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Property Market 2020

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    #10172
    c.p.w.g.w
    Registered Users Posts: 4,994 ✭✭✭c.p.w.g.w


    The Belly wrote: »
    It takes 42 months to repossess a property here and 24 in Finland our average mortgage interest rate is 2.99% theirs is .98%.

    I cant see the justification in a 2% difference due to an 18month differnce in the time to reposses a house

    My buddy works for a bank, specifically dealing with defaulting mortgages...his experience is that a judge would take a house off a family with children, some of those houses will take 10-15 years to reclaim...thats why there is such a difference


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    #10173
    ebayissues
    Registered Users Posts: 448 ✭✭ebayissues


    cnocbui wrote: »
    As I said, Ireland is basically a socialist country. Those with mortgages are slugged to pay for the housing security of those who default.


    This partly explains the rush to complete purchases by those on COVID payment.



    They fully know the little or no repurcussions of buying a property and not paying a mortgage.


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    #10174
    Villa05
    Registered Users Posts: 4,576 ✭✭✭Villa05


    Hubertj wrote:
    "APPEARS" says a lot about SF policy. It looks and sounds great on paper. What will it look like in practice.


    It would benefit the debate if you discussed the points raised rather than knocking the parties that are supportive of those points

    Can you think of a reason why the current government could not pursue a similar policy?


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    #10175
    Hubertj
    Registered Users Posts: 2,000 ✭✭✭Hubertj


    Villa05 wrote: »
    It would benefit the debate if you discussed the points raised rather than knocking the parties that are supportive of those points

    Can you think of a reason why the current government could not pursue a similar policy?

    I’ll repeat myself again. I would like to see the business case for both, especially the 750k.

    I would also like to see evidence of where the Irish state has delivered large scale construction projections within budget, or at least within contingency (whatever that % is).

    It’s very easy to write a few numbers on a piece of paper.

    I’m not disagreeing with the policy, whoever tries to implement it, but I have no confidence in the cost projections.


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    #10176
    The Belly
    Registered Users Posts: 572 ✭✭✭The Belly


    c.p.w.g.w wrote: »
    My buddy works for a bank, specifically dealing with defaulting mortgages...his experience is that a judge would take a house off a family with children, some of those houses will take 10-15 years to reclaim...thats why there is such a difference

    Well the 42 months are the stats so id go with them.


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    #10177
    The Belly
    Registered Users Posts: 572 ✭✭✭The Belly


    Hubertj wrote: »
    I’ll repeat myself again. I would like to see the business case for both, especially the 750k.

    I would also like to see evidence of where the Irish state has delivered large scale construction projections within budget, or at least within contingency (whatever that % is).

    It’s very easy to write a few numbers on a piece of paper.

    I’m not disagreeing with the policy, whoever tries to implement it, but I have no confidence in the cost projections.

    The state are well able to deliver the large scale devlopments needed.

    Provide the land and planning.

    Tender each development out from small to very large to include penalty clauses in order to avoid missed targets or over runs.

    Exclude any tenders that do not have a strong track record of delivering in time and on budget.

    The reason we have nothing to compare it with is its policy not to provide social housing rather farm it out to small housing assocations like cluid etc so it looks like something is being done.


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    #10178
    ELM327
    Registered Users Posts: 21,796 ✭✭✭✭ELM327


    The Belly wrote: »
    It takes 42 months to repossess a property here and 24 in Finland our average mortgage interest rate is 2.99% theirs is .98%.

    I cant see the justification in a 2% difference due to an 18month differnce in the time to reposses a house
    The Belly wrote: »
    Well the 42 months are the stats so id go with them.


    We don't have the same volume, so you can't compare stats. It's not apples with apples.


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    #10179
    19233974
    Registered Users Posts: 120 ✭✭19233974


    The Belly wrote: »
    The state are well able to deliver the large scale devlopments needed.

    Provide the land and planning.

    Tender each development out from small to very large to include penalty clauses in order to avoid missed targets or over runs.

    Exclude any tenders that do not have a strong track record of delivering in time and on budget.

    The reason we have nothing to compare it with is its policy not to provide social housing rather farm it out to small housing assocations like cluid etc so it looks like something is being done.


    Exactly this, once planning and land is provided for its about as straight forward as possible. The problem is with all previous projects they have been rushed through and awarded to lowest bidder, and utilising the wrong form of contract.


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    #10180
    hometruths
    Registered Users, Subscribers Posts: 5,847 ✭✭✭hometruths


    The Belly wrote: »
    Well the 42 months are the stats so id go with them.

    Where are you getting the 42 month figure from?

    Plenty of people in Ireland living in their houses who haven’t paid their mortgage in 10 years never mind 42 months.

    Just wouldn’t happen in any other country.


