Relaxation of Restrictions, Part IV - Read OP for Mod Warnings

growleaves · 01-07-2020 11:17PM

Deleted User wrote: »

Parliamentarians? experts? good one.

A GP’s opinion carries more weight, or even equal, to that of the British Heart foundation or the WHO?

If you think the weight of opinion, as represented by official institutions, is always right then that's fine. I'm happy to listen to other opinions, which I think could have something to add.

The WHO have contradicted themselves a lot in the last few months, showing that their official stance on things can be quite fluid and they are open to reversals.

MickeyLeari · 01-07-2020 11:20PM

[Deleted User] wrote: »

Parliamentarians? experts? good one.

A GP’s opinion carries more weight, or even equal, to that of the British Heart foundation or the WHO?

It was tongue in cheek and I deleted it. But there is a point that there is a need for dissenters in society as they challenge the group think which can emerge.

But now you mention it, why does a GP’s opinion (Tony Holohan) carry more weight than the likes of WHO and ECDC when it comes to using masks. And why does his opinion matter more in terms of introducing safe travel?

Arghus · 01-07-2020 11:21PM

growleaves wrote: »

He did give a straight answer. He said 'None' (meaning he does not see any contradiction). Then he explained his reasoning.

You're assuming that economic patriotism has to take a protectionist form, which is debatable. I see the logic but haven't heard anything like it since the Guaranteed Irish campaign in the 1990s. It seems to have sprung up again merely as a timely debating tactic.

No, that's not what I'm arguing. And you are also trying to muddy the waters by arguing that it's analogous to earlier events from the 90's, that don’t actually have anything to do with what we are talking about here.

When a poster spends literally every day over a period of months framing every single one of their arguments about the terrible damage that is being done to the economy and then turns their nose up at the chance to spend some money at home to help with economic recovery, as innumerable small business owners, etc have asked people to do - well then it is hypocritical for them to have argued that their main concern is the economic well being of the country.

Of course, it isn't hypocritical if they aren't being sincere and are just on a wind up.

setanta1984 · 01-07-2020 11:23PM

hmmm wrote: »

Restrictions are going to be in place until we have a vaccine or a really good treatment as the virus is too dangerous to allow simply spread through the population. Most likely a vaccine which hopefully should become available towards the end of this year/first half of 2021.

The virus hasn't been eliminated, we just have it suppressed. It will very quickly spread again if we don't suppress it. The only way we have of suppressing the virus at present is with physical measures - distancing, handwashing, masks etc. There is no reason to have restrictions if they don't prevent the spread of the virus, so as we know more about how the virus spreads the restrictions will change - e.g. it's not unlikely primary schools may open, but pubs may have to close again in certain areas.

So get used to queuing, wearing masks, and making a small sacrifice on behalf of the community.

I appreciate you answering.

So you honestly think all of the present situation remains until a vaccine?
I think that's completely unrealistic. The world will not accept that indefinitely, and business (or society at large imo) cannot sustain it.

Just presume for a moment that a vaccine never arrives, or takes say 3-4 years? Do you really think we stay in this hamstrung state in perpetuity?

01-07-2020 11:26PM

growleaves wrote: »

If you think the weight of opinion, as represented by official institutions, is always right then that's fine. I'm happy to listen to other opinions, which I think could have something to add.

The WHO have contradicted themselves a lot in the last few months, showing that their official stance on things can be quite fluid and they are open to reversals.

I am glad the WHO are fluid in their guidance. It’s a sign that they are guided by facts not dogma, and as new data is analysed, facts change, or at least knowledge of the facts.

Other opinions are always welcome, however we must also be aware of the bona fides of those proffering their opinions. To often we allow contrarian opinions to be treated with equal merit even when not warranted in the interest of balance. Just like often in the past, dogmatic institutions were given too much merit.

growleaves · 01-07-2020 11:28PM

Arghus wrote: »

No, that's not what I'm arguing. And you are also trying to muddy the waters by arguing that it's analogous to earlier events from the 90's, that don’t actuallyhave anything to do with what we are talking about here.

