FG to just do nothing for the next 5 years.

efanton wrote: »

[Leo could not be more clear on the radio this morning, in his opinion he said FG would lose heavily in any subsequent general election if they entered government. Obviously he recognises that FG are very much out of favour in the eyes of the electorate. Will they do better if a general election is called if these coalition talks collapse? They might gain a handful of seats at most but will be in no position to coalesce with any party to form a government once its over.

First of all, I would like to link to this podcast to where he said these things because as you know, what he actually says may be different to what you think he says.

But again, its a contradiction. In fairness you have form there.
You admit that they may gain seats, yet will not be in a position to be part of any government, even though now, they are doing exactly this with even less seats... makes sense right?

If FG gain seats and remain anywhere near 30% of the vote coming polling day, they will gain more than a few seats and will thus be up there in terms of forming a new government. It of course depends if the numbers are there for SF and I think not as they will eat up the left vote, but again will fall short of the 81 mark.






https://www.breakingnews.ie/ireland/varadkar-worried-fine-gael-might-only-win-20-something-seats-in-next-election-1000869.html

Now how FG think they are going to dominate a program for government when the other two parties clearly have the majority of the seats in the Dail is another question that needs to be answered.

This is part of the horse-trading. Most of the talk up to know has been about what the Greens want and how they are quite adamant in their Co2 reductions being a core part of the next government. Leo is clearly stating here, that they can give but will not give at any cost.

What the greens are demanding is going to cost billions, and we all know FF just love to spend money in a Late Late show kind of way where there's a little something for everyone in the audience.
Then add to that the promise of not a SF housing program but something far more ambitious, that will cost far more than the 6 billion SF wanted to spend, being that FF/FG are claiming to do all that SF have proposed in their manifesto and more

To be clear SF wanted to spend 21 Billion on housing, not 6.

Yes, all these things will cost money, but I am surprised now, you of all people are becoming a fiscal conservative!

How are FG / FG going to reduce the cost of land? Compulsory purchase orders? Additional taxation on land sales?

There was talk of a referendum on land, not sure where that is at the moment.

Cost rental accommodations? how are they going to persuade private business to build apartments or homes and then rent them out on a cost only basis.

Tax breaks or subsides I imagine, but again, lets wait for the details on this.

Cheaper homes for those who wish to purchase? how is that going to work without scrapping stamp duty, subsiding purchase costs, or taxing the bejesus out of those selling properties above a certain price.

It can be done if you reduce the cost of land.

There's no way any program for government that involves FF and the Green's is going to have "a programme for government that has our stamp on it." as Leo said. What they have promised a spend fest liek nothing else before, and to do it without raising taxation to boot.

Great, then FG will walk and the country goes to the polls.

You would either have to believe that any program for government that comes out of coalition talks is going to result in billions of borrowing and not "fiscal responsible" or "keeping the public finances in order" as Leo likes to put it, or that FG are yet again going to renege on promises made to the Irish people.

I love this!
If the new program for government results in tens of billions of more spending.... blame FG for not being fiscally conservative
If the new program for government doesn't fix the problems in society by spending more.... blame FG

:D:D

FG are dead, they want this coalition so bad that they are prepared to promise anything, because the alternative is likely to be that they never get to form a government again. This coalition, if it ever happens, will be the FG swan song,

Dead? Swan Song, never in government again? Hmmm. Do you want to take a bet on this?

Define 'dead'? As per the last poll, they are the most popular party in the country.
9 years in power and here they are, still with a shot at being in power for another 5.
Or if SF/FF do a deal, they can go into opposition and take all the potshots in the world against that type of government.

Look, saying such definite things like, 'FG are dead/never going to be in government again' is just ridiculous nonsense.
Look at the rise back of FF.
Look at SF
Look at the Greens

You have not even made the case to where all these votes will go to?
Who will replace FG as the only center-right party in the country? Unlike FF the demographs are kind to them.

