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Covid 19 Part XX-26,644 in ROI (1,772 deaths) 6,064 in NI (556 deaths) (08/08)Read OP

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Comments

  • #4892
    Thierry12
    Closed Accounts Posts: 979 ✭✭✭Thierry12


    bb1234567 wrote: »
    Ye are getting your decimals a bit mixed up lads.

    69 million is 5% of the Chinese population, not 0.05%

    The IFR of covid is around 0.5% or a bit higher. 0.5% of the world population is about 39 million people.
    But not 100% of the world population will contract COVID, even in a worst case scenario, so the number of deaths will be much lower than that.
    If the theory is correct that the virus generally burns out after causing the deaths of 0.05% of a given population it spreads within, we will see about 4 million deaths globally. Which does seem like the most likely scenario in my opinion, it does look like it'll be heading towards that figure between now and next March, a year on from the global outbreak, especially as restrictions become more relaxed globally.

    Its an interesting theory

    Sweden are testing that math now

    They have over 5,000 deaths with 10m population

    Exactly 0.05%

    Cases have dropped massively too

    Over 1500 cases a day to 45 cases yesterday and 0 to 1 person a day dieing now compared to 100 a day before


  • #4893
    Arghus
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 15,252 ✭✭✭✭Arghus


    John O.Groats wrote: »
    I don`t know what you are all giving out about. I have been logged in here since about 7.30pm and am not having any of these issues.

    On mobile the site has been totally fcked. Sending you back pages, error messages, quotes disappearing in replies etc, etc.

    It seems to work on mobile if you use desktop View.


  • #4894
    ShineOn7
    Closed Accounts Posts: 4,550 ✭✭✭ShineOn7


    Wolf359f wrote: »
    What we have right now is 0.00008% minimum IFR (based on deaths per world population) and regardless of cases detected, that % will increase.

    It's getting a late for my brain to go into full Maths mode, or even use the calculator on the phone. But that sounds far too low for where the IFR really is


  • #4895
    Renjit
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 949 ✭✭✭Renjit


    John O.Groats wrote: »
    I don`t know what you are all giving out about. I have been logged in here since about 7.30pm and am not having any of these issues.

    Clear the browser cache for this website, delete cookies. And try logging in again for that issue.


  • #4896
    JP Liz V1
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 91,404 ✭✭✭✭JP Liz V1


    bb1234567 wrote: »
    https://www.irishtimes.com/news/world/over-3-000-healthcare-workers-worldwide-died-from-covid-19-1.4302705

    Over 3,000 medical staff worldwide have now been lost to COVID..just :(

    A lot infected in Ireland too and still catching it :(
    https://forumofgames.com/




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  • #4897
    John O.Groats
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 837 ✭✭✭John O.Groats


    Arghus wrote: »
    On mobile the site has been totally fcked. Sending you back pages, error messages, quotes disappearing in replies etc, etc.

    It seems to work on mobile if you use desktop View.

    Oh right, I`m not viewing the site on mobile myself so that probably explains it.


  • #4898
    John O.Groats
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 837 ✭✭✭John O.Groats


    Arghus wrote: »
    On mobile the site has been totally fcked. Sending you back pages, error messages, quotes disappearing in replies etc, etc.

    It seems to work on mobile if you use desktop View.

    Oh right, I`m not viewing the site on mobile myself so that probably explains it.


  • #4899
    JP Liz V1
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 91,404 ✭✭✭✭JP Liz V1


    Myramar wrote: »
    I always get 291 -Gabbeg Your Banned!
    Whatever he did.

    Same
    https://forumofgames.com/




  • #4900
    Wolf359f
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,452 ✭✭✭Wolf359f


    Renjit wrote: »
    Except that you are not getting the realtime picture. The approach should not be reactionary here.
    True, so without seeing into the future, our R number was stable and under 1. Our 7 day average of: new cases, deaths, hospitalization, ICU admissions, community transmission were declining week on week up until last Wednesday, where new cases increased substantially.
    So how would you predict that? How can you be proactive and avoid that situation?
    This wasn't a slow tick increase day on day (milk boiling over analogy) it was a substantial jump over night


  • #4901
    fritzelly
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 18,174 ✭✭✭✭fritzelly


    John O.Groats wrote: »
    Oh right, I`m not viewing the isite on mobile myself so that probably explains it.

