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Relaxation of Restrictions, Part III - **Read OP for Mod Warnings**

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  • #7352
    ceadaoin.
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 8,617 ✭✭✭ceadaoin.


    [Deleted User] wrote: »
    You are assuming Covid is rampant in the community - that most people in the supermarkets have it? They dont and its not. Its almost eradicated in the community and there is almost no spread if someone has it. So I don't know what all the fear is about. People are consumed by fear! They're driving their cars wearing masks - this virus is not airborne! You need to be in someone's close proximity for 15 minutes to get it, not brushing past them.

    This following is an advisory from the HSE.ie (How Covid spreads)
    https://www.gov.ie/en/publication/472f64-covid-19-coronavirus-guidance-and-advice/

    Covid spreads by spending more than 15 minutes face-to-face contact within 2 metres of an infected person

    Close contact does not include someone you passed on the street or in a shop. The risk of contact in that instance is very low.

    Exactly. They have found that most people do not transmit the virus, even to those they live with. Its estimated that just 10% of cases are responsible for 80% of the spread. So even if the person who brushed off you in the supermarket was infected, the risk of transmission is still close to zero. Unless they also coughed in your face or something.
    Most of the discussion around the spread of SARS-CoV-2 has concentrated on the average number of new infections caused by each patient. Without social distancing, this reproduction number (R) is about three. But in real life, some people infect many others and others don’t spread the disease at all. In fact, the latter is the norm, Lloyd-Smith says: “The consistent pattern is that the most common number is zero. Most people do not transmit.”




    That’s why in addition to R, scientists use a value called the dispersion factor (k), which describes how much a disease clusters. The lower k is, the more transmission comes from a small number of people. In a seminal 2005 Nature paper, Lloyd-Smith and co-authors estimated that SARS—in which superspreading played a major role—had a k of 0.16. The estimated k for MERS, which emerged in 2012, is about 0.25. In the flu pandemic of 1918, in contrast, the value was about one, indicating that clusters played less of a role.

    Estimates of k for SARS-CoV-2 vary. In January, Julien Riou and Christian Althaus at the University of Bern simulated the epidemic in China for different combinations of R and k and compared the outcomes with what had actually taken place. They concluded that k for COVID-19 is somewhat higher than for SARS and MERS. That seems about right, says Gabriel Leung, a modeler at the University of Hong Kong. “I don’t think this is quite like SARS or MERS, where we observed very large superspreading clusters,” Leung says. “But we are certainly seeing a lot of concentrated clusters where a small proportion of people are responsible for a large proportion of infections.” But in a recent preprint, Adam Kucharski of LSHTM estimated that k for COVID-19 is as low as 0.1. “Probably about 10% of cases lead to 80% of the spread,” Kucharski says.

    That could explain some puzzling aspects of this pandemic, including why the virus did not take off around the world sooner after it emerged in China, and why some very early cases elsewhere—such as one in France in late December 2019, reported on 3 May—apparently failed to ignite a wider outbreak. If k is really 0.1, then most chains of infection die out by themselves and SARS-CoV-2 needs to be introduced undetected into a new country at least four times to have an even chance of establishing itself, Kucharski says. If the Chinese epidemic was a big fire that sent sparks flying around the world, most of the sparks simply fizzled out.

    Some people are living in extreme fear purely because of the fear mongering going on. It is possible to go back to some semblence of normal life and still avoid mass infections .


  • #7353
    Gavlor
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,201 ✭✭✭Gavlor


    CruelSummer wrote: »
    Someone I spoke to today is very worried waiting on a test...they have private health insurance and nothing is currently happening in private hospitals.

    On Ireland’s cancer website, it says someone is diagnosed with cancer every 3 minutes....imagine all of those that have been missed for the past 8+ weeks.
    Cancer’s death rate is 100% if not treated unfortunately, compared to Covid’s <1%.

    Agree with most of your post but just to point out that the 3 minute bit is Obviously global and not specific to Ireland.


  • #7354
    snowcat
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,218 ✭✭✭snowcat


    Gavlor wrote: »
    Agree with most of your post but just to point out that the 3 minute bit is Obviously global and not specific to Ireland.

    Why is that obviously global? Those figures sound about right. About 50k cancers id guess a year in Ireland, A terrible disease and way worse than covid with a higher mortatity rate. Will we shut the economy for it and give patients unlimited medical bills covered by the state. Id be hopeful but id like to see Simons take on it


  • #7355
    RobitTV
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,517 ✭✭✭RobitTV


    We will get there, we will get there, we will get there, we will get there, we will get there, we will get there.