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    #10181
    neutral guy
    Closed Accounts Posts: 402 ✭✭neutral guy


    The difference between 2008 recession and today is that today every single person are more or less hit ! In 2008 the planes was flying,the taxi drivers was driving,the hotels was working,the shops was selling,the some companies was making business.Today planes not flying,the taxi drivers are seating at home,the hotels are closed,the shops are closing and every single company has problems with business.


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    #10182
    The Belly
    Registered Users Posts: 572 ✭✭✭The Belly


    schmittel wrote: »
    Where are you getting the 42 month figure from?

    Plenty of people in Ireland living in their houses who haven’t paid their mortgage in 10 years never mind 42 months.

    Just wouldn’t happen in any other country.

    Maybe but thats the average.

    Banking & Payments Federation Ireland (BPFI)


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    #10183
    0gac3yjefb5sv7
    Closed Accounts Posts: 3,948 ✭✭✭0gac3yjefb5sv7


    No sign of any recession in the property market. Things have stayed as is before pre CoVid.


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    #10184
    hometruths
    Registered Users, Subscribers Posts: 5,847 ✭✭✭hometruths


    The Belly wrote: »
    Maybe but thats the average.

    Banking & Payments Federation Ireland (BPFI)

    The average perhaps, but it is only the average of the houses actually repossessed which is miniscule, and the majority are voluntarily surrendered which presumably speeds up the process.

    At the end of Q1 2020 there were 63437 PDHs in arrears and 16773 BTLs. Of those in Q1 2020 only 64 PDH properties were repossessed and 15 BTLs.

    The average you're quoting is meaningless because the level of repos is so small it is statistically insignificant.

    Which is exactly the point the BFPI makes regularly.

    You cannot compare the repossession statistics of Ireland vs any other country because essentially we don't have any repossessions.

    A far better relative measure is the level of mortgages in default:
    In terms of loan book risk profile, according to a 2016 report issued by Davy Stockbrokers Finland’s defaulted stock to total stock was 1.2% (in Ireland by comparison it was 18.1%)

    Does the fact that we have about 15 times the rate of mortgage defaults help you understand why our rates our 2% more expensive?

    To be honest we're lucky it is only 2%.


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    #10185
    fliball123
    Registered Users Posts: 7,445 ✭✭✭fliball123


    The Belly wrote: »
    Well the 42 months are the stats so id go with them.

    Its no where near 42 months if its a family home and the family have kids. You might want to check the difference for buy to lets . but family homes are very hard to take away


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    #10186
    guyfawkes5
    Registered Users Posts: 291 ✭✭guyfawkes5


    This sort of "that doesn't sound right to me... you must be wrong!" pattern has happened in other threads.

    I guess when you're presented with statistics contrary to your view formed from anecdotes or media reports, you either consider changing your mind or changing the statistics. Most people seem to plump for one over the other.


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    #10187
    The Belly
    Registered Users Posts: 572 ✭✭✭The Belly


    schmittel wrote: »
    The average perhaps, but it is only the average of the houses actually repossessed which is miniscule, and the majority are voluntarily surrendered which presumably speeds up the process.

    At the end of Q1 2020 there were 63437 PDHs in arrears and 16773 BTLs. Of those in Q1 2020 only 64 PDH properties were repossessed and 15 BTLs.

    The average you're quoting is meaningless because the level of repos is so small it is statistically insignificant.

    Which is exactly the point the BFPI makes regularly.

    You cannot compare the repossession statistics of Ireland vs any other country because essentially we don't have any repossessions.

    A far better relative measure is the level of mortgages in default:



    Does the fact that we have about 15 times the rate of mortgage defaults help you understand why our rates our 2% more expensive?

    To be honest we're lucky it is only 2%.

    I cant find 2019 or 2020 figures only individual banks Boi is under 5% as of 2019.

    AIB Group plc (“AIB”) has agreed to sell a non-performing loan portfolio to Everyday Finance DAC ("Everyday")as part of a consortium arrangement with Everyday and affiliates ofCerberus Capital Management. This isanother important step in our non-performing exposure (NPE) deleveraging strategy and we remain on trackto reach c. 5% by end 2019.

    Since 2016 as quoted the NPL have fallen and are not 15 times that of Finlands anymore.

    2018 figures

    Ireland Non Performing Loans Ratio. Ireland's Non Performing Loans Ratio stood at 5.7 % in Dec 2018, compared with the ratio of 11.5 % in the previous year.

    Finlands 1.7% according to the EBF.

    Italy figures are worse then ours and yet their mortgage rate is still far less then ours.

    Italy's Non Performing Loans Ratio stood at 6.9 % in Mar 2020 a reduction from 7.2 % in the previous quarter. Italy'supdated quarterly, available from Jun its average mortgage rate is 1.75% as of March 2020.