    I'm on desktop and it's happening

    Gabeeg - you must have been a really naughty boy


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  • #4902
    Wolf359f
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,452 ✭✭✭Wolf359f


    ShineOn7 wrote: »
    It's getting a late for my brain to go into full Maths mode, or even use the calculator on the phone. But that sounds far too low for where the IFR really is

    I messed up by 2 decimal places on a previous post, so I don't stand over that statement now. It;s too bloody late for crunching numbers for me!


  • #4903
    flanna01
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 965 ✭✭✭flanna01


    Too be honest here..

    What's the population? Maybe 5M - 6M is it??

    50 to 100 cases a day is not something to get your britches up in a bunch about is it really..??

    I don't want to upset anybody that has lost family etc.. Nor do I wish to sound cold hearted either..

    But C'mon! Are we really prepared to keep numerous sections of the economy locked down over this? The pubs, casino's and clubs will have to open sooner or later anyway..

    The country cannot afford to keep dishing out stay at home money! Jesus Christ we'er not over the banking fiasco yet..

    I know I'm going to get slated over this post, but rest assured, I have more concern about the fox taking one one of my chickens again tonight, than one of your moral high ground rebuttals (believe me, this is so true.)

    I say this... Let the pubs open again, give them the low down, it's up to them to ensure social distancing, coughing, spluttering, farting is all done 2M apart...

    And then, only then... when two weeks after opening up the wet pubs we see massive spikes, shut them all down again!!

    But at least give the publicans a chance to earn a living. Give them chance to display their professionalism, give them a chance to recoup some of the money they have spent in implicating social distancing measures..

    The country is being brought to it's knee's, we don't have the money to continue to pay the workforce to stay at home, something has to give.

    Say we have 400 / 500 new cases this week - The percentage of that verses the population number is not even worthy of highlighting.. And remember, the actual number of infected people that get seriously ill is minimal..

    We have thousands upon thousands of people landing on on shores every single day.. Nobody knows for sure where they have been, who they have met, what countries they entered before travelling to Ireland... Give me a break with the pubs!!

    Open up all the bars - if they make a pigs ear of it, so be it! Nobody to blame but themselves..

    Let's get real about it!


  • #4904
    Scoondal
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 883 ✭✭✭Scoondal


    Bars in (not Melbourne ) Victoria, Australia ... must close by midnight, every night. How awful !
    But Victoria has declared a state of disaster.
    Huh ? So, it's a disaster "if me pub is closin at 12 ?"


  • #4905
    Thierry12
    Closed Accounts Posts: 979 ✭✭✭Thierry12


    ShineOn7 wrote: »
    It's getting a late for my brain to go into full Maths mode, or even use the calculator on the phone. But that sounds far too low for where the IFR really is

    Its 0.008% now

    If the Nobel prize winner is right we have 6-7 times more death ( 3.5-4mill ) till it slows down

    US gonna lose 200,000 lives before it slows, wouldn't bet on that one


  • #4906
    B.A._Baracus
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 11,242 ✭✭✭✭B.A._Baracus


    53 cases today and mid 40s average per day...
    We all know this thing hasn't been defeated but with numbers like 53 this thing is coming back.


  • #4907
    Thierry12
    Closed Accounts Posts: 979 ✭✭✭Thierry12


    B.A._Baracus wrote: »
    53 cases today and mid 40s average per day...
    We all know this thing hasn't been defeated but with numbers like 53 this thing is coming back.

    Who knows

    We are averaging 0 - 1 deaths a day now

    We should just keep doing as we are doing and stay alert, push masks, 2m etc


  • #4908
    bb1234567
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,513 ✭✭✭bb1234567


    Wolf359f wrote: »
    I messed up by 2 decimal places on a previous post, so I don't stand over that statement now. It;s too bloody late for crunching numbers for me!

    Yep few decimals off :p

    It's 0.0089% which is almost 1 in every 10,000 people worldwide has died of COVID. Tbh it sounds pretty miniscule considering it has changed the way the world works probably forever and affected pretty much every single aspect of daily life for almost everyone in the entire world for the bones of a half a year now.


  • #4909
    Plumbthedepths
    Closed Accounts Posts: 12,653 ✭✭✭✭Plumbthedepths


    Edgy, but you get no thanks for realism in these parts stranger.


