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Donald Trump Presidency discussion Thread VII (threadbanned users listed in OP)

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    #9692
    amandstu
    Registered Users Posts: 3,459 ✭✭✭amandstu


    moon2 wrote: »
    And this is one of the reasons why Americans won't be allowed enter Europe. If you're failing to adequately test and report covid infection rates then you won't be on the "allow" list.

    The current non-binding guidance which will be distributed will contain a list of countries considered to be "low risk" due to how well they are handling the pandemic. Low risk countries would be allowed enter Europe.

    The US is not a low risk country.
    Would Americans be able to use the UK/NI as a back door to the EU?

    Even if they finesse their numbers will it not be possible to adjust for that if anyone needs to see the numbers based on previous methods as well as the ongoing trends?

    Edit: will NY State et al impose similar measures on other out of control States?


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    #9693
    fullstop
    Registered Users Posts: 11,346 ✭✭✭✭fullstop


    RobertKK wrote: »
    https://twitter.com/Acyn/status/1275567239517868033?s=20

    It is nearly as bad as Simon Harris's they never found a vaccine for the other 18. There are a lot of politicians who don't understand some basic stuff. No wonder these people move from one crisis to another.
    If Trump doesn't understand the 19 at this stage...

    Nearly as bad?!! I don’t remember Simon Harris including some casual racism in his gaffe.


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    #9694
    moon2
    Registered Users Posts: 691 ✭✭✭moon2


    pixelburp wrote: »
    Is this actually happening though? I'd heard tell the EU might be banning travel from US, Brazil and Russia, but hadn't heard confirmation it'd happen for real.

    The most important thing to note is that this is non-binding EU level guidance. My understanding is that this is not an EU competency so the 'EU' cannot unilaterally enforce all member states comply with the guidance. I believe the EU has the competency to close internal borders between countries to control the spread though, so there is an effective after-the-fact mechanism which can be used.

    In short, I dont expect to see explicit guidance banning/restricting immigration from the US. I'd expect to see guidance saying it's "safe" to open travel between explicitly listed countries, and I expect that list will not include countries like the US or Brazil.
    Would Americans be able to use the UK/NI as a back door to the EU?
    If binding guidance were given, then the UK would either be considered part of the EU and would be bound by it, or they would not be part of the EU and would not be bound. I'm unsure how the transition period would affect this determination. Either way, were the UK to have out of control covid spread for any reason, i would hope they would be similarly excluded from travel. I would hope the same would apply to Ireland too.

    EDIT: Some further reading here: https://edition.cnn.com/2020/06/23/politics/eu-us-coronavirus-travel/index.html


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    #9695
    spacecoyote
    Registered Users Posts: 8,489 ✭✭✭spacecoyote


    salmocab wrote: »
    Unless the way deaths are reported changes, if they stop reporting the deaths as Covid related then that number will slow right down. Numbers aren’t people to this administration.

    They've already been massaging the numbers since the start. In most states unless someone is tested and confirmed they're not included in the numbers if I remember correct, so a significant number have already been excluded.

    538 had a piece discussing it. Had an example of a man with underlying conditions, had all the symptoms for Covid and his GP said he likely had it, but he was too sick to get to a hospital/GP surgery so was never tested. Died subsequently but death cert said reason for death was complications from his underlying condition.


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    #9696
    moon2
    Registered Users Posts: 691 ✭✭✭moon2


    spacecoyote wrote: »
    They've already been massaging the numbers since the start. In most states unless someone is tested and confirmed they're not included in the numbers if I remember correct, so a significant number have already been excluded.

    As long as they continue to report mortality accurately then you can infer more accurate numbers for covid related deaths. The average mortality rate for the last few years is available on the CDC website and it can be compared to the reported mortality rate this year. The data is lagging by a few weeks, but i believe it's still considered accurate.

    It would be reasonable to assume the difference in mortality between this year and the historical average is most likely to be covid, and that can be used to estimate the actual covidmortality rate, and infection rate, when the officially reported numbers are known to be wrong.


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    #9697
    salmocab
    Registered Users Posts: 11,314 ✭✭✭✭salmocab


    moon2 wrote: »
    As long as they continue to report mortality accurately then you can infer more accurate numbers for covid related deaths. The average mortality rate for the last few years is available on the CDC website and it can be compared to the reported mortality rate this year. The data is lagging by a few weeks, but i believe it's still considered accurate.

    It would be reasonable to assume the difference in mortality between this year and the historical average is most likely to be covid, and that can be used to estimate the actual covidmortality rate, and infection rate, when the officially reported numbers are known to be wrong.

    It’s probably more nuanced though. There has been less people out and about so there are probably lower stats for things like car accidents so the math might be a bit more complicated.