When a poster spends literally every day over a period of months framing every single one of their arguments about the terrible damage that is being done to the economy and then turns their nose up at the chance to spend some money at home to help with economic recovery, as innumerable small business owners, etc have asked people to do - well then it is hypocritical for them to have argued that their main concern is the economic well being of the country.

Of course, it isn't hypocritical if they aren't being sincere and are just on a wind up.

I'm not trying to muddy the waters. What you're talking about ("spend money at home" via staycations) is a very specific kind of economic action, and I was giving another example of that. It isn't the only way to go about things. I don't think its hypocritical if someone isn't doing this exact thing.

hmmm · 01-07-2020 11:28PM

setanta1984 wrote: »

So you honestly think all of the present situation remains until a vaccine?
I think that's completely unrealistic. The world will not accept that indefinitely, and business (or society at large imo) cannot sustain it.

Just presume for a moment that a vaccine never arrives, or takes say 3-4 years? Do you really think we stay in this hamstrung state in perpetuity?

We have a string of vaccines due to report results later this year and early next year. If they don't work we will have to change strategy, but right now a vaccine is the exit route. Even if a vaccine doesn't work (and I believe it will), there are things we can do in the long term if necessary - e.g. retrofit HEPA filters in air conditioning systems.

No government is going to allow this virus rip through the population and have our hospitals overwhelmed. None. It will be interesting to see what happens in Texas, as their Republican leaders seem to be running the risk that this happens in their state.

01-07-2020 11:34PM

MickeyLeari wrote: »

It was tongue in cheek and I deleted it. But there is a point that there is a need for dissenters in society as they challenge the group think which can emerge.

But now you mention it, why does a GP’s opinion (Tony Holohan) carry more weight than the likes of WHO and ECDC when it comes to using masks. And why does his opinion matter more in terms of introducing safe travel?

You will find I have not argued for continued travel restrictions. I believe the public utterances of Tony Holohan are designed to be on the cautious side to temper complacency during the opening and don’t represent public policy. I think they are also part of a communications plan to put the more fearful Elements more at ease as we open up also - to some members of the public as Tony is so cautious, if he says something is safe it must be.
I believe the quarantine requirements for certain countries will be lifted next week

Arghus · 01-07-2020 11:34PM

growleaves wrote: »

I'm not trying to muddy the waters. What you're talking about ("spend money at home" via staycations) is a very specific kind of economic action, and I was giving another example of that. It isn't the only way to go about things. I don't think its hypocritical if someone isn't doing this exact thing.

Well, I don't agree.

I must ask about Michael Levitt. Has he had anythingto say about the resurgence in case numbers in The United States?

His pronouncements were treated as unimpeachable fact here a few weeks ago as I recall.

greensheep777 · 01-07-2020 11:38PM

hmmm wrote: »

When this is all over we are going to look back at those businesses which took the p**s, and those which acted responsibly. I'll be voting with my feet.

Bold of you to assume that there'll be any businesses left.

DrPhilG · 01-07-2020 11:39PM

[Deleted User] wrote: »

I believe the quarantine requirements for certain countries will be lifted next week

Mind if I ask why you think that?

I have a family member getting married at the end of the month, after pushing it back twice already.

Now she's pushing back the reception etc again until March, but she's going to get married at home with just immediate family.

The issue is that one of her brothers lives in Canada. He wants to come, and had booked for the original date before the world went nuts.

But as things stand he can't, because he would have to isolate for 2 weeks on arrival.

Any news on loosening of the restrictions would be most welcome.

setanta1984 · 01-07-2020 11:41PM

hmmm wrote: »

We have a string of vaccines due to report results later this year and early next year. If they don't work we will have to change strategy, but right now a vaccine is the exit route. Even if a vaccine doesn't work (and I believe it will), there are things we can do in the long term if necessary - e.g. retrofit HEPA filters in air conditioning systems.

No government is going to allow this virus rip through the population and have our hospitals overwhelmed. None. It will be interesting to see what happens in Texas, as their Republican leaders seem to be running the risk that this happens in their state.

