Thursday/Friday: Lightning Storms, Flash Flooding Event Thread

highdef · 26-06-2020 12:04AM

Spencer Brown wrote: »

Am I missing something? This yellow level warning for the entire country looks a bit silly. I doubt most counties will see any sort of action let alone anything warranting a warning.

It's an advisory highlighting the risk of storms. Take heed.

John.Icy · 26-06-2020 12:06AM

Not much making it past the Wicklow Mts so far where I'm concerned in Dublin - though nothing major seems to have sparked yet so there's still time and I'm not missing much yet. But a rapid intensification in 3 hours towards a 3AM peak I've seen around here?? Seems unlikely tbh but thunderstorms are my weakest area so I'll leave it to the experts. Getting more lively to our SE over Wales but a lot of that is heading straight up the Irish sea.

Treepole · 26-06-2020 12:09AM

squarecircles wrote: »

my god ireland is tragic with thunderstorm potential.

to think people were talking about 1985 earlier in the week.

the sooner were back to brass tax the better,put people out of their misery.

A dedicated thread,jesus wept.

Good old primate city country. what a joke.

It's "brass tacks" not tax

Spencer Brown · 26-06-2020 12:10AM

highdef wrote: »

It's an advisory highlighting the risk of storms. Take heed.

It's not an advisory, it's a weather warning.

Thunderlover · 26-06-2020 12:15AM

North Wicklow here. Can someone please advise me if it is worth staying up for another hour or two to see some storms or will I call it a night? I sleep with ear plugs so I won't hear the thunder if I nod off!

Danno · 26-06-2020 12:16AM

Interesting rainfall radar over west NI, kinda spiral shape to it.

Gaoth Laidir · 26-06-2020 12:18AM

I'm calling it a night. There might be the odd sporadic flash in places for another few hours but from the start I knew it was a long shot. Soundings never showed the CAPE required, we were never going to get the dewpoints or temperatures required for surface-based storms that some models were showing. All along it was looking like Wales would get the bulk of the action and even then they got relatively little. The IOM did best for a short while, but overall it's just another example of how rare it is to get proper Spanish plume storms here. I was surprised that ESTOFEX's Level 1 extended over Ireland but not that their discussion only focused on Spain and France.

A lesson to all is that relying on model output is a dangerous game. We had WRF CAPE and LI charts being worshipped yesterday but they were never ever going to materialise. Precip charts too. Even the ECMWF lightning density forecast charts were not worth a ****e, though the CAPE charts were more accurate. Case in point this evening. A couple of hundred J/kg is never going to produce much.

jimmynokia · 26-06-2020 12:18AM

Not a good start. Is it.

Oneiric 3 · 26-06-2020 12:20AM

Night is still young but Christ, how hard can it be just to get a half decent storm triggered off in this country, even when all the ingredients are there waiting to be chopped up and put into a plate for us to partake?

If there is one lesson I have personally learned these last couple of days is that hi-res models are, by and large, basically ****e. There is just as much info in the global lower res output.. better in fact.

AlanMcC23 · 26-06-2020 12:21AM

Flash in mountmellick Co.Laois and starting to rain. No thunder yet

Danno · 26-06-2020 12:21AM

#Interesting

The Oort Cloud · 26-06-2020 12:22AM

Balbriggan looks like it could get a nice few lightning bolts in the next hour.

KingdomRushed · 26-06-2020 12:22AM

It's all over for now anyway. The couple of radar returns producing sparks have dissipated. Unless you knew the context that storms were expected and you saw the weak sauce light to moderate rain in the east thats on the radar currently, would u expect anything to happen? Nah. met eireann correct to downgrade this mornin in the text even though they had already run with the national warnings. Very remote chance of anything now in my opinion.

highdef · 26-06-2020 12:24AM

Spencer Brown wrote: »

It's not an advisory, it's a weather warning.

Ok, to be a bit more detailed....

"Weather that does not pose a threat to the general population but is potentially dangerous on a localised scale.

Be aware about meteorological conditions and check if you are exposed to danger by nature of your activity or your specific location. Do not take any avoidable risks"

So basically a yellow warning is an advisory that nothing severe is expected but, depending on what you're doing you may want to be aware of the weather conditions as it has the potential to impact you, potentially in a harmful way.

Thunderlover · 26-06-2020 12:24AM

KingdomRushed wrote: »

It's all over for now anyway. The couple of radar returns producing sparks have dissipated. Unless you knew the context that storms were expected and you saw the weak sauce light to moderate rain in the east thats on the radar currently, would u expect anything to happen? Nah. met eireann correct to downgrade this mornin in the text even though they had already run with the national warnings. Very remote chance of anything now in my opinion.