  • #4910
    ExMachina1000
    Closed Accounts Posts: 3,748 ✭✭✭ExMachina1000


    flanna01 wrote: »
    Too be honest here..

    What's the population? Maybe 5M - 6M is it??

    50 to 100 cases a day is not something to get your britches up in a bunch about is it really..??

    I don't want to upset anybody that has lost family etc.. Nor do I wish to sound cold hearted either..

    But C'mon! Are we really prepared to keep numerous sections of the economy locked down over this? The pubs, casino's and clubs will have to open sooner or later anyway..

    The country cannot afford to keep dishing out stay at home money! Jesus Christ we'er not over the banking fiasco yet..

    I know I'm going to get slated over this post, but rest assured, I have more concern about the fox taking one one of my chickens again tonight, than one of your moral high ground rebuttals (believe me, this is so true.)

    I say this... Let the pubs open again, give them the low down, it's up to them to ensure social distancing, coughing, spluttering, farting is all done 2M apart...

    And then, only then... when two weeks after opening up the wet pubs we see massive spikes, shut them all down again!!

    But at least give the publicans a chance to earn a living. Give them chance to display their professionalism, give them a chance to recoup some of the money they have spent in implicating social distancing measures..

    The country is being brought to it's knee's, we don't have the money to continue to pay the workforce to stay at home, something has to give.

    Say we have 400 / 500 new cases this week - The percentage of that verses the population number is not even worthy of highlighting.. And remember, the actual number of infected people that get seriously ill is minimal..

    We have thousands upon thousands of people landing on on shores every single day.. Nobody knows for sure where they have been, who they have met, what countries they entered before travelling to Ireland... Give me a break with the pubs!!

    Open up all the bars - if they make a pigs ear of it, so be it! Nobody to blame but themselves..

    Let's get real about it!

    The problem with that is the virus cannot be permitted to start spreading again. The knock on effect is too risky. Government cant be proactive only reactive. If it starts to spread uncontrollably in the community and gets into nursing homes again or we end up having to go back to partial lockdowns would you like to be the guy that gave the green light to open pubs?

    As per usual our lads are watching what other countries are doing first before making any decision


  • #4911
    Plumbthedepths
    Closed Accounts Posts: 12,653 ✭✭✭✭Plumbthedepths


    flanna01 wrote: »
    Too be honest here..

    What's the population? Maybe 5M - 6M is it??

    50 to 100 cases a day is not something to get your britches up in a bunch about is it really..??

    I don't want to upset anybody that has lost family etc.. Nor do I wish to sound cold hearted either..

    But C'mon! Are we really prepared to keep numerous sections of the economy locked down over this? The pubs, casino's and clubs will have to open sooner or later anyway..

    The country cannot afford to keep dishing out stay at home money! Jesus Christ we'er not over the banking fiasco yet..

    I know I'm going to get slated over this post, but rest assured, I have more concern about the fox taking one one of my chickens again tonight, than one of your moral high ground rebuttals (believe me, this is so true.)

    I say this... Let the pubs open again, give them the low down, it's up to them to ensure social distancing, coughing, spluttering, farting is all done 2M apart...

    And then, only then... when two weeks after opening up the wet pubs we see massive spikes, shut them all down again!!

    But at least give the publicans a chance to earn a living. Give them chance to display their professionalism, give them a chance to recoup some of the money they have spent in implicating social distancing measures..

    The country is being brought to it's knee's, we don't have the money to continue to pay the workforce to stay at home, something has to give.

    Say we have 400 / 500 new cases this week - The percentage of that verses the population number is not even worthy of highlighting.. And remember, the actual number of infected people that get seriously ill is minimal..

    We have thousands upon thousands of people landing on on shores every single day.. Nobody knows for sure where they have been, who they have met, what countries they entered before travelling to Ireland... Give me a break with the pubs!!

    Open up all the bars - if they make a pigs ear of it, so be it! Nobody to blame but themselves..

    Let's get real about it!

    Edgy, but you'll get no thanks around these parts for realism stranger.


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  • #4912
    Renjit
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 949 ✭✭✭Renjit


    Thierry12 wrote: »
    Who knows

    We are averaging 0 - 1 deaths a day now

    We should just keep doing as we are doing and stay alert, push masks, 2m etc

    That because virus is spreading in potentially healthy hosts. The median age has shifted.


