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Property Market 2020

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    #9062
    Reversal
    Registered Users Posts: 402 ✭✭Reversal


    Irish property funds more leveraged than 90% of similar operations elsewhere in Europe. The CB seems to think this poses a major threat to crashing the market. They reckon a 15% drop will be enough to trigger fire sales.

    https://www.irishtimes.com/business/commercial-property/central-bank-warns-of-covid-19-risks-to-property-market-1.4280680%3fmode=amp


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    #9063
    The_Conductor
    Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 32,280 Mod ✭✭✭✭The_Conductor


    kippy wrote: »
    Let's be straight about this BOI nor any bank will take a long time to repay the help they got from the state. People need to remember this.

    BOI had the piss taken out of them by AIB (and other lending institutions- esp. Anglo- over how conservative they were with their lending criteria. In practice this meant when the bottom fell out of the market- they were the bank in least difficulty- and the only one of the pillar banks in Ireland that remained in majority private ownership.

    BOI raised additional shareholder funds in an expeditious manner and repaid the money invested into them (4.7billion). The government still hold 14% of the ordinary shares in Bank of Ireland- with a market value of > 1.1 billion. This will be pure profit when they eventually dispose of them.

    AIB/INS etc were an entirely different story (as were the other Irish lenders)- and unfortunately, the full picture of precisely how they ended up in the position they were in, may never enter the public arena.

    kippy wrote: »
    The state directly injected monies into the bank in return for a share in the bank. That was one form of support.

    Which in the case of BOI- the state continues to hold 14% of the ordinary shares and despite a market price of >1.1 billion, has elected to continue to hold the shares.

    kippy wrote: »
    The second form, which many seem to have forgotten at this point was through NAMA..NAMA took over massive amounts of bad debt that was on the banks books. The banks would not have survived without the indirect support from NAMA.

    NAMA bought the assets from BOI and other lenders at a staggering discount to book value (at an average of 41c in the Euro). This was why the banks ended up having to be recapitalised. Participation was non-optional- it was mandated that all loans with a facebook value of greater than 20m automatically were to transfer. This 77b in loans were eventually disposed of by NAMA at a profit (not difficult seeing as they only paid on average 41c in the Euro for the loans)- and NAMA was due to fully complete its business by the of 2021 (this date has changes a number of times).

    kippy wrote: »
    Coupled with the fact the banks can write off any corpo tax for years against their 'losses' in those times.

    Their losses relate to the write-down that NAMA imposed on loans- the return rate on the loans from BOI were almost 100% higher from BOI loans- than from AIB/INS/Anglo- yet BOI was forced to take the offer on the table from NAMA. (Note: originally NAMA had been mandated to take all loans of >5m - BOI successfully argued that it should be raised to 20m, that the 'haircut' that NAMA wanted to impose on their loans between 5 and 20m was wholly unjustifiable.

    kippy wrote: »
    Right now and for the next 12 to 18 months many people will require assistance with paying various bills. Whether the banks help people may depend on more temporary state support either directly to the individual or more easily by the banks playing ball.

    AIB is still in majority ownership- and their advisors actively tell investors that their main asset is tax credits that they are carrying- aka the Irish government are crystalising future tax credits held by AIB in the share value associated with the company. Personally I think that is despicable- its a form of having your cake and eating it. Also- its taring all lenders with the same brush. Keep in mind- this isn't even the first time that AIB had to be rescued by the Irish government- I remember the ICI scandal of the 1980s- when the Irish government borrowed money at 14% to bail out AIB (we pumped over 400m into them at that time).

    The AIB banking entity has been beset by scandal for much of its 54 year history- and it beggars belief that it is being allowed off the hook in the manner in which they have gotten away with.

    If you want to argue that the Irish banking sector owe the Irish public for the care and financial assistance we have pro-offered to them- I suggest that AIB/INS should shoulder the burden of the support owed to the Irish public- flogging BOI for the sins of AIB and others in the Irish banking sector- just doesn't make sense. Prudence should be rewarded, not punished.

    Note- I studied AIB and its governance for the leaving cert (as part of honours Economics)- and did discuss the whole sorry saga with Niamh Brennan (back in the 1990s, in UCD).

    There are a myriad of issues (both legacy and current day) with the Irish lending sector- but it behoves us to not tar the lot of them with the one brush.


