Property Market 2020

Zenify

TheSheriff wrote: »

Spoke with a friend this morning I haven't chatted to in nearly a year and mentioned we had been house hunting the past few months. The response was, "oh, we are starting now too, there's gonna be drops over coronavirus" and that they've just got the mortgage AIP. I maintain that when everybody on the street is looking for said bargains it will be even harder to find one.

Most people in Ireland who can afford to get out of the rental market do! I doubt there's many happy renters.

cnocbui

The_Conductor wrote: »

You're kidding- right?
Most of the midlands are on a flood plain- I've photographs of me boating around Athlone as a kid- there were regularly thousands of acres on both sides of the county border under water- all the way up to the Dublin road.

Ireland is a low lying country- with occasional hills. We had better get used to it (flooding), and suggesting that the midlands will somehow be immune to flooding- when historically much of the midlands was periodically (not every year) inundated with flooding- will mean a lot of people will have wholly unrealistic expectations..........

Average elevation is 187m Be thankful you aren't in Denmark 34 or Estonia 61.

19233974

Marius34 wrote: »

I think there is some progress in the last years, on housing, the construction supplies increasing, including social housing, and rental project, although at the slower phase than it should.
By big part the issue is people itself, most things I see from protesters on housing, is around control on Landlords and AirBnB things, and government did put more control on it. I have said this for the years, this won't solve the issue for long term, where as focus on new construction supply can solve, unfortunately this would not solve much in a year or two.

the people should have to protest to be entitled to housing, and progress has been absolute minimal and driven by monstrous profits being made through the rental market by institutional landlords.

So very dissapointing to see basically a continuation of the status quo for the next few years with a recession thrown on top

Awkwardstroke

While flooding is likely to be an issue in the future, its been overstated in my opinion here.
There will also be some positive upsides to climate change, with warmer summers and less frost during winters (saving on home heating costs).

Having said that some terrible planning decisions in the past contributed to houses been built on Turloughs etc.

Springy Turf

Awkwardstroke wrote: »

There will also be some positive upsides to climate change, with warmer summers and less frost during winters (saving on home heating costs).

Climate change includes more extreme weather (like snowstorms in the Winter, Record periods of rainfall, more storms + higher sea level).

Marius34

19233974 wrote: »

the people should have to protest to be entitled to housing, and progress has been absolute minimal and driven by monstrous profits being made through the rental market by institutional landlords.

Viva Venezuela, Viva Cuba, kill capitalism, power to people (= power to inefficient corrupt government)
That's how left populists takes power. Every person might get a shelter, but not the living standards they fight for.

It really dangerous to put main focus on peoples rights (although i agree its important), instead on focus on construction supplies, and it's competition. In Ireland, as for an advanced country with low property stocks, you really need to focus on building as much as possible with fair competition on supply side.

JimmyVik

Newbie20 wrote: »

This is a good point. Very simple, but some people seem to forget that they are paying rent whilst holding out for a price drop in houses (talking about those that currently have the deposit). I think it comes down to how badly somebody needs a house. If you are at the stage where you have waited for years to buy, I’m not sure I could wait another year or two to see what happens.

If a couple decides not to buy at the moment and continues to rent instead at say for example, €1,400 a month, after 2 years they will have spent €33,600 in rent.

These people could hold out for 2 years and then be delighted about getting a €30,000 drop in the house price but they’d have spent it anyway in the meantime.

Now maybe the house prices will drop massively (who knows) and these people will be proven right in time, but I think it’s worth remembering that you are spending a certain amount of the potential drop anyway while waiting.

This is also good for the tax man.
He will be getting €15k of your money too.
Big incentive for them to keep people renting.

The_Conductor

Awkwardstroke wrote: »

While flooding is likely to be an issue in the future, its been overstated in my opinion here.
There will also be some positive upsides to climate change, with warmer summers and less frost during winters (saving on home heating costs).

Having said that some terrible planning decisions in the past contributed to houses been built on Turloughs etc.

