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Covid19 Part XVIII-25,473 in ROI(1,736 deaths) 5,760 in NI (551 deaths)(30/06)Read OP

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Comments

  • #8642
    What Username Guidelines
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,139 ✭✭✭What Username Guidelines


    An Ciarraioch wrote: »
    And still no county data yet!

    County data comes with the usual formatted case data.

    The tinfoil hat side of me is wondering if it’s anything to do with removing travel restrictions on Monday. Makes places with low case numbers, or no cases in weeks, more attractive for us riddled dubs for our holidays :)


  • #8643
    tom1ie
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 12,644 ✭✭✭✭tom1ie


    Worztron wrote: »
    Would a scarf suffice as a face covering on a bus?

    Better than nothing for protecting others.


  • #8644
    fleet_admiral
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,750 ✭✭✭fleet_admiral


    ACitizenErased wrote: »
    Nursing homes and it seems that everyone who goes to a doctor is being offered a test now.

    I'm just over a bout of cellulitis, I was twsted for covid too


  • #8645
    What Username Guidelines
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,139 ✭✭✭What Username Guidelines


    DOCARCH wrote: »
    Cases worldwide just passed the 10 million mark, according to Worldometers.

    Deaths likely to surpass half a million at some stage this evening as well.


  • #8646
    tom1ie
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 12,644 ✭✭✭✭tom1ie


    is_that_so wrote: »
    As a measure of those who no longer have COVID it is key data to assessing the virulence of it.

    I think the point is when you are released from hospital (if it gets that far) its not like you are back to your previous fitness straight away. It can take a long time.


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  • #8647
    Renjit
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 949 ✭✭✭Renjit


    Worztron wrote: »
    Would a scarf suffice as a face covering on a bus?

    Nope. A typical surgical mask has 3 layers.You wouldn't be able to blow a candle flame.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MpRm-bqOTTI


    Video is only for informational purpose. You can buy mask from any retailer.


  • #8648
    antodeco
    Registered Users, Subscribers, Registered Users 2 Posts: 13,706 ✭✭✭✭antodeco


    Worztron wrote: »
    Would a scarf suffice as a face covering on a bus?

    It'd want to be a big scarf to cover the bus!


  • #8649
    Rob A. Bank
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,842 ✭✭✭Rob A. Bank


    DOCARCH wrote: »
    Cases worldwide just passed the 10 million mark, according to Worldometers.

    And reported deaths very close to half a million... A sad milestone on the world's coronavirus journey.

    And no signs of it plateauing in the world outside western Europe. USA more than 2.5 million cases, Brazil close to 1.3 million cases, India and Russia over half a million cases.


  • #8650
    Goldengirl
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2, Paid Member Posts: 17,349 ✭✭✭✭Goldengirl


    [Deleted User] wrote: »
    You’re right, with all my tedious rambling I forgot to state my Antibody Test was Negative. I was Not originally tested when I first became ill. Therefore I don’t know if my Covid-like illness was Covid or not, or if I did indeed have covid and lost any antibodies to it.

    Similar situation end of February to mid March ..have never had a "flu" like it , I'll for 4 weeks . Got caught up in the criteria , and the backlog etc .,even as healthcare worker ( !) but in the end was tested two weeks after symptoms went and negative or " not detected " .
    Have developed a continuing night cough since then and was also treated for pleurisy , and was totally wrecked but unable to sleep until May , but tested a couple of times since at work and still negative .
    Long story short, my doctor wants to refer me for antibody testing when it becomes available , because he is convinced I had it , however I am still taking care obviously as I really don't know if I had it or not . Work would love to know if I had it , for obvious reasons !
    By the way I am one of the nurses who always gets the flu jab, but this year an awful lot of people who did still got very ill in January and February . Usually the vaccine will render a dose of flu less virulent , but not this year .
    Coincidence?


  • #8651
    ShineOn7
    Closed Accounts Posts: 4,550 ✭✭✭ShineOn7


    UAE

    387 new cases today from 52,000 tests. They're testing aggressively there

    https://www.thenational.ae/world/mena/coronavirus-live-uae-confirms-387-more-cases-1.1021139

    I'm forgetting how to do basic school Maths, but that is a tiny % for positive cases

    0.3 approximately?


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  • #8652
    What Username Guidelines
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,139 ✭✭✭What Username Guidelines


    Renjit wrote: »
    Nope. A typical surgical mask has 3 layers.You wouldn't be able to blow a candle flame.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MpRm-bqOTTI


    Video is only for informational purpose. You can buy mask from any retailer.

    A scarf is still better than nothing to help protect others. Ideally you’ll want a decent mask but, if stuck, a covering of any kind helps. The issue with the virus being smaller than the gaps in cotton, for example, is correct, but it’s carried in droplets, many of which will be kept within a cotton mask. If everyone did it there’d be less droplets spread about. For your own protection tho it is best to get something better, or even double layer cotton with kitchen paper between as a filter.