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    #9064
    Mad_maxx
    Registered Users Posts: 13,505 ✭✭✭✭Mad_maxx


    stayback wrote: »
    I recommend anybody who has an interest in how the banking system collapsed in 2008 watch “too big too fail” it explains exactly how the system crashed.
    Not all banks were effected to the same extent. For example BOI didn’t need a cash injection but if it didn’t take it then it would look like all the other banks were insolvent. Thus all the other banks would see a run towards BOI. A bit like Wells Fargo in the states.
    Hence why BOI is the only bank that can stand on its own 2 feet.

    NAMA is different as this was a vehicle designed to relieve banks of their riskests assets. Not every loan that went to Nama was in default. A bit like COVID 19 we only the negative parts.

    bank of ireland is not in good shape at all , its share price is no higher today than at its 2012 low , its been constantly falling now for six years and has halved since the start of the year

    the big money men smell blood

    banks cant make any money in this country due to our bizarre repossession culture


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    #9065
    The_Conductor
    Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 32,280 Mod ✭✭✭✭The_Conductor


    Mad_maxx wrote: »
    bank of ireland is not in good shape at all , its share price is no higher today than at its 2012 low , its been constantly falling now for six years and has halved since the start of the year

    Bank of Ireland do not hold the losses to offset against future revenue- that AIB have been allowed carry (without any time delineation).

    The artificial price associated with AIB (notwithstanding the fact that the government still hold 71% of the ordinary shares)- is largely composed of historic losses that they are allowed carry as a future asset.

    How is that fair?


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    #9066
    Deub
    Registered Users Posts: 1,310 ✭✭✭Deub


    The US Stock market is going up but a good number of US homeowners are going the other way

    https://twitter.com/CNBC/status/1274563493094711298

    At the end of April, 65,000 Irish homeowners opted the mortgage break even though there was the wage subsidy scheme.
    It will be interesting to monitor the missed Mortgage payment in the coming months. Is there such statistics?

    Edit: The 30% includes renters as well.


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    #9067
    cnocbui
    Registered Users Posts: 19,965 ✭✭✭✭cnocbui


    Working from home sparks regional property boom

    ...

    Buyers’ agents such as Cate Bakos say interest in big regional cities around Melbourne and Sydney is rising in response to the opportunities – and concerns – created by COVID-19.

    Increasingly popular destinations include Bendigo and Ballarat in Victoria and Newcastle in NSW, which are a reasonable road and rail commute from their respective capitals, have big hospitals and excellent infrastructure.

    The $900,000 it costs to buy a two-bedroom apartment in Cammeray could secure a brick, two-storey, three-bedroom house with a large garden and lock-up garage on Ballarat’s Lake Wendouree foreshore, an exclusive tree-lined suburb close to the central business district.
    https://www.afr.com/companies/financial-services/working-from-home-sparks-regional-property-boom-20200610-p551ag

    Due to considerable self-interest, I hope some of that rubs off here.

    I miss Rabo Bank. :(


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    #9068
    Hubertj
    Registered Users Posts: 2,000 ✭✭✭Hubertj


    Reversal wrote: »
    Irish property funds more leveraged than 90% of similar operations elsewhere in Europe. The CB seems to think this poses a major threat to crashing the market. They reckon a 15% drop will be enough to trigger fire sales.

    https://www.irishtimes.com/business/commercial-property/central-bank-warns-of-covid-19-risks-to-property-market-1.4280680%3fmode=amp

    It refers to commercial property only though. Would that include all the apartments some of these entities hold? Article seems to only talk about offices...


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    #9069
    neutral guy
    Closed Accounts Posts: 402 ✭✭neutral guy


    I was doing some job in mid class house at posh area couple years ago and I heard the woman in house on phone dealing about car insurance.They was a great mid class family with good and well paid jobs ,2 nice cars on yard.She was dealing to pay insurance monthly by Visa card ! She did not have enough money pay in full.I was working in some other nice houses and I see nice cars and cheap food on table.That was before Covid guys and I could imagine how many of them will live in future when somebody will lose job.There is no savings guys,there is only bills.
    Another day ( dark morning in march 2019 ) I was traveling to work and I heard statistics about how many people pay gas/electricity bills using Visa/Master credit cars.I think it was 48 per cent .
    In some towns I not talking about Dublin people have pay FULL minimum wage for rent of the house ! There is no savings also guys.
    Could you imagine what gonna happen if government will close the tap ?
    Its gonna be very painful journey to the future.