We've *always* had flooding in this country- its nothing new.
The new thing is- we've been building housing on flood plains and acting like bratty children, bitching and moaning any time it does flood.
Flooding is normal- it is not unusual.
Yes, it may get worse, or more frequent- but there are tens of thousands houses built in places that many of us remember 4-5-6 feet under water in our life times.

JimmyVik

TheSheriff wrote: »

Spoke with a friend this morning I haven't chatted to in nearly a year and mentioned we had been house hunting the past few months. The response was, "oh, we are starting now too, there's gonna be drops over coronavirus" and that they've just got the mortgage AIP. I maintain that when everybody on the street is looking for said bargains it will be even harder to find one.

I think for many who have lost/delayed mortgage approval due to Covid, there is now a whole new wave of people who weren't planning on buying before, but now think there'll be bargains to be had so are jumping on board.

I would be in the same position as your friends myself. I keep flip flopping over whether I should buy or not. Changes with the wind these days.
As much as I want to resist, i may well end up buying and am feeling the pressure to make the move.

Springy Turf

JimmyVik wrote: »

This is also good for the tax man.
He will be getting €15k of your money too.
Big incentive for them to keep people renting.

This is ridiculous.

There is no big government conspiracy to keep people renting. Protecting tax revenue from landlords is not a policy priority for any party. In fact, its pretty clear that the last government did not want to encourage people to buy second properties to rent out at all - if you are taxed at the high marginal rate, its hard to make any money off these "investments". FF and FG have a base made up entirely of owner occupiers - they don't want that base to shrink.

Also, several landlords (for the Kennedy Wilsons of this world) are lot liable for PAYE taxes. Other landlords (Those who are not tax resident for example) will usually be paying at the lower rate of tax.

cnocbui

Hubertj wrote: »

How does Aus and NZ compare with Ireland in terms of housing stock? I presume tax and regulations around rental income are more stable compared to Ireland?

NZ is terrible, in terms of availability and quality of housing stock. Due mostly to foreign buyers being pretty much unfettered, until recently. Auckland in particular has had one of the highest rates of house price appreciation on the planet for many years. Wellington is almost as bad. Public servants don't seem to be feather bedded there as they are here, which I think would be one of the main reasons taxation is reasonable and they can usually balance budgets and have a surplus. Public servants such as nurses and police have been complaining of simply not being able to afford to live in Auckland. Apart from foreign buyers, they have a huge problem with burdensome building regulations, supposedly due to earthquakes, and local councils gouging on planning costs. I'm not sure how they treat rental income, but I'll bet it's very similar to how Australia does.

Australia has a very simple approach to taxation - if it's income, it's taxed as income. A complex approach foreign to Irish thought processes or mental ability to process. So interest from bank deposits is just added to your other sources of income and taxed at your marginal rate. Same for rental income. You add all your income streams together and the lot gets taxed the same as if it's from the same source. None of this 47% DIRT sh​ite. Dividends from shares are a little bit different. Companies are taxed at a higher rate than here. Their dividends are usually paid from profits, meaning tax has been paid on them, so they allow for whats termed franking, which means dividends where it's considered 100% of the tax has been paid, are not included in the personal income bucket, they are tax free to the recipient. There is some complexity in that the franking is not always 100% so the non franked part does go in the bucket.

And cop this, Australia has negative gearing, so if you borrow to purchase an investment property, but the interest and maintenance costs are greater than the rental income, you can offset the loss against your other income streams.

Would you believe that in Australia, the cost of having a professional complete an individuals tax return is itself a tax deduction?

I believe The Irish Public Service has a long standing policy of deliberately making everything as complex and involved as practicable, in order to make work for the professional class. So if you want to sell a house, you have to pay someone to come up with a BER certificate, you actually have to involve a solicitor to process the sale too.

