Covid19 Part XVIII-25,473 in ROI(1,736 deaths) 5,760 in NI (551 deaths)(30/06)Read OP

https://twitter.com/orlaryan/status/1268826895480651776

JDD wrote: »

I know this is the equivalent of "my neighbour's sister's cousin saw the army getting ready to take over the streets" on WhatsApp but I am going to post it anyway with the obvious health warning that this is merely hearsay...

My neighbor is a midwife in Holles St. They've had nine new mums test positive for coronavirus since the start of March and they are taking part in some kind of research project on long term effects of covid with consultants from the Mater. She was speaking to one of the consultants on Monday - I think she said John Lambert but I can't be sure - who is of the opinion that coronavirus will be essentially eradicated as a severe illness in Ireland by the end of the month. He said that, from what he has seen, the virus has gotten weaker over the past month, people being hospitalized are recovering quicker, the proportion of people under 60 being hospitalized is lower now than a month ago and apparently they only now have four covid patients in the ICU. While the virus will stick around, we will not see the levels of infection Italy and Spain had even when we lift restrictions.

Now, this is only one man's opinion. NPHET obviously think differently. Doctors have different opinions about what is going to happen all the time. But I do find it encouraging that this might happen, that this consultant is on the coal face in the Mater so should have an opinion worth listening to, and it does tie in with what that consultant in the hospital in Milan was saying last week about the virus in Italy getting weaker and less potent.

I think this will happen. The Virus has already hit the most vulnerable. It is now struggling due to a number of factors. Cross immunity looks to be a factor. All this will take years to prove scientifically which could lead to society struggling to move past this time. Their is likely to be surges of this now and again. Maybe this winter but I don't think we will see anything like the first wave in Italy and throughout Europe. The Mathematical models were extremely flawed in hindsight as the virus has been detected in France in December. Testing has always been playing catch up and this has skewed the data and our understanding of the virus.That is now not the case More seems to be known now and hopefully scientific studies can begin to prove the theories which I believe are true. Still it is wise to be wary and vigilant but also to have hope for the future that society can move forward from this pandemic

setanta1984 wrote: »

Facebook groups and The Sun? Ah come on now.

We just need The Daily Mail for the trifecta!

JDD wrote: »

I know this is the equivalent of "my neighbour's sister's cousin saw the army getting ready to take over the streets" on WhatsApp but I am going to post it anyway with the obvious health warning that this is merely hearsay...

My neighbor is a midwife in Holles St. They've had nine new mums test positive for coronavirus since the start of March and they are taking part in some kind of research project on long term effects of covid with consultants from the Mater. She was speaking to one of the consultants on Monday - I think she said John Lambert but I can't be sure - who is of the opinion that coronavirus will be essentially eradicated as a severe illness in Ireland by the end of the month. He said that, from what he has seen, the virus has gotten weaker over the past month, people being hospitalized are recovering quicker, the proportion of people under 60 being hospitalized is lower now than a month ago and apparently they only now have four covid patients in the ICU. While the virus will stick around, we will not see the levels of infection Italy and Spain had even when we lift restrictions.

Now, this is only one man's opinion. NPHET obviously think differently. Doctors have different opinions about what is going to happen all the time. But I do find it encouraging that this might happen, that this consultant is on the coal face in the Mater so should have an opinion worth listening to, and it does tie in with what that consultant in the hospital in Milan was saying last week about the virus in Italy getting weaker and less potent.

It seems going by reports around europe it maybe a possibility it’s weakening. But according to the experts on the thread it’s probably unlikely for now .

Regarding the weakening theory, a couple of alternative scenarios spring to mind:-

1) Its already gotten the weakest so those being affected now are not getting such a strong reaction

or

2) With less infections and therefor less admittances to the hospitals there is far lower viral load in the wards to drive this on so patients systems are not so overwhelmed.

Obviously heres hoping that it is a weaker strain now circulating, time will tell.

Micky 32 wrote: »

It seems going by reports around europe it maybe a possibility it’s weakening. But according to the experts on the thread it’s probably unlikely for now .