At least you acknowledge that you will need to “change strategy“ if the vaccine doesn’t arrive imminently.
Where we differ is I don’t believe as a society we can wait in this state for an indeterminate date in the future. Especially when we are reporting single figure new cases regularly now unlike other countries.

growleaves · 01-07-2020 11:42PM

Arghus wrote: »

Well, I don't agree.

I must ask about Michael Levitt. Has he had to say about the resurgence in case numbers in The United States?

His pronouncements were treated as unimpeachable fact here a few weeks ago as I recall.

No they weren't.

When people were saying 'He isn't an epidemiologist' and should be ignored entirely, I specifically remember telling someone he might have something to contribute and should be listened to because of his background rather than dismissed out of hand.

I don't know what he's had to say lately.

He's what I have to say: we've been hearing about "spikes", "surges" and "record high new cases" in the US for five to six weeks yet deaths (so far) have not exploded (except in Florida?). The CDC have indicated that there may be ten undetected cases for every detected cases. Therefore the claim that it is definitely new cases that are being picked up each time may be wrong, and it should be considered carefully who is saying this (i.e. is it just news media or someone more credible?)

I haven't been following it closely so feel free to contradict everything I've said with enlightening info. Cheers

dundalkfc10 · 01-07-2020 11:42PM

Imagine the Govt had a plan

Goldengirl · 01-07-2020 11:44PM

[Deleted User] wrote: »

You will find I have not argued for continued travel restrictions. I believe the public utterances of Tony Holohan are designed to be on the cautious side to temper complacency during the opening and don’t represent public policy. I think they are also part of a communications plan to put the more fearful Elements more at ease as we open up also - to some members of the public as Tony is so cautious, if he says something is safe it must be.
I believe the quarantine requirements for certain countries will be lifted next week

Yes. I agree with you.

However stopping quarantine from green list countries will have to come with more stringent location info , and test and trace , than has been done before this .

MickeyLeari · 01-07-2020 11:45PM

[Deleted User] wrote: »

You will find I have not argued for continued travel restrictions. I believe the public utterances of Tony Holohan are designed to be on the cautious side to temper complacency during the opening and don’t represent public policy. I think they are also part of a communications plan to put the more fearful Elements more at ease as we open up also - to some members of the public as Tony is so cautious, if he says something is safe it must be.
I believe the quarantine requirements for certain countries will be lifted next week

Fair enough on your views on travel but I think they have met a bit of a mess of it.

He made a balls of it on masks. Rationale at the time was he thought it may give people false comfort and worried about PPE supplies but that mess will be hard to undo. I wore mine on public transport today - not that I am too concerned but I am largely compliant to laws.

I will not be compliant on the travel recommendation but I will wear a mask

hmmm · 01-07-2020 11:45PM

setanta1984 wrote: »

Where we differ is I don’t believe as a society we can wait in this state for an indeterminate date in the future. Especially when we are reporting single figure new cases regularly now unlike other countries.

We are only reporting single digit numbers because we are suppressing the virus with our actions - it's still on the island, and there are still likely to be pockets of it out there we are unaware of. You look at how hard Korea is working to try and suppress clusters popping up in random parts of the country to see our future for the next few months.

There is no scenario short of a miracle where we suspend social distancing, until we get a vaccine. Even with a vaccine, we might not get sufficient immunity if the anti-vaxxers don't take the vaccine.

The worst case here where we don't get a vaccine still doesn't mean we simply stop trying to suppress the virus. We'll have to make changes to society for the long term if that happens as we cannot allow the death and suffering which would result otherwise. I don't believe we will get to that point however, but some very eminent people in the medical community think we might.

MickeyLeari · 01-07-2020 11:48PM

Goldengirl wrote: »

Yes. I agree with you.

However stopping quarantine from green list countries will have to come with more stringent location info , and test and trace , than has been done before this .

Agree.

Plus temp checks on arrival and departure. Random testing could also be introduced. Simple - pick a flight and checks carried out on random passengers.

