Covid 19 Part XX-26,644 in ROI (1,772 deaths) 6,064 in NI (556 deaths) (08/08)Read OP

https://twitter.com/subgap/status/1287492383484018688

Assetbacked wrote: »

Pointless statistics? I never said anything about "few cases" I posted stats about how bad (or not bad) the reported cases actually were. Just stop fighting data and admit you're ignorant and masochistic because it's tiring to keep repeating ourselves. You're directly disagreeing with official data. Just stop.

Show me data that contradicts my point that it isn't that harmful. Please. Otherwise just stfu.

The entire world hasn't half-shut down for something which is "harmless", would you ever cop yourself on.

Strumms wrote: »

Can social distancing be achieved, with that many people ?

The air is indeed fresh, virus free. Is there any way of ensuring that each participant is virus free ? Are the organizers implementing temperature checks ? Distancing marshals along the mountain ?

Over the last few years 23, 21 & 30 people sustained injuries per year climbing the mountain... all of whom needed medical intervention and assistance. This information is in the public domain..

Hospitals, emergency services, mountain rescue really need this kind of fûcking headache with covid, like a hole in the head they do.

Again the billy big bollôcks religious nut jobs out for themselves and to hell with the trouble they’ll potentially cause.

Here you go again getting hot under the collar over a non event.You would bump into ten times that amount walking around Dundrum shopping centre today.Two to three hundred people walk it every day during the summer months all for different reasons exercise,enjoyment,challenge.Probably a small amount for religious reasons and as regards your derogatory religious nut jobs maybe a hand full.

lukas8888 wrote: »

Here you go again getting hot under the collar over a non event.You would bump into ten times that amount walking around Dundrum shopping centre today.Two to three hundred people walk it every day during the summer months all for different reasons exercise,enjoyment,challenge.Probably a small amount for religious reasons and as regards your derogatory religious nut jobs maybe a hand full.

so now we have somebody comparing climbing Croagh Patrick to someone strolling around Dundrum shopping center. You need a lie down and a satsuma my friend.

JJayoo wrote: »

There not all for me silly, me and the lads will go in and I will buy food and 15 pints for the boyos, then we head into the next pub and another lad does it.

Like the 12 pubs of Christmas....but in Summer.....while pretending to like horse racing

So 1 meal per group in each pub?

Always keep the popcorn ready

Strumms wrote: »

so now we have somebody comparing climbing Croagh Patrick to someone strolling around Dundrum shopping center. You need a lie down and a satsuma my friend.

What are you on about,more likely to get infected climbing a mountain single file or mixing with hundreds in a confined indoor shopping centre. I know who needs the lie down.

Van.Bosch wrote: »

The other thing I would say is no disease has ever had such expertise and money thrown at it to produce a working vaccine.

Add to this is the fact that trials and manufacturing are happening concurrently which would not happen in other cases. This reduces the time to general release as as soon as a candidate passes a trial it's is ready for distribution.

lukas8888 wrote: »

Here you go again getting hot under the collar over a non event.You would bump into ten times that amount walking around Dundrum shopping centre today.Two to three hundred people walk it every day during the summer months all for different reasons exercise,enjoyment,challenge.Probably a small amount for religious reasons and as regards your derogatory religious nut jobs maybe a hand full.

I don't see mountain climbing itself being particularly dangerous (outside, usually not huge groups etc.), but Reek Sunday was officially cancelled and rightly so - there's always a couple of people who get into trouble, and mountain rescue and paramedic volunteers would have had to put their health at risk to go help them. The issue this year was not about large groups of people congregating, it was about not asking volunteers to go rescue people on stretchers etc.

It was great to see people heeded the request, I believe the numbers were down around 90%.

Assetbacked wrote: »

Why don't you show me that data considering you refuse to accept the Irish data and outline epicentres at a high level from two different continents. Show me data from NYC and Italy that demonstrates that covid could've been worse in Ireland in terms of median age of cases versus deaths.

Is spending two minutes googling too difficult for you, or are you concerned by what you might see? Why are you so afraid of this virus that you are hiding from it? Do you really think the virus only affects people over the age of 75?

Here, I'll google it for you:
https://www.statista.com/statistics/1106372/coronavirus-death-rate-by-age-group-italy/

Assetbacked wrote: »

That backs up what I'm saying that, despite the load of cases, the death rate wasnt high in younger age groups.

New York city had approx 20,000 Covid deaths, of which half were in groups under the age of 75.
https://www1.nyc.gov/site/doh/covid/covid-19-data-deaths.page

4,231 in ages 45-64.

Now given that's 0.025% of the total population which have died, we can calculate this as a lower bound of the total potential Covid death rates.

Antibody testing in New York city showed that even the worst affected areas had less than 25% positivity, and many of the areas were less than 20%. Putting the antibody statistics together with the death rate, most reputable scientists think the total potential death rate in New York city is somewhere around 0.65%. The city population also skews younger (and fitter) than most other areas in the US. Older populations such as Italy would be expected to see a higher date rate. Extrapolating 0.65% out to Ireland leads to an estimate of over 30,000 potential deaths, not to mention the cost in terms of impact on medical staff, potential long-term Covid impacts on the health of those who survive, and the economic impact of an unchecked pandemic across the country.

Is Boards playing up still or has Beasty been doing some spring cleaning?

Thierry12 wrote: »

Antibody tests are crap and miss lots of cases

Why do people keep bringing them up when they are not accurate?

Many many people have had Covid19 and tested negative for antibodies months, even weeks later, they tell us nothing.

Do you think chicken pox antibodies are flowing through your blood right now?

Umm what? They are reasonably accurate, and if done at least 15 days after the patient was exposed then they are very accurate. If they were as inaccurate as you believe them to be countries across the world would not be interested in partaking in expensive large scale antibod testing.

'The researchers found that the sensitivity (the proportion of the people who have had COVID-19 that the test can detect) of antibody testing is very closely related to when the test is performed. Tests of the IgG and IgM antibodies at 8 to 14 days after onset of symptoms correctly identified only 70% of people who had COVID-19. However, when the researchers looked at data reported at between 15 and 35 days after symptoms first began, antibody tests accurately detected over 90% of people with COVID-19. There are insufficient studies to estimate the sensitivity of antibody tests beyond 35 days after the beginning of symptoms. The tests only wrongly diagnosed COVID-19 in 1% to 2% of people without COVID-19.'

https://www.cochrane.org/news/new-cochrane-review-assesses-how-accurate-antibody-tests-are-detecting-covid-19

They're not perfect, but they give researchers and policy makers a very solid understanding of the spread of infection in a given area, especially in places where there lots of infections, the more infections there are the less likely a false positive is to occur.

In a population where COVID-19 was more common there would be more false negatives and fewer false positives.

So the New York antibod testing gives a very good idea of what the global IFR is due to the quality of the study and the fact that New York has such a diverse population, it is no surprise at all that 1300 scientists from all over the globe recently reached a consensus that the global IFR of COVID is very similar to that of the result of the NYC study.