Covid19 Part XIX-25,802 in ROI (1,753 deaths) 5,859 in NI (556 deaths) (21/07)Read OP

ACitizenErased · 09-07-2020 10:33PM

Looks like the Brits have been cooking the testing books.
https://news.sky.com/story/coronavirus-the-inside-story-of-how-uks-chaotic-testing-regime-broke-all-the-rules-12022566

ShineOn7 · 09-07-2020 10:34PM

giveitholly wrote: »

Its been a while since this thread has been as busy as it has been this evening

I've had far too much coffee today

Spanish Eyes · 09-07-2020 10:36PM

bb1234567 wrote: »

Go outside The fear is almost exclusively online

That might be why we have a little spike now. It all started with one case remember.

igCorcaigh · 09-07-2020 10:38PM

LiquidZeb wrote: »

It's more about t cells than antibodies. It's actually a good thing that antibodies fade as that means their job is done. The analogy I've seen is antibodies are the firemen putting the fire out and tcells are the fire department on call if they're needed.

So are these T cells the memory cells? I've so much brushing up to do on my immunology. Fascinating subject.

Away With The Fairies · 09-07-2020 10:40PM

ShineOn7 wrote: »

Fair play to them. I'd love to be there right now actually. New Zealand are going for this approach too (I'm not comparing us to them)

What other countries are going for eradication?

Malaysia also springs to mind as a country determined to completely stamp it out

(For the love of God, please no one mention China ;-)

We should also be going for eradication. Why are we inviting infection in?

fritzelly · 09-07-2020 10:41PM

ACitizenErased wrote: »

Irish Examiner have it now about the West Cork GAA teams. This could be a turning point for sports going ahead.
https://www.irishexaminer.com/breakingnews/sport/gaa/several-west-cork-gaa-clubs-stood-down-pending-covid-contact-assessment-1010306.html

Just goes to show even tho we are detecting tiny amounts from people who go for a test it is still out there in people who don't even know they have it

Being asymptomatic is the biggest problem with this virus

fritzelly · 09-07-2020 10:42PM

ACitizenErased wrote: »

In my opinion RTE has been an absolute disgrace during this whole thing. Will never ever trust their journalism ever again.

RTE have a specialist trawling Twitter feeds for the news (you may laugh but...)

ACitizenErased · 09-07-2020 10:43PM

Away With The Fairies wrote: »

We should also be going for eradication. Why are we inviting infection in?

It is not even remotely possible to eradicate the virus as a member of the EU

ixoy · 09-07-2020 10:43PM

Away With The Fairies wrote: »

We should also be going for eradication. Why are we inviting infection in?

Made a bit more difficult when we're attached to another country.

Plumbthedepths · 09-07-2020 10:50PM

is_that_so wrote: »

Indeed, especially being told they need to grow up!

Yet some of the lowest case numbers in Europe . True we really need to grow up.

timmy_mallet · 09-07-2020 10:54PM

fritzelly wrote: »

Just goes to show even tho we are detecting tiny amounts from people who go for a test it is still out there in people who don't even know they have it

Being asymptomatic is the biggest problem with this virus

I think it might be the dying, really

SeaBreezes · 09-07-2020 10:58PM

fritzelly wrote: »

Just goes to show even tho we are detecting tiny amounts from people who go for a test it is still out there in people who don't even know they have it

Being asymptomatic is the biggest problem with this virus

And if I DO get it (and hopefully not) I'd be hoping I'm an asymptomatic..

ShineOn7 · 09-07-2020 11:18PM

77% of cases reported today are under 25 years of age

So community transmission has increased then?

Lyle · 09-07-2020 11:22PM

ShineOn7 wrote: »

77% of cases reported today are under 25 years of age

So community transmission has increased then?

At the brief they said the vast majority were linked in clusters, with some of the travel cases also linked to (or starting?) clusters. Community transmission still representing a very low percentage of cases they're catching.

Utopia Parkway · 09-07-2020 11:26PM

Away With The Fairies wrote: »

We should also be going for eradication. Why are we inviting infection in?

Jack Lambert was on the Tonight Show last night and said he didn’t think elimination of the virus was possible in Ireland. Granted others would disagree with him. Either way it would be extremely difficult.

ShineOn7 · 09-07-2020 11:28PM

Gov.ie/Reddit summary from a member there called Laura who transcribes the highlights of the briefings

New Cases: 23
Denotified Cases: N/A
Total Cases: 25,565
New Deaths: 6
Denotified: 1
Total Deaths: 1,743

As of Tuesday 7th July

Total cases: 25,543
Hospitalised: 3,328
Currently hospitalised: 13
ICU: 436
Current ICU: 9
Healthcare workers: 8,265
Clusters: 1,994
Cases associated with clusters: 13,019

In last 14 days

Total cases notified: 170
Occurred in last 14 days: 140
Average age: 34
Underlying conditions: 29%
Healthcare workers: 45%
Cases in Dublin: 55
Cases in Kildare: 23
Cases in Sligo: 16
Other counties 46

Residential Settings (Includes nursing homes)

Clusters: 462
Total Cases: 7411
Total Deaths: 1104

Nursing Homes

Clusters: 261
Total Cases: 5832
Total Deaths: 983

Modelling & Statistics

Average of 1 death per day
Average of 10 in ICU day on day
Over 6000 tests done - over 50% increase
Small increase in number of positive cases
14 day cumulative incidence is a very good indicator of active infection in community - this has risen.
As of today about 4 per 100,000. This is a little higher this week than the last 2 weeks
To a certain extent this is expected as people move freely