    What does 'getting there' actually look like? - 0, 10 ,20 ,30 ,40 cases per day consistently over a course of the few weeks?

    What do you they actually want to be achieved at this stage? the curve has been flattened. Why are they moving away from the original idea of the lockdown?

    https://twitter.com/SimonHarrisTD/status/1264589830350127104


  • #7356
    snowcat
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,218 ✭✭✭snowcat


    MadYaker wrote: »
    None of those countries have ended their lockdowns though?

    Some never had a lockdown. Switwerland Sweden and Portugal only had a partial one


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  • #7357
    hopalongcass
    Closed Accounts Posts: 109 ✭✭hopalongcass


    Lyle wrote: »
    I'm taking the info for my "wild conjecture" from The Lancet in March and the Annals of Internal Medicine from early May.

    "There were 181 confirmed cases with identifiable exposure and symptom onset windows to estimate the incubation period of COVID-19. The median incubation period was estimated to be 5.1 days (95% CI, 4.5 to 5.8 days), and 97.5% of those who develop symptoms will do so within 11.5 days (CI, 8.2 to 15.6 days) of infection. These estimates imply that, under conservative assumptions, 101 out of every 10 000 cases (99th percentile, 482) will develop symptoms after 14 days of active monitoring or quarantine."

    This data is echoed by the WHO, ECDC, CDC, HPSC, etc etc. I'm inclined to go with the elite level scientists behind these studies, and these bodies and agencies, and will continue to base my opinions on academic, peer-reviewed research ahead of some random langer who still thinks this is a bad flu.

    Unless you can cite me a paper from the last fortnight that debunks these prior papers? In which case I'll rescind my previous post and will adapt my thoughts based on that new info. Cheers.

    I have no doubt you got that information somewhere,i think the WHO is long past being somewhere reputable to cite,as this farce rolls on and none of the 3rd world nations have been overrun.

    Sad state of modern society nobody can think for themselves,you need a peer reviewed study to say its safe before you are gonna cross the road outside your house.

    Cop on to yourself,you and ur ilk are dwindling by the day as the economy is falling off a cliff.I watched my elderly relations lives go to hell in the last few months,previously healthy active elderly people with nowhere to go or nothing to do,and its really starting to affect their health now at this point and it might be passing the point of no return,you people make me sick.


  • #7358
    Stark
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 21,173 ✭✭✭✭Stark


    biggebruv wrote: »
    Is it true the virus is disappearing just read something I sky news about it’s fading away faster than they’d like because they want to make a vaccine

    Yes they don't have enough people getting infected in the community to test if it works or not and it's unethical to deliberately infect someone in order to test it.


  • #7359
    the kelt
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,892 ✭✭✭the kelt


    MadYaker wrote: »
    None of those countries have ended their lockdowns though?

    Ending lockdown isn’t an option.

    But not taking multiple weeks/months longer than our European counterparts in easing those restrictions many of whom were far worse affected than us certainly is.

    Especially when you see the reported numbers, even when the numbers were 100 plus there was only a small percentage recently that were community transmission, how many if the 57 today are community.

    Or at least tell us what the reasoning is behind it because “let’s just see what happens with them” isn’t a reason, it’s an excuse and a particularly pathetic one. We were told we needed to flatten the curve yet it looks now like we are looking at total eradication before we move on yet this hasn’t been communicated as our plan, is it?

    Leaders lead, not follow.


  • #7360
    ceadaoin.
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 8,617 ✭✭✭ceadaoin.


    Lyle wrote: »
    I'm taking the info for my "wild conjecture" from The Lancet in March and the Annals of Internal Medicine from early May.

    "There were 181 confirmed cases with identifiable exposure and symptom onset windows to estimate the incubation period of COVID-19. The median incubation period was estimated to be 5.1 days (95% CI, 4.5 to 5.8 days), and 97.5% of those who develop symptoms will do so within 11.5 days (CI, 8.2 to 15.6 days) of infection. These estimates imply that, under conservative assumptions, 101 out of every 10 000 cases (99th percentile, 482) will develop symptoms after 14 days of active monitoring or quarantine."

    This data is echoed by the WHO, ECDC, CDC, HPSC, etc etc. I'm inclined to go with the elite level scientists behind these studies, and these bodies and agencies, and will continue to base my opinions on academic, peer-reviewed research ahead of some random langer who still thinks this is a bad flu.