Goldengirl · 01-07-2020 11:52PM

setanta1984 wrote: »

At least you acknowledge that you will need to “change strategy“ if the vaccine doesn’t arrive imminently.
Where we differ is I don’t believe as a society we can wait in this state for an indeterminate date in the future. Especially when we are reporting single figure new cases regularly now unlike other countries.

If in the future we are still reporting single figure cases then yes a change of strategy will be warranted . Until then SD , hand washing/ sanitisers , masks in contained areas and queues will be the order of the day I think .
Any increase needs to be stopped in its tracks quickly before it ramps up spread.
This means testing, tracing and isolation of clusters , and you must recognise that repeated reinstatement of restrictions, locally , due to virus resurgence may be necessary before we are out of the woods here.

Damiencm · 01-07-2020 11:53PM

Goldengirl wrote:

However stopping quarantine from green list countries will have to come with more stringent location info , and test and trace , than has been done before this .

I have posted what I am about to say on another thread but how exactly will ,an Irish green list of countries work?

Say for instance, and this is just a random example, Germany is on a green list but Belgium is not, the exercise is fairly pointless.

At this stage there is pretty much free movement of people within countries on mainland Europe. If the above scenario arose could a Belgian not just simply cross the border to Germany and get on a flight to Ireland?

Could a person residing in Spain not simply come to Ireland via Portugal?

Could I not do the same in reverse?

Outside of the EU it's a different matter entirely.

01-07-2020 11:53PM

DrPhilG wrote: »

Mind if I ask why you think that?

I have a family member getting married at the end of the month, after pushing it back twice already.

Now she's pushing back the reception etc again until March, but she's going to get married at home with just immediate family.

The issue is that one of her brothers lives in Canada. He wants to come, and had booked for the original date before the world went nuts.

But as things stand he can't, because he would have to isolate for 2 weeks on arrival.

Any news on loosening of the restrictions would be most welcome.

It’s a hunch based on how the opening has gone so far. Unfortunately I don’t think North America will be included

questionmark? · 01-07-2020 11:54PM

showpony1 wrote: »

Just back from my gym which opened back up today.

Queue outside to enter the building - and then once inside and used the changing rooms, there is another slower-moving queue to actually get onto the gym floor, one in one out on the gym floor.

This meant that then gym floor was pretty empty but queue of about 50 people in the hallway standing nearer to each other than they would be up in the actual gym itself.

normal things in life going to remain a nightmare for the foreseeable.

Sounds like you attend a poorly managed gym.
Mine has a book up to two days in advance system, one hour slot gym with option of additional hour in the pool. No Queuing. In the front door and out the back. Social distancing enforcers in the gym. I kind of thought that all gyms would follow this process.

Arghus · 01-07-2020 11:56PM

growleaves wrote: »

No they weren't.

When people were saying 'He isn't an epidemiologist' and should be ignored entirely, I specifically remember telling someone he might have something to contribute and should be listened to because of his background rather than dismissed out of hand.

I don't know what he's had to say lately.

He's what I have to say: we've been hearing about "spikes", "surges" and "record high new cases" in the US for five to six weeks yet deaths (so far) have not exploded (except in Florida?). The CDC have indicated that there may be ten undetected cases for every detected cases. Therefore the claim that it is definitely new cases that are being picked up each time may be wrong, and it should be considered carefully who is saying this (i.e. is it just news media or someone more credible?)

I haven't been following it closely so feel free to contradict everything I've said with enlightening info. Cheers

I must be imagining reading over and over again that his findings were proof that the virus would burn away.

I think you're painting a far more neutral and objective view of the past there.

01-07-2020 11:58PM

Damiencm wrote: »

I have posted what I am about to say on another thread but how exactly will ,an Irish green list of countries work?

Say for instance, and this is just a random example, Germany is on a green list but Belgium is not, the exercise is fairly pointless.

At this stage there is pretty much free movement of people within countries on mainland Europe. If the above scenario arose could a Belgian not just simply cross the border to Germany and get on a flight to Ireland?

Could a person residing in Spain not simply come to Ireland via Portugal?

Could I not do the same in reverse?

Outside of the EU it's a different matter entirely.

I think any green list will need to be agreed eu wide for the reasons you mentioned.