Confirmed case count per day, going back 6 weeks from today - broadly speaking very low levels of disease, nothing to be concerned of.
Especially three weeks ago where 61 cases were confirmed total.
Last two weeks we have seen little bit more incidence cases

Increase of cases means an increase in reproductive number - this is unreliable when you have low numbers.
We have one (artifically high) of 2.49 - this is very deliberately comparing three weeks ago against this week
Imperial model gives an estimate of 0.8 - this is based on the number of deaths, and fortunately we haven't seen a large increase
Best estimate is a statistical method combining a number of factors. This gives our reproductive number of at or just above 1

Cases arising in different settings - last week very low in LTRC.
3 weeks ago there were no outbreaks, however this is on the rise (including travel related)
Closely monitoring age distribution of cases, excluding those in healthcare and LTRC.
Seeing more cases in younger people - this is being very carefully monitored, along with the nature of transmission

60% of cases are close contact with confirmed cases
Others are community, others healthcare
15-20% travel related

10000maniacs · 09-07-2020 11:33PM

Expect a huge second wave next month here in Ireland courtesy of holidaymakers returning from Spain, Portugal and France et al.

ixoy · 09-07-2020 11:37PM

10000maniacs wrote: »

Expect a huge second wave next month here in Ireland courtesy of holidaymakers returning from Spain, Portugal and France et al.

Are there huge waves in France, Germany, etc from people returning from holidays to Spain, Portugal, etc? Irish people aren't the only ones to to go to Spain.

marno21 · 09-07-2020 11:40PM

There seems to be a good few teachers returning from abroad at the minute for the summer especially from the Gulf states. May explain some of the under 25s.

House parties may explain some of the transmission but you’d expect more cases if that were the case.

Plumbthedepths · 09-07-2020 11:40PM

10000maniacs wrote: »

Expect a huge second wave next month here in Ireland courtesy of holidaymakers returning from Spain, Portugal and France et al.

Have you the lotto numbers aswell?

Strazdas · 09-07-2020 11:41PM

Out of interest, what is the current situation with flights from the US? I know that Trump slapped a travel ban on the EU in late Feb, early March. Can US tourists visit Ireland or other EU states at the moment?

fritzelly · 09-07-2020 11:42PM

Strazdas wrote: »

Out of interest, what is the current situation with flights from the US? I know that Trump slapped a travel ban on the EU in late Feb, early March. Can US tourists visit Ireland or other EU states at the moment?

Cannot go to Schengen area - but Ireland is wide open, rolling out the red carpet for them at the moment

Strazdas · 09-07-2020 11:45PM

Utopia Parkway wrote: »

Jack Lambert was on the Tonight Show last night and said he didn’t think elimination of the virus was possible in Ireland. Granted others would disagree with him. Either way it would be extremely difficult.

Lambert's point was that flights to places like Iceland, Denmark and Norway would be of no consequence as there is virtually no Covid-19 there.....it would be like travelling to Mayo or Donegal.

The US or Brazil would clearly be a completely different story.

Strazdas · 09-07-2020 11:47PM

fritzelly wrote: »

Cannot go to Shenzhen area - but Ireland is wide open, rolling out the red carpet for them at the moment

But the UK and Ireland were added to the Schengen Area ban?

SeaBreezes · 09-07-2020 11:49PM

Strazdas wrote: »

But the UK and Ireland were added to the Schengen Area ban?

Really? Ireland banned from europe?

fritzelly · 09-07-2020 11:51PM

Strazdas wrote: »

But the UK and Ireland were added to the Schengen Area ban?

Nope - unless its changed very recently

Strumms · 09-07-2020 11:51PM

Away With The Fairies wrote: »

We should also be going for eradication. Why are we inviting infection in?

Because the business sector are ‘demanding’ a return to open everything... borders, pubs, shops.... religious organizations are pressuring for a return to services etc...

Basically the sections of society who value making money over health, wellbeing and lives of the citizens of this country, you and me, are demanding that we open everything, inviting in everyone with cash to be spent.... business owners won’t care they are sitting back in nice five and six bedroom mansions... nowhere near said businesses and the risks they are demanding off of the likes of you and me so they get richer.

Spanish Eyes · 09-07-2020 11:51PM

I think I'll just get back in my cave with my pile of toilet rolls now. It's not sounding good :eek:

timsey tiger · 09-07-2020 11:51PM

Lyle wrote: »

At the brief they said the vast majority were linked in clusters, with some of the travel cases also linked to (or starting?) clusters. Community transmission still representing a very low percentage of cases they're catching.

With community transmission we are unlikely to turn up many under 25 year olds.

In community transmission scenario the case has to be symptomatic enough to prompt them to go and get a test. Very few under 25s will suffer a sever enough reaction to the virus to prompt this.

Under 25s will most likely turn up as part of a cluster as they will get tested if they are a known contact of a case.

This effect is also seen at older age groups to a diminishing effect, it partially explains why such large numbers of cases arise in workplaces, like meat factories.

fritzelly · 09-07-2020 11:52PM

Spanish Eyes wrote: »

I think I'll just get back in my cave with my pile of toilet rolls now. It's not sounding good :eek:

Bears have the right idea

Covid19 Part XIX-25,802 in ROI (1,753 deaths) 5,859 in NI (556 deaths) (21/07)Read OP

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