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    #9070
    IsErik
    Registered Users Posts: 46 ✭IsErik


    Reversal wrote: »
    Irish property funds more leveraged than 90% of similar operations elsewhere in Europe. The CB seems to think this poses a major threat to crashing the market. They reckon a 15% drop will be enough to trigger fire sales.

    https://www.irishtimes.com/business/commercial-property/central-bank-warns-of-covid-19-risks-to-property-market-1.4280680%3fmode=amp


    The stock market is also in trouble, it is thinking years ahead and artificially prompted up, it's going to be a bloodbath soon and we should see it impact the property market at some age in the near future, the question is by how much % will they drop?


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    #9071
    IsErik
    Registered Users Posts: 46 ✭IsErik


    neutral guy wrote: »
    I was doing some job in mid class house at posh area couple years ago and I heard the woman in house on phone dealing about car insurance.They was a great mid class family with good and well paid jobs ,2 nice cars on yard.She was dealing to pay insurance monthly by Visa card ! She did not have enough money pay in full.I was working in some other nice houses and I see nice cars and cheap food on table.That was before Covid guys and I could imagine how many of them will live in future when somebody will lose job.There is no savings guys,there is only bills.
    Another day ( dark morning in march 2019 ) I was traveling to work and I heard statistics about how many people pay gas/electricity bills using Visa/Master credit cars.I think it was 48 per cent .
    In some towns I not talking about Dublin people have pay FULL minimum wage for rent of the house ! There is no savings also guys.
    Could you imagine what gonna happen if government will close the tap ?
    Its gonna be very painful journey to the future.


    Most live pay check to paycheck in an effort to keep up with the Jones's, just take a look at most of the cars out there, BMWS, Mercs etc. Majority on PCP with money people can't afford, i expect the used car market to tank by the end of the year.


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    #9072
    neutral guy
    Closed Accounts Posts: 402 ✭✭neutral guy


    IsErik wrote: »
    The stock market is also in trouble, it is thinking years ahead and artificially prompted up, it's going to be a bloodbath soon and we should see it impact the property market at some age in the near future, the question is by how much % will they drop?
    I think we will see reality on markets after election in USA.Before that everything gonna be "nice and easy".And as usual media will tell as about everything when fact will happen.Before that will be" V or U types recovery " which in reality will look like Z


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    #9073
    neutral guy
    Closed Accounts Posts: 402 ✭✭neutral guy


    IsErik wrote: »
    Most live pay check to paycheck in an effort to keep up with the Jones's, just take a look at most of the cars out there, BMWS, Mercs etc. Majority on PCP with money people can't afford, i expect the used car market to tank by the end of the year.
    I keep eye on donedeal motors sections.The amount of cars for sale felt down about 3000 positions comparing with a month ago when country was in quarantine.Or sellers leaving market or people stopped selling old because not gonna buy new,who knows.


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    #9074
    Padre_Pio
    Registered Users Posts: 5,057 ✭✭✭Padre_Pio


    neutral guy wrote: »
    There is no savings also guys.
    Could you imagine what gonna happen if government will close the tap ?
    Its gonna be very painful journey to the future.

    That's my point.

    People are on PUP payment and COVID breaks.

    What happens when restaurants are all supposed to open at the end of the month?
    Their creditors call in 3 months worth of bills. They can't open at full capacity. Their staff are put off their PUP payment and rely on the restaurant to pay their wages. Credit avenues are tight as banks are wary.

    Rinse and repeat with pubs and many other services.


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    #9075
    IsErik
    Registered Users Posts: 46 ✭IsErik


    Padre_Pio wrote: »
    That's my point.

    People are on PUP payment and COVID breaks.

    What happens when restaurants are all supposed to open at the end of the month?
    Their creditors call in 3 months worth of bills. They can't open at full capacity. Their staff are put off their PUP payment and rely on the restaurant to pay their wages. Credit avenues are tight as banks are wary.

    Rinse and repeat with pubs and many other services.


    This right here, i don't understand how the crash deniers cannot fathom how bad this recession is going to be. It will make GFC 08 look like a picnic, all sectors are impacted this time at a much more elevated level.


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    #9076
    awec
    Administrators Posts: 53,557 Admin ✭✭✭✭✭awec


    Gumbo wrote: »
    Can you link to where you are getting these expected decreases please.

