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Covid19 Part XIX-25,802 in ROI (1,753 deaths) 5,859 in NI (556 deaths) (21/07)Read OP

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Comments

  • #4892
    Goldengirl
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 16,121 ✭✭✭✭Goldengirl


    stephenjmcd wrote: »
    2 weeks ago we did just under 4k tests and were finding roughly 10 cases a day. Testing now is nearly at the 10k per day and roughly 20 cases per day. So 10 more cases for two thirds more testing. Positivity rate remains the same. Around 0.2 - 0.3%

    Have to say your statistics and measured approach has calmed me down. Thanks .
    Still annoyed over the American tourists inbound, but not as stressed as I was earlier .
    It is good to know that the positivity rate is just 0.3% , but it was 0.2% .
    Just concerned if these cases translate into rising numbers in hospital in the next week .


  • #4893
    gmisk
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 34,586 ✭✭✭✭gmisk


    What Username Guidelines wrote: »
    I’ve been following the original tweeter (@fatemperor) for a bit as I’m trying to get as many perspectives as possible. I change my mind on how I feel about this whole thing every day tbh.

    He is retweeting analysis and his own analysis that seems at least interesting, general gist is that we’re seeing excess deaths but it’s following Farrs law of epidemics and is almost over, lockdown or no lockdown.

    Most countries have returned to normal levels of deaths by now, Croatia and Israel are seeing resurgence due to locking down early and reopening when large proportion were still susceptible.

    He’s certainly one of the more open posters on that side of the argument, crying out for people to analyse what he’s done and point out where he is wrong, whereas most others I had to stop following as they seemed to have ulterior motives and were just plain abusive to those asking questions.

    He’s done interesting analysis of deaths in the states and Sweden by date of death as opposed to date of report, showing a very similar curve to each other, whether the state had a hard lockdown/soft lockdown/etc.

    Having said that, I’m not sure how much of this is cognitive bias and how proportional my attention is to how much I’d like it to be true.
    He is tweeting things with no actual basis on any facts though....going by that tweet.

    OMG
    - substantial herd immunity gained.

    The story says nothing whatsoever to back up that statement.....


  • #4894
    ShineOn7
    Closed Accounts Posts: 4,550 ✭✭✭ShineOn7


    igCorcaigh wrote: »
    Any thoughts on this reply?

    50% of people not susceptible plus another 30% already exposed = approaching herd immunity in UK?

    https://twitter.com/CatrionaColllns/status/1281733145851822080?s=19


    What in the name of God is that?

    There's zero sources given by the Tweeter


  • #4895
    expectationlost
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 12,539 ✭✭✭✭expectationlost


    https://twitter.com/avelineo/status/1282057355446964225


  • #4896
    Goldengirl
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 16,121 ✭✭✭✭Goldengirl


    [Deleted User] wrote: »
    Many predicted that the first weekend would be crazy and then that it would all go quiet.

    Seriously?
    If they had gotten away with it, without any negative press it'd be jammers every night of the week!
    That's the thing , any non compliance has to be stopped straight away .


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  • #4897
    fritzelly
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 18,163 ✭✭✭✭fritzelly


    fritzelly wrote: »
    Sounds like that wacky Irish professor - whats her name?

    Anyway a random tweet with nothing backing it up

    Ahh Dolores - proof if anything that a degree and title doesn't mean you know what you are talking about!

    https://www.irishtimes.com/news/ireland/irish-news/ucd-professor-asked-to-resign-from-eu-committee-over-covid-19-claims-1.4277698


  • #4898
    LawBoy2018
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,162 ✭✭✭LawBoy2018


    expectationlost wrote: »
    https://twitter.com/avelineo/status/1282057355446964225

    The Gov have lost the young people, unfortunately.


  • #4899
    What Username Guidelines
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,139 ✭✭✭What Username Guidelines


    gmisk wrote: »
    He is tweeting things with no actual basis on any facts though....going by that tweet.

    OMG
    - substantial herd immunity gained.

    The story says nothing whatsoever to back up that statement.....

    Yep, correct. He seems to be incredibly stressed more recently by what he considers insanity and and overreaction by most governments. Not sure he’s saying herd immunity is what the RTÉ story is saying, more that’s what he believes and cannot fathom why we’re mandating masks now.

    Not saying I agree or disagree, I’m not an expert, and I’ve no hard stance on this pandemic (I.e. it’ll be grand vs second wave incoming) just interested in reading analysis from all areas of the spectrum, maybe just not the “its a democratic hoax” deep end of it :)


  • #4900
    expectationlost
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 12,539 ✭✭✭✭expectationlost


    LawBoy2018 wrote: »
    The Gov have lost the young people, unfortunately.
    lots of older people standing up further back there


  • #4901
    stephenjmcd
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 15,458 ✭✭✭✭stephenjmcd


    Goldengirl wrote: »
    Have to say your statistics and measured approach has calmed me down. Thanks .
    Still annoyed over the American tourists inbound, but not as stressed as I was earlier .
    It is good to know that the positivity rate is just 0.3% , but it was 0.2% .
    Just concerned if these cases translate into rising numbers in hospital in the next week .

