Covid19 Part XVII-24,841 in ROI (1,639 deaths) 4,679 in NI (518 deaths)(28/05)Read OP

igCorcaigh · 26-05-2020 05:35PM

BattleCorp wrote: »

Yes, the virus will eventually burn out, but that won't be for a while. We need a huge amount of the population to have gotten the virus and survived. I doubt 10% of the population have had it at this stage. But we don't know that for sure.

We really need reliable serology testing at scale.

Anyone know when the contact tracing app is due? They had said May.

An Ciarraioch · 26-05-2020 05:36PM

Only 9 counties actually record cases in the latest table:

https://twitter.com/higginsdavidw/status/1265335472550789121

is_that_so · 26-05-2020 05:37PM

CMO becoming more robust in his responses as we have well and truly got to the blame game phase.

BattleCorp · 26-05-2020 05:37PM

kwestfan08 wrote: »

What do you reckon will change permanently?

Some people will stay working from home or will work from home on a hybrid basis.

Some businesses that closed because of the virus will never open up again.

Screens in shops and places like that are probably there to stay.

Some people will get into the habit of social distancing and will try to keep their distance wherever possible.

It will affect high street shops too. Many people who never shopped online will continue to do so now that they have popped that cherry.

is_that_so · 26-05-2020 05:41PM

igCorcaigh wrote: »

We really need reliable serology testing at scale.

Anyone know when the contact tracing app is due? They had said May.

There is a little less enthusiasm over the whole technology approach. Commentary on it of late is that it would only play a minor part.

BattleCorp · 26-05-2020 05:43PM

is_that_so wrote: »

There is a little less enthusiasm over the whole technology approach. Commentary on it of late is that it would only play a minor part.

A huge number of people won't engage with it either so that would seriously reduce the effectiveness of such an app.

is_that_so · 26-05-2020 05:44PM

BattleCorp wrote: »

A huge number of people won't engage with it either so that would seriously reduce the effectiveness of such an app.

Yeah, I read that Singapore had a take up rate of under 20%.

stephenjmcd · 26-05-2020 05:50PM

BattleCorp wrote: »

Some people will stay working from home or will work from home on a hybrid basis.

Some businesses that closed because of the virus will never open up again.

Screens in shops and places like that are probably there to stay.

Some people will get into the habit of social distancing and will try to keep their distance wherever possible.

It will affect high street shops too. Many people who never shopped online will continue to do so now that they have popped that cherry.

So essentially back to normal. I dont see much change there. The screens are better for security in shops anyway.

Businesses will close we all know that, it's going to be a rough recession so it's going to happen.

You actually think people wont go back into shops ? People are and will revert back to old habits, shopping, socialising etc. Humans are creature of habits, work from home will have a take up but not to the levels people think.

Wishful thinking that there's going to be major changes.

Arghus · 26-05-2020 05:50PM

Onesea wrote: »

Has the seasonal flu and pneumonia taken a holiday?
Where are the stats for the past winter of either ilness in any of the European countries.
With all the testing going on, surely some of the people who were tested negative for 19 should have at least shown positives for other corona types.So would this be the year to have better stats on common cold and seasonal flu.

The age of today's victims? Location? Any other ailments amoung today's casualties?

There's an organisation called EUROMOMO which, according to their site -

EuroMOMO is a European mortality monitoring activity, aiming to detect and measure excess deaths related to seasonal influenza, pandemics and other public health threats.

Official national mortality statistics are provided weekly from the 24 European countries in the EuroMOMO collaborative network, supported by the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control (ECDC) and the World Health Organization (WHO).

They measure excess deaths from things like seasonal flu across different jurisdictions in Europe. It's pretty rock solid and reliable data.

Most of their findings are available in very clear graphs and charts.

https://euromomo.eu/graphs-and-maps/

There's a dramatic and clearly visible increase in the early months of 2020 of excess deaths across Europe, in all age groups, apart from the under 15.

Once you look at the chart measuring excess death across all ages, which compares data from 2018, 2019 and available data from 2020, it's pretty dramatic. 2020 is almost literally off the charts.

And bear in mind that measuring excess deaths attributable to influenza is their main function - so influenza deaths are already included to begin with. The additional impact of Covid is undeniable. This thing is far, far more lethal than the regular flu.

BattleCorp · 26-05-2020 05:53PM

stephenjmcd wrote: »

So essentially back to normal. I dont see much change there. The screens are better for security in shops anyway.

