Relaxation of Restrictions, Part IV - Read OP for Mod Warnings

Assetbacked · 11-06-2020 01:21AM

s1ippy wrote: »

Ivan Yates is a pig ignorant buffoon. The only clip they could extract from the Tomás Ryan "interview" was this.

https://twitter.com/TonightVMTV/status/1270844045892423686?s=19

Whatever your views on the virus, nobody should be ok with a self-professed alcoholic, failed bookmaker (unprecedented title?), rejected politician, caricature of a joke of a man with this little intelligence shouting down a neuroscientist.

It's not even legitimate views he's vomiting out half the time. Just reactionary or populist garbage. How did he get into broadcasting. The only solace is that he looks like absolute sh!t so I'd say he doesn't have much more in him. He's an insult to anyone who crosses paths with him in media and people need to just refuse the invitations to his show so he no longer has anybody to yell his bile at.

Tomás Ryan shouldn't be given airtime with his utter nonsense about crushing the curve, irrespective of anyone's opinion of Yates. It is not practical at all therefore shouldn't even be discussed as being an option.

Goldengirl · 11-06-2020 01:28AM

Gregor Samsa wrote: »

Strange, a Google search for "april deaths 2,689" gives only one result that discusses this statistic. It's from gript.ie, which has an obvious slant to the right and is sceptical of the effects of Covid 19 and of the need for the lockdown. Which would be fine if they had the statistics. But the strange thing is, when you click on the link, the article doesn't exist at all on gript.ie. When you search for it on the site itself, nothing comes up. Looks like they withdrew the article?

In any case, you've 6 months to register a death, so not every death from April will be necessarily registered yet. Plus with lockdown, you couldn't do it in person, so had to do it by email or post, which has slowed things down. It took me 3 weeks in all to register my father's death on May 1st, and I still haven't received the death certificates I ordered. We'll have to wait until much later in the year to see the actual death rates for April and May so they can be compared to previous years.

Sorry for your loss

Goldengirl · 11-06-2020 01:36AM

Assetbacked wrote: »

Tomás Ryan shouldn't be given airtime with his utter nonsense about crushing the curve, irrespective of anyone's opinion of Yates. It is not practical at all therefore shouldn't even be discussed as being an option.

What we need is diverse expert opinions on this pandemic and what needs to be done over the next few months , not less.
What a joke !
You all whinging here about NpHET and the government and DoH scientists and those employed by HSE , pooling their opinions to try and provide some sort of plan to get the country through this , but whenever any other scientist or expert gives an opinion it is trashed unless it is something all the anti restrictions gang want to hear!

Make up your minds .

acequion · 11-06-2020 01:53AM

s1ippy wrote: »

Ivan Yates is a pig ignorant buffoon. The only clip they could extract from the Tomás Ryan "interview" was this.

https://twitter.com/TonightVMTV/status/1270844045892423686?s=19

Whatever your views on the virus, nobody should be ok with a self-professed alcoholic, failed bookmaker (unprecedented title?), rejected politician, caricature of a joke of a man with this little intelligence shouting down a neuroscientist.

It's not even legitimate views he's vomiting out half the time. Just reactionary or populist garbage. How did he get into broadcasting. The only solace is that he looks like absolute sh!t so I'd say he doesn't have much more in him. He's an insult to anyone who crosses paths with him in media and people need to just refuse the invitations to his show so he no longer has anybody to yell his bile at.

Wow!! Have you just eaten a pile of lemons or something?? Or have you a personal gripe against Ivan Yates. Because based on your vitriolic words, to say that you bitterly hate the man would be an understatement.

I like Ivan. The fact that he is as you say a self professed alcoholic, failed bookmaker and whatever else is what makes him human and interesting. I didn't see the show tonight but I find his straight talking very refreshing, especially compared to the sound bytes and inane drivel that mainly passes for journalism on the air waves.

acequion · 11-06-2020 01:58AM

Deleted User wrote: »

I don’t think anybody is actually saying that though.
For me at least, a 15 year old dying will always be more sad than an 83 year old dying.

Maybe I’m wrong for feeling that way... ?