    I just like to do research into things I read. In this case to see how many extra tests lead to extra cases. We're roughly 6k more tests than 2 weeks ago and roughly 10 more cases per day with the postivity rate around 0.2 - 0.3.

    But yeah have to keep an eye on hosptial numbers


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  • #4902
    igCorcaigh
    Moderators, Recreation & Hobbies Moderators Posts: 12,522 Mod ✭✭✭✭igCorcaigh


    gmisk wrote: »
    He is tweeting things with no actual basis on any facts though....going by that tweet.

    OMG
    - substantial herd immunity gained.

    The story says nothing whatsoever to back up that statement.....

    Yeah, I've been following ivor Cummins on twitter for his low carb stuff (out of curiosity). He has a contrarian side when it comes to scientific orthodoxy so maybe not too surprising.


  • #4903
    Goldengirl
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 16,121 ✭✭✭✭Goldengirl


    Eod100 wrote: »
    Yeah Dame Tavern, Mercantile and Stag's Head all look closed there. Now I'm curious were any of them even in open last weekend!

    Stag's Head was never open. Said they couldn't and wouldn't .Waiting for the pub opening 20th July.


  • #4904
    timmy_mallet
    Closed Accounts Posts: 1,165 ✭✭✭timmy_mallet


    Polar101 wrote: »
    Well, my question would be: why would getting a cold/other viruses give immunity from this (novel) coronavirus? Wouldn't that be a bit like being immune to lung cancer if you've had breast cancer - which doesn't happen as far as I'm aware.

    There is plenty of evidence vaccines for one virus creates an immune response to help protect you against others. Having and recovering from other cold and viruses which are very similar also does the same, so the theory is more than plausible. While your analogy is ridiculous.


  • #4905
    JP Liz V1
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 91,376 ✭✭✭✭JP Liz V1


    https://www.irishexaminer.com/breakingnews/ireland/cluster-of-covid-19-cases-identified-after-over-30-young-people-travelled-to-kerry-to-socialise-1010604.html
    Over 30 people travelled from “different parts of the country” to Killarney and stayed a number of days together
    https://forumofgames.com/




  • #4906
    Eod100
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 12,232 ✭✭✭✭Eod100


    LawBoy2018 wrote: »
    The Gov have lost the young people, unfortunately.

    At least they're outside. I know Gardai probably turn a blind eye to drinking there usually unless there's hassle but you'd think they'd swing by and move people on. Or is it pointless?


  • #4907
    Zonda999
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,536 ✭✭✭Zonda999


    expectationlost wrote: »
    https://twitter.com/avelineo/status/1282057355446964225

    Not great admittedly but at least they are outside than in some house party


  • #4908
    What Username Guidelines
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,139 ✭✭✭What Username Guidelines


    Hse report out for the day, both numbers in general beds and icu have increased by 1, to 12 and 10.

    Still 7 ventilated and no deaths in last 24 hrs in ICU. One case confirmed in the mater last 24 hrs.


  • #4909
    stephenjmcd
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 15,458 ✭✭✭✭stephenjmcd


    Eod100 wrote: »
    At least they're outside. I know Gardai probably turn a blind eye to drinking there usually unless there's hassle but you'd think they'd swing by and move people on. Or is it pointless?

    They weren't bothered at Dame Lane until the videos were doing the rounds, sure they'd been through earlier and getting into pictures with people.


  • #4910
    Goldengirl
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 16,121 ✭✭✭✭Goldengirl


    fritzelly wrote: »
    Sounds like that wacky Irish professor - whats her name?

    Anyway a random tweet with nothing backing it up

    Irish freedom party, lol .
    No agenda there?


  • #4911
    Ineedaname
    Closed Accounts Posts: 369 ✭✭Ineedaname


    Polar101 wrote: »
    Well, my question would be: why would getting a cold/other viruses give immunity from this (novel) coronavirus? Wouldn't that be a bit like being immune to lung cancer if you've had breast cancer - which doesn't happen as far as I'm aware.

    No because cancer and a virus are as different as chalk and cheese. They affect your body in completely different ways.

    Some of the viruses that can cause a cold also belong to the coronavirus family. The theory is due to your immune systems prior exposure to them and their similarity to Covid they may offer some protection.

    As for whether there's any merit to it. There hasn't been any concrete evidence yet so until there is I'd take it with a grain of salt.


