Covid 19 Part XX-26,644 in ROI (1,772 deaths) 6,064 in NI (556 deaths) (08/08)Read OP

Wolf359f · 02-08-2020 11:41PM

joeysoap wrote: »

So much for compulsory mask on public transport.last Friday got the 10:50 commuter Dundalk to Dublin Connolly. At Dundalk a few tried to board without masks but were ‘reminded’ by staff it was compulsory. About 30 on the train. Another 30 in drogheda though and as the platform was ‘away’ from me couldn’t be sure. Laytown about 50 more ( not exaggerating- mostly teenagers) about 90% with masks. Balbriggan about 100 more and much less face masks. Skerries another 50 and 80% masks. Rush -50 and about 80%. Donabate another 50 or so and the train full. Malahide - as many left as got on but again 80- 90 % wore masks.. Mostly teenagers but not all I should say.

Lucas at Connolly 100% masks but at Abbey Street ( it was lashing) no more than 80% masks. As the tram was full I couldn’t see after that but you get the gist.

So 80%+ with masks? That's pretty good. It's not 100% but very high none the less. We're not China, we can't expect 100% compliance 100% of the time.

ACitizenErased · 02-08-2020 11:46PM

Arghus wrote: »

I wonder were the sales all that great.

It's an old face saving excuse that gets rolled out: "due to circumstances beyond our control."

As far as I know Bernard Casey (the comedian) had sold out shows. Very disappointing all the same.

ACitizenErased · 02-08-2020 11:47PM

Wolf359f wrote: »

So 80%+ with masks? That's pretty good. It's not 100% but very high none the less. We're not China, we can't expect 100% compliance 100% of the time.

Speaking of that, is there an ideal compliance rate for masks? Like over 75% compliance sounds pretty good to me.

joeysoap · 02-08-2020 11:47PM

Wolf359f wrote: »

So 80%+ with masks? That's pretty good. It's not 100% but very high none the less. We're not China, we can't expect 100% compliance 100% of the time.

Maybe. But I thought it poor on crowded trains all the same.

ShineOn7 · 02-08-2020 11:49PM

Beanybabog wrote: »

Re Levitt: It’s quite hard to understand his position on the restrictions. I think he doesn’t agree with lockdowns but does with certain measures... as I said, I find it hard to get the info. After we were discussing him earlier today I did a bit of trawling on Twitter and a few interesting things popped out:-

- he believes countries already hit hard enough won’t get a second wave but those that contained the virus very well at the start are at risk now. References Sweden.

- when this is “over” is not based on the virus being gone, but rather excess deaths. Apparently Europe is there?? Deaths will still be attributed to covid 19

But we’ll have no more excess deaths.

- USA will reach 170,000 deaths in a couple of weeks: that’s his predictions for there but I assume that means excess deaths again
- seems to believe in the T Cell / natural immunity research which is why he believes it won’t continue to spread beyond 20-% Of the population
- Brazil estimates 5mil cases and 120k deaths

- 500 deaths per million I think is where he believes things taper off

Thanks for that recap

But he's had mixed predictions right so far?

- 500 deaths per million I think is where he believes things taper off

Quick off the top of my head Maths says that's just a 0.05% IFR?

JP Liz V1 · 02-08-2020 11:50PM

ACitizenErased wrote: »

As far as I know Bernard Casey (the comedian) had sold out shows. Very disappointing all the same.

I think Gavin James had sold well too

I think even non die hard core fans would have gone to a gig, any gig

The Coronas were touring in an ice cream van to promote their new album

Wolf359f · 02-08-2020 11:55PM

ACitizenErased wrote: »

Speaking of that, is there an ideal compliance rate for masks? Like over 75% compliance sounds pretty good to me.

I'm sure you could base it on community spread %
With it so low, the chances of coming into contact with an asymptomatic person (or a symptomatic person who doesn't give a ****) would be low.
It's all about risk assessment. When we had wide spread community transmission, I was **** scared to go out. With 4 community cases in the last 24hrs, I'm less scared (less risk)
Unless I decide to purposely go shopping for dog food in a factory in Kildare.

Wolf359f · 02-08-2020 11:58PM

ShineOn7 wrote: »

Thanks for that recap

But he's had mixed predictions right so far?

Quick off the top of my head Maths says that's just a 0.05% IFR?

Yup 0.05%.
So if it started in China, once they hit 69mil deaths, it will burn out, or 390mil worldwide. It's almost like he suggesting to let it burn out.