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    #10188
    The_Brood
    Closed Accounts Posts: 838 ✭✭✭The_Brood


    Houses in Tallaght going for 40-50k above the asking price, have been outbid on several occasions now. Other areas too. Don't know what to do anymore. It seems demand is at a breaking point in Dublin regardless of any virus, while supply at an all time low.


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    #10189
    combat14
    Registered Users Posts: 2,182 ✭✭✭combat14


    The_Brood wrote: »
    Houses in Tallaght going for 40-50k above the asking price, have been outbid on several occasions now. Other areas too. Don't know what to do anymore. It seems demand is at a breaking point in Dublin regardless of any virus, while supply at an all time low.

    gonna be a world of pain so if ppl paying that much money for their houses - hope the bank are really stress testing these mortgages


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    #10190
    Graham
    Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 17,642 Mod ✭✭✭✭Graham


    The Belly wrote: »
    I cant find 2019 or 2020 figures only individual banks Boi is under 5% as of 2019.

    AIB Group plc (“AIB”) has agreed to sell a non-performing loan portfolio to Everyday Finance DAC ("Everyday")as part of a consortium arrangement with Everyday and affiliates ofCerberus Capital Management. This isanother important step in our non-performing exposure (NPE) deleveraging strategy and we remain on trackto reach c. 5% by end 2019.

    It's as if the banks have to sell the NPLs to recoup the losses and reduce their exposure.

    Something that would be facilitated by reposession in most markets.


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    #10191
    hometruths
    Registered Users, Subscribers Posts: 5,847 ✭✭✭hometruths


    The Belly wrote: »
    I cant find 2019 or 2020 figures only individual banks Boi is under 5% as of 2019.

    AIB Group plc (“AIB”) has agreed to sell a non-performing loan portfolio to Everyday Finance DAC ("Everyday")as part of a consortium arrangement with Everyday and affiliates ofCerberus Capital Management. This isanother important step in our non-performing exposure (NPE) deleveraging strategy and we remain on trackto reach c. 5% by end 2019.

    Since 2016 as quoted the NPL have fallen and are not 15 times that of Finlands anymore.

    2018 figures

    Ireland Non Performing Loans Ratio. Ireland's Non Performing Loans Ratio stood at 5.7 % in Dec 2018, compared with the ratio of 11.5 % in the previous year.

    Finlands 1.7% according to the EBF.

    Italy figures are worse then ours and yet their mortgage rate is still far less then ours.

    Italy's Non Performing Loans Ratio stood at 6.9 % in Mar 2020 a reduction from 7.2 % in the previous quarter. Italy'supdated quarterly, available from Jun its average mortgage rate is 1.75% as of March 2020.

    The 2020 stats are hiding in plain sight - mortgage arrears figures from the Central Bank are linked in my post above.

    Currently restructured loans are not included in the arrears figures. But they are clearly loans in default. Including them brings the total over 10%.

    I'd make a similiar point re these loans as Graham does about selling the NPLs to vulture funds.

    Banks are reclassifying loans as restructured performing loans after agreeing arrears capitalization/split mortgage/payment holiday or whatever so the % figures of a key indicator look healthier.

    In any other market these loans would have been called in and properties repossessed long ago.

    A consequence of our unique approach is higher interest rates than in those countries that have the stomach for repossessions.


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    #10192
    Hubertj
    Registered Users Posts: 2,000 ✭✭✭Hubertj


    schmittel wrote: »
    The 2020 stats are hiding in plain sight - mortgage arrears figures from the Central Bank are linked in my post above.

    Currently restructured loans are not included in the arrears figures. But they are clearly loans in default. Including them brings the total over 10%.

    I'd make a similiar point re these loans as Graham does about selling the NPLs to vulture funds.

    Banks are reclassifying loans as restructured performing loans after agreeing arrears capitalization/split mortgage/payment holiday or whatever so the % figures of a key indicator look healthier.

    In any other market these loans would have been called in and properties repossessed long ago.

    A consequence of our unique approach is higher interest rates than in those countries that have the stomach for repossessions.

    Do other countries in the EU not enter into similar arrangements regarding loans in arrears? Or is it pay up or sell up?


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    #10193
    neutral guy
    Closed Accounts Posts: 402 ✭✭neutral guy


    <SNIP>


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    #10194
    hometruths
    Registered Users, Subscribers Posts: 5,847 ✭✭✭hometruths


    Hubertj wrote: »
    Do other countries in the EU not enter into similar arrangements regarding loans in arrears? Or is it pay up or sell up?

    Only other market have knowledge of is UK, and that is pretty much pay up or sell up.

