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Property Market 2020

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    #9152
    ELM327
    Registered Users Posts: 21,639 ✭✭✭✭ELM327


    Investment properties and luxury properties a bit further from Dublin (due to increase in WFH) will go up in price IMO as a result of this.
    The former as investors need places to put cash if they missed the drop and bubble on stocks, the latter as folks can move further afield and no longer need to live in "TOWN"


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    #9153
    Villa05
    Registered Users Posts: 4,528 ✭✭✭Villa05


    awec wrote:
    People understand that the reason repossession is so difficult here is because governments know that in the case of repossession the burden falls from the banks to the taxpayer, and it’s not a burden that any recent government particularly wants to take on, right?


    You do know that all these elephants in the room that we are throwing a carpet over will at some point wake up (at the same time) and trample us.

    We should be sorting out these issues in the good times, leaving them to when the bad times come again will destroy us all.


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    #9154
    OwlsZat
    Registered Users Posts: 1,510 ✭✭✭OwlsZat


    GocRh wrote: »
    Would REITs continue to expand their portfolio in Dublin, given the economic uncertainties lying ahead?

    I'd reckon REITs will start to put on hold some larger acquisitions - unless the Government and councils continue to snap up developments for social housing directly from a REIT (which in my opinion is a very poor long term strategy).

    Commercial property funds have already seen significant impacts in rent collection:
    https://www.irishtimes.com/business/commercial-property/rent-collections-in-aviva-property-funds-as-low-as-60-amid-covid-19-1.4259543

    REITs where they have bought land and got planning will continue those projects to recoup costs. Will they look for planning on new sites and continue to build build-to-rent apartments? I doubt they will, more likely they will start selling apartments in the face of holiday and long term rental market weakness.
    Cuddlesworth wrote: »
    I think property prices rising fast during a global recession sounds very like us, this will be a interesting year for the residential property market.

    Commercial is gone though, it was on its legs towards the end of last year before any of this started.

    The central bank report linked a few pages back spelt out how we are more exposed than 90% of the EU countries to the impending commercial property collapse. David McW was sounding the alarm on this long ago when "smart money" was leaving the market and commercial rents were 3X that of Barcelona. We love boom-bust economics in Ireland.


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    #9155
    OwlsZat
    Registered Users Posts: 1,510 ✭✭✭OwlsZat


    The_Conductor wrote: »
    There is a cool 120 billion sitting on deposit in Irish financial institutions.
    Its not earning any interest (and in some cases, is actually loosing nominal value when fees are factored into the equation).
    People are looking for other places to drop their cash.
    There is still a constraint in the housing sector here- it might not be as tight as it once was- but it is still constrained.

    People are looking for other places to put their money- and there are lots of people out there with plenty of cold hard cash.

    That's why things like https://invest.propertybridges.com/ will become the most logical thing to do. Would have expected it to be a state backed solution if FG hadn't set the new Government housing policy.


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    #9156
    awec
    Administrators Posts: 53,509 Admin ✭✭✭✭✭awec


    Villa05 wrote: »
    You do know that all these elephants in the room that we are throwing a carpet over will at some point wake up (at the same time) and trample us.

    We should be sorting out these issues in the good times, leaving them to when the bad times come again will destroy us all.

    I don't disagree.

    But the governments since the last crash have been unable to deal with the demand for social housing. They were never going to take steps that would make that list even longer, especially not when the solution involves empowering banks to reclaim homes. Terrible politics.


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    #9157
    lastusername
    Registered Users Posts: 338 ✭✭lastusername


    GocRh wrote: »
    Also worth considering the price range of the properties that are seeing significant bids over asking - perhaps properties on the higher end (i.e. over 450k) will likely be the least affected by COVID as bidders are higher earners and not as likely to have been financially affected by COVID?

    Yep, I reckon so and certain areas will always command a premium or be higher-priced.


    GocRh wrote: »
    Anyone following apartment prices in Dublin? I'd reckon apartments under 350k would see some stagnation as it's more likely that buyers would be first time buyers (not a cash buyer), and more likely to be employed in industries that were impacted by COVID?


    Not sure on apartment prices but I reckon they will stay around the same. I think a lot of people out there will have realised they want a house vs an apartment due to all the time spent at home the last while, so it may just be another factor leading to higher house prices over the next couple of years at least.


    I don't see the connection between FTBs and those more likely to be in more Covid-affected industries though, sure anyone can be working in tourism or hospitality, etc.


    Also, cash buyers can be first-time buyers too :)


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    #9158
    Cuddlesworth
    Registered Users Posts: 13,983 ✭✭✭✭Cuddlesworth


    OwlsZat wrote: »
    The central bank report linked a few pages back spelt out how we are more exposed than 90% of the EU countries to the impending commercial property collapse. David McW was sounding the alarm on this long ago when "smart money" was leaving the market and commercial rents were 3X that of Barcelona. We love boom-bust economics in Ireland.