  • #4913
    Strumms
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 26,918 ✭✭✭✭Strumms


    flanna01 wrote: »
    Too be honest here..

    Say we have 400 / 500 new cases this week - The percentage of that verses the population number is not even worthy of highlighting.. And remember, the actual number of infected people that get seriously ill is minimal..

    500 new cases per week 2000-2500 new cases per month. That would suggest by the end of the year 10,000 - 11,000 new cases. The reality is the nature of transmission with restrictions all lifted you’d be looking at double that. The only way to keep a lid on things is to make tough decisions, piss off business people and value human lives over bank accounts.


  • #4914
    Myramar
    Closed Accounts Posts: 49 ✭Myramar


    Think you are mixing CMR and IFR up but my brain is also impared so I might be wrong.


  • #4915
    Plumbthedepths
    Closed Accounts Posts: 12,653 ✭✭✭✭Plumbthedepths


    Strumms wrote: »
    500 new cases per week 2000-2500 new cases per month. That would suggest by the end of the year 10,000 - 11,000 new cases. The reality is the nature of transmission with restrictions all lifted you’d be looking at double that. The only way to keep a lid on things is to make tough decisions, piss off business people and value human lives over bank accounts.

    I'm curious the business people you are so blasé about do they not contribute to the economy, employ people generate economic activity. It's not a popular topic of conversation but society and a functioning economy are intrinsically linked.


  • #4916
    spookwoman
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 10,059 ✭✭✭✭spookwoman


    flanna01 wrote: »
    Too be honest here..

    What's the population? Maybe 5M - 6M is it??

    50 to 100 cases a day is not something to get your britches up in a bunch about is it really..??

    I don't want to upset anybody that has lost family etc.. Nor do I wish to sound cold hearted either..

    But C'mon! Are we really prepared to keep numerous sections of the economy locked down over this? The pubs, casino's and clubs will have to open sooner or later anyway..

    The country cannot afford to keep dishing out stay at home money! Jesus Christ we'er not over the banking fiasco yet..

    I know I'm going to get slated over this post, but rest assured, I have more concern about the fox taking one one of my chickens again tonight, than one of your moral high ground rebuttals (believe me, this is so true.)

    I say this... Let the pubs open again, give them the low down, it's up to them to ensure social distancing, coughing, spluttering, farting is all done 2M apart...

    And then, only then... when two weeks after opening up the wet pubs we see massive spikes, shut them all down again!!

    But at least give the publicans a chance to earn a living. Give them chance to display their professionalism, give them a chance to recoup some of the money they have spent in implicating social distancing measures..

    The country is being brought to it's knee's, we don't have the money to continue to pay the workforce to stay at home, something has to give.

    Say we have 400 / 500 new cases this week - The percentage of that verses the population number is not even worthy of highlighting.. And remember, the actual number of infected people that get seriously ill is minimal..

    We have thousands upon thousands of people landing on on shores every single day.. Nobody knows for sure where they have been, who they have met, what countries they entered before travelling to Ireland... Give me a break with the pubs!!

    Open up all the bars - if they make a pigs ear of it, so be it! Nobody to blame but themselves..

    Let's get real about it!

    Have you ever watched the animation on how infections spread. Very good demonstration of how 1 person can infect others in different scenarios
    https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/2020/world/corona-simulator/


  • #4917
    ShineOn7
    Closed Accounts Posts: 4,550 ✭✭✭ShineOn7


    flanna01 wrote: »
    Too be honest here..

    What's the population? Maybe 5M - 6M is it??

    50 to 100 cases a day is not something to get your britches up in a bunch about is it really..??

    I don't want to upset anybody that has lost family etc.. Nor do I wish to sound cold hearted either..

    But C'mon! Are we really prepared to keep numerous sections of the economy locked down over this? The pubs, casino's and clubs will have to open sooner or later anyway..

    The country cannot afford to keep dishing out stay at home money! Jesus Christ we'er not over the banking fiasco yet..

    I know I'm going to get slated over this post, but rest assured, I have more concern about the fox taking one one of my chickens again tonight, than one of your moral high ground rebuttals (believe me, this is so true.)

    I say this... Let the pubs open again, give them the low down, it's up to them to ensure social distancing, coughing, spluttering, farting is all done 2M apart...

    And then, only then... when two weeks after opening up the wet pubs we see massive spikes, shut them all down again!!

