Covid19 Part XVIII-25,473 in ROI(1,736 deaths) 5,760 in NI (551 deaths)(30/06)Read OP

Sheepdish1 · 14-06-2020 10:24PM

drunkmonkey wrote: »

Yea if they don't sort themselves out. The only people who will disagree with that strategy is Dubliners, the rest of the country knows it should happen. It's not ready to open up, numbers are too high.
I doubt it's foreign travel responsible for the current numbers.

Do you actually think the numbers are too high? I understood our numbers were very low and ‘surprisingly stable’ ?

MipMap · 14-06-2020 10:29PM

Quote John Cleese - Monty Pythons Flying Circus.

"This Sketch is Stupid"

drunkmonkey · 14-06-2020 10:31PM

Sheepdish1 wrote: »

Do you actually think the numbers are too high? I understood our numbers were very low and ‘surprisingly stable’ ?

Stubbornly stable, was expecting lower, Maybe it'll happen this week. New cases should be hitting 0 everywhere.

bb1234567 · 14-06-2020 10:50PM

patnor1011 wrote: »

It was Tanzanian national lab staffed by WHO. They got kicked out. As for praying he is not alone, quite a lot of countries used this narrative. What really is unsettling is why it is mostly western countries sufferring most of casulties and poor countries with pretty much nonexistent health system fare much better.
Could it be our lifestyle? I do not think prayer is what helps but certainly, there is something strange going on when goat or papaya tests positive.

Probably because it's a load of ****e. Do you honestly think a papaya tested positive? Or do you think it's more likely this Tanzanian leader made it up to avoid the responsibility of handling the outbreak by downplaying it

It is no longer the case that poorer countries are not as affected. Peru, Chile, Brazil , Ecuador ,Mexico will likely have more deaths per capita than most of Europe and the West very soon

KrustyUCC · 14-06-2020 11:05PM

drunkmonkey wrote: »

Stubbornly stable, was expecting lower, Maybe it'll happen this week. New cases should be hitting 0 everywhere.

0 cases everywhere is probably unrealistic

We will have cases going forward like elsewhere in Europe

It's about cases, hospital admissions and ICU cases not being so large as to overwhelm the health systems

Charles Babbage · 14-06-2020 11:38PM

Cumulative figures since March are one thing, cases in June in each county would be a better guide to what measures should be taken now.

Sheepdish1 · 14-06-2020 11:50PM

KrustyUCC wrote: »

0 cases everywhere is probably unrealistic

We will have cases going forward like elsewhere in Europe

It's about cases, hospital admissions and ICU cases not being so large as to overwhelm the health systems

Each country has a different healthcare system and capacity. There must be a number when ICU’s become overwhelmed. What is the number that we can manage without being overwhelmed ?

MrMusician18 · 15-06-2020 01:32AM

ongarite wrote: »

Dublin has a much bigger percentage of people in house shares and other overcrowded homes.
Younger people who were/are working right through this pandemic as essential workers in varied industries.

Nursing homes in greater Dublin area are more likely to use agency staff who move from home to home throughout the day, week. Companies who run these homes own 3-4 and shuffle staff between them all.
In more rural counties the staff of these nursing homes are likely to be staffed by permanent employees.

There are many more opportunities for mixing in urban areas. It is much easier to call to a friend, the children to meet the cousins in the park and the big one, teenagers from different families to continue to socialise in large groups.

15-06-2020 03:24AM

bb1234567 wrote: »

Probably because it's a load of ****e. Do you honestly think a papaya tested positive? Or do you think it's more likely this Tanzanian leader made it up to avoid the responsibility of handling the outbreak by downplaying it

It is no longer the case that poorer countries are not as affected. Peru, Chile, Brazil , Ecuador ,Mexico will likely have more deaths per capita than most of Europe and the West very soon

America's first batch of tests were coming up with positive for laboratory grade water.

https://www-businessinsider-com.cdn.ampproject.org/v/s/www.businessinsider.com/early-coronavirus-cdc-tests-distinguish-covid-water-2020-3?amp_js_v=a3&amp_gsa=1&amp&usqp=mq331AQFKAGwASA%3D#aoh=15921913258525&referrer=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.google.com&amp_tf=From%20%251%24s&ampshare=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.businessinsider.com%2Fearly-coronavirus-cdc-tests-distinguish-covid-water-2020-3

patnor1011 · 15-06-2020 04:28AM

bb1234567 wrote: »