Businesses will close we all know that, it's going to be a rough recession so it's going to happen.

You actually think people wont go back into shops ? People are and will revert back to old habits, shopping, socialising etc. Humans are creature of habits, work from home will have a take up but not to the levels people think.

Wishful thinking that there's going to be major changes.

I'm not wishing for major changes. I'm just saying there will be some changes. Things won't go back exactly as they were. I don't think people won't go into the shops, I'm saying 'less' people will go into the shops. Less people will socialise etc.

We are also heading into a poxy worldwide recession so get ready for the word austerity again.

stephenjmcd · 26-05-2020 05:53PM

BattleCorp wrote: »

Wasn't there a second wave of the Spanish Flu in 1918 that was much stronger than the first?

Are people still comparing this to the spanish flu ?? Its nothing like it, healthcare is also completely different.

It's been discussed here over and over you cant compare the two at all.

BattleCorp · 26-05-2020 05:55PM

stephenjmcd wrote: »

Are people still comparing this to the spanish flu ?? Its nothing like it, healthcare is also completely different.

It's been discussed here over and over you cant compare the two at all.

I'm not saying the death rate will be the same. I was responding to the point that was made saying that viruses weaken. I'm using that as an example of where a virus didn't weaken, but came back stronger.

stephenjmcd · 26-05-2020 05:55PM

BattleCorp wrote: »

I'm not wishing for major changes. I'm just saying there will be some changes. Things won't go back exactly as they were.

We are also heading into a poxy worldwide recession so get ready for the word austerity again.

I personally don't see much change, always had the WFH option never took it up much. Some will others won't as it's not practical for alot of people. Those aren't major social changes really. People will go back to as they were before, going out meeting people, attending events, travelling etc.

Everyone knows theres a recession dont think that needs to be highlighted, we've been made well aware of it.

stephenjmcd · 26-05-2020 05:57PM

BattleCorp wrote: »

I'm not saying the death rate will be the same. I was responding to the point that was made saying that viruses weaken. I'm using that as an example of where a virus didn't weaken, but came back stronger.

It's an example but so far not comparable. Multiple countries have now relaxed restrictions for a period of time, some much longer than a month and no resurgence. Still small level case numbers, these are perfectly manageable and wouldn't be a reason to prolong restrictions.

It could well weaken and tail off, we dont know if it will we dont know if it wont.

Onesea · 26-05-2020 05:57PM

Arghus wrote: »

There's an organisation called EUROMOMO which, according to their site -

They measure excess deaths from things like seasonal flu across different jurisdictions in Europe. It's pretty rock solid and reliable data.

Most of their findings are available in very clear graphs and charts.

https://euromomo.eu/graphs-and-maps/

There's a dramatic and clearly visible increase in excess deaths across Europe, in all age groups, apart from the under 15.

Once you look at the chart measuring excess death across all ages, which compares data from 2018, 2019 and available data from 2020, it's pretty dramatic. 2020 is almost literally off the charts.

And bear in mind that measuring excess deaths attributable to influenza is their main function - so influenza deaths are already included to begin with. The additional impact of Covid is undeniable. This thing is far, far more lethal than the regular flu.

96.5% of those effected in Italy were 60+
So more lethal to the old and ill.

Arghus · 26-05-2020 06:02PM

Onesea wrote: »

96.5% of those effected in Italy were 60+
So more lethal to the old and ill.

Yes, nobody has denied this. It's an established fact that is more lethal to the old and the ill.

But it's also more lethal - considerably more lethal - to people under the age of 60 when compared to regular influenza.

And how old are you btw? 60 isn't regarded as "old".

Micky 32 · 26-05-2020 06:04PM

BattleCorp wrote: »

Wasn't there a second wave of the Spanish Flu in 1918 that was much stronger than the first?

There was but it didn’t lead to “permanent” changes.

fritzelly · 26-05-2020 06:05PM

Did Dr Tony say what the ICU numbers were - listened but dont remember hearing him say it

Eod100 · 26-05-2020 06:06PM

We won't know what to do with ourselves..

https://twitter.com/newschambers/status/1265339048991887360

Micky 32 · 26-05-2020 06:06PM

stephenjmcd wrote: »

So essentially back to normal. I dont see much change there. The screens are better for security in shops anyway.

