Covid19 Part XIX-25,802 in ROI (1,753 deaths) 5,859 in NI (556 deaths) (21/07)Read OP

is_that_so · 16-07-2020 09:59AM

MD1990 wrote: »

Pubs cant even open at 20-30 cases a day.

I dont see how they will be open for much of the year now.

Winter with the flu people will be panicking thinking they have the virus & people being more indoors will mean a rise in cases most likely.

Very worrying times for people in that industry. Would feel sorry for them.

It is at this point you need to see some development work of long term public health planning, not the crisis mode we've been in for months. We certainly can't function like this during a winter flu' season. At the very least it may encourage a very big take up on flu' shots.

is_that_so · 16-07-2020 10:01AM

B.A._Baracus wrote: »

Seems like the second wave is among us.
Pubs should remain closed until September. See what's going on first. I know it's hard on the pub industry however people are idiots.

15-30 cases a day is more like a ripple, probably temporary.

RebelButtMunch · 16-07-2020 10:03AM

Anecdotal; but I've heard of people NOT going for tests and toughing out the virus at home. Reason; they think that the health insurers will increase their coverage charge because of suspected Covid long term effects on health.

Anyone else hear that?

MerlinSouthDub · 16-07-2020 10:06AM

is_that_so wrote: »

15-30 cases a day is more like a ripple, probably temporary.

It is probably a temporary ripple but I think they are right to pause for a few weeks before going ahead. The numbers have been bouncing around a bit over the past few weeks and it would be good to see them stabilising before we move to the next phase.

Atlantic Dawn · 16-07-2020 10:06AM

RebelButtMunch wrote: »

Anecdotal; but I've heard of people NOT going for tests and toughing out the virus at home. Reason; they think that the health insurers will increase their coverage charge because of suspected Covid long term effects on health.

Anyone else hear that?

Health insurance in Ireland doesn't work like that. Life insurance probably will down the line ask the questioning you have ever tested positive for Covid 19.

Drumpot · 16-07-2020 10:09AM

B.A._Baracus wrote: »

Seems like the second wave is among us.
Pubs should remain closed until September. See what's going on first. I know it's hard on the pub industry however people are idiots.

Is there a second wave???

The problem as I see it is communication. Why are they doing this and not addressing the foreign travel situation? I don’t think you open pubs just because you aren’t changing your stance on travel but you need to explain your decisions if you want the population to follow.

This isn’t rocket science and it’s one of the few things of the virus we should be able to manage.

Deeper Blue · 16-07-2020 10:12AM

"Second wave" is a term so overused at this stage that I genuinely think many people don't know what it actually entails, including journalists.

Drumpot · 16-07-2020 10:13AM

Atlantic Dawn wrote: »

Health insurance in Ireland doesn't work like that. Life insurance probably will down the line ask the questioning you have ever tested positive for Covid 19.

Life assurance companies already ask it. I’ve had few clients postponed based on COVID.

Also there’s a reasonable chance that our life expectancy will go down and the cost of life assurance will go up. Not just that income protection and serious illness cover will increase aswell. We still don’t know long term effects of COVID and the damage it can do to the body.

NegativeCreep · 16-07-2020 10:13AM

Eod100 wrote: »

I can understand their frustration to a point but this is a ridiculous suggestion tbf

I think they’re just pointing out the flaw in logic by the government. House parties are causing clusters so keep the pubs closed? Obviously off sales of alcohol in supermarkets contribute more to house parties than whether or not pubs remain closed. Stopping supermarkets selling alcohol is a stupid idea but at least it would have made a bit of sense.

owlbethere · 16-07-2020 10:15AM

US2 wrote: »

Yes they couldn't attend the racecourse but still had planned heading to galway for them. Pubs and betting go hand in hand. Thats just one of the reasons that might have been considered.

That's ridiculous if people had plans to go to Galway for the Galway races when the races are going ahead behind closed doors. It's probably a good thing now that pubs aren't allowed open because people will take their drunken sessions to Quay Street and pack out Quay Street and Cross Street like sardines in a can.

airy fairy · 16-07-2020 10:17AM

NegativeCreep wrote: »

I think they’re just pointing out the flaw in logic by the government. House parties are causing clusters so keep the pubs closed? Obviously off sales of alcohol in supermarkets contribute more to house parties than whether or not pubs remain closed. Stopping supermarkets selling alcohol is a stupid idea but at least it would have made a bit of sense.

Pubs being kept closed is not because of house parties.
It's just the incidence of infection and spread has increased. Pubs are a high risk for spread, house parties or not.
It would be negligent of any government to throw the doors of a pub open when rates are rising.

JDD · 16-07-2020 10:17AM

I'm sure this has been asked already but...