Away With The Fairies · 03-08-2020 12:01AM

JP Liz V1 wrote: »

Or catch in your toe (Covid Toes did happen)

Eeny meeny miny Moe
Catch a covid up the nose
If he screeches, let him go
Eeny meeny miny moe

Myramar · 03-08-2020 12:04AM

ShineOn7 wrote: »

Soooo .... turns out he's a spoofer too then

The first link built my hopes up as well

Has any world event had so much Misinformation as Covid? It's a clusterfcuk

The first casualty of war is the truth.

Myramar · 03-08-2020 12:13AM

GooglePlus wrote: »

Catch a Covid up the nose.

If you sneeze let one go!

ShineOn7 · 03-08-2020 12:13AM

Wolf359f wrote: »

Yup 0.05%.
So if it started in China, once they hit 69mil deaths, it will burn out, or 390mil worldwide. It's almost like he suggesting to let it burn out.

When you put it in those terms, 0.05% IFR no longer sounds great

Currently @ 680k mortalities so far worldwide. Let's be optimistic and say it'll take a year (March 2020 to March 2021) to hit a million

Let's also be optimistic and say the treatments and drug cocktails will improve (which is my main hope)

That means - according to him - it'll take over 300 years to "burn out" ;-)

fritzelly · 03-08-2020 12:18AM

Why oh why Boards do you tease me with a new post notification only to show nothing...
Also what is so special about page 324 - I've read it 13 times now

bb1234567 · 03-08-2020 12:20AM

ShineOn7 wrote: »

When you put it in those terms, 0.05% IFR no longer sounds great

Currently @ 680k mortalities so far worldwide. Let's be optimistic and say it'll take a year (March 2020 to March 2021) to hit a million

Let's also be optimistic and say the treatments and drug cocktails will improve (which is my main hope)

That means - according to him - it'll take over 300 years to "burn out" ;-)

Ye are getting your decimals a bit mixed up lads.

69 million is 5% of the Chinese population, not 0.05%

The IFR of covid is around 0.5% or a bit higher. 0.5% of the world population is about 39 million people.
But not 100% of the world population will contract COVID, even in a worst case scenario, so the number of deaths will be much lower than that.
If the theory is correct that the virus generally burns out after causing the deaths of 0.05% of a given population it spreads within, we will see about 4 million deaths globally. Which does seem like the most likely scenario in my opinion, it does look like it'll be heading towards that figure between now and next March, a year on from the global outbreak, especially as restrictions become more relaxed globally.

ShineOn7 · 03-08-2020 12:22AM

fritzelly wrote: »

Also what is so special about page 324 - I've read it 13 times now

Special Déjà vu bonus level in the Simulation

Wolf359f · 03-08-2020 12:23AM

ShineOn7 wrote: »

When you put it in those terms, 0.05% IFR no longer sounds great

Currently @ 680k mortalities so far worldwide. Let's be optimistic and say it'll take a year (March 2020 to March 2021) to hit a million

Let's also be optimistic and say the treatments and drug cocktails will improve (which is my main hope)

That means it'll take over 300 years to "burn out" ;-)

I think that's where the herd mentality falls down. Even a small IFR on a country with 1mil population (small country) is alot.
We always hear about the IFR % and if it's actually a lower number than what we have experienced in Ireland, then we actually have multiples more of cases than we have recorded. That would mean then that the % for hospitalizations and critical care are wrong. The IFR is in debate, but most countries still say ~10% need hospital care and ~1% need ICU care.

Myramar · 03-08-2020 12:23AM

fritzelly wrote: »

Why oh why Boards do you tease me with a new post notification only to show nothing...
Also what is so special about page 324 - I've read it 13 times now

I always get 291 -Gabbeg Your Banned!
Whatever he did.

ShineOn7 · 03-08-2020 12:26AM

bb1234567 wrote: »

Ye are getting your decimals a bit mixed up lads.

69 million is 5% of the Chinese population, not 0.05%

The Levitt/Nobel prize lad said 500 deaths per Million is where he sees things going I thought?

That gave me an IFR of 0.05%

But yes, it definitely sounded too low. 0.5% is what I've read upto now

Arghus · 03-08-2020 12:26AM

Myramar wrote: »

I always get 291 -Gabbeg Your Banned!
Whatever he did.

What I take from this is that you guys are not using the 40 replies per page viewing option.

