Covid19 Part XVIII-25,473 in ROI(1,736 deaths) 5,760 in NI (551 deaths)(30/06)Read OP

Drumpot · 24-06-2020 01:51PM

wadacrack wrote: »

Yea all great points tbf. I have been taken Vitamin D for the last few months. Everyone in my immediate family had aflu/cold. Some pretty bad symptoms which at the time was pretty surprising for me. They are rarely very sick. I didnt suffer any symptoms . The data around Vitamin D is very strong too. Amazing its still not being widely recommended . Zinc and Magnesium would be worth consideration also .

I take zinc and magnesium along with VIT C just to be sure. I appreciate not everybody needs these tablets , it’s just it would be nice if things we can do were being discussed publicly instead of scaremongering stories that are not overly helpful.

I even heard one doctor (on medcram) talk about the correlation between hot/cold showers and their benefits. I think it was from a study on why Scandinavian countries didn’t get it so bad. He has a cold and hot shower every day.

It’s a shame there isn’t more conhesive research (you have to search it out) on these sort of things. The VIT D suggestion could of been made in January when I first heard it from Dr John who said anybody in medicine knows that VIT D deficiency is not good when it comes to virus’s. And 6 months on there’s sort of a communication deficiency of this very fact. When I say it to friend or family they haven’t a clue what I’m talking about.

is_that_so · 24-06-2020 01:52PM

ACitizenErased wrote: »

I posted links to a new study yesterday. Antibody tests don’t pick up t-cell response, which is exactly what COVID enacts in many individuals. People who have had COVID get negative antibody results exactly for this reason. Check out the “have you been tested” thread in the forum.

At this stage we all know the dangers of one study suggestions. It is filled with mays, coulds and mights, that's not evidence. It's certainly not enough to state definitively that antibody tests are all wrong.

ACitizenErased · 24-06-2020 01:56PM

is_that_so wrote: »

At this stage we all know the dangers of one study suggestions. It is filled with mays, coulds and mights, that's not evidence. It's certainly not enough to state definitively that antibody tests are all wrong.

There's literally hundreds of accounts of people who have had COVID getting negative antibody tests. It is also commonly reported that antibodies are not the only response to COVID and that t-cells form a large part.
https://www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/covid-19/latest-evidence/immune-responses
https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2020/05/t-cells-found-covid-19-patients-bode-well-long-term-immunity
https://www.sciencenews.org/article/coronavirus-covid-19-t-cells-patients-immune-system
https://www.manchester.ac.uk/discover/news/coronavirus-how-t-cells-are-involved-and-what-it-might-mean-for-vaccine-development/
The antibody tests do not measure the t-cell response.

"Existing tests detect whether a person’s blood contains antibodies that bind to either the whole inactivated virus, a protein from its shell, or the spike protein that gives SARS-CoV-2 its characteristic crown-like structure.

According to a team of researchers — many from the University of North Carolina (UNC), Chapel Hill — there is a strong likelihood that some people with antibodies to other coronaviruses will receive false-positive results from such tests. "
https://www.medicalnewstoday.com/articles/new-covid-19-antibody-test-may-reflect-virus-immunity-more-accurately

edit: attached screenshot of genuine COVID-positive people who have tested negative for antibodies.

is_that_so · 24-06-2020 01:56PM

wadacrack wrote: »

Yea all great points tbf. I have been taken Vitamin D for the last few months. Everyone in my immediate family had aflu/cold. Some pretty bad symptoms which at the time was pretty surprising for me. They are rarely very sick. I didnt suffer any symptoms . The data around Vitamin D is very strong too. Amazing its still not being widely recommended . Zinc and Magnesium would be worth consideration also .