  • #8653
    What Username Guidelines
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,139 ✭✭✭What Username Guidelines


    ShineOn7 wrote: »
    UAE

    387 new cases today from 52,000 tests. They're testing aggressively there

    https://www.thenational.ae/world/mena/coronavirus-live-uae-confirms-387-more-cases-1.1021139

    I'm forgetting how to do basic school Maths, but that is a tiny % for positive cases

    0.3 approximately?

    It’s about 0.7%


  • #8654
    Gruffalux
    Closed Accounts Posts: 3,023 ✭✭✭Gruffalux


    Rob A. Bank wrote: »
    And reported deaths very close to half a million... A sad milestone on the world's coronavirus journey.

    And no signs of it plateauing in the world outside western Europe. USA more than 2.5 million cases, Brazil close to 1.3 million cases, India and Russia over half a million cases.

    It is a really hard thing to accept that without serious restrictions this thing is not going back in Pandora's Box. It exists now. That is the reality.


  • #8655
    tom1ie
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 12,644 ✭✭✭✭tom1ie


    Gruffalox wrote: »
    It is a really hard thing to accept that without serious restrictions this thing is not going back in Pandora's Box. It exists now. That is the reality.

    We won’t be clear of it until we get a vaccine or reach 60-70% infected rates.


  • #8656
    Gruffalux
    Closed Accounts Posts: 3,023 ✭✭✭Gruffalux


    tom1ie wrote: »
    We won’t be clear of it until we get a vaccine or reach 60-70% infected rates.

    We are only at about 5% and unsure re antibody effectiveness long term and a vaccine for a coronavirus...welll...It is a fecked up thing that is happened and I think it is hard for a lot of the people on the planet to really get our heads around it.


  • #8657
    ShineOn7
    Closed Accounts Posts: 4,550 ✭✭✭ShineOn7


    Seen on Reddit, so keep that in mind

    Studies on Covid-19 lethality


    https://swprs.org/studies-on-covid-19-lethality/
    Covid-19 IFR based on epidemiological models or predictions. These values are often somewhat higher than the actual values based on serological antibody studies (see above).



    In May 2020, the US CDC published a best estimate IFR of 0.26% (based on 35% asymptomatic cases)



    Country Published Population IFR (%) Source
    USA May 20 CDC estimate 0.26¹ Study
    France May 13 France 0.70 Study
    Switzerland May 11 Switzerland 0.40 Study
    UK May 7 UK 0.08² Study
    France May 7 France 0.80³ Study
    Global May 6 Metastudy 0.64 Study
    Global May 5 Global 0.17 Study
    India May 3 India 0.41 Study
    Italy
    USA April 20 Lombardia
    New York City >0.84
    >0.50 Study
    China March 30 Mainland China 0.66 Study
    China March 13 Wuhan city 0.12 Study
    China March 9 Mainland China 0.50 Study





    Ignore the China data obviously. But that aside, the mortality rate on it looks tiny on these studies they linked in the report


  • #8658
    Boggles
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 42,959 ✭✭✭✭Boggles


    ACitizenErased wrote: »
    I still concede that if we can have less than 35 cases a day we're doing really well.

    35 cases a day until when?

    The chances of us keeping it at 245 cases a week when it surges again is nil.

    70 cases day will be doing really well, 100 a day will be okay.

    1000+ a week without reintroducing restrictions, you are probably looking at losing control of it.


  • #8659
    Speak Now
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 8,871 ✭✭✭Speak Now


    tom1ie wrote: »
    We won’t be clear of it until we get a vaccine or reach 60-70% infected rates.

    Not a hope we get 60% infected rates.


  • #8660
    Boggles
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 42,959 ✭✭✭✭Boggles


    ShineOn7 wrote: »
    Ignore the China data obviously. But that aside, the mortality rate on it looks tiny on these studies they linked in the report

    I'd be ignoring the UK and USA too.

    Alot of creative accounting going on (lies).


  • #8661
    Rob A. Bank
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,842 ✭✭✭Rob A. Bank


    Boggles wrote: »
    I'd be ignoring the UK and USA too.

    Alot of creative accounting going on (lies).

    Yes a lot of countries shamelessly cooking the books... all we can say is that the figures are an underestimate of the real problem.

    With very little idea of how much an underestimate it really is.


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  • #8662
    tom1ie
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 12,644 ✭✭✭✭tom1ie


    Speak Now wrote: »
    Not a hope we get 60% infected rates.

    Ok.
    So we rely on a vaccine to get us to that level of infection.
    Unfortunately a virus is at the very best a good bit away. (I think the oxford one is the closest from what I’ve been told here.)
    The virus won’t just disappear unfortunately.


  • #8663
    ShineOn7
    Closed Accounts Posts: 4,550 ✭✭✭ShineOn7


    Boggles wrote: »
    I'd be ignoring the UK and USA too.