Which means you're doing boards wrong.

Plumbthedepths · 03-08-2020 12:27AM

Myramar wrote: »

I always get 291 -Gabbeg Your Banned!
Whatever he did.

Repeated nasty personal attacks, happening alot here lately against particular targets.

Wolf359f · 03-08-2020 12:27AM

Myramar wrote: »

I always get 291 -Gabbeg Your Banned!
Whatever he did.

Seems to change as we post more, it's like it's 45 pages behind.
Bloody annoying as feic!

Thierry12 · 03-08-2020 12:31AM

ShineOn7 wrote: »

When you put it in those terms, 0.05% IFR no longer sounds great

Currently @ 680k mortalities so far worldwide. Let's be optimistic and say it'll take a year (March 2020 to March 2021) to hit a million

Let's also be optimistic and say the treatments and drug cocktails will improve (which is my main hope)

That means - according to him - it'll take over 300 years to "burn out" ;-)

Don't get ye

Isnt 0.05%

2500 deaths in Ireland with our 5 mill population?

3.5m deaths worldwide with 7 billion population

What's the 69m deaths in China about

0.05% of China is 700,000 deaths

Wolf359f · 03-08-2020 12:31AM

ShineOn7 wrote: »

The Levitt/Nobel prize lad said 500 deaths per Million is where he sees things going I thought?

That gave me an IFR of 0.05%

But yes, it definitely sounded too low. 0.5% is what I've read upto now

What we have right now is 0.00008% minimum IFR (based on deaths per world population) and regardless of cases detected, that % will increase.

ShineOn7 · 03-08-2020 12:33AM

Wolf359f wrote: »

Seems to change as we post more, it's like it's 45 pages behind.
Bloody annoying as feic!

Hit the ">" arrow next to the last number in the thread

It kinda works

Myramar · 03-08-2020 12:33AM

ShineOn7 wrote: »

The Levitt/Nobel prize lad said 500 deaths per Million is where he sees things going I thought?

That gave me an IFR of 0.05%

But yes, it definitely sounded too low. 0.5% is what I've read upto now

China has 1.4 billion people

10% = 0.14 Billion
5% = 0.07 Billion
0.5%=0.007 Billion
0.05%= 0.0007 Billion

0.0007 x 1,000,000,000. = 700,000

bb1234567 · 03-08-2020 12:34AM

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/world/over-3-000-healthcare-workers-worldwide-died-from-covid-19-1.4302705

Over 3,000 medical staff worldwide have now been lost to COVID..just

Renjit · 03-08-2020 12:36AM

Wolf359f wrote: »

I'm sure you could base it on community spread %
With it so low, the chances of coming into contact with an asymptomatic person (or a symptomatic person who doesn't give a ****) would be low.
It's all about risk assessment. When we had wide spread community transmission, I was **** scared to go out. With 4 community cases in the last 24hrs, I'm less scared (less risk)
Unless I decide to purposely go shopping for dog food in a factory in Kildare.

Except that you are not getting the realtime picture. The approach should not be reactionary here.

timsey tiger · 03-08-2020 12:36AM

Wolf359f wrote: »

I think that's where the herd mentality falls down. Even a small IFR on a country with 1mil population (small country) is alot.
We always hear about the IFR % and if it's actually a lower number than what we have experienced in Ireland, then we actually have multiples more of cases than we have recorded. That would mean then that the % for hospitalizations and critical care are wrong. The IFR is in debate, but most countries still say ~10% need hospital care and ~1% need ICU care.

For a single point estimate of IFR, you need make assumptions about the numbers of people at each age who get infected,we ended up with a lot of old people getting infected early on, skewing our fatality upwards.

John O.Groats · 03-08-2020 12:38AM

Wolf359f wrote: »

Seems to change as we post more, it's like it's 45 pages behind.
Bloody annoying as feic!

I don`t know what you are all giving out about. I have been logged in here since about 7.30pm and am not having any of these issues.

Wolf359f · 03-08-2020 12:39AM

Thierry12 wrote: »

Don't get ye

Isnt 0.05%

2500 deaths in Ireland with our 5 mill population?

3.5m deaths worldwide with 7 billion population

What's the 69m deaths in China about

0.05% of China is 700,000 deaths

Ah ****e, i'm only out 2 decimal places!

Covid 19 Part XX-26,644 in ROI (1,772 deaths) 6,064 in NI (556 deaths) (08/08)Read OP

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