Covid19 Part XVII-24,841 in ROI (1,639 deaths) 4,679 in NI (518 deaths)(28/05)Read OP

igCorcaigh · 26-05-2020 07:34PM

Part of me feels we're over the worst of it, but I'm still apprehensive.

timsey tiger · 26-05-2020 07:44PM

Arghus wrote: »

https://euromomo.eu/graphs-and-maps

If you go down halfway through that page you'll be able to find individual graphs for each of the 24 jurisdictions included in the survey, showing their rates of excess mortality, often attributed to influenza, going back to late 2017.

Italy is there, showing a few peaks and troughs and then a sudden huge spike in the early months of 2020.

The UK is probably the worst looking one though.

Sweden doesn't look so good, on the graphic at the bottom either, not as bad as UK mind.

Plumbthedepths · 26-05-2020 08:13PM

So Dr Holohan doesn't want the public to blame anyone for the nursing home deaths.

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/health/coronavirus-need-to-move-away-from-the-language-of-blame-holohan-says-1.4263139?mode=amp

FishOnABike · 26-05-2020 08:20PM

owlbethere wrote: »

Agreed. It will only burn out when it runs out from hosts. Either by people dying from the virus or becoming immune. That's the only way it will burn out. A vaccine would help too. I don't see it happening to be honest. There's far too many people who want to rushbkut and continue life as it was before this emerged and that's going to bring risks of transmissions.

There's a third way. If it is too difficult to spread to enough new hosts to sustain the virus in the population.

In a way this is what we are doing if we maintain the replication rate below 1. Each generation of the virus there are fewer active cases (hosts) until gets to a very small number of quarantined active cases that fail to infect a new host.

As long as there is human interaction and travel it will probably not be completely eradicated but a sustained very low number should be realisable.

Onesea · 26-05-2020 08:28PM

Dante7 wrote: »

I doubt he'll live to 65. Someone who knows him in real life is bound to kick him to death long before then.

That's not on

Beasty · 26-05-2020 08:39PM

Onesea wrote: »

That's not on

Please report rather than react. The mods will then deal with it

Thanks

BattleCorp · 26-05-2020 08:57PM

polesheep wrote: »

Come back in six months time and these things will be no more than a distant memory.

Nah. It'll take a bit longer for things to get back to somewhat normality.

I think the big problem will be the winter flu season when we all have sniffles, coughs and colds.

You can't tell the difference too handy between a cough caused by COVID-19 or a cough caused by a common cold. Cough in a workplace now and you'll be ran out the door as quick as you can blink. What will happen in winter if this virus is still knocking around? There'll be major absenteeism I reckon as companies won't be able to take a chance on whether the person has a cold or has COVID-19.

BattleCorp · 26-05-2020 08:59PM

igCorcaigh wrote: »

Part of me feels we're over the worst of it, but I'm still apprehensive.

I think we are over the worst of it because the social distancing thing works. But is it sustainable in the long term, that'll be tough.

Rob A. Bank · 26-05-2020 09:03PM

FishOnABike wrote: »

There's a third way. If it is too difficult to spread to enough new hosts to sustain the virus in the population.

In a way this is what we are doing if we maintain the replication rate below 1. Each generation of the virus there are fewer active cases (hosts) until gets to a very small number of quarantined active cases that fail to infect a new host.

As long as there is human interaction and travel it will probably not be completely eradicated but a sustained very low number should be realisable.

With a bit of co-operation North and South it should be possible to do a Sligo or a Kerry on the virus. We should be urging the Government to switch from a strategy of 'living with Covid-19' to trying to eradicate the virus.

The current approach of living with the virus will mean “extensive and expensive restrictions” for the foreseeable future. If we clear it from the island, life can return to near normality. We can "crush” Covid-19 as other countries like South Korea, New Zealand, Australia, Austria, Greece, China, and Iceland have done.

Let's do it !

"Leading experts in public health have joined forces to canvass public support for tighter restrictions across the island of Ireland to “crush” Covid-19 and eliminate the risk of further outbreaks and lockdowns into the future."

https://www.irishexaminer.com/breakingnews/ireland/experts-call-to-crush-covid-19-with-all-island-restrictions-1001879.html

Sanjuro · 26-05-2020 09:06PM

Plumbthedepths wrote: »

So Dr Holohan doesn't want the public to blame anyone for the nursing home deaths.

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/health/coronavirus-need-to-move-away-from-the-language-of-blame-holohan-says-1.4263139?mode=amp

No accountability then? Hardly surprising from someone largely responsible for the cervical check fiasco.

PowerToWait · 26-05-2020 09:08PM

Rob A. Bank wrote: »

With a bit of co-operation North and South it should be possible to do a Sligo or a Kerry on the virus. We should be urging the Government to switch from a strategy of 'living with Covid-19' to trying to eradicate the virus.

The current approach of living with the virus will mean “extensive and expensive restrictions” for the foreseeable future. If we clear it from the island, life can return to near normality. We can "crush” Covid-19 as other countries like South Korea, New Zealand, Australia, Austria, Greece, China, and Iceland have done.

