closed down.
    That doesn't even include the people who believed and still believe Ireland should plow onwards (some less productive economic units may die, but it's unlikely to be me or mine & that's a sacrifice I'm personally willing to make!). They probably stay schtum in politce company but they are out there.


  • Posts: 10,049 ✭✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    owlbethere wrote: »
    I provided my number on the app for a callback if I'm traced as a contact. Does anyone know what number the hse uses to phone contacts? Do they phone with an unknown number? I got a few unknown calls today that I didn't pick up.

    I think it's Vodafone but I'm thinking what if its hse. How are people notified when they are identifies as a contact through the app?

    Google the number - if its a known cold calling number it will come up somewhere.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 11,767 ✭✭✭✭ACitizenErased


    No COVID deaths in Northern Ireland for the 22nd consecutive day, 8 additional cases


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 11,767 ✭✭✭✭ACitizenErased


    LATEST TESTING UPDATE - 72 HOURS

    Tests conducted last 72 hours: 8142
    Tests conducted last 7 days: 24352
    Additional positive tests: 136 (99 Sunday and Monday)
    Positivity Rate last 7 days: 1.3%


  • Posts: 10,049 ✭✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    No COVID deaths in Northern Ireland for the 22nd consecutive day, 8 additional cases

    Work colleague from Belfast returned south today after a week off up there. Remarked how he was almost alone in wearing a mask and getting strange looks for doing so and how the general mood was very lax about any control measures.


  • Posts: 10,049 ✭✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    LATEST TESTING UPDATE - 72 HOURS

    Tests conducted last 72 hours: 8142
    Tests conducted last 7 days: 24352
    Additional positive tests: 136 (99 Sunday and Monday)
    Positivity Rate last 7 days: 1.3%

    Would it not be Saturday, Sunday and Monday?


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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 41,197 ✭✭✭✭Itssoeasy


    I think the pubs will open, gut feeling, the vintners will cause uproar if they don't.
    That's not what I think should happen right now but I think FF will be thinking economically.

    I wonder if Leo varadkar was still Taoiseach would there be as much caution over reopening of all pubs ? For better or worse michael Martin strikes me as someone who is over cautious and that's a good thing at times and I know pubs aren't as important as schools but it's just something I was wondering about last night with the decision that will happen today.


This discussion has been closed.
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