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    #9698
    Christy42
    Registered Users Posts: 7,895 ✭✭✭Christy42


    salmocab wrote: »
    It’s probably more nuanced though. There has been less people out and about so there are probably lower stats for things like car accidents so the math might be a bit more complicated.

    It is at least a reasonable comparison between countries even if it won't be exact.


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    #9699
    spacecoyote
    Registered Users Posts: 8,489 ✭✭✭spacecoyote


    Christy42 wrote: »
    It is at least a reasonable comparison between countries even if it won't be exact.

    Agreed, that makes sense. Just saw that the UK deaths over the average is 65k, versus their official figures of around 43k, which is a significant difference.


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    #9700
    TomOnBoard
    Registered Users Posts: 5,109 ✭✭✭TomOnBoard


    pixelburp wrote: »
    Is this actually happening though? I'd heard tell the EU might be banning travel from US, Brazil and Russia, but hadn't heard confirmation it'd happen for real. Seems like a potentially incendiary move politically. That'd be the first time in history America would become a "don't go there" country, right?

    Does it matter if they are politically incendiary potentially? The first duty of the EU in this case is to keep its people safe. So, it must apply the same thinking to inward travel from Covid hotspots regardless of who those countries are. This pandemic is only getting worse, and the US Administration and many of its Governors are simply ignoring it and are totally focused on economics over people safety just to re-elect an appalling President. I'm buggered if, having had thousands of deaths and millions of cases in EU, and taken huge and extremely painful steps to flatten the curve, anyone should undermine all that effort, pain and suffering by allowing ppl in whose own Government's handling is borderline criminally negligent.


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    #9701
    salmocab
    Registered Users Posts: 11,314 ✭✭✭✭salmocab


    Christy42 wrote: »
    It is at least a reasonable comparison between countries even if it won't be exact.

    Oh yeah for sure for comparison it would work reasonably well but it won’t be very accurate on the actual death toll. Probably straying a bit off topic though now.


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    #9702
    TomOnBoard
    Registered Users Posts: 5,109 ✭✭✭TomOnBoard


    salmocab wrote: »
    Oh yeah for sure for comparison it would work reasonably well but it won’t be very accurate on the actual death toll. Probably straying a bit off topic though now.

    While I agree that we don't want to go off topic, the issue of Covid, the associated infection and death rates as well as the mitigation strategies employed by various Governments at both National and Local levels, are hugely relevant to Trump's Presidency. As we get closer to November, per. capita comparisons will be made constantly across a range of parameters, and he will be absolutely HAMMERED as things get even worse in the US (and particularly in so-called Trump Country) as current trends seem to indicate.


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    #9703
    Paleface
    Registered Users Posts: 1,925 ✭✭✭Paleface


    Trump is toast!

    As many have already pointed out, what has he left to run on after his first term. All economic gains lost. No legislative improvements. Nothing to look back on only the many mishaps, arguments and political climb downs.

    All he had to do was face into COVID 19 with a bit of compassion and honesty. Admit that it was something he couldn’t control and provide the general public with clear guidelines and leadership and despite it all of that his popularity would probably have soared.

    But that’s just not who he is and now his presidency is going to go down in flames. A lot like everything else he’s ever done in life!


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    #9704
    Foxtrol
    Registered Users Posts: 11,101 ✭✭✭✭Foxtrol


    They continue to be so bad at this.

    For attack ads they now have soundbites of Trump saying he wants to slow down testing, him saying he doesn't kid, and now the administration cancelling federal funding for testing.


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    #9705
    salmocab
    Registered Users Posts: 11,314 ✭✭✭✭salmocab


    Paleface wrote: »
    Trump is toast!

    As many have already pointed out, what has he left to run on after his first term. All economic gains lost. No legislative improvements. Nothing to look back on only the many mishaps, arguments and political climb downs.

    All he had to do was face into COVID 19 with a bit of compassion and honesty. Admit that it was something he couldn’t control and provide the general public with clear guidelines and leadership and despite it all of that his popularity would probably have soared.

    But that’s just not who he is and now his presidency is going to go down in flames. A lot like everything else he’s ever done in life!

    I’ve said this a few times, if he took the hard decisions early and listened to real advice he could have had a relatively easy win on this, the economy would have suffered undoubtedly but that wouldn’t actually have been his fault. He couldn’t do that though, he initially tried to make it all about himself for some reason And when it was clear that that plan had gone spectacularly wrong he tried to make it about others and now he’s apparently happy to pretend it’s not happening. There are leaders all over who have taken a bounce because of their handling of it not least our own.


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    #9706
    TomOnBoard
    Registered Users Posts: 5,109 ✭✭✭TomOnBoard


    Paleface wrote: »
    Trump is toast!

    Hmmmm!