    Unless you can cite me a paper from the last fortnight that debunks these prior papers? In which case I'll rescind my previous post and will adapt my thoughts based on that new info. Cheers.

    Eh that says that of those who develop symptoms, 97% do so within 11 days. Its does not match up to what you claimed it said which is "97% of people are symptomatic by day 11".

    There is still a good proportion of people, over 50% of total infections by some estimates, who never show symptoms


  • #7361
    double jobbing
    Closed Accounts Posts: 322 ✭✭double jobbing


    snowcat wrote: »
    Ok. Google might help. But look at Austria Switz Germany Netherlands Spain France Sweden Czech Uk Italy Norway Denmark I could go on

    The misery merchants were positively salivating when post lockdown easing the German cases went up a bit and there was a brief spike in South Korea.

    To my knowledge no country has postponed or pushed back a lockdown phase (bar I believe Singapore in the very early stage, and a city state isn't really comparable to a country), which is a very optimistic thing.


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  • #7362
    double jobbing
    Closed Accounts Posts: 322 ✭✭double jobbing


    RobitTV wrote: »
    We will get there, we will get there, we will get there, we will get there, we will get there, we will get there.

    What does 'getting there' actually look like? - 0, 10 ,20 ,30 ,40 cases per day consistently over a course of the few weeks?

    What do you they actually want to be achieved at this stage? the curve has been flattened. Why are they moving away from the original idea of the lockdown?

    https://twitter.com/SimonHarrisTD/status/1264589830350127104

    Indeed. Harris needs to tell us where the daily 50- 80 cases are occuring.

    If 90 percent of them are happening in institutions, we are "there" already" to be honest.

    I'll still keep my distance from lads in work but it would be nice to know if there really is a 1 in 15,000 chance I'm standing within a few ft of a carrier or whether there is more of it still out there.


  • #7363
    Idbatterim
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 18,557 ✭✭✭✭Idbatterim


    Have the dream team considered banning sex? Less people born = less people to die. Life is too high risk. I wonder do these w@nkers wrap themselves in cotton wool when they get home?

    I wonder has varadkar asked kylie for advice on the situation


  • #7364
    Gavlor
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,201 ✭✭✭Gavlor


    snowcat wrote: »
    Why is that obviously global? Those figures sound about right. About 50k cancers id guess a year in Ireland, A terrible disease and way worse than covid with a higher mortatity rate. Will we shut the economy for it and give patients unlimited medical bills covered by the state. Id be hopeful but id like to see Simons take on it

    One every 3 minutes, 10 every 30 minutes, 20 every hour. That’s 480 a day that’s over 3 times your guesstimate. Obviously not specific to Ireland and on reflection obviously not global either.


  • #7365
    double jobbing
    Closed Accounts Posts: 322 ✭✭double jobbing


    Another plus to re opening the economy is the tests are now 2 days to return a result starting from the point a patient contacts their doctor. I think it was over 5 only a week or two ago.

    Mass testing, quick turnaround, get the show on the road. Might be a good idea to test every construction worker if we have the capacity for 100k a week and two day turnarounds, could effectively wipe it out in the sector, assuming it is there at all. Mass test every returning sector and rule them out.


  • #7366
    Idbatterim
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 18,557 ✭✭✭✭Idbatterim


    I wish one radio station didnt mention this bull**** at all, I reckon listenership would soar...


  • #7367
    gipi
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,282 ✭✭✭gipi


    Idbatterim wrote: »
    I wish one radio station didnt mention this bull**** at all, I reckon listenership would soar...

    If you're in the Dublin area, try PirateFM, 88.1. They don't have DJs for the most part and don't do news bulletins. Just a wide range of music.


  • #7368
    Arghus
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 15,150 ✭✭✭✭Arghus


    TheCitizen wrote: »
    I see this thread has been taken over entirely by the shrill panic merchants. The restrictions hopefully will be forwarded given the figures. Hang tough troops

    I agree: The shrill panic merchants who say we're 100% going to have thousands of suicides and thousands more deaths from untreated cancers and a total economic collapse on top of that.


  • #7369
    Lyle
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 224 ✭✭Lyle


    hopalongcass wrote: »
    I have no doubt you got that information somewhere,i think the WHO is long past being somewhere reputable to cite,as this farce rolls on and none of the 3rd world nations have been overrun.

    Do you have similar issues with the HPSC? CDC? ECDC? A litany of medical journals? Have all of those lost reputability? Does the fact that the WHO endorses or acknowledges a study immediately ruin its reputability?