    But at least give the publicans a chance to earn a living. Give them chance to display their professionalism, give them a chance to recoup some of the money they have spent in implicating social distancing measures..

    The country is being brought to it's knee's, we don't have the money to continue to pay the workforce to stay at home, something has to give.

    Say we have 400 / 500 new cases this week - The percentage of that verses the population number is not even worthy of highlighting.. And remember, the actual number of infected people that get seriously ill is minimal..

    We have thousands upon thousands of people landing on on shores every single day.. Nobody knows for sure where they have been, who they have met, what countries they entered before travelling to Ireland... Give me a break with the pubs!!

    Open up all the bars - if they make a pigs ear of it, so be it! Nobody to blame but themselves..

    Let's get real about it!


    5 months in and still these kind of posts? :confused:

    The Irish government aren't doing these measures for the craic
    • Governments love money. They love the money they get from their VAT, the money from their economy being strong, the money from their people out and about spending it. This is especially so from our Government, they love taking our money in any way possible
    • Governments worldwide ran the numbers and they saw that, without serious intervention and restrictions, that the end result would be catastrophic
    • Not just to their people, to their hospitals and health systems. But it would also fcuk up their economy if it got seriously out of hand
    So these measures are an absolute last resort to them


    The pubs aren't opening back on the 10th. I'd bet a grand on it

    Cleverer people than many of us put together - NPHET - will run some numbers this week and they'll work out what is bigger;
    • Is it the loss of jobs in the Hospitality sector if they keep the pubs closed?
    • Or is it the RO when the pubs and schools are both open together in September?
    That and other variables will come into play

    It's not as simple as "The country's economy been brought to it's knees"
    And remember, the actual number of infected people that get seriously ill is minimal..

    A thousand percent wrong

    "Recovered" is not recovered

    This is leaving many healthy people in absolute bits after, some with life lasting effects . Yet, because they no longer test positive for Covid, they'll be listed as "Recovered"

    I can't get my head around how some people still can't understand at least some of the above

    It's nowhere near as simple as "open the pubs!"


  • #4918
    ExMachina1000
    Closed Accounts Posts: 3,748 ✭✭✭ExMachina1000


    ShineOn7 wrote: »
    5 months in and still these kind of posts? :confused:

    The Irish government aren't doing these measures for the craic
    • Governments love money. They love the money they get from their VAT, the money from their economy being strong, the money from their people out and about spending it. This is especially so from our Government, they love taking our money in any way possible
    • Governments worldwide ran the numbers and they saw that, without serious intervention and restrictions, that the end result would be catastrophic
    • Not just to their people, to their hospitals and health systems. But it would also fcuk up their economy if it got seriously out of hand
    So these measures are an absolute last resort to them


    The pubs aren't opening back on the 10th. I'd bet a grand on it

    Cleverer people than many of us put together - NPHET - will run some numbers this week and they'll work out what is bigger;
    • Is it the loss of jobs in the Hospitality sector if they keep the pubs closed?
    • Or is it the RO when the pubs and schools are both open together in September?
    That and other variables will come into play

    It's not as simple as "The country's economy being brought to it's knees"



    A thousand percent wrong

    "Recovered" is not recovered

    This is leaving many healthy people in absolute bits after, some with life lasting effects . Yet, because they no longer test positive for Covid, they'll be listed as "Recovered"

    I can't get my head around how some people stillcan't understand at least some of the above

    It's nowhere as simple as "open the pubs!"

    Many of those people may never work again


  • #4919
    [Deleted User]
    Posts: 1,817 ✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    Ventilation


  • #4920
    Strumms
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 26,918 ✭✭✭✭Strumms


    Plumbthedepths wrote: »
    I'm curious the business people you are so blasé about do they not contribute to the economy, employ people generate economic activity. It's not a popular topic of conversation but society and a functioning economy are intrinsically linked.

    Get that many people becoming infected the economy will cease to be. Short term team pain means longer and faster gain, for everyone... getting going too soon is suicide.


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  • #4921
    ShineOn7
    Closed Accounts Posts: 4,550 ✭✭✭ShineOn7


    ExMachina1000 wrote: »
    Many of those people may never work again


    As in the barstaff, Floorstaff, Hotel receptionists, Security etc?

    Why can't they find work again in November/December? Or in a different sector?


This discussion has been closed.
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