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Covid 19 Part XX-26,644 in ROI (1,772 deaths) 6,064 in NI (556 deaths) (08/08)Read OP

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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,880 ✭✭✭FishOnABike


    schmoo2k wrote: »
    Bit of a stretch blaming any specific airline I would have thought?

    I think it's more a problem of the airline being slow to cooperate with contact tracing thereby hindering identifying potential close contacts who shared the same flight so they can be followed up and tested.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 36,633 ✭✭✭✭LuckyLloyd


    It is a 0.3% posivity rate though? There's no ifs/buts about it

    You can see the differences in context between:

    i) scheduled weekly test of care home worker
    ii) protocol test of patient scheduled for medical procedure
    iii) test due to GP referral for person in the community experiencing symptoms
    iv) test due to person being contact traced as close contact of confirmed case

    Right?

    Hint: the expectation of the test being positive is dramatically higher for option 4 as opposed to option 3 and so on.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 326 ✭✭Level 42


    Why pick Tuesday?

    I am well aware of the numbers and they all tally fairly well over the week, however what is clear is they have modified the process for turning positive test results into confirmed cases following a weekend. Likely for administrative reason, or maybe even the increase in testing of close contacts. They will always prioritise the hospital cases and symptomatic over close contacts with no symptoms, and a few weeks back they weren’t getting tested in any widespread manner. Now they are, and we have this Tuesday backlog all of a sudden, and also data telling us 50 % of cases are identified close contacts.

    What is to be gained by having low numbers 6 days a week and a peak on a Tuesday if someone is trying to game the system?

    If boards posters know the figures before the official released figures I know these figures today are incorrect. That's all now p off


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 11,767 ✭✭✭✭ACitizenErased


    LuckyLloyd wrote: »
    You can see the differences in context between:

    i) scheduled weekly test of care home worker
    ii) protocol test of patient scheduled for medical procedure
    iii) test due to GP referral for person in the community experiencing symptoms
    iv) test due to person being contact traced as close contact of confirmed case

    Right?

    Hint: the expectation of the test being positive is dramatically higher for option 4 as opposed to option 3 and so on.
    Yeah but it's the exact same as every other country in the world. The more you test in a country where the virus is basically eliminated from the majority of settings, the less the positivity rate is gonna be, that's basic maths.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 1,662 ✭✭✭Duke of Url


    owlbethere wrote: »
    Sh1t, sh1t, sh1t and sh1t. I was feeling fairly confident to book a night away this weekend. Now I'm getting nervous and getting some cold feet.

    This is why we need a background story into community transmissions.

    The people who caught it from community transmission, what precautions did they take when out and about. Where they the type of people who were wearing masks and using sanitizer or where the people who just let faith decide and ignored safety recommendation.


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  • Posts: 10,049 ✭✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    Level 42 wrote: »
    If boards posters know the figures before the official released figures I know these figures today are incorrect. That's all now p off

    Positive Tests and confirmed cases are not the same thing. The data ACE uses is published for everyone to see. So if is a conspiracy, it’s an incredibly inept one, but if you prefer your tin hat, off with you


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 2,329 ✭✭✭owlbethere


    hmmm wrote: »
    The risk is low, and is even lower if you take sensible precautions like social distancing, washing your hands, wear a mask when you're indoors and mixing with other people. It's not something to worry about - go for a nice walk in a forest park.

    Have some walking planned for the weekend. I'm definitely turning OCD. I'm nearing thinking about bringing my own pillows for the night. Bringing a picnic bag of bottles of booze and glasses, mainly because there won't be a pub open in site.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 473 ✭✭ChelseaRentBoy


    owlbethere wrote: »
    Just catching up with todays news. 40 new cases. The cases are climbing and 40 is a lot.

    It is very worrying alright.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 2,329 ✭✭✭owlbethere


    This is why we need a background story into community transmissions.

    The people who caught it from community transmission, what precautions did they take when out and about. Where they the type of people who were wearing masks and using sanitizer or where the people who just let faith decide and ignored safety recommendation.

    A history of community transmissions good.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,139 ✭✭✭What Username Guidelines


    Why pick Tuesday?