Probably because it's a load of ****e. Do you honestly think a papaya tested positive? Or do you think it's more likely this Tanzanian leader made it up to avoid the responsibility of handling the outbreak by downplaying it

It is no longer the case that poorer countries are not as affected. Peru, Chile, Brazil , Ecuador ,Mexico will likely have more deaths per capita than most of Europe and the West very soon

Well it is really easy then. He (the president) said he did it. You say you do not believe that. I say - I do not care.
Belief is strange thing. A lot of times it has nothing to do with "facts" or pretty much anything.
Honestly, I see no problem with papaya testing positive as there are numerous reports of these tests being to put it mildly - problematic. There are instances of people testing positive and negative on subsequent one and vice versa. Why not quail, goat or papaya?
Then again testing does not prove anything. The more you test the more cases you find. Stop testing and there are no cases. What is more important in determining if we are in the middle of deadly pandemic is sadly simple - number of dead people. There will be more of them in poor (undeveloped) countries or western (developed) countries due to lack of healthcare in former and bad lifestyle and overal health in later one. "Developing" countries (everything in the middle) fare much better than the rest.
Yet still somehow this pandemic failed to show devastation we were promised by various prediction models and media. Make no mistake - devastation is here but it is going to be economic one, which started while ago but accelerated due to lockdowns.

What Username Guidelines · 15-06-2020 07:24AM

Looks like the antibody testing kicks off today, with letters being sent to people in Sligo and Dublin, 5,000 total. Results not expected until late August

https://www.rte.ie/news/2020/0615/1147432-coronavirus-ireland/

KrustyUCC · 15-06-2020 08:02AM

Gerry Killeen is definitely persistent

'It feels like being in a bad disaster movie':Second wave of Covid-19 inevitable says Cork-based professor

Lifting Ireland’s lockdown under the government’s current phased plan is a recipe for disaster, according to a University College Cork professor who has been on the frontline of battles against pandemics across the globe. Darragh Bermingham reports

https://www.echolive.ie/corknews/It-feels-like-being-in-a-bad-disaster-movie-Second-wave-of-Covid-19-inevitable-says-Cork-based-professor-3abfed8f-c2b5-4007-ac9f-9d72d1d9e369-ds

caveat emptor · 15-06-2020 08:03AM

Really stark the difference in outbreak type by week. Given most outbreaks are in private houses does it not make sense to say we should only meet family / friends outside?

I find it very strange that we've had such a huge proportion of healthcare workers getting it relative to other countries.
I also find it very strange that there has been so little nosocomial transmission.

The majority of cases in hospitals are in Dublin. Therefore the majority of people who come into direct contact with the virus on a daily basis is in these locations.

Just an observation but imagine a situation where a junior nurse who is LIVING in Dublin is working away. God forbid gets sick but has since gone to a friends for a bbq. A number of people who were present have since tested positive. That has an effect on statistics which isn't obvious at first.

nurse is living in Dublin but is actually from mayo
Dublin needs to get it's act together
cases do not get recorded as nosocomial
outbreak is recorded as private
person living in shared accommodation (Dublin rents very expensive see)
number of housemates also contract virus
house mates all went to their own bbq .........

Replace nurse with cleaner / cook / delivery man / gp surgery secretary whatever. The virus is there and the probability of contracting it increases with how likely you are to come into contact with an infected person. That we know.

There have been 8000 cases in healthcare workers that represent 32% of all of our cases.

https://www.hpsc.ie/a-z/respiratory/coronavirus/novelcoronavirus/casesinireland/epidemiologyofcovid-19inireland/COVID-19%20Daily%20epidemiology%20report%20(NPHET)%2014062020%20v1_website.pdf

silverharp · 15-06-2020 08:04AM

The media have been a hoot in all of this

https://twitter.com/Heminator/status/1272356179403059207

hmmm · 15-06-2020 08:04AM

What Username Guidelines wrote: »

Looks like the antibody testing kicks off today, with letters being sent to people in Sligo and Dublin, 5,000 total. Results not expected until late August

https://www.rte.ie/news/2020/0615/1147432-coronavirus-ireland/

Are we going to take bets on the results?