    Maybe it’s those loan sharks they were asking us about a few weeks ago. :rolleyes:


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    #9077
    neutral guy
    Closed Accounts Posts: 402 ✭✭neutral guy


    Irish liquidations may breach 1,000 level

    https://www.irishtimes.com/business/irish-liquidations-may-breach-1-000-level-1.4284676


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    #9078
    JJJackal
    Registered Users Posts: 1,016 ✭✭✭JJJackal


    IsErik wrote: »
    This right here, i don't understand how the crash deniers cannot fathom how bad this recession is going to be. It will make GFC 08 look like a picnic, all sectors are impacted this time at a much more elevated level.

    Numerical its going to be worse as in percentage decline in GDP. The hope would be in this case that Irelands economic fundamentals were not flawed and thus rapid recovery.

    In 2008, the economic fundamentals were flawed


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    #9079
    Graham
    Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 17,642 Mod ✭✭✭✭Graham


    Mod Note

    friendly reminder that this is the accommodation & property forum. Please take the general economics discussion to the appropriate forum..

    Several off-topic posts deleted.


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    #9080
    IsErik
    Registered Users Posts: 46 ✭IsErik


    Anyway....

    People buying now should rethink, especially if you rely on max borrowing/exemptions. Be very careful what you are getting into, it could be financial suicide


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    #9081
    neutral guy
    Closed Accounts Posts: 402 ✭✭neutral guy


    Marius34 wrote: »
    If that's typical mid class family. The question who has those 116 Billion in Irish banks private accounts.
    One of them me.I drive 16 years old car,I pay motor tax for year ahead that save me 100 euros per year.I ve third party insurance.When oil prices went down I filled my full heating oil tank with heating oil for 25 cents per ltr because last winter I paid 57 per ltr.I pay 2 mortgages in my country 1 year ahead that give me flexibility if I will lose job.I use 7 years old laptop and old Nokia phone which I bought in 2007 because my smart phone broke down 6 months ago.I am carpenter and I use every chance get extra cash.I have 3 pairs of shoes which I use last 4 years and I coming back from Tesco with food with yellow stickers on it.I live this live about 6 years and I dont know how I can spent money because my life style is not spend them,I simply dont have time for it,the last year I was working 7 months without a single day off.This is my life style at the moment and I gonna continue it because I want buy house for cash.


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    #9082
    awec
    Administrators Posts: 53,557 Admin ✭✭✭✭✭awec


    IsErik wrote: »
    Anyway....

    People buying now should rethink, especially if you rely on max borrowing/exemptions. Be very careful what you are getting into, it could be financial suicide

    Quite the expert for someone who was asking whether or not to buy in a panic not a day ago.


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    #9083
    c.p.w.g.w
    Registered Users Posts: 4,994 ✭✭✭c.p.w.g.w


    Deub wrote: »
    The US Stock market is going up but a good number of US homeowners are going the other way

    https://twitter.com/CNBC/status/1274563493094711298

    At the end of April, 65,000 Irish homeowners opted the mortgage break even though there was the wage subsidy scheme.
    It will be interesting to monitor the missed Mortgage payment in the coming months. Is there such statistics?

    Edit: The 30% includes renters as well.

    The amount of folks who looked at(like we had 3 heads) myself & the OH for not availing of mortgage break was bizarre... interest continues to accrue


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    #9084
    IsErik
    Registered Users Posts: 46 ✭IsErik


    awec wrote: »
    Quite the expert for someone who was asking whether or not to buy in a panic not a day ago.


    How did you interpret that? I was asking when i.e in the next few months or wait two years.. My situation is a bit different, hence why i was asking.


    One thing is for sure, the dogs in the street know that property prices will drop, if i was relying heavily on borrowing at max capacity i would not be purchasing a property until the dust settles.


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    #9085
    Claw Hammer
    Registered Users Posts: 6,188 ✭✭✭Claw Hammer


    IsErik wrote: »
    How did you interpret that? I was asking when i.e in the next few months or wait two years.. My situation is a bit different, hence why i was asking.


    One thing is for sure, the dogs in the street know that property prices will drop, if i was relying heavily on borrowing at max capacity i would not be purchasing a property until the dust settles.

    You are not buying anyway, dust or no dust.