So we were down to five or six new cases a day after the strict lockdown. And now, with restrictions lifting, the number of new cases every day is rising, leading to the R number increasing to above 1.

But...wasn't this expected? Surely NPHET didn't expect that the numbers of new cases every day would continue to fall (to what - eventually zero?) while shops, cafes, travel opened back up again?

The point of the full lockdown was to prevent overwhelming our health system, and to give us breathing space to put in test, track and trace processes, and to give it time to change the population's daily behaviour. And that is exactly what it has done. Now, daily cases will increase (and of course that means the R rate is over 1), but not to a level that overwhelms the health system because we are keeping 2m apart, wearing masks, not using public transport so much, not working in air conned offices so much, not going out to packed pubs,clubs, and concerts. And we have a better test, track and trace system (though it could be still improved).

I expect that the R rate will hover around 1.5 over the next week or two, before falling back down to just over 1, and we may end up with a constant level of 100-200 new cases a day. The percentage of deaths will not be the same as April/May, as a) we have a better system in the nursing homes and b) as painful as it is, a lot of the most vulnerable have died from it already, or have recovered with - hopefully - antibodies.

It's not ideal to have 100-200 cases a day, but without closing our airports and going back to complete lockdown, we're not going to eradicate covid. So I think it is just something we have to accept.

And again, surely none of this is a surprise. Isn't an increase in cases and the R rate going over 1 exactly what they were planning for when reopening the economy?

is_that_so · 16-07-2020 10:19AM

MerlinSouthDub wrote: »

It is probably a temporary ripple but I think they are right to pause for a few weeks before going ahead. The numbers have been bouncing around a bit over the past few weeks and it would be good to see them stabilising before we move to the next phase.

I think we are owed much better communications on what government plans are, regardless. It really can't all hinge on what an R0 value is. What will they do if we are at similar levels in another 3 weeks? Keep pushing Phase 5 out?

Minnie Snuggles · 16-07-2020 10:20AM

The regulation regard houses not having more than 10 visitors at a time could be more to do with what is about to happen with communions and confirmations about to go ahead.

Multipass · 16-07-2020 10:21AM

JDD wrote: »

I'm sure this has been asked already but...

So we were down to five or six new cases a day after the strict lockdown. And now, with restrictions lifting, the number of new cases every day is rising, leading to the R number increasing to above 1.

But...wasn't this expected? Surely NPHET didn't expect that the numbers of new cases every day would continue to fall (to what - eventually zero?) while shops, cafes, travel opened back up again?

The point of the full lockdown was to prevent overwhelming our health system, and to give us breathing space to put in test, track and trace processes, and to give it time to change the population's daily behaviour. And that is exactly what it has done. Now, daily cases will increase (and of course that means the R rate is over 1), but not to a level that overwhelms the health system because we are keeping 2m apart, wearing masks, not using public transport so much, not working in air conned offices so much, not going out to packed pubs,clubs, and concerts. And we have a better test, track and trace system (though it could be still improved).

I expect that the R rate will hover around 1.5 over the next week or two, before falling back down to just over 1, and we may end up with a constant level of 100-200 new cases a day. The percentage of deaths will not be the same as April/May, as a) we have a better system in the nursing homes and b) as painful as it is, a lot of the most vulnerable have died from it already, or have recovered with - hopefully - antibodies.

It's not ideal to have 100-200 cases a day, but without closing our airports and going back to complete lockdown, we're not going to eradicate covid. So I think it is just something we have to accept.

And again, surely none of this is a surprise. Isn't an increase in cases and the R rate going over 1 exactly what they were planning for when reopening the economy?

There is no plan, our government is in a social media driven panic.

Boggles · 16-07-2020 10:21AM

Jesus Christ you'd swear there wasn't a drop of the black stuff to be had in the country.

The majority of pubs are open in my area, I could skull pints all weekend if I wanted to.

stephenjmcd · 16-07-2020 10:28AM

Drumpot wrote: »

Is there a second wave???

The problem as I see it is communication. Why are they doing this and not addressing the foreign travel situation? I don’t think you open pubs just because you aren’t changing your stance on travel but you need to explain your decisions if you want the population to follow.

This isn’t rocket science and it’s one of the few things of the virus we should be able to manage.

Would agree regarding communication, its woeful.

We'll toughen our stance on travel in the coming weeks.... in reality they'll put the form online and nothing changes.

It just leaves more questions than answers

political analyst · 16-07-2020 10:29AM

Why has the government still allowed flights from Texas - a Covid hotspot - to land in Ireland?

giveitholly · 16-07-2020 10:32AM

Boggles wrote: »

Jesus Christ you'd swear there wasn't a drop of the black stuff to be had in the country.

The majority of pubs are open in my area, I could skull pints all weekend if I wanted to.