Australia, for the most part, tends to simplify. You don't need a solicitor for most normal house sales or purchases because they have a rational and functional property registration system and a well defined and legally efficient way of transferring title. When I bought my first house and then later sold it, I used a settlement agent, which cost about €200 each time, not some f'n ridiculous percentage of the property value. A lot of people in Australia could go from cradle to grave without having to engage a solicitor. You can DIY your own divorce and Will, for instance. In most cases you don't even need one if you are acting as an executor, even when property is involved.

wolfyboy555

Prices are mad. Are EA just jacking them up hoping people will panic buy? Here is a 3 yr old house in Cellbridge asking 460:

https://www.myhome.ie/residential/brochure/8-hawthorn-gate-celbridge-co-kildare/4434438

It was bought for 390 3 years ago and I assume owners could avail of the HTB for an extra 5% off.

https://propertypriceregisterireland.com/details/8_hawthorn_gate_maynooth_road_celbridge_co_kildare_ireland-258980/

So buying this as a FTB now you can't apply for the HTB. We've been saving hard the past number of years and it's depressing to see these savings wiped out by crazy price increases.

Claw Hammer

The_Conductor wrote: »

You're kidding- right?
Most of the midlands are on a flood plain- I've photographs of me boating around Athlone as a kid- there were regularly thousands of acres on both sides of the county border under water- all the way up to the Dublin road.

Ireland is a low lying country- with occasional hills. We had better get used to it (flooding), and suggesting that the midlands will somehow be immune to flooding- when historically much of the midlands was periodically (not every year) inundated with flooding- will mean a lot of people will have wholly unrealistic expectations..........

The Dublin Road in Athlone is on the Esker Riada where it doesn't flood.

SozBbz

wolfyboy555 wrote: »

Prices are mad. Are EA just jacking them up hoping people will panic buy? Here is a 3 yr old house in Cellbridge asking 460:

https://www.myhome.ie/residential/brochure/8-hawthorn-gate-celbridge-co-kildare/4434438

It was bought for 390 3 years ago and I assume owners could avail of the HTB for an extra 5% off.

https://propertypriceregisterireland.com/details/8_hawthorn_gate_maynooth_road_celbridge_co_kildare_ireland-258980/

So buying this as a FTB now you can't apply for the HTB. We've been saving hard the past number of years and it's depressing to see these savings wiped out by crazy price increases.

Yikes, yes that seems expensive. Yes its in good condition but still, theres no scope for improvement, and its on the outskirts of a commuter town.

But again, its just an asking price. They could easily get tumbleweed priced like that.

JimmyVik

wolfyboy555 wrote: »

Prices are mad. Are EA just jacking them up hoping people will panic buy? Here is a 3 yr old house in Cellbridge asking 460:

https://www.myhome.ie/residential/brochure/8-hawthorn-gate-celbridge-co-kildare/4434438

It was bought for 390 3 years ago and I assume owners could avail of the HTB for an extra 5% off.

https://propertypriceregisterireland.com/details/8_hawthorn_gate_maynooth_road_celbridge_co_kildare_ireland-258980/

So buying this as a FTB now you can't apply for the HTB. We've been saving hard the past number of years and it's depressing to see these savings wiped out by crazy price increases.

Have you bid on it?
They EA might tell you what bids are on it.
Might even be less than you think.

fret_wimp2

JimmyVik wrote: »

Have you bid on it?
They EA might tell you what bids are on it.
Might even be less than you think.

If its bought under HTB, and less than 5 years old, there will be clawback:

https://www.revenue.ie/en/tax-professionals/tdm/income-tax-capital-gains-tax-corporation-tax/part-15/15-01-46.pdf

brisan

wolfyboy555 wrote: »

Prices are mad. Are EA just jacking them up hoping people will panic buy? Here is a 3 yr old house in Cellbridge asking 460:

https://www.myhome.ie/residential/brochure/8-hawthorn-gate-celbridge-co-kildare/4434438

It was bought for 390 3 years ago and I assume owners could avail of the HTB for an extra 5% off.

https://propertypriceregisterireland.com/details/8_hawthorn_gate_maynooth_road_celbridge_co_kildare_ireland-258980/

So buying this as a FTB now you can't apply for the HTB. We've been saving hard the past number of years and it's depressing to see these savings wiped out by crazy price increases.