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    #9086
    cnocbui
    Registered Users Posts: 19,965 ✭✭✭✭cnocbui


    neutral guy wrote: »
    One of them me.I drive 16 years old car,I pay motor tax for year ahead that save me 100 euros per year.I ve third party insurance.When oil prices went down I filled my full heating oil tank with heating oil for 25 cents per ltr because last winter I paid 57 per ltr.I pay 2 mortgages in my country 1 year ahead that give me flexibility if I will lose job.I use 7 years old laptop and old Nokia phone which I bought in 2007 because my smart phone broke down 6 months ago.I am carpenter and I use every chance get extra cash.I have 3 pairs of shoes which I use last 4 years and I coming back from Tesco with food with yellow stickers on it.I live this live about 6 years and I dont know how I can spent money because my life style is not spend them,I simply dont have time for it,the last year I was working 7 months without a single day off.This is my life style at the moment and I gonna continue it because I want buy house for cash.

    You sound a bit like me. You will soon be comparatively rich while most of the posters on Boards who believe they should spend and borrow to the max because you only live once are still moaning about house prices in Dublin and the unfairness of it.

    One way I save money is by not paying for house insurance.


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    #9087
    IsErik
    Registered Users Posts: 46 ✭IsErik


    cnocbui wrote: »
    You sound a bit like me. You will soon be comparatively rich while most of the posters on Boards who believe they should spend and borrow to the max because you only live once are still moaning about house prices in Dublin and the unfairness of it.

    One way I save money is by not paying for house insurance.


    It will be the best thing you ever do, let all the greedy fools borrow "free money" (that has to be paid back plus interest btw).


    Pick up a bargain and let them live out the rest of their lives on the hedonistic treadmill of consumer debt. You will sleep well at night


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    #9088
    neutral guy
    Closed Accounts Posts: 402 ✭✭neutral guy


    I speak 4 languages and have opportunity read about many countries experiences.
    If we look back to 2008 we will see that Ireland was on the worse positions in world possible
    I dont want be very smart to speak about how good government of Ireland managed ( never try dance first dance in country you did not born) for that reason I will stay away from it.
    The what I see the government of Ireland stand in holding position when other countries start moving
    Might be its because old/new government situation,I dont know
    But if they will go old way as introduce new / increase old taxes as they did before the country will be dead by my own opinion
    And that says plenty about how property prices will react because people does not have money already and if government will not introduce permanent at least 1 year support then it will be nuclear winter on property market
    It is too early speak about property market recovery because in reality nothing happened there yet
    One thing about I am absolutely sure there will be no property prices increases because the only way for prices at the moment is down


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    #9089
    antimatterx
    Registered Users Posts: 2,710 ✭✭✭antimatterx


    IsErik wrote: »
    Anyway....

    People buying now should rethink, especially if you rely on max borrowing/exemptions. Be very careful what you are getting into, it could be financial suicide

    I'm getting ready to buy, but I won't be in a position for 12-18 months. Should I buy then?


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    #9090
    LJ12345
    Registered Users Posts: 123 ✭✭LJ12345


    neutral guy wrote: »
    One thing about I am absolutely sure there will be no property prices increases because the only way for prices at the moment is down

    This would be true in a balanced market but as many have written before me, our supply v demand issue will throw a curved ball to the housing market, I see plenty that have already held off buying due to brexit and with brexit still sitting on the horizons (who knows how long the repurcussions may take from that or what impact if at all it will have on property) those on the demand side may continue to wait but we’re all getting older and that demand will not be going away anytime soon and is likely to increase as opposed to drop.
    neutral guy wrote: »
    I speak 4 languages and have opportunity read about many countries experiences.
    If we look back to 2008 we will see that Ireland was on the worse positions in world possible
    I dont want be very smart to speak about how good government of Ireland managed ( never try dance first dance in country you did not born) for that reason I will stay away from it.
    The what I see the government of Ireland stand in holding position when other countries start moving
    Might be its because old/new government situation,I dont know
    But if they will go old way as introduce new / increase old taxes as they did before the country will be dead by my own opinion
    And that says plenty about how property prices will react because people does not have money already and if government will not introduce permanent at least 1 year support then it will be nuclear winter on property market
    It is too early speak about property market recovery because in reality nothing happened there yet
    One thing about I am absolutely sure there will be no property prices increases because the only way for prices at the moment is down


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    #9091
    neutral guy
    Closed Accounts Posts: 402 ✭✭neutral guy


    The only thing what is really gonna be very interesting is how builders will sell them houses on overpriced land which they pay for.I think there should be additional government support introduced to help buyers buy them and builders sell them.This gonna be very interesting.


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