Once you hit 70, you’ve had a grand stretch of life. Anybody dying before that has likely missed out on things.

That’s my reasoning at least. Still sad of course.

Your entitled to your view but I think all lives have equal value. The very young, the very old and everything in between. And all deaths are equally sad.

Plus the fact that 70 isn't old nowadays. That's a bare two years after the probable new retirement age. Many turn 70 and get a new lease of life and be no way ready to kick the proverbial bucket.

MickeyLeari · 11-06-2020 07:02AM

https://www.rte.ie/brainstorm/2020/0505/1136496-death-notices-ireland-coronavirus/

Nationally, the number of death notices posted on RIP.ie in April 2020 for the whole of Ireland are the highest on record, but comparable with January 2018 and 2017 when there was a bad flu season. Typically deaths peak in Ireland in the winter are associated with respiratory diseases, including the seasonal flu. The number of death notices posted typically decreases going into April, whereas there is a spike associated with the coronavirus in 2020.

Comparing the magnitude of this spike to the seasonal peak in winter of other years, it could be argued as comparable to the numbers of death notices posted in previous years (January 2018 was the previous maximum). There is increasingly heated debate about whether the unprecedented measures implemented to combat the spread of Covid-19 are necessary to maintain, if excess mortality is comparable to that of the seasonal flu.

Penfailed · 11-06-2020 07:19AM

JRant wrote: »

And already into the second wave no less. According to him we have 2 options. Live with restrictions for years until a vaccine is found or have a "short, sharp lockdown" to get the numbers to zero like New Zealand. Ivan rightly pointed out that we are not new Zealand and are actually part of the European Union with free travel. He also pointed out that the last lockdown was supposed to be for a short period of time and we still haven't come out of it yet.

He should have mentioned to Ivan that other European countries closed their borders at points throughout the pandemic.

MickeyLeari · 11-06-2020 07:34AM

Penfailed wrote: »

He should have mentioned to Ivan that other European countries closed their borders at points throughout the pandemic.

European countries and New Zealand are not comparable. Anyone trying to say otherwise is engaging in fake news.

Penfailed · 11-06-2020 07:38AM

MickeyLeari wrote: »

European countries and New Zealand are not comparable. Anyone trying to say otherwise is engaging in fake news.

That's not the point that I was making. Ivan was saying that we're not the same as NZ as we couldn't close borders due to the fact that we're part of the EU. I'm pointing out that other European countries DID close their borders. That is all. I'm not defending either parties stance, just that one particular point.

VonLuck · 11-06-2020 07:48AM

Assetbacked wrote: »

Tomás Ryan shouldn't be given airtime with his utter nonsense about crushing the curve, irrespective of anyone's opinion of Yates. It is not practical at all therefore shouldn't even be discussed as being an option.

Why exactly do you believe it's not practical?

rovers_runner · 11-06-2020 07:54AM

This "crushing" the curve theory is complete nonsense.
As long as borders are open it only takes one traveller to start it off again and there is no appetite to close borders.

Do people ignore the amount of undiagnosed cancer cases that are building up in the public?
That is something worth worrying about and planning for but alas it's the HSE so no there will just be an apology at the end of that impending problem coming down the tracks.

11-06-2020 08:11AM

MickeyLeari wrote: »

https://www.rte.ie/brainstorm/2020/0505/1136496-death-notices-ireland-coronavirus/

Nationally, the number of death notices posted on RIP.ie in April 2020 for the whole of Ireland are the highest on record, but comparable with January 2018 and 2017 when there was a bad flu season. Typically deaths peak in Ireland in the winter are associated with respiratory diseases, including the seasonal flu. The number of death notices posted typically decreases going into April, whereas there is a spike associated with the coronavirus in 2020.

Comparing the magnitude of this spike to the seasonal peak in winter of other years, it could be argued as comparable to the numbers of death notices posted in previous years (January 2018 was the previous maximum). There is increasingly heated debate about whether the unprecedented measures implemented to combat the spread of Covid-19 are necessary to maintain, if excess mortality is comparable to that of the seasonal flu.