    If free and fair elections are held in the whole country, and particularly in battleground states, then it certainly looks like he will not get an overall majority. When the voting intentions of people in the swing/battleground states become clearer, it will be easier to call the electoral college votes as well.

    However.....

    That all assumes fairness... And we know that voter suppression across a range of tactics will be practiced like crazy, wherever they think they can get away with it. Also, Barr's poisoning of the DoJ and the potential for an 'October Surprise' should not be underestimated. On economic front, trillions more will be pumped into a very sick economy to put lipstick on the pig that is the post-lockdown, Covid-infected economy. The Fed is bankrolling / backstopping Wall Street, and stock markets are being 'goosed' to new highs all the time. In my mind, there is no reason for believing in a sure-fire Trump loss.... Although, it does get worse for him.. Every Day...


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    #9707
    briany
    Registered Users Posts: 13,615 ✭✭✭✭briany


    TomOnBoard wrote: »
    Hmmmm!

    If free and fair elections are held in the whole country, and particularly in battleground states, then it certainly looks like he will not get an overall majority. When the voting intentions of people in the swing/battleground states become clearer, it will be easier to call the electoral college votes as well.

    However.....

    That all assumes fairness... And we know that voter suppression across a range of tactics will be practiced like crazy, wherever they think they can get away with it. Also, Barr's poisoning of the DoJ and the potential for an 'October Surprise' should not be underestimated. On economic front, trillions more will be pumped into a very sick economy to put lipstick on the pig that is the post-lockdown, Covid-infected economy. The Fed is bankrolling / backstopping Wall Street, and stock markets are being 'goosed' to new highs all the time. In my mind, there is no reason for believing in a sure-fire Trump loss.... Although, it does get worse for him.. Every Day...

    Trump's going to try and invigourate has base as much as possible. With the way Trump is going on, I wonder if there's not a tacit admittance that he's not going to be able to pull in the undecideds this time around, and he has to hope people don't turn out for Joe Biden, or, as you say, have his people engage in what could be called 'legal rigging', or maybe even not so legal. But what skin would it be off Trump's nose to have some sort of supreme court proceeding over the legitimacy of his reelection? However his reelection came to pass would be alright by him.


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    #9708
    aloyisious
    Registered Users Posts: 11,574 ✭✭✭✭aloyisious


    Governors of States of New York, New Jersey and Connecticut are to implement a joint plan to quarantine visitors from Coronavirus hotspots for 14 days. This is not before it's time. https://headtopics.com/us/new-york-new-jersey-and-connecticut-to-quarantine-visitors-from-coronavirus-hot-spots-13886532


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    #9709
    Itssoeasy
    Registered Users Posts: 39,691 ✭✭✭✭Itssoeasy


    And a great point that I heard about covid-19 is that Germany has a similiar federal government set up to the USA and bye and large have handled this virus far better which just shows how badly trump has handled this from a federal stand point.


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    #9710
    aloyisious
    Registered Users Posts: 11,574 ✭✭✭✭aloyisious


    Trump and President Duda of Poland had a meeting earlier today during which Mr Duda thanked Trump and U.S Tech industries for investing in Poland, and reminded the U.S it was a staunch NATO ally. Trump, in the after Q&A session with the media, confirmed the U.S would be moving troops into Poland probably 25,000 from Germany, slated Germany for its failure to pay enough for U.S troops based there and not putting enough into NATO coffers. He slated Germany for buying fuel from Russia and said he was not worried about how Russia might feel about the troop move. It's fairly obvious NATO, Germany and Russia will be disturbed by what Trump said to the media.

    https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/polish-presidents-white-house-visit-raises-questions-us/story?id=71414658

    It's what Mr Duda said about U.S Co's investing money in jobs in Poland that might excite U.S interests as Trump was only speaking yesterday about ensuring jobs in the U.S would be kept for U.S workers, principally by cutting off visas for foreign workers. With Mr Duda saying U.S Co's were investing in his country, the implication is that U.S dollars will be invested in jobs for foreign workers abroad and maybe U.S citizens moving abroad to provide technical start-up assistance at new plants in Poland.


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    #9711
    TomOnBoard
    Registered Users Posts: 5,109 ✭✭✭TomOnBoard


    A New York Times/Siena Poll published today has Biden:Trump at 50:36, a massive 14 point difference.


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    #9712
    Itssoeasy
    Registered Users Posts: 39,691 ✭✭✭✭Itssoeasy


    TomOnBoard wrote: »
    A New York Times/Siena Poll published today has Biden:Trump at 50:36, a massive 14 point difference.

    It's a poll in June and the election is in November and if the last three and a half years are anything to go by trump won't take this lying down so be prepared for some carry on.


