Covid19 Part XIX-25,802 in ROI (1,753 deaths) 5,859 in NI (556 deaths) (21/07)Read OP

MickeyLeari wrote: »

I was reading there about the R rate. They are saying their best estimate is that it is 1.5 but that it could be as high as 1.8. Does that mean it could be as low as 1.2 if they are looking at a margin of error?

Harry Palmr wrote: »

I'm just checking to be sure, you know that is the Cork version of Waterford Whispers don't you?

Speak Now wrote: »

133 confirmed cases in 7 days, the woman beside me in work thinks the country is riddled with it now. No calming her down this morning.

SeaBreezes wrote: »

Two self obsessed idiots. A huge loss to any government.

Theyd lose far more people if they pandered to the idiots.

D.Q wrote: »

Can't wait til this is all over and these threads are carved on stone tablets in the national history museum.

ShineOn7 wrote: »

Briefings summary by Laura on Reddit Ireland



New Cases: 21
Denotified: 6
Total Cases: 25,698
New Death: 1
Denotified: N/A
Total Deaths: 1,749


Over the past 14 days

• Cases notified: 239
• Cases occuring during this time: 186
• Median age: 33
• Males: 71
• Females: 113
• Underlying conditions: 41
• Healthcare workers: 67
• Cases in Dublin: 96
• Cases in Kildare: 19
• Cases in Cork 11
• Remaining 60 spread across: 15 other counties

Hospital

• Confirmed cases in hospital: 11
• Of these, in ICU: 8

Residential Settings (Includes nursing homes)

• Clusters: 468
• Total Cases: 7455
• Total Deaths: 1107

Nursing Homes

• Clusters: 266
• Total Cases: 5864
• Total Deaths: 985

Modelling Data

• Average cases per day at the start of June: 9
• Average cases per day now: 19
• All other indicators of sever disease (Hospitalisations, ICU, deaths) remain very low and stable

• Concerning increase in number of cases, and those not presenting yet as sever cases
• Over 7,000 tests per day - lots of targeted contacts of healthcare workers and close contacts
• Central issue is that case numbers are increase
• 5 day average over entire pandemic, with two measures of incidence - date swab taken, date result confirmed. Until June 9-10. Since late June the average is around 20
• Looking at 14 day cumulative day incidence - at peak we were at a little over 200/100,000. End of June it was very low, but is beginning to rise again
• Mix of cases is important to know - 40% are sporadic, isolated occurring in households/extended families

• Seeing an increasing number of clusters in the past few weeks
• Level of detection in healthcare workers has remained constant
• Very few cases in residential care facilities
• About 60% of cases are identifiable as a close contact of a confirmed case
• 20% in hospital/healthcare settings
• Fewer than 10% are imported cases
• 1/5 cases are imported - either someone with the virus enters the country, or infects someone else in the country.

• Our model we know is an overestimate, which gives us a little over 2
• The Imperial Model is based on deaths, and so is an underestimate
• Best estimate is that it is above 1 - we are confident in this.
• Best estimate this week is 1.4. Could be as high as 1.8
• Last week it was 1.2

• Showed a number of graphs showing what would happen if R number increased - couldn't make it out
• The model predicts for an R = 1.2 we would be seeing 13 cases
• For R=1.8 we would be seeing 30 cases today

ShineOn7 wrote: »

Yeah as great as her note taking is of the briefings, she comes across far too blunt in her replies many times

owlbethere wrote: »

I was busy all day. What is the good news about the Oxford Vaccine?

I had so much faith in the Oxford Vaccine. I was here on boards willing people to stay on course with the guidelines and I had so much hope for the vaccine for winter time.

Fingers crossed 🀞