Thing is excess mortality is not comparable to flu season from the very data you linked. The top end of the Historical range for April is 1,000 lower than the April actual, and the mean is 1300 lower. No point in comparing excess deaths in April to January, when the death rate is high in January anyway.

Benimar · 11-06-2020 08:37AM

Do people actually listen to Ivan Yates and take him seriously?

He flip flops so much, he contradicts himself in the same programme. He pushed hard for 1m Social Distancing, citing Denmark and Spain, saying ‘Europe’ use 1m. Within a couple of minutes he is lauding the German model and saying we should copy it directly - of course making sure not mentioning the SD is 1.5m there.

And if we are talking about who he gives air time too, don’t forget Ciara ‘I don’t want my kid to sit the Leaving’ Kelly has a slot on his radio programme.

MickeyLeari · 11-06-2020 08:42AM

[Deleted User] wrote: »

Thing is excess mortality is not comparable to flu season from the very data you linked. The top end of the Historical range for April is 1,000 lower than the April actual, and the mean is 1300 lower. No point in comparing excess deaths in April to January, when the death rate is high in January anyway.

Really. Tony Holohan himself pointed to this research and similar research by Seamus Coffey as important in understanding the excess mortality. I have no doubt that the lock down measures were a factor in keeping the figure down and we will have a better picture in 12 months time.

Jackman25 · 11-06-2020 08:48AM

s1ippy wrote: »

Ivan Yates is a pig ignorant buffoon. The only clip they could extract from the Tomás Ryan "interview" was this.

https://twitter.com/TonightVMTV/status/1270844045892423686?s=19

Whatever your views on the virus, nobody should be ok with a self-professed alcoholic, failed bookmaker (unprecedented title?), rejected politician, caricature of a joke of a man with this little intelligence shouting down a neuroscientist.

It's not even legitimate views he's vomiting out half the time. Just reactionary or populist garbage. How did he get into broadcasting. The only solace is that he looks like absolute sh!t so I'd say he doesn't have much more in him. He's an insult to anyone who crosses paths with him in media and people need to just refuse the invitations to his show so he no longer has anybody to yell his bile at.

You might want to lay off the drink yourself.

Jackman25 · 11-06-2020 08:50AM

Goldengirl wrote: »

This is an example of what we were talking about earlier and you have been one of the main proponents of this insensitive and offensive commentary.
How are deaths in nursing homes and End of Life patients not important?

Jackman 25 ..take note .

Your just trying to take offence where there is none. Nowhere does he/she say that those deaths are not important.

Pete_Cavan · 11-06-2020 08:53AM

Goldengirl wrote: »

What we need is diverse expert opinions on this pandemic and what needs to be done over the next few months , not less.
What a joke !
You all whinging here about NpHET and the government and DoH scientists and those employed by HSE , pooling their opinions to try and provide some sort of plan to get the country through this , but whenever any other scientist or expert gives an opinion it is trashed unless it is something all the anti restrictions gang want to hear!

Make up your minds .

But science should be evidence based, what evidence is there for the continuation of restrictions until late July? There are numerous countries into their fifth week of having reopened, including schools/restaurants/bars/hairdressers/etc, and show no signs of a resurgence in cases. They have new cases every day (which is totally normal and nothing to fret over) but are continuing to lift restrictions further. It's a bit hard to take all these experts here seriously when they ignore the real life experiments happening in front of them in favour of an alternative approach for which there is no supporting evidence.

Pete_Cavan · 11-06-2020 09:02AM

[Deleted User] wrote: »

Thing is excess mortality is not comparable to flu season from the very data you linked. The top end of the Historical range for April is 1,000 lower than the April actual, and the mean is 1300 lower. No point in comparing excess deaths in April to January, when the death rate is high in January anyway.

Surely we should be comparing to a January when there was another factor influencing death rates. Saying that deaths are up on a normal April doesn't tell much, saying deaths are comparable to a January in flu season gives a relevant scale. Deaths being above a normal April is to be expected given the variable this year that is Covid-19.

MickeyLeari · 11-06-2020 09:10AM

Pete_Cavan wrote: »

Surely we should be comparing to a January when there was another factor influencing death rates. Saying that deaths are up on a normal April doesn't tell much, saying deaths are comparable to a January in flu season gives a relevant scale. Deaths being above a normal April is to be expected given the variable this year that is Covid-19.