Goldengirl · 02-07-2020 12:02AM

MickeyLeari wrote: »

Agree.

Plus temp checks on arrival and departure. Random testing could also be introduced. Simple - pick a flight and checks carried out on random passengers.

Yes + 1 on this.
Seeing as the testing has been " ramped up " I really think it needs to be applied where its needed which is at points of entry to the state , but will Micheál make that unpopular decision on himself?

02-07-2020 12:02AM

growleaves wrote: »

No they weren't.

When people were saying 'He isn't an epidemiologist' and should be ignored entirely, I specifically remember telling someone he might have something to contribute and should be listened to because of his background rather than dismissed out of hand.

I don't know what he's had to say lately.

He's what I have to say: we've been hearing about "spikes", "surges" and "record high new cases" in the US for five to six weeks yet deaths (so far) have not exploded (except in Florida?). The CDC have indicated that there may be ten undetected cases for every detected cases. Therefore the claim that it is definitely new cases that are being picked up each time may be wrong, and it should be considered carefully who is saying this (i.e. is it just news media or someone more credible?)

I haven't been following it closely so feel free to contradict everything I've said with enlightening info. Cheers

Looks to me like death rate has fallen with summer. Maybe vitamin D giving increased resistance. The real surge in the southern states has been over the last two weeks, so if death rates stay flat it may well be that there is as seasonality to it, or the strain now spreading in the US is less virulent. Hospitalisations are still huge there though

Assetbacked · 02-07-2020 12:04AM

Goldengirl wrote: »

If in the future we are still reporting single figure cases then yes a change of strategy will be warranted . Until then SD , hand washing/ sanitisers , masks in contained areas and queues will be the order of the day I think .
Any increase needs to be stopped in its tracks quickly before it ramps up spread.
This means testing, tracing and isolation of clusters , and you must recognise that repeated reinstatement of restrictions, locally , due to virus resurgence may be necessary before we are out of the woods here.

Ah the "future", how impractically and illogically vague but I suppose that is necessary to back up your watery claims.

Goldengirl · 02-07-2020 12:07AM

Damiencm wrote: »

I have posted what I am about to say on another thread but how exactly will ,an Irish green list of countries work?

Say for instance, and this is just a random example, Germany is on a green list but Belgium is not, the exercise is fairly pointless.

At this stage there is pretty much free movement of people within countries on mainland Europe. If the above scenario arose could a Belgian not just simply cross the border to Germany and get on a flight to Ireland?

Could a person residing in Spain not simply come to Ireland via Portugal?

Could I not do the same in reverse?

Outside of the EU it's a different matter entirely.

Yes you could , and from UK via NI .

Don't really mind about where you go as long as you are tested or / and isolate on return .
That is where they need to be concentrating, not on banning folk from travelling .
If you came from Belgium to be told you only have to isolate until your test result came back, it would be far more palatable .

Goldengirl · 02-07-2020 12:13AM

[Deleted User] wrote: »

It’s a hunch based on how the opening has gone so far. Unfortunately I don’t think North America will be included

Isn't Canada different from US , infection wise ?

02-07-2020 12:15AM

Goldengirl wrote: »

If in the future we are still reporting single figure cases then yes a change of strategy will be warranted . Until then SD , hand washing/ sanitisers , masks in contained areas and queues will be the order of the day I think .
Any increase needs to be stopped in its tracks quickly before it ramps up spread.
This means testing, tracing and isolation of clusters , and you must recognise that repeated reinstatement of restrictions, locally , due to virus resurgence may be necessary before we are out of the woods here.

We should go for some sort of alert level system to raise awareness.

1 - no internal control, travel to green countries
2 - no large gatherings, targeted social distancing, travel to green countries - where we should be at the moment
3 - masks, 2m social distance, travel quarantine where we are currently
4 - Back to phase 2+ Masks
5 - back to phase 1

I think we will possibly hover between 1, 2 and sometimes 3 until this is over

Relaxation of Restrictions, Part IV - **Read OP for Mod Warnings**

Comments

Relaxation of Restrictions, Part IV - Read OP for Mod Warnings