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  • #4912
    igCorcaigh
    Moderators, Recreation & Hobbies Moderators Posts: 12,522 Mod ✭✭✭✭igCorcaigh


    timmy_mallet wrote: »
    There is plenty of evidence vaccines for one virus creates an immune response to help protect you against others. Having and recovering from other cold and viruses which are very similar also does the same, so the theory is more than plausible. While your analogy is ridiculous.

    I guess it might be reasonable to suggest that shared sequences between different coronaviruses might confer some degree of immunity to covid-19 virus... I get the logic, just don't know how plausible it is.

    Prof M or Martina, any views?


  • #4913
    LawBoy2018
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,162 ✭✭✭LawBoy2018


    Eod100 wrote: »
    At least they're outside. I know Gardai probably turn a blind eye to drinking there usually unless there's hassle but you'd think they'd swing by and move people on. Or is it pointless?

    100%! We all need to have a bit of fun while we can or I genuinely don't know how we'll face the impending long winter of cold/dark nights. Personally, I'm finding it all a bit overwhelming atm.


  • #4914
    Eod100
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 12,232 ✭✭✭✭Eod100


    stephenjmcd wrote: »
    They weren't bothered at Dame Lane until the videos were doing the rounds, sure they'd been through earlier and getting into pictures with people.

    Well sure there's the photo for them.. ha Seems to be a fairly reactive approach instead of proactive. Would think a bit of common sense and initiative would get Gardai to do it before it does round of social media


  • #4915
    What Username Guidelines
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,139 ✭✭✭What Username Guidelines


    Trump visited a medical centre today and wore a mask. Not sure if it’ll do much, but a small gesture like this may in fact have a big impact to at least some of his followers

    https://twitter.com/ap/status/1282068566737670144?s=21


  • #4916
    Eod100
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 12,232 ✭✭✭✭Eod100


    LawBoy2018 wrote: »
    100%! We all need to have a bit of fun while we can or I genuinely don't know how we'll face the impending long winter of cold/dark nights. Personally, I'm finding it all a bit overwhelming atm.

    No I get you. I personally wouldn't be comfortable to be there and it is frustrating that it happens. I was very annoyed myself at Dame Lane last week and that is nearly worse. Hopefully cases will be manageable over next few weeks. Sustaining these measures was always going to be difficult but thought people would have a bit more staying power


  • #4917
    fritzelly
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 18,163 ✭✭✭✭fritzelly


    What Username Guidelines wrote: »
    Trump visited a medical centre today and wore a mask. Not sure if it’ll do much, but a small gesture like this may in fact have a big impact to at least some of his followers

    https://twitter.com/ap/status/1282068566737670144?s=21

    Probably told he wont get in if he doesn't wear one


  • #4918
    ACitizenErased
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 11,766 ✭✭✭✭ACitizenErased


    What Username Guidelines wrote: »
    Trump visited a medical centre today and wore a mask. Not sure if it’ll do much, but a small gesture like this may in fact have a big impact to at least some of his followers

    https://twitter.com/ap/status/1282068566737670144?s=21
    That's actually quite a big gesture


  • #4919
    Eod100
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 12,232 ✭✭✭✭Eod100


    What Username Guidelines wrote: »
    Trump visited a medical centre today and wore a mask. Not sure if it’ll do much, but a small gesture like this may in fact have a big impact to at least some of his followers

    https://twitter.com/ap/status/1282068566737670144?s=21

    Could do with one permanently tbh. Surprised he hasn't sold his supporters one MAGA ones made in China


  • #4920
    What Username Guidelines
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,139 ✭✭✭What Username Guidelines


    Ineedaname wrote: »
    No because cancer and a virus are as different as chalk and cheese. They affect your body in completely different ways.

    Some of the viruses that can cause a cold also belong to the coronavirus family. The theory is due to your immune systems prior exposure to them and their similarity to Covid they may offer some protection.

    As for whether there's any merit to it. There hasn't been any concrete evidence yet so until there is I'd take it with a grain of salt.

    Yeah that’s the general theory, and even if it doesn’t confer immunity to this strain of it, coronaviruses in their nature come in varying waves with seasonal influence so that should impact it. Like most other things (long term effects, length of immunity, etc) it’s all a waiting game and observing what happens. It’s why Sweden is an interesting example, of course they’ve suffered many deaths compared to neighbours so I’m not saying it was the correct approach, but nothing close to the levels predicted have happened there.


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  • #4921
    What Username Guidelines
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,139 ✭✭✭What Username Guidelines


    fritzelly wrote: »
    Probably told he wont get in if he doesn't wear one

    He visited a mask factory a few months ago and refused to wear one, even picking up finished masks and ended up contaminating sterile stock.


This discussion has been closed.
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