    I got the info quoted from the Annals of Internal Medicine - https://www.acpjournals.org/doi/10.7326/M20-0504

    hopalongcass wrote: »
    Sad state of modern society nobody can think for themselves,you need a peer reviewed study to say its safe before you are gonna cross the road outside your house.

    Cop on to yourself,you and ur ilk are dwindling by the day as the economy is falling off a cliff.I watched my elderly relations lives go to hell in the last few months,previously healthy active elderly people with nowhere to go or nothing to do,and its really starting to affect their health now at this point and it might be passing the point of no return,you people make me sick.

    Hahahahahahaaaa. You sound absolutely tapped in the head, you might wanna go take a Xanax or an overdose of barbiturates or something and calm yourself down if you get in such a tizzy from a personally fabricated angular reading of another person's opinion.

    Where did I even say remotely anything close to what you claim? I go out every day, as much as I can. Went for a long stroll earlier, had a swim this morning. I never said anything about not going out. You'd wanna project your hyper-agitated lunacy in a different direction, I haven't talked about my opinion of the lockdown or the behaviour of people therein, I offered an opinion based on the scientific understanding of the incubation period of the virus as it potentially relates to the lifting of restrictions and the relationship to the level of daily cases, that was it.

    Of course I can think for myself, but I'm not an epidemiologist or a virologist, nor do I have access to large pools of data from which to conduct studies on the incubation period of a novel virus that has appeared in the human population for the first time ever in the last few months. Therefore the best possible understanding on such a topic can be gained from reading the analysis of experts on those matters.

    Who are "my ilk"?

    I'm sorry about your elderly relations lives going to hell. That is 100% genuine. This is hardest on them. One of mine died in a nursing home, the other two are also in homes and high risk. I understand the pain.

    I'm sorry you're so fragile that you invented a narrative that made yourself sick. You just made me sad, but you also made me laugh so I guess it balances out.


  • #7370
    niallo27
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 16,136 ✭✭✭✭niallo27


    RobitTV wrote: »
    We will get there, we will get there, we will get there, we will get there, we will get there, we will get there.

    What does 'getting there' actually look like? - 0, 10 ,20 ,30 ,40 cases per day consistently over a course of the few weeks?

    What do you they actually want to be achieved at this stage? the curve has been flattened. Why are they moving away from the original idea of the lockdown?

    https://twitter.com/SimonHarrisTD/status/1264589830350127104

    People are really starting to turn on him, now in fairness its twitter but to see such a huge majority turning on him is encouraging.


  • #7371
    RobitTV
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,517 ✭✭✭RobitTV


    This video shows how hysterical some people have become. Queen curtain twitcher.

    https://twitter.com/JoshManMode/status/1263637559873277955


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  • #7372
    iamwhoiam
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 16,248 ✭✭✭✭iamwhoiam


    niallo27 wrote: »
    People are really starting to turn on him, now in fairness its twitter but to see such a huge majority turning on him is encouraging.

    He lost me with his “ Dont loose the run of yourselves “
    Jesus ,,9 weeks in lockdown , doing exactly what was asked of us . Not seeing grandchildren for weeks on end , standing in queues for milk , having my hair cut by my husband , having a walk on the same road for 6 weeks , not seeing family or friends .Crying on whatsapp with my granddaughter because she was lonely
    And he comes out with a patronising “ dont loose the run of yourselves “
    Christ on a bike


  • #7373
    double jobbing
    Closed Accounts Posts: 322 ✭✭double jobbing


    iamwhoiam wrote: »
    He lost me with his “ Dont loose the run of yourselves “
    Jesus ,,9 weeks in lockdown , doing exactly what was asked of us . Not seeing grandchildren for weeks on end , standing in queues for milk , having my hair cut by my husband , having a walk on the same road for 6 weeks , not seeing family or friends .
    And he comes out with a patronising “ dont loose the run of yourselves “
    Christ on a bike

    Harris doesn't strike me as a pubgoer. He has never held a real job. I'd imagine his friends are his fellow TD's so he hasn't been cut off from them either.

    He isn't doing lockdown like the rest of us are.

    Let's not forget only a month ago this idiot made an off the cuff remark that he couldn't see pubs re opening before a vaccine is found. The shock that caused both to the industry and to us pubgoers, from the minister of ****ing health, when you weigh it up with several countries have started controlled re opening of slimmed down bars, it is staggering alarmism and negligence he displayed.