    I've always understood that commercial rent is always relative to the income that can be made from the premises. So I get the figure that 90% of restaurants can't remain open with 2m restrictions in Ireland, but from what I understand rent is usually the main contributory factor in that. So it makes sense that commercial rents will end up taking that hit. It always annoyed me to go to other citys in Europe and see bars and restaurants where the customers are not slammed in like sardines, yet its accepted here.


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    #9159
    Marise
    Registered Users Posts: 2 ✭Marise


    lastusername wrote: »
    Yep, I reckon so and certain areas will always command a premium or be higher-priced.






    Not sure on apartment prices but I reckon they will stay around the same. I think a lot of people out there will have realised they want a house vs an apartment due to all the time spent at home the last while, so it may just be another factor leading to higher house prices over the next couple of years at least.


    I don't see the connection between FTBs and those more likely to be in more Covid-affected industries though, sure anyone can be working in tourism or hospitality, etc.


    Also, cash buyers can be first-time buyers too :)

    Prior to COVID we were also looking to likely be buying an apartment as FTB for cash. After the the experience of lockdown and being immunocompromised on top of it, I am willing to sacrifice other things, in order to buy a house (although we currently rent a nice quite spacious apartment).

    Because I am no longer viewing those can't comment on the sale prices or bids, but the asking prices seem to have gone down.


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    #9160
    GocRh
    Registered Users Posts: 252 ✭✭GocRh


    lastusername wrote: »

    I don't see the connection between FTBs and those more likely to be in more Covid-affected industries though, sure anyone can be working in tourism or hospitality, etc.


    Also, cash buyers can be first-time buyers too :)


    I don't have any figures to back this up, but I'd reckon a not insignificant cohort of FTBs buying apartments under 350k will be couples, earning each around 40-50k (slightly over industrial earning average). I suppose a few, even if not directly employed in tourism or hospitality, may be on industries that are not doing that great. Factoring all that in, I do think that once the pent up demand dries up, apartments in this price range will be difficult to sell.


    Yes, cash buyers can be FTBs, but I think that we can all agree that's a tiny proportion of FTBs :) Most FTBs struggle to save for a deposit while paying rent.


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    #9161
    cnocbui
    Registered Users Posts: 19,908 ✭✭✭✭cnocbui


    GocRh wrote: »
    I don't have any figures to back this up, but I'd reckon a not insignificant cohort of FTBs buying apartments under 350k will be couples, earning each around 40-50k (slightly over industrial earning average). I suppose a few, even if not directly employed in tourism or hospitality, may be on industries that are not doing that great. Factoring all that in, I do think that once the pent up demand dries up, apartments in this price range will be difficult to sell.


    Yes, cash buyers can be FTBs, but I think that we can all agree that's a tiny proportion of FTBs :) Most FTBs struggle to even get a deposit when paying rent.

    Cash buyers may or may not be a small fraction of FTBs, but they are absolutely not a small fraction of buyers in total. They can typically account for 50% of sales of residential properties and it's been as high as 60%.


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    #9162
    GocRh
    Registered Users Posts: 252 ✭✭GocRh


    cnocbui wrote: »
    Cash buyers may or may not be a small fraction of FTBs, but they are absolutely not a small fraction of buyers in total. They can typically account for 50% of sales of residential properties and it's been as high as 60%.


    Did a quick search, back in 2016 according to Savills cash buyers accounted for 10% of FTBs (link below).

    I'd imagine this number to be now much lower for apartments in Dublin priced around 350k (which was the segment I was referring to). Volume of transactions have also gone up recently and so did mortgage approval rates, which should bring the overall cash buyer numbers down.



    https://www.irishtimes.com/business/personal-finance/housing-who-are-the-cash-buyers-and-how-come-there-s-so-many-of-them-1.3224402


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    #9163
    Mike3287
    Closed Accounts Posts: 379 ✭✭Mike3287


    Cuddlesworth wrote: »
    I think property prices rising fast during a global recession sounds very like us, this will be a interesting year for the residential property market.

    Commercial is gone though, it was on its legs towards the end of last year before any of this started.

    Madness really, can't see it lasting.

    Commerical gone you look you say and Tourism is gone, which is 10%+ of our gdp when you include indirect

    Without Tourism we are done


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    #9164
    JimmyVik
    Registered Users Posts: 5,368 ✭✭✭JimmyVik


    GocRh wrote: »
    Did a quick search, back in 2016 according to Savills cash buyers accounted for 10% of FTBs (link below).