We tend to be D deficient anyway. Fortified milk is always on the shopping list! Also a fan of the probiotic route. I'm not sure that the Vitamin D effect is absolutely definitive for everyone as it may also depend on what kind of an immune system you have.

is_that_so · 24-06-2020 01:59PM

ACitizenErased wrote: »

There's literally hundreds of accounts of people who have had COVID getting negative antibody tests. It is also commonly reported that antibodies are not the only response to COVID and that t-cells form a large part.
https://www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/covid-19/latest-evidence/immune-responses
https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2020/05/t-cells-found-covid-19-patients-bode-well-long-term-immunity
https://www.sciencenews.org/article/coronavirus-covid-19-t-cells-patients-immune-system
https://www.manchester.ac.uk/discover/news/coronavirus-how-t-cells-are-involved-and-what-it-might-mean-for-vaccine-development/
The antibody tests do not measure the t-cell response.

"Existing tests detect whether a person’s blood contains antibodies that bind to either the whole inactivated virus, a protein from its shell, or the spike protein that gives SARS-CoV-2 its characteristic crown-like structure.

According to a team of researchers — many from the University of North Carolina (UNC), Chapel Hill — there is a strong likelihood that some people with antibodies to other coronaviruses will receive false-positive results from such tests. "
https://www.medicalnewstoday.com/articles/new-covid-19-antibody-test-may-reflect-virus-immunity-more-accurately

Likelihood is not evidence, it's a better than average guess. What's their alternative?

ACitizenErased · 24-06-2020 02:01PM

is_that_so wrote: »

Likelihood is not evidence, it's a better than average guess. What's their alternative?

I don't know what the alternative is, I'm not a scientist. My original point was antibody tests were not accurate, and many people who had the virus test negative as a result. This means that they're not a good measure of seroprevalence.

24-06-2020 02:03PM

ACitizenErased wrote: »

There's literally hundreds of accounts of people who have had COVID getting negative antibody tests. .

From your link to the ECDC:

Most persons infected with SARS-CoV-2 display an antibody response between day 10 and day 21 after infection. Detection in mild cases can take longer time (four weeks or more) and in a small number of cases antibodies (i.e., IgM, IgG) are not detected at all (at least during the studies’ time scale). Based on the currently available data, the IgM and IgG antibodies to SARS-CoV-2 develop between 6–15 days post disease onset [239-244]. The median seroconversion time for total antibodies, IgM and then IgG were day-11, day-12 and day-14 post symptom onset, respectively. The presence of antibodies was detected in <40% among patients within 1 week from onset, and rapidly increased to 100% (total antibodies), 94.3% (IgM) and 79.8% (IgG) from day-15 after onset [245].

is_that_so · 24-06-2020 02:04PM

ACitizenErased wrote: »

I don't know what the alternative is, I'm not a scientist. My original point was antibody tests were not accurate, and many people who had the virus test negative as a result. This means that they're not a good measure of seroprevalence.

I don't think they've claimed that at all. The suggestions is T-cells may also be a factor worth looking at.

ACitizenErased · 24-06-2020 02:05PM

Deleted User wrote: »

From your link to the ECDC:

The links were not related to that sentence, the links related to the t-cell response. I'm not sure why you're debating the fact that antibody tests are not accurate?

ACitizenErased · 24-06-2020 02:08PM

is_that_so wrote: »

I don't think they've claimed that at all. The suggestions is T-cells may also be a factor worth looking at.

Which antibody tests don't do.
https://www.reddit.com/r/COVID19/comments/hdxwf5/intrafamilial_exposure_to_sarscov2_induces/
"This study certainly shows that many of the commercial antibody tests are missing people who were exposed. The Roche, Abbott, and Euroimmun tests, in particular, seem like serial offenders here. We don't know whether this is a meaningful proportion etc etc but it's worth investigating. You should probably consider the results of a well-randomized survey (like Spain) the floor at this point, but we don't know how high the ceiling goes - it might be already accounted for in sensitivity adjustments or it might increase implied actual exposure by a significant amount."

ShyMets · 24-06-2020 02:14PM

s1ippy wrote: »

It is most assuredly not that, and I suspect you know it's not, so please stop.

I find it odd that someone would come in here looking for positive news. It's a virus that kills people, we're dealing in least worst case scenarios. Maybe there should be two threads. I'm absolutely sick to the gills of reading about "doom-mongers" and people demanding positivity. The positive things in my life are outside of this virus so I look to them to be uplifted. I look to this thread for data.