That is your area though,there is plenty of rural areas where there is no pub open for miles,talking to people yesterday evening and this morning and people are fairly pissed off with the government,they have done everything that has been asked of them since early March,they were looking forward to having a few quiet pints with their neighbours and get a bit of social interaction again with the community but that has been taken away from them now.Of course in big towns and cities there is plenty of choice to have a pint.Who is going to drive 40/50km for that privilege. Yet again it seems like two fingers are been given to the rural community

robbiezero · 16-07-2020 10:33AM

Hurrache wrote: »

Ha ha, you just couldn't resist, you literally just done what I said would happen with a magnificent failure to understand the comparison. Why are you even quoting "contemplating closing bars"?

Ha Ha indeed.

Montreal opened bars. Had handful of cases related to bars. Dealing with it.

Why does that not apply to Ireland?

marno21 · 16-07-2020 10:33AM

Does the pubs restriction also apply to residents bars for guests staying overnight ?

joeguevara · 16-07-2020 10:35AM

Shop I normally go in beside office refusing entry to people not wearing a mask, but they will let you in to buy a mask a 4 euro a pop.

Sofa King Great · 16-07-2020 10:36AM

Last week it was announced that breast and bowel cancer screening would not restart until September. This in my opinion is far more outrageous than the pubs not opening until 10th August

hmmm · 16-07-2020 10:36AM

JDD wrote: »

And again, surely none of this is a surprise. Isn't an increase in cases and the R rate going over 1 exactly what they were planning for when reopening the economy?

The plan was to keep the R rate at about 1 or less. Once it goes over 1 we are in trouble. I know you think cases will go up and then come down, but that's just your opinion. There's a very fine balance here, and no-one really knows where the balance is.

Israel is a good example of a modern country which did well to stop the initial wave, opened up too quickly and then the virus got away from them - now they are having to consider going back into a lockdown.

Sofa King Great · 16-07-2020 10:38AM

giveitholly wrote: »

That is your area though,there is plenty of rural areas where there is no pub open for miles,talking to people yesterday evening and this morning and people are fairly pissed off with the government,they have done everything that has been asked of them since early March,they were looking forward to having a few quiet pints with their neighbours and get a bit of social interaction again with the community but that has been taken away from them now.Of course in big towns and cities there is plenty of choice to have a pint.Who is going to drive 40/50km for that privilege. Yet again it seems like two fingers are been given to the rural community

There is a trade off to living in rural areas, peace and quiet and cheaper housing being the positive, lack of amenities being the negative. If people want to be close to amenities let them move to the big towns

owlbethere · 16-07-2020 10:39AM

I read about the party that happened in kerry last weekend. Apparently someone tested positive but still went to the party.

There's nothing as a deterrent to stop people from behaving the same way going forward. Pubs opening is going to be a nightmare for more covid19 cases. Like if someone has a cold, which could be the start of a flu or virus, do you really think they will stay at home? Will they fcuk. Instead of a smaller group of people being exposed to virus at a house party, there would be more people exposed in a pub setting.

robbiezero · 16-07-2020 10:39AM

Doctor Jimbob wrote: »

Indeed.

Which makes all the attempts to paint anyone against the pushing back of reopening as alcoholics look ridiculous, doesn't it?

Spot on. I could go 400 yards down the road right now and drink enough pints to float a small ship if I wanted.

I'm thinking more about my old uncle who is a farmer for whom a few pints in the village pub is his only social outlet and was really looking forward to seeing his cronies again or the deep frustration of that pub and multiple others who long to get back to work.

But the narrative that people looking for pubs to open are foaming alcoholics has been peddled here since the start of the crisis.

Boggles · 16-07-2020 10:39AM

giveitholly wrote: »

That is your area though,there is plenty of rural areas where there is no pub open for miles

Nonsense, rural pubs have changed with the times and the majority of them provide at least a bar menu now.

Some of the most successful ones have hired good chefs and people travel for miles from urban areas to drink and dine there.

It's not 1992 anymore FFS.

Hurrache · 16-07-2020 10:40AM

robbiezero wrote: »

Ha Ha indeed.

Montreal opened bars. Had handful of cases related to bars. Dealing with it.

Why does that not apply to Ireland?

And you obviously disregard the row back and re-closure of bars in other places.

Like I said, you guys are so obviously predictable as to how you selectively chose and ignore reality.

giveitholly · 16-07-2020 10:40AM

Sofa King Great wrote: »

There is a trade off to living in rural areas, peace and quiet and cheaper housing being the positive, lack of amenities being the negative. If people want to be close to amenities let them move to the big towns

And what about the amenities that already there,Can they not stay there or do they have to go as well,why are the government trying to get rid of them

Covid19 Part XIX-25,802 in ROI (1,753 deaths) 5,859 in NI (556 deaths) (21/07)Read OP

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