Based on that I think I'll call it a night. Very disappointing.

Cooljaybeans · 26-06-2020 12:27AM

Just seen lightning off the South Coast kilmore direction

pad199207 · 26-06-2020 12:28AM

Pity. I would have loved to have had a Purple Level Storm

squarecircles · 26-06-2020 12:29AM

"Could be a memorable event tomorrow evening and overnight for many and deserves it's own thread."

No, no it doesn't.

r93kaey5p2izun · 26-06-2020 12:29AM

I recall a period of significant lightning activity in Dublin over a few days in I think mid-late October 2003. It sticks out to me because of something tragic that was happening in my life at that time, but maybe the circumstances have amplified my memories of the weather conditions. Is there any record of thunderstorm activity around that time, or where could I look?

Nothing but a bit of drizzle to report here in Clondalkin so far anyway. Disappointing!

Gaoth Laidir · 26-06-2020 12:29AM

The only good thing about this bad thing is that that gob****e on Facebook with his purple warning areas will be left with a whole lot of egg on his face. I hope his posts did indeed get shared, as he was begging people to do...

Larbre34 · 26-06-2020 12:29AM

This blows maaaaaan.

igCorcaigh · 26-06-2020 12:29AM

Class MayDresser wrote: »

Any chance it might come further south later on?

Who knows, but all my hope has gone

John.Icy · 26-06-2020 12:30AM

Thanks for the update GL. Your knowledge on these sort of things is incredible and too often it can get swallowed up with the excitement of others.

Rodney Bathgate · 26-06-2020 12:30AM

Another damp squib

SleetAndSnow · 26-06-2020 12:31AM

Gaoth Laidir wrote: »

The only good thing about this bad thing is that that gob****e on Facebook with his purple warning areas will be left with a whole lot of egg on his face. I hope his posts did indeed get shared, as he was begging people to do...

Except Met Eireann will get the blame because of his stupidity

squarecircles · 26-06-2020 12:33AM

Rodney Bathgate wrote: »

Another damp squib

A damp squid indeed, the lighting never materialised, back to brass tax from tomorrow.
Gonzo must be sticking pins in his head.

It pure bdsm weather porn.

Thunderlover · 26-06-2020 12:34AM

Gaoth Laidir wrote: »

The only good thing about this bad thing is that that gob****e on Facebook with his purple warning areas will be left with a whole lot of egg on his face. I hope his posts did indeed get shared, as he was begging people to do...

In fairness there were one or two in here hyping things up also. Indeed this separate thread was set up for this 'event'. That guy was OTT with the purple warning areas but we were being told in here that it was going to be a memorable event. Not having a go at individuals but many people got caught out by this non event.

Donegal Storm · 26-06-2020 12:35AM

Oneiric 3 wrote: »

Night is still young but Christ, how hard can it be just to get a half decent storm triggered off in this country, even when all the ingredients are there waiting to be chopped up and put into a plate for us to partake?

If there is one lesson I have personally learned these last couple of days is that hi-res models are, by and large, basically ****e. There is just as much info in the global lower res output.. better in fact.

Think I read before that the Arome model was specifically developed for forecasting short term convective weather, I've been keeping an eye on it for the past 36 hours and overall its been fairly bang on the money, compared to the rest at least.

Forecasting plume's is never easy (though forecasting a non-event you'd be right ~100% of the time), we have one of these threads at least once every summer and in nearly 15 years on this forum I've never seen one deliver much more than some Irish Sea storms or a few that clip the south east coast.

Have to laugh at this thread as well, in almost every other country on earth a forecast of 'a few scattered thunderstorms' and people wouldn't even bat an eyelid, here we have 35 pages of hype for whats so far amounted to a few sporadic flashes of lightning :pac:

Sums up how soul destroying it is having an interest in extreme weather in Ireland

Kermit.de.frog · 26-06-2020 12:36AM

What did I miss? :pac:

Looks disappointing so far but things can flare quickly so don't be too down hearted in the east.As MT was saying our timeline here has been pushed back a few hours.

Our best chance in the east for lightning is from activity making it's way up through Wexford and Wicklow in the next 90 minutes.

If we are to get a storm I'd much prefer something between now and 3 am.

Will be keeping an eye out, hopeful as ever.

Davaeo09 · 26-06-2020 12:37AM

There's a few more hours of hopecasting

Thursday/Friday: Lightning Storms, Flash Flooding Event Thread

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