If they are selling after only 3 years there may be a pressing reason
Maybe worth going in just below what you think the property is worth

19233974

Marius34 wrote: »

Viva Venezuela, Viva Cuba, kill capitalism, power to people (= power to inefficient corrupt government)
That's how left populists takes power. Every person might get a shelter, but not the living standards they fight for.

It really dangerous to put main focus on peoples rights (although i agree its important), instead on focus on construction supplies, and it's competition. In Ireland, as for an advanced country with low property stocks, you really need to focus on building as much as possible with fair competition on supply side.

You are stating the obvious! Im not talking about killing capitalism, jesus. Im talking about basics of a functioning housing market that isnt keeping people in perpetual rental traps at peak affordability while international investors cream off the top.

Im far from a lefty but Its clear what needs to be done, however the "people" can not just enact policy to bring in change and i am not talking about peoples rights. I am talking about a housing situation that functions in a reasonable way and that needs to come from government level which has abjectly failed us.

Marius34

19233974 wrote: »

You are stating the obvious! Im not talking about killing capitalism, jesus. Im talking about basics of a functioning housing market that isnt keeping people in perpetual rental traps at peak affordability while international investors cream off the top.

Im far from a lefty but Its clear what needs to be done, however the "people" can not just enact policy to bring in change and i am not talking about peoples rights. I am talking about a housing situation that functions in a reasonable way and that needs to come from government level which has abjectly failed us.

I'm not calling you lefty, and I agree with this comment, but not a previous one, where your focus was mainly against landlords, profits and human rights, where most people protest for. Which won't solve housing crisis as long as there we don't increase residential construction.
Increase in landlords whether it's large or small ones, its increase competition, and as a result decrease in price.
I do think it's unfair competition between big international investors, and small Irish landlords. Where international investors pay less tax for the same service, than local individuals.

neutral guy

We have great place in my country on coast of fantastic river.The builders built houses with great view there and couple years after that all estate gone under the water.The global warming ? As said my grand dad,his grand dad never grew a spudz on this place because knew that every second/third year this place goes under the water.The global warming is not a problem,problem is people who built houses were nobody grew a spudz.

19233974

Marius34 wrote: »

I'm not calling you lefty, and I agree with this comment, but not a previous one, where your focus was mainly against landlords, profits and human rights, where most people protest for. Which won't solve housing crisis as long as there we don't increase residential construction.
Increase in landlords whether it's large or small ones, its increase competition, and as a result decrease in price.
I do think it's unfair competition between big international investors, and small Irish landlords. Where international investors pay less tax for the same service, than local individuals.

this is my previous comment:
"the people shouldnt have to protest to be entitled to housing, and progress has been absolute minimal and driven by monstrous profits being made through the rental market by institutional landlords.

So very dissapointing to see basically a continuation of the status quo for the next few years with a recession thrown on top"

I never stated against stated i am against landlords, profits etc.

So unsure where you got that from. I stick by what i said that progress on the housing front has been absolute minimal, we have basically gone through our boom cycle without correcting any of the issues.

I cant see it changing with what FF/FG have proposed, i thought the major gains made by SF might have shocked them into correcting some of the clear deficiencies but covid and the subsequent economic fallout looks like housing will remain the way it is.

Marius34

19233974 wrote: »

this is my previous comment:
"the people shouldnt have to protest to be entitled to housing, and progress has been absolute minimal and driven by monstrous profits being made through the rental market by institutional landlords.

So very dissapointing to see basically a continuation of the status quo for the next few years with a recession thrown on top"

I never stated against stated i am against landlords, profits etc.

So unsure where you got that from. I stick by what i said that progress on the housing front has been absolute minimal, we have basically gone through our boom cycle without correcting any of the issues.

I cant see it changing with what FF/FG have proposed, i thought the major gains made by SF might have shocked them into correcting some of the clear deficiencies but covid and the subsequent economic fallout looks like housing will remain the way it is.