  • #7374
    Jackman25
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 456 ✭✭Jackman25


    https://twitter.com/bernardflynn15/status/1264641233290477574?s=20

    Good to see Harris getting a lashing out of it below his tweet.

    Some absolute f**kwits replying to this tweet whining about distancing.


  • #7375
    bb1234567
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,513 ✭✭✭bb1234567


    Ginger n Lemon wrote: »
    I am happy you said that last sentence. Usual posters here would just say "mass graves in Brazil" as if tens of millions are dying.

    Unfortunately BBC article chooses to show 2 men in white astronaut suits carrying a coffin. Desperate scare mongering when death rates in Brazil are 0.008% of population and as is road crashes account for more deaths there than covid. All of this is very unfortunate, but with 200 million population its naive to expect no to little deaths.

    Yeh, Brazil has insanely high number of road traffic deaths, almost 50,000 last year, out of 1.26 million deaths in Brazil annually. It's not really an impressive or great achievement that the covid deaths are below it, in fact it's a bizarre comparison to make considering how astonishingly high it is. 22,600 covid deaths in addition to thousands of unreported is extremely high number of deaths in Brazil in 6 weeks even when taking into consideration the country size


  • #7376
    road_high
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 19,858 ✭✭✭✭road_high


    iamwhoiam wrote: »
    He lost me with his “ Dont loose the run of yourselves “
    Jesus ,,9 weeks in lockdown , doing exactly what was asked of us . Not seeing grandchildren for weeks on end , standing in queues for milk , having my hair cut by my husband , having a walk on the same road for 6 weeks , not seeing family or friends .Crying on whatsapp with my granddaughter because she was lonely
    And he comes out with a patronising “ dont loose the run of yourselves “
    Christ on a bike

    No offence to anyone but Harris is definitely on the spectrum somewhere.
    He’s odd as fcuk, the ****e he comes out isn’t normal, it’s kind of stuff I’d expect from someone that lived alone with a nanny in some country estate in Victorian times. Oddly his background isn’t remotely like this


  • #7377
    VillageIdiot71
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 578 ✭✭✭VillageIdiot71


    hopalongcass wrote: »
    They still have substantially less deaths than the UK with about 3 times the population.

    The lockdown enthusiasts were posting videos from Ecuador a couple weeks ago sadly for them it failed to materialise,there is no pandemic we have not seen any country hit numbers that are much worse than a seasonal flu.Italy has tapered off as has Spain.How can there be a pandemic without numbers higher than an average flu.

    People have really lost the plot with this one,surely with a pandemic one country out of the whole world using all different kinds of measures would have to have become overrun by now 6 months into it,but it hasn't happened.
    And, just giving than sense of proportion, if the estimates that Ireland could effect "up to" 80,000 deaths was valid, then Brazil should be looking at "up to" 4 million deaths.

    Its like a grand delusion on a global scale. When the dust settles their needs to be a deep inquiry into how the world went so bonkers, and why we're so slow to wake up.


  • #7378
    Quantum Erasure
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 9,606 ✭✭✭Quantum Erasure


    RobitTV wrote: »
    This video shows how hysterical some people have become. Queen curtain twitcher.

    https://twitter.com/JoshManMode/status/1263637559873277955

    that video is from last year, what's your point?


    edit: the stairs aren't even there any more....

    https://twitter.com/heady_wook/status/1263904877115133952


  • #7379
    stephenjmcd
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 15,443 ✭✭✭✭stephenjmcd


    Supposedly from today,if it is or not I dont know. And until it can be confirmed it's from this weekend I'll take it with a pinch of salt but it really wouldn't look good if it is.
    https://twitter.com/jordan3collins/status/1264670466863661064?s=19


  • #7380
    alta stare
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,326 ✭✭✭alta stare


    py2006 wrote: »
    You can go 5km, and you can very easily do 40km while staying within that radius of your home.

    How do you know you haven't passed it on to somebody? How do you know you won't get it from somebody?

    Na mate i will cycle a lovely scenic route where i will enjoy the beautiful countryside that we have. I won't get depressed off my face whilst waiting for this nonsense fade out. I will be out again Monday for another cycle and i am certainly looking forward to it.


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  • #7381
    bb1234567
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,513 ✭✭✭bb1234567


    stephenjmcd wrote: »
    Supposedly from today
    https://twitter.com/jordan3collins/status/1264670466863661064?s=19

    Surely couldn't be true, don't think he'd take that risk in such a public place knowing how bad it would look


This discussion has been closed.
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