The reality is that we need to look at the full year/18 months. Vulnerable and elderly people who died from/with Covid-19 may well have passed away within 6/9 months. We will probably also need to focus that analysis on the demographic most affected.

11-06-2020 09:13AM

Pete_Cavan wrote: »

Surely we should be comparing to a January when there was another factor influencing death rates. Saying that deaths are up on a normal April doesn't tell much, saying deaths are comparable to a January in flu season gives a relevant scale. Deaths being above a normal April is to be expected given the variable this year that is Covid-19.

There is common cause and special cause variation. Annual Flu season is common cause variation and causes a spike in January every year (its not just flu by the way that causes winter to have a higher death rate). Covid is special cause variation and by comparing against a dissimilar time period where other factors are at play, any conclusions are confounded by those other factors. To make a valid comparison, where possible, the only difference should be in the factor you are trying to measure (covid). So you measure the specific time period where covid was active or the entire year, but not a time with other factors not present when covid was present

prunudo · 11-06-2020 09:16AM

Did anyone hear the barber on Newstalk breakfast saying he wouldn't be installing perspex screening or wearing a mask unless the government make it mandatory. Basically saying he'll follow the guidelines and if a staff member or customer want to wear one that will be their own choice.
The pure shock in the presenters voice that someone was making their own call on this even though its 3 weeks away and the virus is non existent in the community.
Personally I say fair play to him for making that call. I'm sure he'll loose some customers over it but there will be plenty who will welcome getting their hair cut without all the rigmarole.

facehugger99 · 11-06-2020 09:17AM

When they run the analysis of deaths over 12/18 months compared with a 'normal' year it will expose just how fluffed the Covid-19 fatality rate hes been by including end-of-life patients.

The hysterical over-reaction and economic devastation has been completely disproportionate to the actual dangers of this virus to the vast majority of the population.

And anyone who is claiming that an 85 years old dying from Covid-19 is morally equivalent to a young child dying due to a lack of cancer screening/treatment is a moron.

average_runner · 11-06-2020 09:18AM

Ginger n Lemon wrote: »

They just needed to hold on for few more weeks

Four Monsoon and Accessorize outlets to close in Republic
British fashion retailers fell into administration late on Tuesday

Two stores on Cork’s Patrick Street, one on Grafton Street in Dublin and one in the Market Cross Shopping Centre in Kilkenny will permanently shut as a result of the deal

In total, as part of the deal 35 stores across Ireland and Britain will shut with about 545 staff being made redundant. The company will retain five stores in the Republic.

https://www.irishtimes.com/business/retail-and-services/four-monsoon-and-accessorize-outlets-to-close-in-republic-1.4275371?mode=sample&auth-failed=1&pw-origin=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.irishtimes.com%2Fbusiness%2Fretail-and-services%2Ffour-monsoon-and-accessorize-outlets-to-close-in-republic-1.4275371

Another one bites the dust.

I hope its a bit more clear why I want other businesses, you know cinemas, barbers, gyms, pubs all to open. Gives them a better chance to avoid this fate. These guys were lucky that they were bought and some stores will remain open but jobs will be lost and stores will be closed

Can you please start to do your homework before you post. These stores were in trouble over 2 years ago, like Debenhams and others.

Pete_Cavan · 11-06-2020 09:24AM

MickeyLeari wrote: »

The reality is that we need to look at the full year/18 months. Vulnerable and elderly people who died from/with Covid-19 may well have passed away within 6/9 months. We will probably also need to focus that analysis on the demographic most affected.

Yes I alluded to Covid-19 reducing deaths for the remainder of the year yesterday. Another factor though is deaths caused by the lockdown delaying diagnosis/treatment of other illnesses, although it could take many years for that to fully manifest itself.

the kelt · 11-06-2020 09:28AM

s1ippy wrote: »

Ivan Yates is a pig ignorant buffoon. The only clip they could extract from the Tomás Ryan "interview" was this.

https://twitter.com/TonightVMTV/status/1270844045892423686?s=19

Whatever your views on the virus, nobody should be ok with a self-professed alcoholic, failed bookmaker (unprecedented title?), rejected politician, caricature of a joke of a man with this little intelligence shouting down a neuroscientist.