Let's do it !

Too many want their hair done, frappucinos and a few pints. Also apparently mass suicides are only a few days away and THE ECONOMY.

bekker · 26-05-2020 09:14PM

Plumbthedepths wrote: »

So Dr Holohan doesn't want the public to blame anyone for the nursing home deaths.

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/health/coronavirus-need-to-move-away-from-the-language-of-blame-holohan-says-1.4263139?mode=amp

Turkey and Christmas comes to mind.

2ndcoming · 26-05-2020 09:17PM

Rob A. Bank wrote: »

With a bit of co-operation North and South it should be possible to do a Sligo or a Kerry on the virus. We should be urging the Government to switch from a strategy of 'living with Covid-19' to trying to eradicate the virus.

The current approach of living with the virus will mean “extensive and expensive restrictions” for the foreseeable future. If we clear it from the island, life can return to near normality. We can "crush” Covid-19 as other countries like South Korea, New Zealand, Australia, Austria, Greece, China, and Iceland have done.

Let's do it !

It's not an option for us because the North is still part of the clusterfúck that is the UK.

Pulsating Star · 26-05-2020 09:18PM

timsey tiger wrote: »

Sweden doesn't look so good, on the graphic at the bottom either, not as bad as UK mind.

If the virus burns itself out in one wave, (I can’t understand why it would)they will have unwittingly made completely the wrong call for no real gain. Their economy is no better off than their neighbours.
On the other hand if it comes around again they have some little advantage with immunity.
They were brave, I’ll give then that.

1800_Ladladlad · 26-05-2020 09:20PM

I find it to be both odd and hilarious that US media covers the story varadkar but Irish media completely ignores the story. I wouldn't be surprised if his PR team came up with the idea and he did it on purpose for the attention. The sight of him with his top off turns my stomach. Minor note: Where did he get his sunglasses? Mr price?

stephenjmcd · 26-05-2020 09:20PM

PowerToWait wrote: »

Too many want their hair done, frappucinos and a few pints. Also apparently mass suicides are only a few days away and THE ECONOMY.

Or if you'd have watched and listened to Killeens interviews over the last few days you'd know he's a head case who has little common sense. He suggested locking down for another 4 months. Can you not see what's wrong with all of that ?? Complete eradication isn't in Irelands plan, there'll be hopefully only small numbers of cases into the future, that's living alongside, not giving 5 million people lockdown restrictions for a handful of cases

Metroid diorteM · 26-05-2020 09:21PM

There have been a number of positive developments on this virus. I just wanted to share that I am thankful to God for the following:

Children in general have been spared
Vitamin D deficiency linked early on
Reinfection unlikely
Not long term (like HIV)
Physical distancing helped
Deaths have started to drop off

I hope for healing for everyone in the thread. Take care!

Jinglejangle69 · 26-05-2020 09:26PM

1800_Ladladlad wrote: »

I find it to be both odd and hilarious that US media covers the story varadkar but Irish media completely ignores the story. I wouldn't be surprised if his PR team came up with the idea and he did it on purpose for the attention. The sight of him with his top off turns my stomach. Minor note: Where did he get his sunglasses? Mr price?

As far as I'm aware social gatherings outdoor are allowed with up to 4 people.

Nice you slag someone about their body appearance.

Says a lot about you.

Were you the bully in school?

26-05-2020 09:31PM

BattleCorp wrote: »

Nah. It'll take a bit longer for things to get back to somewhat normality.

I think the big problem will be the winter flu season when we all have sniffles, coughs and colds.

You can't tell the difference too handy between a cough caused by COVID-19 or a cough caused by a common cold. Cough in a workplace now and you'll be ran out the door as quick as you can blink. What will happen in winter if this virus is still knocking around? There'll be major absenteeism I reckon as companies won't be able to take a chance on whether the person has a cold or has COVID-19.

If you can work from home don't think that will be the case.

If you can't it will depend on the company and the line manager I think. Plenty would be telling staff it's just a cold come in or else last year, can't really see a difference this year either.
Same with some workers too, if they don't get sick pay, they are going to go in to pay the bills.

Moving to a new company next month, while I will work from home permanently as negotiated in my contract, they have actually told all staff that they will be working from home until January 2021'

Charles Babbage · 26-05-2020 09:32PM

igCorcaigh wrote: »

To get back to the question of grim statistics though. I recently listen to a podcast where someone mentioned the 2009 swine flu pandemic causing around half a million deaths

Seemed like a high estimate to me.

Wiki says this, with 500,000 at the upper estimate:

18,449 (lab-confirmed deaths reported to WHO; flu patients were generally not tested)

284,000 (range 151,700–575,400) (CDC and WHO estimate)

It's a big variation from 18k lab confirmed to 500k estimated.

I wonder what the true scale of this pandemic is.
We might never know.

We'll never know, but excess mortality figures like Euromomo give us a reasonable basis for estimation. Excess mortality at present has been high in places like England and Belgium.

BattleCorp · 26-05-2020 09:35PM

DubInMeath wrote: »

If you can work from home don't think that will be the case.