Compliance with current restrictions in Ireland down by a fifth in comparison with April.

I find that article interesting because of people worrying about their workplaces.

In two of my three jobs that remain, I have serious issues with the PPE situation. One is insisting on a doctor's note if you wish to wear a mask, the other is only permitting visors even with a doctor's note.

They have given their rationale which, without giving away too many details about the nature of the work, has no basis in science. I have outlined this to them and will not be returning to this work until I have permission to use a mask. My colleagues who are not high risk have also raised this in solidarity with those of us who are vulnerable, which was totally unexpected and has been really heartening to see.

Those employers both have their own opinion about the whole thing, they want everything to just go back to normal. One in particular seems to be feeling like they don't have the level of control over their staff that they used to and has really upped their game, calling and emailing and making totally unreasonable demands of our time outside of working hours. I hope this whole situation, where people are more regularly asking for their views, health and time to be respected, makes a lot of bosses take a good hard look at themselves. They might even develop some empathy.

I'm obviously talking about industries where contracts are secure, so I have huge sympathy for workers who can be fired for raising concerns they have. I would highly recommend anyone who is not in a union to join one for their line of work. Nobody should be without one in these times.

Its not about looking for positive news as such. As you rightly point out we're in the middle of a Global Pandemic which has taken far too many lives.

Many of us are fearful. The future is very uncertain. But there are some positive stories out there, particularly around countries which have largely suppressed the virus.

Personally I think its no harm highlighting those, if only to shed some hope on this awful situation

ACitizenErased · 24-06-2020 02:18PM

The US state of Arizona had a 33% positivity rate for tests on Tuesday. 3600 out of 10730 tests came back positive. Insane numbers, it's getting worse over there.

24-06-2020 02:19PM

ACitizenErased wrote: »

Which antibody tests don't do.
https://www.reddit.com/r/COVID19/comments/hdxwf5/intrafamilial_exposure_to_sarscov2_induces/
"This study certainly shows that many of the commercial antibody tests are missing people who were exposed. The Roche, Abbott, and Euroimmun tests, in particular, seem like serial offenders here. We don't know whether this is a meaningful proportion etc etc but it's worth investigating. You should probably consider the results of a well-randomized survey (like Spain) the floor at this point, but we don't know how high the ceiling goes - it might be already accounted for in sensitivity adjustments or it might increase implied actual exposure by a significant amount."

I am very dubious about that study, all index cases had antibodies but none of the household cases? And it was a very small sample size. We will see once its peer reviewed but am prepared to be educated as to why it is so significant

caveat emptor · 24-06-2020 02:20PM

If you have booked your summer holiday don't click the video. Ignorance is bliss.
Trouble with cough droplets is that they are effectively invisible. Doesn't mean they are not there. Should be grand.

https://twitter.com/Droit_IA/status/1255581175399227395?s=20

https://nypost.com/2020/04/30/visualization-shows-droplets-from-one-cough-infecting-large-number-of-passengers/

Researchers found that passengers sitting with a SARS patient in a seven-row section of a Boeing 767 would have a one-in-three chance of getting sick from a 5-hour flight. On a shorter 737 flight, the risk was one in five. But they also discovered that changing the ventilation system — for example, by having airflow into the cabin from near the floor rather than from above — would cut the risk by half or more.

It’s worth noting that the Purdue study assumed the virus that caused SARS could stay airborne for long periods, which is different from what the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) says is typically occurring with the novel coronavirus.

is_that_so · 24-06-2020 02:22PM

ACitizenErased wrote: »

Which antibody tests don't do.
https://www.reddit.com/r/COVID19/comments/hdxwf5/intrafamilial_exposure_to_sarscov2_induces/
"This study certainly shows that many of the commercial antibody tests are missing people who were exposed. The Roche, Abbott, and Euroimmun tests, in particular, seem like serial offenders here. We don't know whether this is a meaningful proportion etc etc but it's worth investigating. You should probably consider the results of a well-randomized survey (like Spain) the floor at this point, but we don't know how high the ceiling goes - it might be already accounted for in sensitivity adjustments or it might increase implied actual exposure by a significant amount."