Away with the fairies read on facebook that the virus is just hiding in the bushes for now and will pounce again for a second wave soon... soon... 1 week after B&Q opens... or 2 weeks, well really it takes 3 weeks to see the results. Oh it has been 3 weeks already? Well... next week

I don't know Rusty, for me the 3rd and 2nd to last paragraph is most interesting

Many scientists voiced concern about the study, which had already been corrected last week because some location data was wrong.

Nearly 150 doctors signed an open letter to The Lancet calling the article's conclusions into question and asking to make public the peer review comments that preceded publication.

But it is also quite telling that many people in their rush to discredit Trump actually discredited the truth and themselves.
And this perhaps reveals another truth that they are liars or useful idiots.

But seeing a pillar such as The Lancet fall to quackery and bias is another sign of how the centre is not holding in modern society.

Away With The Fairies wrote: »

A Facebook group with people recovering from the virus... God forbid I try and learn what others are going through.

We're getting mixed messages from the experts. Ibuprofen is bad, now good. Respiratory disease, blood disorder. Smoking bad, smoking good.

I don't know about you, but I'd really like the truth in this. Doctors are still learning in this. But let's ignore the very people dealing with it because it's not a two week illness, so they must be making it all up.

Have a read of this, but that might make you care.

https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2020/06/covid-19-coronavirus-longterm-symptoms-months/612679/?utm_content=edit-promo&utm_campaign=the-atlantic&utm_source=facebook&utm_term=2020-06-04T20%253A26%253A56&utm_medium=social&fbclid=IwAR32wuFzCBkhmjHz6mxPuIr8Q-0-vBxvapLmJ-cDUUGk9W6gze2rreEuSeg

It's a novel virus recommendations and medical advice will change as more information is required and reviewed.
It will be a constant and evolving situation.
It's not a that expert's are giving mixed messages it's simply advice and science are evolving

Away With The Fairies wrote: »

I'm not dreading the disease. It's the lack of information. We're being told different things every single day about this. Ibuprofen bad, Ibuprofen good. Respiratory disease, blood disorder.

Yes I understand that this is with us. Yet, the very way this spreads is through respiratory droplets, and with a long incubation period, people are out there carrying on as normal as if it's not out there. Spreads by just talking, aerosols that just hang in the air for hours afterwards for someone else to breathe and get infected. I just don't understand how people don't understand the basics of this.

Edit: have to edit, we shouldn't forget the cigarette smoking. Smoking bad, smoking good.

The issue isn't the lack of information. The issue is really too much information - particularly too much information without proper context. The media have been reporting on every little finding as they happen. FB groups, Twitter and boards like this amplify that. Plus we have all the anecdotal stories. In terms of openness of information, that's great. But in terms of useful, factual and actionable information, it's not so good. In a situation as novel and fast moving as this pandemic, of course things are going to change based on the new information and research that is going on all the time. This isn't the fault of science or doctors - this is how science and medicine works. The problem is that people who aren't scientists just expect answers, and then to be done with it. Reality just isn't like that.

You post is a great example. You say "Spreads by just talking". That's actually not accurate. It's been found - in laboratory conditions - that virus particles can be present in aerosols from talking. That's a fact. What isn't a fact is the notion that the virus can spread in this way. There's loads of other factors to take into account - the viral dose in those particles, how long the virus survives, how long it is viable to cause infection, dispersal from air currents, environmental effects from UV light, chemicals, etc in different situations (outdoors, indoors open area, indoors confined area), air temperature, and so on and on and on.

You're baffled that people can't understand the basics, and yet you're far from understanding the most basic thing of all - that there is no "basic" to understand. It's a complex, complicated and ever-changing situation, and you just can't expect easy answers at the click of your fingers.

Away With The Fairies wrote: »

And I'm being shot down for wanting to know more.

You're being shot down for dismissing science and promoting Facebook group discussions.

That quote from Paul Reid this morning is very interesting - 87% of positive close contacts were asymptomatic. That’s a very very high percentage.