    I am well aware of the numbers and they all tally fairly well over the week, however what is clear is they have modified the process for turning positive test results into confirmed cases following a weekend. Likely for administrative reason, or maybe even the increase in testing of close contacts. They will always prioritise the hospital cases and symptomatic over close contacts with no symptoms, and a few weeks back they weren’t getting tested in any widespread manner. Now they are, and we have this Tuesday backlog all of a sudden, and also data telling us 50 % of cases are identified close contacts.

    What is to be gained by having low numbers 6 days a week and a peak on a Tuesday if someone is trying to game the system?

    Exactly. The number of positive tests is easy to compile. All the lbs need to do is report positives and negatives in a 24hr window. Bang it up on the dashboard, job done. And it’s a rolling total, so if they do spot a mistake it’s easy to fix and no one is any the wiser.

    Now the HSPC have to validate the data in some way. Make sure they’re not double counting. Get info on patient, ensure they’re a “new” patient. This likely takes some work and possibly multiple systems that require human intervention and confirmations. This probably doesn’t happen at the weekend. These numbers are reported as datasets, not a rolling total, so harder to fix mistakes retroactively.

    I don’t believe it’s a conspiracy to scare people, because if it is, it’s bloody obvious that it’s a weekly pattern and not a new wave. I do however believe they could report in a far better way, even allowing for this anomaly, by reporting “X cases today, with Y in last 24hrs and Z over the previous 72hrs”.

    Or as I mentioned earlier, just publish a graph with cases by date of swab. Put them in blue for example. Then when they add new ones, put those in red. Most will be “today” and maybe some others will be on top of the last few days. Simple and transparent.


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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 596 ✭✭✭majcos


    Swabs from test centres are processed by the NVRL. Before the pandemic they weren't open for routine testing at weekends. Then they threw all resources they could to Covid testing.

    Tests are still being processed 24/7 but maybe some administration supports have been rolled back until Mondays again. Cillian DeGascun would be the man to ask.
    Not all tests being performed in NVRL. This was the case initially but many hospitals now have platforms set up for testing. There were tests being performed in 18 different laboratories by early April and 43 different laboratories by mid May. Turnaround time for test results now down to an hour for people requiring admission to hospitals in some places.

    A number of factors contribute to Tuesday jump. Tuesday figures are comprised of notifications of new positive cases reported to HPSC of midnight on the Monday. Less people present for testing over weekends. There is a tendency to wait to see how one feels and make an appointment for Monday rather than see an unknown GP over weekend. GPs and hospital EDs are always far busier on Monday than they are on Saturday or Sunday. Even if case presents and is tested on a Saturday or Sunday, as you mention, that case may not be reported to NPSC over weekend. Although lab staff are working, the secretarial/admin side is limited so that case is not notified to NPSC until Monday and then only appears on Tuesday figures.


  • Posts: 10,049 ✭✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    It is very worrying alright.

    Were you as worried the last 2 days?


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 11,767 ✭✭✭✭ACitizenErased


    A person on Reddit is claiming to work in a hospital and have been antibody tested. They said the positive antibody tests are being added to confirmed case numbers, just like in Spain. Anyone know anything about this?


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 11,203 ✭✭✭✭hmmm


    I don’t believe it’s a conspiracy to scare people, because if it is, it’s bloody obvious that it’s a weekly pattern and not a new wave. I do however believe they could report in a far better way, even allowing for this anomaly, by reporting “X cases today, with Y in last 24hrs and Z over the previous 72hrs”.

    Or as I mentioned earlier, just publish a graph with cases by date of swab. Put them in blue for example. Then when they add new ones, put those in red. Most will be “today” and maybe some others will be on top of the last few days. Simple and transparent.
    Yes - it's feeding the conspiracy nuts. Report a 7 day moving average.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,548 ✭✭✭Martina1991


    They are posting the raw data. Positive tests one day minus the previous day. There may well have been some people tested multiple times. There have in fact been almost 4,000 more positive tests than cases. There is a poster on this site in the labs so may be able to ahead more light on it, but I would imagine there is a review process from when a positive result from a sample, likely only identified by a number, becomes a confirmed case. And it is also not surprising to see that some of these on a weekend slip until Monday.

    I can only comment on what happens at our hospital.
    -Swabs are checked individually that the details on the swab match the details on the form.
    -Healthcare workers and hospital patients are processed in house.
    -Swabs from the community are entered onto the hospital system, given a barcode an unique number, and then packaged up to be sent to the NVRL. A courier comes twice a day.
    -Then there is some sample preparation. The swabs themselves aren't loaded onto an instrument. Any viral particles first have to be suspended in a liquid solution.
    - Once all the automated analysis (PCR) is complete, the controls are checked. If the controls don't work you have to start the batch again.
    - If the controls are ok, the results are valid. Each result is checked and double checked by a second person.
    -The results are then released onto the hospital information system and that's it.