19233974 wrote: »

the people should have to protest to be entitled to housing

Your citation is different from your actual comment.
Anyway, in this case, I'm not sure than what kind of changes you expecting from FG in order to fix Property Market issue in real terms?

19233974

Marius34 wrote: »

Your citation is different from your actual comment.
Anyway, in this case, I'm not sure than what kind of changes you expecting from FG in order to fix Property Market issue in real terms?

It was an obvious typo! but i didnt mention any of the things you stated.

Ehhh they are the party in power so who else would i expect to fix the obvious issues with the housing market? You do understand that is why we having a minister for housing? who else would fix it?

off the top of my head they could. Attempt to reduce building costs, streamline planning and the bureaucracy involved, utilise the fact that the state is the largest landholder in the country, make the reit`s pay some tax but create a balance so that its still worth their while to fund developments and increase the scale of developments in the city centre.

There are so many things that we could do quickly and easily, we need balance brought to the market.

Marius34

19233974 wrote: »

It was an obvious typo! but i didnt mention any of the things you stated.

Ehhh they are the party in power so who else would i expect to fix the obvious issues with the housing market? You do understand that is why we having a minister for housing? who else would fix it?

off the top of my head they could. Attempt to reduce building costs, streamline planning and the bureaucracy involved, utilise the fact that the state is the largest landholder in the country, make the reit`s pay some tax but create a balance so that its still worth their while to fund developments and increase the scale of developments in the city centre.

There are so many things that we could do quickly and easily, we need balance brought to the market.

Ok, that's makes a big difference on what I commented, I honestly didn't know that you made a typo mistake in your original comment.
I see you main solution is on the supply side. Which I look the same way. Although FG did streamlined some of the housing projects in Dublin, even with neighboring residents filling complains, but I believe it can do more than that in what you mentioned, including reducing costs for developers, and more tax on REITs.

IsErik

Do people foresee a drop in prices within the next 2 years? Purely word of mouth and no data to back it up but i know of a few people who fear they may not have a job within the next couple of months but are currently AIP with and without exemptions and are pushing ahead with their purchase, solely due to the fact they may not be able to buy the house they want within the next few years. All are mid thirties and want to buy as soon as they can. I wonder if this could cause a spike in activity and eventual sale prices in the short term and then when the true impact of this recession hits we may see a downturn, who knows. Interested to hear other peoples take on the matter

cnocbui

I think the number of people who become unemployed, won't be sufficient in number to lessen demand by enough to cause appreciable property price declines.

limnam

half a mil for a shoebox in kildare.

Where do I sign up.

Who buys these fcking things.

handlemaster

limnam wrote: »

half a mil for a shoebox in kildare.

Where do I sign up.

Who buys these fcking things.

I hear mice like to live in shoeboxes

Mic 1972

IsErik wrote: »

Do people foresee a drop in prices within the next 2 years? Purely word of mouth and no data to back it up but i know of a few people who fear they may not have a job within the next couple of months but are currently AIP with and without exemptions and are pushing ahead with their purchase, solely due to the fact they may not be able to buy the house they want within the next few years. All are mid thirties and want to buy as soon as they can. I wonder if this could cause a spike in activity and eventual sale prices in the short term and then when the true impact of this recession hits we may see a downturn, who knows. Interested to hear other peoples take on the matter

Personally I think there will be no drop. The market was declining in Q4 last year but it has already recovered regardless of Covid, job loss and general uncertainly.
The next two years will be business as usual

JimmyVik

IsErik wrote: »

Do people foresee a drop in prices within the next 2 years? Purely word of mouth and no data to back it up but i know of a few people who fear they may not have a job within the next couple of months but are currently AIP with and without exemptions and are pushing ahead with their purchase, solely due to the fact they may not be able to buy the house they want within the next few years. All are mid thirties and want to buy as soon as they can. I wonder if this could cause a spike in activity and eventual sale prices in the short term and then when the true impact of this recession hits we may see a downturn, who knows. Interested to hear other peoples take on the matter

I cant help but think there is going to be a drop.
But Im always wrong when I try to predict anything to do with property.