I'm not sure that calling tests serial offenders is good science. It's all couched in but we don't know how much of an issue this is.

ACitizenErased · 24-06-2020 02:25PM

is_that_so wrote: »

I'm not sure that calling tests serial offenders is good science. It's all couched in in but we don't know how much of an issue this is.

It's a corollary based on the fact that even if people don't show seropositivity in antibody testing, they still could've had COVID but their immune system cleared it without needing to create antibodies. Their T cells did it instead. Basically, antibodies =/= having had COVID, if the study proves true.

owlbethere · 24-06-2020 02:26PM

wadacrack wrote: »

How is that funny?

I suppose it was more ironic type of funny. We used meet and chat in the pub and there we were out trying to get fit on a Saturday night.

Martina1991 · 24-06-2020 02:27PM

ACitizenErased wrote:

I posted links to a new study yesterday. Antibody tests donâ€™t pick up t-cell response, which is exactly what COVID enacts in many individuals. People who have had COVID get negative antibody results exactly for this reason. Check out the â€œhave you been testedâ€ thread in the forum.

They had interesting findings but that study only had 17 participants and only 6 of whom had a t cell response but no antibodies. Six people from a study in another country is not a significant number to conclude that we are "missing mass amounts of the population".

The technology and equipment they used is also much more complex than antibody assays. These are not routinely in use in many hospital labs.
To develop and mass produce an assay like that would cost a fortune and take a long time.

You said that antibody tests are "completely inaccurate". The lack of antibodies present in an individual doesnt mean the tests themselves arent accurate.

Manufactures are constantly working to improve the specificity and sensitivity of their assays. Even though Covid antibody tests have been rushed to production, they will become more robust over time. The actual assays themselves that have been approved for national use will be very accurate.

hmmm · 24-06-2020 02:28PM

Deleted User wrote: »

I am very dubious about that study, all index cases had antibodies but none of the household cases? And it was a very small sample size. We will see once its peer reviewed but am prepared to be educated as to why it is so significant

It's significant because the "herd immunity is achievable" crowd have jumped on this one study, out of the thousands of studies, as evidence for their thesis. And the "Tee Sell" is their new catch-all answer to anyone who suggests we don't just let this thing rip through the population.

I'm not saying the study is wrong

, but there is a very hasty jump to conclusions based on one small non peer-reviewed study.

ShyMets · 24-06-2020 02:30PM

ACitizenErased wrote: »

The US state of Arizona had a 33% positivity rate for tests on Tuesday. 3600 out of 10730 tests came back positive. Insane numbers, it's getting worse over there.

Very scary. In some states It looks like its out of control. Well done President Trump

Away With The Fairies · 24-06-2020 02:38PM

Drumpot wrote: »

I take zinc and magnesium along with VIT C just to be sure. I appreciate not everybody needs these tablets , it’s just it would be nice if things we can do were being discussed publicly instead of scaremongering stories that are not overly helpful.

I even heard one doctor (on medcram) talk about the correlation between hot/cold showers and their benefits. I think it was from a study on why Scandinavian countries didn’t get it so bad. He has a cold and hot shower every day.

It’s a shame there isn’t more conhesive research (you have to search it out) on these sort of things. The VIT D suggestion could of been made in January when I first heard it from Dr John who said anybody in medicine knows that VIT D deficiency is not good when it comes to virus’s. And 6 months on there’s sort of a communication deficiency of this very fact. When I say it to friend or family they haven’t a clue what I’m talking about.

Here's an interesting read that mentions other vitamins and supplements that can help.

I'm taking vitamin d, c, b vitamins, magnesium, zinc, fish oil, probiotics and bromelain.

is_that_so · 24-06-2020 02:38PM

ACitizenErased wrote: »

It's a corollary based on the fact that even if people don't show seropositivity in antibody testing, they still could've had COVID but their immune system cleared it without needing to create antibodies. Their T cells did it instead. Basically, antibodies =/= having had COVID, if the study proves true.