    Of course they'd look at individual cases but I'd be very surprised if any other EU country has over 10% of outstanding mortgage stock "restructured".

    I'm consistently amazed about how many people in Ireland think our approach to this is normal, and assume all countries engage in the sort of forbearance we do.


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    #10195
    Graham
    Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 17,642 Mod ✭✭✭✭Graham


    Mod Note

    Neutral guy, you have already been asked to stop the off topic posts. For clarity that includes anecdotes about your use of public transport.

    Do not reply to this post.


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    #10196
    c.p.w.g.w
    Registered Users Posts: 4,994 ✭✭✭c.p.w.g.w


    The Belly wrote: »
    Well the 42 months are the stats so id go with them.

    I'd imagine those Stats include buy to let mortgages...which are much easier to get a judgment in court


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    #10197
    Bass Reeves
    Registered Users Posts: 18,385 ✭✭✭✭Bass Reeves


    The Belly wrote: »
    I cant find 2019 or 2020 figures only individual banks Boi is under 5% as of 2019.

    AIB Group plc (“AIB”) has agreed to sell a non-performing loan portfolio to Everyday Finance DAC ("Everyday")as part of a consortium arrangement with Everyday and affiliates ofCerberus Capital Management. This isanother important step in our non-performing exposure (NPE) deleveraging strategy and we remain on trackto reach c. 5% by end 2019.

    Since 2016 as quoted the NPL have fallen and are not 15 times that of Finlands anymore.

    2018 figures

    Ireland Non Performing Loans Ratio. Ireland's Non Performing Loans Ratio stood at 5.7 % in Dec 2018, compared with the ratio of 11.5 % in the previous year.

    Finlands 1.7% according to the EBF.

    Italy figures are worse then ours and yet their mortgage rate is still far less then ours.

    Italy's Non Performing Loans Ratio stood at 6.9 % in Mar 2020 a reduction from 7.2 % in the previous quarter. Italy'supdated quarterly, available from Jun its average mortgage rate is 1.75% as of March 2020.


    Lads are here posting that we will see as big or bigger crash comapared to 2008-14. They make the point about Irish interest rates being penal and 2%+ above EU average on the other hand when it point out that this is due to failure to repossess they start on about statistics. The amount of property that has been dumped even over the last 3-5 years is not taken into account. Banks have been selling off holiday home's ( friend bought one in Kerry for 55K last year 3 Bed 800 metres from the beach) houses in small towns( I bought one in 2016 for 50K ). Both properties were 200+ region at purchase in the 2004-2008 period.

    In the last 5 years we have seen 3-4 banks exit from the Irish Market, Rabo, Bank of Scotland are the two I remember off habd as well as Irish Nationwaide and Anglo going bust.
    The_Brood wrote: »
    Houses in Tallaght going for 40-50k above the asking price, have been outbid on several occasions now. Other areas too. Don't know what to do anymore. It seems demand is at a breaking point in Dublin regardless of any virus, while supply at an all time low.

    When people have confidence in buying in Tallaght

    Slava Ukrainii



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    #10198
    IAmTheReign
    Registered Users Posts: 339 ✭✭IAmTheReign


    The Belly wrote: »
    It takes 42 months to repossess a property here and 24 in Finland our average mortgage interest rate is 2.99% theirs is .98%.

    I cant see the justification in a 2% difference due to an 18month differnce in the time to reposses a house

    While it may take 42 months on average for a repossession order to be granted the reality is that for most defaulting mortgages it's so unlikely that one will be granted the banks don't even try. In the last decade there has only been 3 years (2014-2016) where repossession orders granted exceeded 1,000 homes. Where a lender does try to pursue a mortgage defaulter through the courts even then there is only about a 40% chance of success. See here

    When you consider that as of this time last year nearly 63,000 family homes were in arrears, and 45% (approx. 28,000) of those in arrears were more than 2 years behind in their mortgage payments the number of repossessions is shockingly low. That is why mortgage rates are so much higher here.


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    #10199
    IAmTheReign
    Registered Users Posts: 339 ✭✭IAmTheReign


    According to the Examiner the Daft report for June has house prices nationally down 3.3% on last year, with Dublin down 3.8% The Munster area has the biggest drop, falling 4.9%

    https://www.irishexaminer.com/breakingnews/ireland/munster-sees-biggest-fall-in-property-prices-in-past-year-1009876.html


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    #10200
    Billythekid19
    Registered Users Posts: 166 ✭✭Billythekid19


    Rents edge up in June as house prices fall
    Report shows bounce in supply as easing of restrictions reopens property markets


    This looks like the start of the market correction


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    #10201
    Springy Turf
    Closed Accounts Posts: 173 ✭✭Springy Turf


    https://www.daft.ie/report/2020-june-housingmarket-daftreport.pdf


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