Our testing has been pretty good but won't have caught everything, particularly earlier in the peak. 12,000 positive cases in Dublin, let's say 40 to 50,000 in reality - that's about 4% of the population. Slightly lower than that in Sligo just because more dispersed population, lower use of public transport - say 2%.

ixoy · 15-06-2020 08:05AM

KrustyUCC wrote: »

Gerry Killeen is definitely persistent

'It feels like being in a bad disaster movie':Second wave of Covid-19 inevitable says Cork-based professor

Has he ever been challenged as to how other countries, lifting their restrictions earlier, haven't experienced this disaster movie? Is it unique to Ireland for him or what?

KrustyUCC · 15-06-2020 08:12AM

ixoy wrote: »

Has he ever been challenged as to how other countries, lifting their restrictions earlier, haven't experienced this disaster movie? Is it unique to Ireland for him or what?

He doesn't seem to get challenged at all

He seems to be all about getting down to 0 cases no matter the costs

I really hope he's wrong

Plenty of people calling him Professor Doom in the comments on FB

growleaves · 15-06-2020 08:15AM

KrustyUCC wrote: »

He doesn't seem to get challenged at all

He seems to be all about getting down to 0 cases no matter the costs

I really hope he's wrong

Plenty of people calling him Professor Doom in the comments on FB

I notice that petition letter is still being referred to as being signed by "1,000 academics and scientists across Ireland" on an article published today.

Neamhshuntasach · 15-06-2020 08:19AM

ixoy wrote: »

Has he ever been challenged as to how other countries, lifting their restrictions earlier, haven't experienced this disaster movie? Is it unique to Ireland for him or what?

And if there isn't this unavoidable inevitable second wave, you won't hear a ****ing peep out of him.

I don't get why a lot of people in these professional capacities can't strike a balance. Is it possible there is a second wave? Of course. Is it possible there won't be one? Perhaps. Who knows. The first wave came out of know where and hit much of an unprepared world where people were closely intertwined. Any potential second wave will occur when countries are way more prepared, have more experience and knowledge of handling a pandemic and with measures to reduce the spread in place. It's hardly a recipe for disaster.

Hector Savage · 15-06-2020 08:19AM

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

Not second wave, just inability to deal with the first.

And Trump is starting up his rallies soon

Worztron · 15-06-2020 08:19AM

SPDUB wrote: »

How exactly ? I've haven't gone by a bank or post office recently without there being a queue outside .

I've never heard of robbers queuing up

There may not always be queues.

Worztron · 15-06-2020 08:20AM

phater phagan wrote: »

The deal is that it helps to stop spreading the disease.
I don't believe that wearing a face mask is going to lead to an increase in robberies.

I know that. We will see.

Rob A. Bank · 15-06-2020 08:22AM

We are still labouring under the impression that Covid-19 is only spread by droplets, this is where the 2 meter safety idea originated.

Unfortunately there is increasing evidence emerging that longer distance aerosol airborne transmission has been the dominant factor in the explosive spread of the virus worldwide.

F4.medium.gif

The case for mandatory masking in public is well made in a recent peer reviewed research study published in The Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the USA. They studied cities in China, Italy and the US. The effectiveness of social distancing, stay-at-home orders, and mandated face-covering can be seen in the graphs below. Social distancing alone resulted in a rise in cases, stay at home orders resulted in a very small fall in cases but mandatory face covering was effective in causing a fall in cases in NY.

F3.medium.gif

Contrasting the trends of new infections between NYC and the United States. Daily new confirmed infections in (A) NYC and (B) the United States. The dotted lines represent linear fitting to the data between April 17 and May 9 in NYC and between April 4 and May 9 in the United States. In B, the number in NYC was subtracted from that in the United States. The vertical lines label the dates for social distancing, stay-at-home orders, and mandated face-covering.

Airborne and presymptomatic transmission can only be mitigated by mandatory widespread face-covering/mask wearing, thereby choking the source of interhuman virus spread.

Given the anti-masking stance of our 'powers that be' to date, I am not hopeful that the sensible option will be enforced here.

drunkmonkey · 15-06-2020 08:22AM

caveat emptor wrote: »

There have been 8000 cases in healthcare workers that represent 32% of all of our cases.