It's the "if" part of it but that doesn't seem to have stopped them claiming things as true.

24-06-2020 02:49PM

caveat emptor wrote: »

If you have booked your summer holiday don't click the video. Ignorance is bliss.

Thanks, I won’t

Renjit · 24-06-2020 02:54PM

Away With The Fairies wrote: »

Here's an interesting read that mentions other vitamins and supplements that can help.

I'm taking vitamin d, c, b vitamins, magnesium, zinc, fish oil, probiotics and bromelain.

Bolus dose wont help. You have to take it regularly to build up any deficiency. And those who are not deficient will likely not see much benefit.

Martina1991 · 24-06-2020 03:06PM

ACitizenErased wrote:

The antibody tests do not measure the t-cell response.

"Existing tests detect whether a persons blood contains antibodies that bind to either the whole inactivated virus, a protein from its shell, or the spike protein that gives SARS-CoV-2 its characteristic crown-like structure.

From those links you posted, the first one stated "T cell response against SARS-COV-2 have been characterised and correlate well with IgG and IgA antibody titres in Covid patients....It is currently unknown whether antibody responses or T celm responses confer immunity".

The second said "both studies also found some people never infected with SARS-COV-2 had these (T cell) cellular defenses most likely because they were previously infected with other coronaviruses."
That implies that if a test were to assess the T cell response to SARS-COV-2 then there could be a lot of false positives.

The third link made similar points to those in the second link. They also said " Their (T cell) exact role in Covid19 is still unknown".

snotboogie · 24-06-2020 03:08PM

While the hopes of this virus dying off or slowing down to the point of life returning to normal seem to be worse than I first expected, the progress on a vaccine seems to be a lot better than I first expected. There are numerous promising trials and a real chance something will hit the market by early 2021 and then be rolled out by the end of that year. Considering the average vaccine takes 10 years to develop that would be one of the greatest achievements in human history.

I think best case scenario we see a New Zealand like normalcy across the EU where we get back to 60%-70% of where we were in 2019 by Q4 of this year and then slowly ramp up to 100% throughout 2021 when a vaccine comes out. There should be mandatory enforced quarantines of two weeks from those traveling outside of the EU/Schengen/UK (like we are seeing throughout Asia now). Letting people in without a quarantine from anywhere in the Americas over the next 6 months at least would be madness.

wadacrack · 24-06-2020 03:14PM

https://twitter.com/McDonnellDan/status/1275808449104838658

MerlinSouthDub · 24-06-2020 03:29PM

The number of test referrals shows a big spike yesterday:

https://www.hse.ie/eng/services/news/newsfeatures/covid19-updates/integrated-information-service-testing-and-contact-tracing-dashboard-24-june-2020.pdf

I'm hoping it's some kind of data error, hard to understand why there would be such a big jump.

Rob A. Bank · 24-06-2020 03:30PM

snotboogie wrote: »

Letting people in without a quarantine from anywhere in the Americas over the next 6 months at least would be madness.

Agreed... The USAs response to the pandemic is certainly a clusterf*ck and no evidence of a end in sight yet. The East coast states have a grip on the virus spread but it is running wild in many other southern and western states.

The former Food and Drug Administration Commissioner Dr. Scott Gottlieb told CNBC that the daily new cases of coronavirus will surpass the country’s first peak in April.

106588906-1593003372339-20200624_US_cases_area_by_state.png?v=1593003383&w=740&h=443

106588906-1593003372339-20200624_US_cases_area_by_state.png?v=1593003383&w=740&h=443

Kermit.de.frog · 24-06-2020 03:31PM

Florida reports 5,511 new cases. New record.

The last record a couple of days a go was 4,049.

Out of control spread.

Covid19 Part XVIII-25,473 in ROI(1,736 deaths) 5,760 in NI (551 deaths)(30/06)Read OP

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