    I'd imagine this number to be now much lower for apartments in Dublin priced around 350k (which was the segment I was referring to). Volume of transactions have also gone up recently and so did mortgage approval rates, which should bring the overall cash buyer numbers down.



    https://www.irishtimes.com/business/personal-finance/housing-who-are-the-cash-buyers-and-how-come-there-s-so-many-of-them-1.3224402


    I think it will be much higher for apartments going forward.


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    #9165
    19233974
    Registered Users Posts: 120 ✭✭19233974


    It will be interesting to see if the big international investors actually start to sell off some of the rental stock. There is so many of those apartments on daft, together with tons of student accommodation.

    Would be interesting to see how long they would sit on them as they have done previously, but a different prospect now economically post - covid


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    #9166
    OwlsZat
    Registered Users Posts: 1,510 ✭✭✭OwlsZat


    19233974 wrote: »
    It will be interesting to see if the big international investors actually start to sell off some of the rental stock. There is so many of those apartments on daft, together with tons of student accommodation.

    Would be interesting to see how long they would sit on them as they have done previously, but a different prospect now economically post - covid

    It will depend on how long they can keep liquid. Didn't they already suspend withdrawals for some period of time? I don't imagine they can legally keep that stance up too long.


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    #9167
    GreeBo
    Registered Users Posts: 27,121 ✭✭✭✭GreeBo


    Springy Turf wrote: »
    A 1300+ mortgage is a reality for most people buying in Dublin.

    1300 and the rest!


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    #9168
    The_Conductor
    Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 32,279 Mod ✭✭✭✭The_Conductor


    GocRh wrote: »
    https://www.irishtimes.com/business/personal-finance/housing-who-are-the-cash-buyers-and-how-come-there-s-so-many-of-them-1.3224402
    If they only accounted for about a fifth of the market or so, as was typically the case, it may not be so much of an issue, but figures show that more than five in every 10 purchases in the residential property market is by a cash buyer.

    image.png


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    #9169
    c.p.w.g.w
    Registered Users Posts: 4,994 ✭✭✭c.p.w.g.w


    Just doing my usual looking around on daft/myhome...There is a serious amount of houses listed for high enough prices that need a whole lot of work...

    My sisters estate, has a house got sale agreed for €185,000...genuinely reckon it needs €25,000 minimum and that's not including fixing the floor plan it has 2 rooms on the ground-floor without windows or skylight...

    My mates just closed a purchase for €290,000 ish...the amount of work needed is crazy, cracked underfloor pipping, roofing issues...and the location is a very busy road and the main road into the nearest city/town is always busy...All of these were known issues too...

    Then i saw a house in similar condition to my mates, a bit bigger, more land and same distance for same town/city with less traffic problems for €215,000...

    Its all very strange altogether...all those are in Munster area


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    #9170
    JimmyVik
    Registered Users Posts: 5,368 ✭✭✭JimmyVik


    19233974 wrote: »
    It will be interesting to see if the big international investors actually start to sell off some of the rental stock. There is so many of those apartments on daft, together with tons of student accommodation.

    Would be interesting to see how long they would sit on them as they have done previously, but a different prospect now economically post - covid


    If any do sell them it will probably be to another big international investor.
    They are unlikely to sell individual apartments.


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    #9171
    Ush1
    Registered Users Posts: 11,465 ✭✭✭✭Ush1


    Friend of mine just went sale agreed. Asking was 460k, his first bid was 425k and they accepted.


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    #9172
    19233974
    Registered Users Posts: 120 ✭✭19233974


    JimmyVik wrote: »
    If any do sell them it will probably be to another big international investor.
    They are unlikely to sell individual apartments.

    that would be incredibly frustrating for people who would like to buy a new build apt as opposed to the frankly sh*te apartment stock thats for sale in dublin.

    What was it? 93% of new build apartments owned by reits in the last 3 year, bounced around international investors while irish citizens are stuck in a perpetual rental trap.

    they really need to sort that out (and i understand they are required to an extent to bring new stock to the market, but there has to be some balance)


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    #9173
    jrosen
    Registered Users Posts: 1,629 ✭✭✭jrosen


    c.p.w.g.w wrote: »
    Just doing my usual looking around on daft/myhome...There is a serious amount of houses listed for high enough prices that need a whole lot of work...

    My sisters estate, has a house got sale agreed for €185,000...genuinely reckon it needs €25,000 minimum and that's not including fixing the floor plan it has 2 rooms on the ground-floor without windows or skylight...

    My mates just closed a purchase for €290,000 ish...the amount of work needed is crazy, cracked underfloor pipping, roofing issues...and the location is a very busy road and the main road into the nearest city/town is always busy...All of these were known issues too...

    Then i saw a house in similar condition to my mates, a bit bigger, more land and same distance for same town/city with less traffic problems for €215,000...