I wonder how much of the remaining 68% caught it from health care workers or environments?
Personally I only know one health care worker with it, a student nurse sent to work in a nursing home when college was cancelled. I know 6 others, one brought it back from Italy, two picked it up in hospital after being sent in for other ailments, two of their neighbors who picked it up from one sent to hospital after they were released without being tested and one meat factory worker, asymptomatic but didn't pass it to his wife or kids even though he was waiting 2 weeks for a test and hadn't a clue he had it. These are all within about 3km of me.

hmmm · 15-06-2020 08:27AM

Neamhshuntasach wrote: »

I don't get why a lot of people in these professional capacities can't strike a balance. Is it possible there is a second wave? Of course. Is it possible there won't be one? Perhaps. Who knows. The first wave came out of know where and hit much of an unprepared world where people were closely intertwined. Any potential second wave will occur when countries are way more prepared, have more experience and knowledge of handling a pandemic and with measures to reduce the spread in place. It's hardly a recipe for disaster.

It's not his role to strike a balance between what his professional opinion is and what people want to hear. I don't necessarily agree with him, but he has an awful lot more education and experience than my amateur opinion and it's important we have voices like him feeding into the discussion as to what our next steps should be.

is_that_so · 15-06-2020 08:33AM

Rob A. Bank wrote: »

We are still labouring under the impression that Covid-19 is only spread by droplets, this is where the 2 meter safety idea originated.

Unfortunately there is increasing evidence emerging that longer distance aerosol airborne transmission has been the dominant factor in the explosive spread of the virus worldwide.

The case for mandatory masking in public is well made in a recent peer reviewed research study published in The Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the USA. They studied cities in China, Italy and the US. The effectiveness of social distancing, stay-at-home orders, and mandated face-covering can be seen in the graphs below. Social distancing alone resulted in a rise in cases, stay at home orders resulted in a very small fall in cases but mandatory face covering was effective in causing a fall in cases in NY.

Contrasting the trends of new infections between NYC and the United States. Daily new confirmed infections in (A) NYC and (B) the United States. The dotted lines represent linear fitting to the data between April 17 and May 9 in NYC and between April 4 and May 9 in the United States. In B, the number in NYC was subtracted from that in the United States. The vertical lines label the dates for social distancing, stay-at-home orders, and mandated face-covering.

Airborne and presymptomatic transmission can only be mitigated by mandatory widespread face-covering/mask wearing, thereby choking the source interhuman virus spread.

Given the anti-masking stance of our 'powers that be' to date, I am not hopeful that the sensible option will be enforced here.

Italy had quite a bit of non-compliance, the US has been half-closed, half-open for a while and who knows what we can believe out of China. As has been said again and again it's apples and oranges in comparing how things were done. We are at a low level , with the disease stable or declining as it has been for some weeks. Our strategy is clearly not bereft of thought nor evidence and has worked.

ZX7R · 15-06-2020 08:33AM

ixoy wrote: »

Has he ever been challenged as to how other countries, lifting their restrictions earlier, haven't experienced this disaster movie? Is it unique to Ireland for him or what?

He refused to appear on both BBC and itv television, stating an unbalanced panel been selected.
The panel for the BBC comprised of
Politician, medical professor in support of easing restrictions an economist and himself keep restrictions.
He offered to appear on both programs if it was just himself stating that it would help reduce the chances of spreading the virus or of himself catching it.
And as far as his letter of petitions up to 300 of the so called medical person's infact don't have doctorates in any medical field or are retired.

ixoy · 15-06-2020 08:36AM

ZX7R wrote: »

And as far as his letter of petitions up to 300 of the so called medical person's infact don't have doctorates in any medical field or are retired.

But it does have our very own Professor Ginger'n'Lemon

growleaves · 15-06-2020 08:40AM

My favourite is the signatory who lists himself as 'wine consultant'. Yeah me too

drunkmonkey · 15-06-2020 08:44AM

And this folks is why we shouldn't be flying,
Passengers with COVID-19 flew on flights to LAX, public not warned
https://www.foxnews.com/health/passenger-covid-19-flew-cross-country-flight-march-public-not-warned

They've pretty much traced it back from a care facility to the doctor.

Covid19 Part XVIII-25,473 in ROI(1,736 deaths) 5,760 in NI (551 deaths)(30/06)Read OP

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