If you can't it will depend on the company and the line manager I think. Plenty would be telling staff it's just a cold come in or else last year, can't really see a difference this year either.
Same with some workers too, if they don't get sick pay, they are going to go in to pay the bills.

Moving to a new company next month, while I will work from home permanently as negotiated in my contract, they have actually told all staff that they will be working from home until January 2021'

If a line manager/company owner etc. lets someone come into/stay in work while they are coughing, snorting and spluttering under the impression that it's just a cold, and it turns out that it was COVID-19.......... and then work colleagues catch COVID-19 from that person, it might leave the company open to personal injury claims.

Wibbs · 26-05-2020 09:36PM

Sanjuro wrote: »

No accountability then? Hardly surprising from someone largely responsible for the cervical check fiasco.

Aye S, shocked I wasn't to hear that clanger. Has the man no shame? Silly rhetorical question on my part.

Jim_Hodge · 26-05-2020 09:39PM

1800_Ladladlad wrote: »

I find it to be both odd and hilarious that US media covers the story varadkar but Irish media completely ignores the story. I wouldn't be surprised if his PR team came up with the idea and he did it on purpose for the attention. The sight of him with his top off turns my stomach. Minor note: Where did he get his sunglasses? Mr price?

Media here ignored it because it was a non-story; there was nothing breaking restrictions. As for why seeing a man in his 40s with his top off offends your sensibilities so much is more worrying.

Rob A. Bank · 26-05-2020 09:43PM

2ndcoming wrote: »

It's not an option for us because the North is still part of the clusterfúck that is the UK.

The numbers in the North are not that different than our own, per head of population, and an order of magnitude better than on the island next door.

Dr. Paisley co-operated when animal health was a stake during the 2001 foot and mouth epidemic. An all island approach was very successful against that virus.

I fail to see why that kind of co-operation would not be possible again to clear and defend the island from this effing virus.

AlmightyCushion · 26-05-2020 09:59PM

1800_Ladladlad wrote: »

I find it to be both odd and hilarious that US media covers the story varadkar but Irish media completely ignores the story. I wouldn't be surprised if his PR team came up with the idea and he did it on purpose for the attention. The sight of him with his top off turns my stomach. Minor note: Where did he get his sunglasses? Mr price?

Irish media hasn't ignored it. It was covered in loads of them. Google varadker phoenix park and you'll get articles from rte, Irish times, Irish independent, Irish mirror, Dublin live, extra.ie, Irish examiner and the sun. I stopped scrolling after that. How do people come up with this nonsense.

stephenjmcd · 26-05-2020 10:00PM

BattleCorp wrote: »

If a line manager/company owner etc. lets someone come into/stay in work while they are coughing, snorting and spluttering under the impression that it's just a cold, and it turns out that it was COVID-19.......... and then work colleagues catch COVID-19 from that person, it might leave the company open to personal injury claims.

Good luck proving any claim like that. There'll be no proof you picked it up in the workplace, simple defence could have picked it up on public transport.

bekker · 26-05-2020 10:04PM

Rob A. Bank wrote: »

The numbers in the North are not that different than our own, per head of population, and an order of magnitude better than on the island next door.

Dr. Paisley co-operated when animal health was a stake during the 2001 foot and mouth epidemic. An all island approach was very successful against that virus.

I fail to see why that kind of co-operation would not be possible again to clear and defend the island from this effing virus.

Arlane Foster is no Ian Paisley, but that being said, UK policy from London allowed him to take the course he did.

Currently UK policy is at odds with Irish policy, and NI is unable to adopt an all-island policy simply because London won't fund it.

Dr. Bre · 26-05-2020 10:10PM

Jim_Hodge wrote: »

Media here ignored it because it was a non-story; there was nothing breaking restrictions. As for why seeing a man in his 40s with his top off offends your sensibilities so much is more worrying.

Hopefully he had suncream on

Arghus · 26-05-2020 10:25PM

1800_Ladladlad wrote: »

I find it to be both odd and hilarious that US media covers the story varadkar but Irish media completely ignores the story. I wouldn't be surprised if his PR team came up with the idea and he did it on purpose for the attention. The sight of him with his top off turns my stomach. Minor note: Where did he get his sunglasses? Mr price?

Media ignores the story?

It was literally on front page of every newspaper.

Mwengwe · 26-05-2020 10:26PM

BattleCorp wrote: »

It won't burn itself out by the end of June. Not a chance. And if it did burn itself out, you'd only need someone to come back into the country with it and we'd have it again.

The social distancing thing is what will keep the numbers low, hopefully very low, so that can't be totally abandoned.

Personally I think it would be a mistake to abandon the 2m rule and replace it with a 1m rule. 1m simply isn't far enough away. I fear the Government will make that decision for business reasons rather than public health reasons.

It also gives too much leeway. Sometimes I'm not even sure if I'm standing 2 metres away from someone, but at least you're probably guaranteed to be at least 1 metre. Whereas if they reduce it the margin of error reduces too.

Covid19 Part XVII-24,841 in ROI (1,639 deaths) 4,679 in NI (518 deaths)(28/05)Read OP

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