It's not even legitimate views he's vomiting out half the time. Just reactionary or populist garbage. How did he get into broadcasting. The only solace is that he looks like absolute sh!t so I'd say he doesn't have much more in him. He's an insult to anyone who crosses paths with him in media and people need to just refuse the invitations to his show so he no longer has anybody to yell his bile at.

So you dont like him, disagree with his views on things and as a result take solace in the fact that another human doesnt look quite well and may not have much time left. Well how compassionate.

The ironic thing is the people who actually like this and call for compassion elsewhere, hypocritical or what!

Pete_Cavan · 11-06-2020 09:29AM

[Deleted User] wrote: »

There is common cause and special cause variation. Annual Flu season is common cause variation and causes a spike in January every year (its not just flu by the way that causes winter to have a higher death rate). Covid is special cause variation and by comparing against a dissimilar time period where other factors are at play, any conclusions are confounded by those other factors. To make a valid comparison, where possible, the only difference should be in the factor you are trying to measure (covid). So you measure the specific time period where covid was active or the entire year, but not a time with other factors not present when covid was present

My point is that the January comparison gives a relevant scale. Saying deaths were higher in an April when a new virus was circulating than an April where no such factors were present doesn't really tell you a lot.

Ginger n Lemon · 11-06-2020 09:30AM

average_runner wrote: »

Can you please start to do your homework before you post. These stores were in trouble over 2 years ago, like Debenhams and others.

Are you serious?

A bit like 85 year olds with heart disease were in trouble before covid came?

Do you really think businesses operate with huge cash reserves and healthy profit margins?

Your complete lack of understand of ACTUAL jobs being lost is frightening. Why didnt you tell Monsoon employees to look for a new job last year? genius :rolleyes:

Ginger n Lemon · 11-06-2020 09:36AM

Excellent news to start off your day

Reopening of hairdressers and barbers set to be brought forward to June 29th

On Wednesday Taoiseach Leo Varadkar said hairdressers could be allowed to reopen earlier than previously planned, and he described as “too slow” the Government’s initial five-phase road map to reopen the country from the coronavirus lockdown by August.

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/ireland/irish-news/reopening-of-hairdressers-and-barbers-set-to-be-brought-forward-to-june-29th-1.4276398

Dont be cutting your own hair now, less than 3 weeks left

the kelt · 11-06-2020 09:37AM

Goldengirl wrote: »

This is an example of what we were talking about earlier and you have been one of the main proponents of this insensitive and offensive commentary.
How are deaths in nursing homes and End of Life patients not important?

Jackman 25 ..take note .

Please, you're seeing stuff thats not there about a poster saying the lives of end of life patients isnt important and playing the virtue card yet on the same thread thanked a poster who said the following about a 60 year old man "The only solace is that he looks like absolute sh!t so I'd say he doesn't have much more in him"

11-06-2020 09:41AM

facehugger99 wrote: »

When they run the analysis of deaths over 12/18 months compared with a 'normal' year it will expose just how fluffed the Covid-19 fatality rate hes been by including end-of-life patients.

The hysterical over-reaction and economic devastation has been completely disproportionate to the actual dangers of this virus to the vast majority of the population.

And anyone who is claiming that an 85 years old dying from Covid-19 is morally equivalent to a young child dying due to a lack of cancer screening/treatment is a moron.

I fully agree with this. Unfortunately someone will be along any minute now to tell us that lockdown is the only reason 60K more didn't die...

People don't seem to be able to grasp that the majority of deaths are end of life patients with very serious medical issues.

Its not a bunch of 50 year olds with slightly high blood pressure dying.

And before anyone mentions it, yes it is sad that old people die. But they are going to die either way. Be it the serious illness they are suffering from, old age in general or some other complication such as FLU / infection.

Relaxation of Restrictions, Part IV - **Read OP for Mod Warnings**

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Relaxation of Restrictions, Part IV - Read OP for Mod Warnings