    It's then up to the Dr in the hospital who requested the test to look up the result and treat the patient accordingly. Positive results are phoned.

    I don't know what person in the hospital is responsible for reporting the daily figures to the HPSC or what time they report them.

    After cases are reported to the HPSC the results go through the text/phone process. I don't know anything about how that works.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,139 ✭✭✭What Username Guidelines


    owlbethere wrote: »
    Have some walking planned for the weekend. I'm definitely turning OCD. I'm nearing thinking about bringing my own pillows for the night. Bringing a picnic bag of bottles of booze and glasses, mainly because there won't be a pub open in site.

    Couldn’t be a better time to go. We’ve come a hell of a long way since April, numbers are below 20 avg in last 7 days. If we get hit with another massive wave, at least you’ll have had a nice break. If we don’t get another wave, at least you’ll have had a nice break.

    I did a week in Waterford with wife and kid and it did us the world of good.

    Don’t worry about feeling ocd, do whatever makes you feel comfortable and whatever is needed for you to enjoy the night away. If it seems silly, so what. The only silly thing I can see in the post is bringing your own pillows, when bringing your own pillow cases would be far less hassle ;)


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 1,662 ✭✭✭Duke of Url


    Were you as worried the last 2 days?

    People will get worried every time cases are going up.

    People like me and others want to know with confirmed cases in the teens, for weeks, how the funk people are still catching COVID.

    Does it look like they caught it in work, shops, cafes, salons, public transport.

    I understand close contact , but community transmission we need more information on so people can learn from it.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 596 ✭✭✭majcos


    A person on Reddit is claiming to work in a hospital and have been antibody tested. They said the positive antibody tests are being added to confirmed case numbers, just like in Spain. Anyone know anything about this?
    If not previously counted or PCR tested, I think that case is added to the total as a newly notified case to HPSC. The timing of the notification does not always correlate with the timing of the case as seen in the Tuesday blips. The wording of the publication of the daily statements from the NPHET does specify that the HPSC has been notified of X number of confirmed cases rather than stating that there are X number of new cases diagnosed.

    Some of the antibody testing within hospitals gives both IgM (recent/active case) and IgG (previous/past case) results. If IgM within a hospital that would definitely be notified to HPSC.

    I am not as sure what is happening with antibody testing from the research side as in the Dublin and Sligo study or with testing done through the TMB.


  • Site Banned Posts: 5,975 ✭✭✭podgeandrodge


    owlbethere wrote: »
    Sh1t, sh1t, sh1t and sh1t. I was feeling fairly confident to book a night away this weekend. Now I'm getting nervous and getting some cold feet.

    With the numbers so ****ing huge I wouldn't leave the house if I were you. Stay safe out there!


  • Posts: 10,049 ✭✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    majcos wrote: »
    If not previously counted or PCR tested, I think that case is added to the total as a newly notified case to HPSC. The timing of the notification does not always correlate with the timing of the case as seen in the Tuesday blips. The wording of the publication of the daily statements from the NPHET does specify that the HPSC has been notified of X number of confirmed cases rather than stating that there are X number of new cases diagnosed.

    Some of the antibody testing within hospitals gives both IgM (recent/active case) and IgG (previous/past case) results. If IgM within a hospital that would definitely be notified to HPSC.

    I am not as sure what is happening with antibody testing from the research side as in the Dublin and Sligo study or with testing done through the TMB.

    If they are doing this it needs to be expressly called out in the data. Likely 200k+ gave had the virus, and as the serology testing becomes more prevalent those who believe they had it are more likely to present for testing, this skewing the current data. There has been the quirk of the reports stating the number of cases confirmed in the past 14 days being higher than the new positive tests from the past 14 days...?


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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 596 ✭✭✭majcos


    With the numbers so ****ing huge I wouldn't leave the house if I were you. Stay safe out there!
    Just don’t go to Portiuncla. The new hot zone tonight!


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 410 ✭✭Icantthinkof1


    A person on Reddit is claiming to work in a hospital and have been antibody tested. They said the positive antibody tests are being added to confirmed case numbers, just like in Spain. Anyone know anything about this?