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    #9713
    Foxtrol
    Registered Users Posts: 11,101 ✭✭✭✭Foxtrol


    Itssoeasy wrote: »
    It's a poll in June and the election is in November and if the last three and a half years are anything to go by trump won't take this lying down so be prepared for some carry on.

    Trump tends to make things worse for himself when he carries on.

    US has seen its highest numbers of new cases of COVID and the summer months is when it is supposed to be less likely to spread. Even if things don't continue to get worse after the summer, the real economic impacts of COVID haven't even been felt yet, as federal support for business and unemployed will only be expiring soon. It'll be nearly impossible for Trump both try to extend this assistance while claiming he prevailed against the virus.

    On top of that nearly a majority of voters strongly disapprove of Trump. To shift that isn't impossible but it'll be extremely difficult. They are only polls in June but things look absolutely terrible for him.


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    #9714
    Igotadose
    Registered Users Posts: 13,218 ✭✭✭✭Igotadose


    Foxtrol wrote: »
    Trump tends to make things worse for himself when he carries on.

    US has seen its highest numbers of new cases of COVID and the summer months is when it is supposed to be less likely to spread.

    Wait... that's not what Trump said!
    "Trump says coronavirus could be thwarted by summer heat, citing DHS study"

    https://www.marketwatch.com/story/trump-says-coronavirus-could-be-thwarted-by-summer-heat-citing-dhs-study-2020-04-23


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    #9715
    Sand
    Registered Users Posts: 12,559 ✭✭✭✭Sand


    briany wrote: »
    Trump's going to try and invigourate has base as much as possible.

    Who is Trumps 'base' in 2020?


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    #9716
    aloyisious
    Registered Users Posts: 11,574 ✭✭✭✭aloyisious


    TomOnBoard wrote: »
    A New York Times/Siena Poll published today has Biden:Trump at 50:36, a massive 14 point difference.

    All Joe has to do is quote official stats on U.S Covid-19 outbreaks, infection spikes, deaths and the way the virus is now hitting younger and younger people, plus a CDC estimate that for every diagnosed infection case, there are 10 walking around in public undiagnosed and keep saying "Mr Trump, what are you doing about this?". He doesn't need to do anything else, leaving his economy experts to tackle Trump on the economy.

    Texas Gov is drawing back on the early opening and Nevada's Gov has made wearing of masks in public mandatory, incl in the casinos. If Trump keeps on denying the importance of people to wear masks to stop passing on the virus, then he's sinking his own ship. Gov Sisolak has his own opinion of people who wont wear masks to stop the virus and it would offend Trump.


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    #9717
    Retr0gamer
    Moderators, Category Moderators, Computer Games Moderators Posts: 51,030 CMod ✭✭✭✭Retr0gamer


    The problem is Trump's base listen to trump and not science or reason. They actively rebel against it. He can state all those figures and back them up with reputable sources but they will find it boring but hoot and holler and shoot their pistols in the air when Trump's says all protesters should be shot.

    It's a culture war over there. A war of the uneducated and dumb against the educated and scientific who have been talking down to them for so many years telling them what's good for them. And trump is one of them, another bigotted idiot.

    Pity they can't see Trump cares a such for them as scientists and professionals he ridicules and ignores.
    Untitled Image




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    #9718
    Sand
    Registered Users Posts: 12,559 ✭✭✭✭Sand


    Retr0gamer wrote: »
    Trump's base ... hoot and holler and shoot their pistols in the air ... the uneducated and dumb ...one of them, another bigotted idiot.

    Why cant they see you have their best interests at heart?
    Pity they can't see Trump cares a such for them as scientists and professionals he ridicules and ignores.

    They can see. That is why Trump will lose by a landslide in November. But neither are they are not going to turn out to vote for people who share your views of them.


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    #9719
    aloyisious
    Registered Users Posts: 11,574 ✭✭✭✭aloyisious


    The White House response to different state governors plans to quarantine covid-19 hot-spot state visitors and have them wear masks in public: The president is not a civilian.


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    #9720
    check_six
    Registered Users Posts: 2,245 ✭✭✭check_six


    aloyisious wrote: »
    The White House response to different state governors plans to quarantine covid-19 hot-spot state visitors and have them wear masks in public: The president is not a civilian.

    What's their point here? That he's above everyone else? That he's something superior? Are they even on nodding terms with what democracy means?
    He's not a king.
    He's 'civilian' number 1.
    He's a citizen.
    Elected by citizens.
    And he'll be booted out by his fellow citizens in November.


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    #9721
    StringerBell
    Registered Users Posts: 14,110 ✭✭✭✭StringerBell


    Sand wrote: »
    Who is Trumps 'base' in 2020?

    Same as it was in 2016, just a bit smaller.

    "People say ‘go with the flow’ but do you know what goes with the flow? Dead fish."



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