Covid19 Part XVIII-25,473 in ROI(1,736 deaths) 5,760 in NI (551 deaths)(30/06)Read OP

Boggles wrote: »

They did handle the first wave the best and will handle the second wave the best and 3rd, 4th etc.

Subsequent waves don't have to be devastating, it's about managing them.

The BBC did a follow up piece of testing and tracing in South Korea.

It was like an episode of 24.

They'll be grand.

No doubt they will, though they forecast it would happen in autumn\winter rather than summer.

But if best in class can suffer a second wave, so soon after the first, it doesn't hold out much hope for the messers down the back.

kenmc wrote: »

No doubt they will, though they forecast it would happen in autumn\winter rather than summer.

But if best in class can suffer a second wave, so soon after the first, it doesn't hold out much hope for the messers down the back.

It's not seasonal yet.

It's mid 30s in Florida at the moment, all though they are heading for second spike not second wave.

It's more timing of first wave in Europe that the 2nd one will coincide with Autumn / Winter which could be made worse by the various other factors at play.

It would appear the virus takes 6-12 weeks to swirl and reemerge again and not the time frames we were modelling for.

So 2-3 months of unrestricted air travel within the EU, Mid September or Early October could see the 2nd wave, of course that could be sooner.

Again though a second wave does not have to be devastating.

But further lockdowns in Europe are most certainly a potential reality, no country will tolerate their emergency care collapsing (again in some circumstances).

Drumpot wrote: »

Sort of shows the restrictions and major issues of globalisation.

Any country that has more autonomy (not politically tied either) and flexibility in what it chooses to do stands a much better chance over the coming years. That or a country that has a responsible population who have the capacity to make some sacrifices for the greater good.

People in western democracy’s can’t even spend a few weeks binge watching TV without complaining. Makes me think of Chernobyl which comes to mind as it’s been recently revisited in that brilliant TV show. It was almost unbelievable watching normal joe soaps putting their own lives on the line for the greater good. People putting mother Russia as the most important thing to protect. In one sense it was tragic and the political manipulation behind it is of course wrong. But at its core it was normal people coming together in a tragedy to do what had to be done to prevent the tragedy being worse for far more people.

This isnt happening in modern Western democracies because they don’t understand the concept of collective responsibility for the greater good. We have to be forced to do what’s in the interest of everybody and quite often a significant proportion are kicking and screaming against it.

The society we inhabit today is also dominated by an approach to life which conflicts with the very notion of a lockdown, and discourages a sedentary existence. We are encouraged to travel the world and more people have the chance to do so than ever before (not a bad thing in and of itself, but it does lead to a host of other problems). As obesity rates continue to rise we are encouraged to be more outdoorsy, and often involves social interaction through fitness classes, jogging groups etc. But perhaps most significantly (and tbh this might explain why it has proven so difficult), there has been a consistent theme promoted over the past few decades, especially as technology replaces other means of communication, about the evil of spending your waking hours indoors, people locking themselves away, "staring at a screen all day" etc.

Discarding that, there is a fundamental notion in society, especially more community-based societies like in Ireland, of companionship, intimacy with your friends and family, checking in on people regularly. Our traditions, even funerals, are extremely social occassions and the social support they provide to some members of the community is crucial, and isn't some debauched, amoral hedonism unique to modern society.

There is an element that has emerged with this lockdown (no doubt leading anti-social existences before this anyway) who seem to think that because other people may have small hiccups in suddenly adjusting to a life of complete confinement at home, isolated from their loved ones or cut off from their livelihoods for months at least, that there is something wrong with them. It was summed up for me when a number of freaks in newspaper comment sections were dehumanising people for attending funerals. Not only are these people completely lacking in sympathy (no matter how smugly they dress themselves up in faux concern for public health), they are utterly misanthropic, coming out with sweeping statements like "they deserve what's coming" etc.

Rather than attacking people for being human, or for having trouble adjusting to an existence that goes against everything they are used to, or disregarding the thousands of personal reasons that get ignored when discussing lockdown-breakers, maybe a bit more sympathy wouldn't go amiss. Maybe the criticism should be targetted at the callous actions of government leaders like Bolsonaro or Trump wilfully misinforming the public and encouraging counter-productive measures, not your next door neighbour wanting to see their partner after months of separation or a child forgetting to socially distance with their friends in the playground.

ShyMets wrote: »

A second wave may happen. It probably will in some shape or form. But I believe that based our experience of the first wave we will handle it better.

How did we handle the first wave?

We locked down for 3 months. That was our experience, the majority of the populous confined to 2km then 5km, 20km, then their county.

We also wont he lotto with the weather, Mediterranean climate for 10 weeks.

No, the 2nd wave will be a completely different kettle of fish. Managing the pandemic whilst not locking down, we have no experience of that.

We won't be starting from scratch RE Testing and PPE and hopefully we will shield the vulnerable far better this time, also one would hope one of the trialed treatments will be bare fruit and can be scaled up.

A lot to be positive about, on the other hand there is no published plans and basically the HSE are in charge of it.

They are the ones that come out every January and say the trolley crisis is down to the Flu and they didn't see it coming, all though the flu comes every year and you can basically set your watch by it.

Hector Savage wrote: »

Part of Germany back in lockdown now .... christ this will go on and on and on and on and on and on and on and on........

Local lockdown. The exact same as you'll see anywhere if theres spikes in certain areas

Away With The Fairies wrote: »

There will be excuses telling you that it's not a second wave because of positivity and all that.

well 17 cases is hardly a wave now is it?