    I haven’t heard anything about antibody tests being added to the numbers; I do know that hospitals are contacting parents of children who were hospitalised as far back as February for chest related issues asking if they would like their child checked for antibodies


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,548 ✭✭✭Martina1991


    majcos wrote: »
    Not all tests being performed in NVRL. This was the case initially but many hospitals now have platforms set up for testing. There were tests being performed in 18 different laboratories by early April and 43 different laboratories by mid May. Turnaround time for test results now down to an hour for people requiring admission to hospitals in some places.

    A number of factors contribute to Tuesday jump. Tuesday figures are comprised of notifications of new positive cases reported to HPSC of midnight on the Monday. Less people present for testing over weekends. There is a tendency to wait to see how one feels and make an appointment for Monday rather than see an unknown GP over weekend. GPs and hospital EDs are always far busier on Monday than they are on Saturday or Sunday. Even if case presents and is tested on a Saturday or Sunday, as you mention, that case may not be reported to NPSC over weekend. Although lab staff are working, the secretarial/admin side is limited so that case is not notified to NPSC until Monday and then only appears on Tuesday figures.
    Yes I know that. But there's a discrepancy that ACE and others have been pointing out that positive tests results are occuring at weekends but not being reported until 2 days later. Why not report them on the day they occur.

    I mentioned that the NVRL may be the source for this discrepancy as they are not a routine lab. They are a reference lab. So they may not be reporting their cases like routine hospitals do on a daily basis.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 841 ✭✭✭setanta1984


    owlbethere wrote: »
    Sh1t, sh1t, sh1t and sh1t. I was feeling fairly confident to book a night away this weekend. Now I'm getting nervous and getting some cold feet.

    Do posts on boards.ie factor into many of your life decisions?


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,548 ✭✭✭Martina1991


    majcos wrote: »
    If not previously counted or PCR tested, I think that case is added to the total as a newly notified case to HPSC. The timing of the notification does not always correlate with the timing of the case as seen in the Tuesday blips. The wording of the publication of the daily statements from the NPHET does specify that the HPSC has been notified of X number of confirmed cases rather than stating that there are X number of new cases diagnosed.

    Some of the antibody testing within hospitals gives both IgM (recent/active case) and IgG (previous/past case) results. If IgM within a hospital that would definitely be notified to HPSC.

    I am not as sure what is happening with antibody testing from the research side as in the Dublin and Sligo study or with testing done through the TMB.

    Do you know if/what hospitals are performing antibody tests routinely?

    I didn't think they were available through the public system yet.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 596 ✭✭✭majcos


    Yes I know that. But there's a discrepancy that ACE and others have been pointing out that positive tests results are occuring at weekends but not being reported until 2 days later. Why not report them on the day they occur.

    I mentioned that the NVRL may be the source for this discrepancy as they are not a routine lab. They are a reference lab. So they may not be reporting their cases like routine hospitals do on a daily basis.
    Think you’re right that discrepancy is due to the administrative/secretarial staff. This side of staffing is more limited in NVRL and all other labs too at weekends so even if scientists are working away and processing tests, those results don’t go through to HPSC as quickly.

    Specialist nurses such as those in infection control usually work Monday to Friday too. In some hospitals, they are responsible for confirming that it isn’t a new positive rather than a repeat positive before being notified to HPSC so that holds things up at weekend and case not reported until Monday and then blips the Tuesday numbers.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,251 ✭✭✭speckle


    Gp's still not allowed to ask for antibody tests. This has to change asap.
    Separately, turn around approx. 48 hrs in last week for pcr at home test for a very high risk person. Phoned in by Gp ...testor arrived same day within a couple of hours. Just to add test result rang back to individual as they are definetly not young and not mobile tech savy. fyi
    Hope all counties just as fast.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 326 ✭✭Level 42


    It is very worrying alright.

    Tis allright fella better stay off the streets


  • Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 4,719 ✭✭✭dundalkfc10


    GAA needs to be stopped, every day there's clubs closing down due to cases


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  • Posts: 10,049 ✭✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    GAA needs to be stopped, every day there's clubs closing down due to cases

    This is the system working. Club member tests positive, club suspends activities, contacts tested and isolated, club restarts. What is wrong with that? The clubs are closing to prevent spread not because they caused it


This discussion has been closed.
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