    Alot of creative accounting going on (lies).
    Rob A. Bank wrote: »
    Yes a lot of countries shamelessly cooking the books... all we can say is that the figures are an underestimate of the real problem.

    With very little idea of how much an underestimate it really is.

    I'd agree the UK and USA numbers are dodgy too

    But a study was done on Italian health workers infected (linked in that website), and the mortality rate was 0.3%


  • #8664
    speckle
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,251 ✭✭✭speckle


    Please dont get stressed, levels are LOW but it is something extra to keep an eye on around the world. I am hoping it might be related to the forest fires suroundingzernoybl or accidental with staff falling ill with covid?

    https://thebarentsobserver.com/en/ecology/2020/06/various-reactor-related-isotopes-measured-over-scandinavia-and-svalbard#.XvX2OawTFW4.twitter


  • #8665
    ACitizenErased
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 11,865 ✭✭✭✭ACitizenErased


    The county data has NOT BEEN RELEASED and I might go crazy, I need to know!!!!


  • #8666
    ShineOn7
    Closed Accounts Posts: 4,550 ✭✭✭ShineOn7


    ACitizenErased wrote: »
    The county data has NOT BEEN RELEASED and I might go crazy, I need to know!!!!


    :)


    You've a good eye for data Citizen, your thoughts on this? https://swprs.org/studies-on-covid-19-lethality/

    Ignore the Chinese figures obviously. And, as was pointed out, probably best to do same with USA and UK

    But the rest?

    The mortality rate looks tiny when you dig into the data. Where do you think it is presently? 0.3 to 0.5%?


  • #8667
    wadacrack
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,172 ✭✭✭wadacrack


    ShineOn7 wrote: »
    :)


    You've a good idea for data Citizen, your thoughts on this? https://swprs.org/studies-on-covid-19-lethality/

    Ignore the Chinese figures obviously. And, as was pointed out, probably best to do same with USA and UK

    But the rest?

    The mortality rate looks tiny when you dig into the data. Where do you think it is presently? 0.3 to 0.5%?

    Would like to see more data on the mild conditions/ Long term side effects. Average duration of recovery etc.


  • #8668
    ACitizenErased
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 11,865 ✭✭✭✭ACitizenErased


    ShineOn7 wrote: »
    :)


    You've a good idea for data Citizen, your thoughts on this? https://swprs.org/studies-on-covid-19-lethality/

    Ignore the Chinese figures obviously. And, as was pointed out, probably best to do same with USA and UK

    But the rest?

    The mortality rate looks tiny when you dig into the data. Where do you think it is presently? 0.3 to 0.5%?


    I'm gonna try do it 2 ways.
    1) Conservative - we miss 1 asymptomatic case for every 1 confirmed case. This is how our modelling is done. With that perspective our IFR is about 3%.


    2) Being logical, based on realism - we probably missed up to 10 asymptomatic cases for every 1 confirmed case - that's about 250,000 cases. In that case, we've an IFR of 0.8%. Even that seems high!


  • #8669
    ZX7R
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,395 ✭✭✭ZX7R


    speckle wrote: »
    Please dont get stressed, levels are LOW but it is something extra to keep an eye on around the world. I am hoping it might be related to the forest fires suroundingzernoybl or accidental with staff falling ill with covid?

    https://thebarentsobserver.com/en/ecology/2020/06/various-reactor-related-isotopes-measured-over-scandinavia-and-svalbard#.XvX2OawTFW4.twitter

    Probably from the forest fires near Chernobyl in the Ukraine


  • #8670
    ShineOn7
    Closed Accounts Posts: 4,550 ✭✭✭ShineOn7


    wadacrack wrote: »
    Would like to see more data on the mild conditions/ Long term side effects. Average duration of recovery etc.

    Yes that's definitely being downplayed by the media I feel


    This is absolutely something you want to avoid getting. At least till the treatments vastly improve (I'm not overly hopeful for a vaccine)

    But it's looking more and more that your chances of dying from it are about 1 in 200. Obviously these odds change drastically if you're over 70 years old, and even more so if you're 80+


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  • #8671
    ShineOn7
    Closed Accounts Posts: 4,550 ✭✭✭ShineOn7


    ACitizenErased wrote: »
    I'm gonna try do it 2 ways.
    1) Conservative - we miss 1 asymptomatic case for every 1 confirmed case. This is how our modelling is done. With that perspective our IFR is about 3%.


    2) Being logical, based on realism - we probably missed up to 10 asymptomatic cases for every 1 confirmed case - that's about 250,000 cases. In that case, we've an IFR of 0.8%. Even that seems high!


    Cheers. This is for Ireland?

    Where do you feel the IFR is at worldwide based on non Chinese/UK/USA data? https://swprs.org/studies-on-covid-19-lethality/


This discussion has been closed.
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