    Its all very strange altogether...all those are in Munster area

    We found the same when we were looking. Spent a long time really hoping to buy an older house, excited at the prospect of a renovation but in the end we couldn't afford too. Our budget was high but the properties we looked at were all pushing 425k and needed insulation, new flooring, kitchen, bathrooms, doors, windows.


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    #9174
    JimmyVik
    Registered Users Posts: 5,368 ✭✭✭JimmyVik


    19233974 wrote: »
    that would be incredibly frustrating for people who would like to buy a new build apt as opposed to the frankly sh*te apartment stock thats for sale in dublin.

    What was it? 93% of new build apartments owned by reits in the last 3 year, bounced around international investors while irish citizens are stuck in a perpetual rental trap.

    they really need to sort that out (and i understand they are required to an extent to bring new stock to the market, but there has to be some balance)


    Its woprse than that. The councils and Reits are making deals to lease whole blocks before they even start building them. Normal buyers cannot get a sniff.


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    #9175
    JimmyVik
    Registered Users Posts: 5,368 ✭✭✭JimmyVik


    jrosen wrote: »
    We found the same when we were looking. Spent a long time really hoping to buy an older house, excited at the prospect of a renovation but in the end we couldn't afford too. Our budget was high but the properties we looked at were all pushing 425k and needed insulation, new flooring, kitchen, bathrooms, doors, windows.


    My old man said to me.

    "Back in my day we had no floor or paint or grass when we bought houses. People lived in them for years as we whipped them into shape. Nowadays people want everything on day. Notions."

    Id like a walk in with nothing to do myself.


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    #9176
    neutral guy
    Closed Accounts Posts: 402 ✭✭neutral guy


    The_Conductor wrote: »
    There is a cool 120 billion sitting on deposit in Irish financial institutions.
    Its not earning any interest (and in some cases, is actually loosing nominal value when fees are factored into the equation).
    People are looking for other places to drop their cash.
    There is still a constraint in the housing sector here- it might not be as tight as it once was- but it is still constrained.

    People are looking for other places to put their money- and there are lots of people out there with plenty of cold hard cash.

    Possibly,possibly there will be high tax on deposit,somebody investing in gold trying avoid inflation,somebody investing to property for same reason.Who knows but all this more exception than rule because most people does not have money pay the bills .


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    #9177
    Markitron
    Registered Users Posts: 3,157 ✭✭✭Markitron


    JimmyVik wrote: »
    My old man said to me.

    "Back in my day we had no floor or paint or grass when we bought houses. People lived in them for years as we whipped them into shape. Nowadays people want everything on day. Notions."

    Id like a walk in with nothing to do myself.

    With what they cost now vs then, who could blame you?


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    #9178
    cnocbui
    Registered Users Posts: 19,908 ✭✭✭✭cnocbui


    JimmyVik wrote: »
    My old man said to me.

    "Back in my day we had no floor or paint or grass when we bought houses. People lived in them for years as we whipped them into shape. Nowadays people want everything on day. Notions."

    Id like a walk in with nothing to do myself.

    If you can afford it, fair play.

    My current house I bought in builders finish condition and finished off myself. Moved in after 7 months of work and then put in more work to finish off the rooms that hadn't been finished. Then more work and money to turn the external ravaged landscape into a lawn and garden, replace the rough gravel with tarmac and paving.

    No way could I have afforded to purchase the finished product in one hit.


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    #9179
    c.p.w.g.w
    Registered Users Posts: 4,994 ✭✭✭c.p.w.g.w


    jrosen wrote: »
    We found the same when we were looking. Spent a long time really hoping to buy an older house, excited at the prospect of a renovation but in the end we couldn't afford too. Our budget was high but the properties we looked at were all pushing 425k and needed insulation, new flooring, kitchen, bathrooms, doors, windows.

    My mates house needed all new windows, triple glazed due to how busy the road was...i don't know how much they paid but I pretty certain triple glazing is fcuking expensive


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    #9180
    TheSheriff
    Registered Users Posts: 1,108 ✭✭✭TheSheriff


    Ush1 wrote: »
    Friend of mine just went sale agreed. Asking was 460k, his first bid was 425k and they accepted.

    Great for your friend! Can you provide an info on general area of the house? Condition etc (If you know it...)


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    #9181
    neutral guy
    Closed Accounts Posts: 402 ✭✭neutral guy


    TheSheriff wrote: »
    Great for your friend! Can you provide an info on general area of the house? Condition etc (If you know it...)
    Every person has own look and opinion about condition of the house.
    For some people kitchen could be too old or attic not insulated for some people everything has to be brand new with solar panels on roof and TV on wall.
    For me could be nothing at all I am not gonna pay for things which overpriced already ,the price and area is only things I wish to pay.


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