Businesses will close we all know that, it's going to be a rough recession so it's going to happen.

You actually think people wont go back into shops ? People are and will revert back to old habits, shopping, socialising etc. Humans are creature of habits, work from home will have a take up but not to the levels people think.

Wishful thinking that there's going to be major changes.

Yep life WILL find a way. It will work out in the end.

Charles Babbage · 26-05-2020 06:07PM

Arghus wrote: »

There's an organisation called EUROMOMO which, according to their site -

They measure excess deaths from things like seasonal flu across different jurisdictions in Europe. It's pretty rock solid and reliable data.

Most of their findings are available in very clear graphs and charts.

https://euromomo.eu/graphs-and-maps/

There's a dramatic and clearly visible increase in the early months of 2020 of excess deaths across Europe, in all age groups, apart from the under 15.

Once you look at the chart measuring excess death across all ages, which compares data from 2018, 2019 and available data from 2020, it's pretty dramatic. 2020 is almost literally off the charts.

And bear in mind that measuring excess deaths attributable to influenza is their main function - so influenza deaths are already included to begin with. The additional impact of Covid is undeniable. This thing is far, far more lethal than the regular flu.

Anyone still comparing Covid19 to flu is not living in reality and the Euromomo data shows that.

Onesea · 26-05-2020 06:07PM

Arghus wrote: »

Yes, nobody has denied this. It's an established fact that is more lethal to the old and the ill.

But it's also more lethal - considerably more lethal - to people under the age of 60 compared to regular influenza.

And how old are you btw? 60 isn't regarded as "old".

I'm not denying how dangerous it is, I just couldn't believe the amount of people below 60 it didn't kill in Italy.
The spike on the graphs is unmissable for sure, but it is just that a spike and a fast drop off.

I'm late 30s in very good physical shape, lots of a vit minerals and tons of protein consumed regularly. So have been lucky to not even get a cold the past year.

Thanks for the information.

Onesea · 26-05-2020 06:08PM

Charles Babbage wrote: »

Anyone still comparing Covid19 to flu is not living in reality and the Euromomo data shows that.

Same family of virus, corona. People may not be meaning they are so similar in effect.

Tony EH · 26-05-2020 06:08PM

kenmc wrote: »

Hmm, I'd be taking that with a large pinch of salt. The WHO have been behind the curve on this from the start.
I'd like to be wrong though

When you learn about a new thing you are always "behind the curve".

Onesea · 26-05-2020 06:11PM

Micky 32 wrote: »

Yep life WILL find a way. It will work out in the end.

The way I see it, the world just before this kicked off is a target humans won't stop trying to get to.
Travel, nights out, shopping all of this will return to normal. The only thing that would stop it is a stronger second wave. Don't know what happens then

igCorcaigh · 26-05-2020 06:12PM

Onesea wrote: »

Same family of virus, corona. People may not be meaning they are so similar in effect.

No. Coronaviruses are not influenza viruses.

26-05-2020 06:14PM

fritzelly wrote: »

Were they not saying last week prepare for a second wave?

Isn’t it better to prepare for a second wave in case it does come rather than not prepare because it might not come

KrustyUCC · 26-05-2020 06:15PM

Eod100 wrote: »

We won't know what to do with ourselves..

https://twitter.com/newschambers/status/1265339048991887360

I'd be quite happy if we never again saw Tony & Co

Long way from that yet though

stephenjmcd · 26-05-2020 06:16PM

Micky 32 wrote: »

Yep life WILL find a way. It will work out in the end.

I actually dont see how there will be permanent lasting changes in human habits bar the increase in personal hygiene standards. WFH might become more popular, splitting time between a few days in the office and few days home for those that can.

Apart from that, socialising, mass gatherings will all return. Who knows when they'll all return but I think it'll be very similar to what we had pre march with the exception of a heightened awareness around personal health, cough, sniffles whatever it might be you wont be just getting on with it and going to work or going out at the weekend, you'll have to limit movement and contact until the symptoms pass.

26-05-2020 06:16PM

Onesea wrote: »

Can anyone find the stats for seasonal flu cases and deaths for this past winter-for Italy alone?

Can anyone find the season flu stats for Italy where they locked down the country after the outbreak? Because unless you can it is not a valid comparison

Covid19 Part XVII-24,841 in ROI (1,639 deaths) 4,679 in NI (518 deaths)(28/05)Read OP

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