You dont have to believe me, Leo himself has more or less stated that.

Eh, no he didnt.

markodaly wrote: »

First of all, I would like to link to this podcast to where he said these things because as you know, what he actually says may be different to what you think he says.

I gave you the link already. did i even mention a podcast? If you read the articles what Leo said was quoted. Are you denying that?

But again, its a contradiction. In fairness you have form there.
You admit that they may gain seats, yet will not be in a position to be part of any government, even though now, they are doing exactly this with even less seats... makes sense right?

Lets imagine FG gain some seats in an election called because they could not form a coalition. Which party is going to be willing to become their coalition partners. Micheal Martin will be history, so I doubt very FF will be willing to consider a coalition under a new leadership. Lets be totally outlandish and lets imagine FG get 40 seats which parties or parties will make up the other 40 seats. THats not going to happen unless SF of FF are on board. So yes I am certain in a new general election FG will be in no position whatsoever to form a government or be a coalition partner.

To be clear SF wanted to spend 21 Billion on housing, not 6.

you have evidence to back that up I assume? Link please.
SF proposed to spend 6 billion IN ADDITION to existing housing budgets.
But you still have not answered how a FF/FG coalition will not only provide 100k social housing units in the term of one government but also fund all the other things I quoted from their framework document.

Yes, all these things will cost money, but I am surprised now, you of all people are becoming a fiscal conservative!

the 100k social housing units is doable if the capital expenditure cost is amortised over a 20 to 25 year period. To argue that the SF plan is lunacy and then ignore that FG have not only promised this but doubled down by including plans for cost/rental accommodation for students and funding for those that wish to buy their own homes and at the same time reduce the cost of land through subsidies, tax breaks or reduction in stamp duty as well really takes some doing. You really are taking the Michael.

By the way how much would all that cost? I cant wait to hear your answer to that, being that you scoffed at the SF proposed spending.

The SF plan for housing was admittedly ambitious but definitely doable. What we have now is Leo promising to be fiscally prudent and breaking the bank at the same time and doing it all with a promise to not raise income tax in any form unlike SF. It would be pure comedy if it wasn't so tragic.

FG are dead as far as being in government because there will be no support from like minded parties big enough to make up the magic 80 seats, and never likely to be again. Drafting in a handful of independents or the labour party is no longer going to be an option. When Michael Martin is replaced, and I think you would agree that his days as leader of FF are now numbered if the FF/FG coalition doesnt work out, do you think that his successor will be knocking at FG HQ's door begging to be part of a FG government.

One poll means absolutely nothing. We both know that much of that support was due to the covid epidemic. Will that support still be there when another GE is called? I very much doubt it but you know that already. Even if FG got 35% of the seats in the Dail it still wold not be enough for them to even seek to form a coalition.

So where are FG going to get the additional seats to form a government after a general election?

jimmycrackcorm wrote: »

It's way above the standard that SF has set with their moronic Violet-Anne, more so with an experienced TD in Cullinane or even the joke that is Lousie O'Reilly in health.

There are gob****es in every party and two of the three mentioned meet that criterìa and the third is Junior Minister potential at most. But start listing some of the "talent" in FF FG Soc Dem Greens (all in PBP) and you see we will be fairly scraping the bottom of the barrell

StackSteevens wrote: »

Translation: my party didn't win enough seats to take power and couldn't persuade the other left-leaning parties to elect Mary Lou Taoiseach, and I'm still very miffed about it.

What?

Did you want a discussion on your very simplistic 'dregs of society' point or just to pontificate without anybody being able to reply?

You are correct, while not as extreme as you suggest, politics does fail to attract enough of the right people across all party's.

There is a reason for that and one of them is that it has been devalued as a career.
Another reason is that politics always attracts the shyster and fraudster and it probably always will.

Another benefit of social media is that it is harder to mask that ^ as the parties in power were able to do over the years. Would a Haughey get away with it for as long as he did in the modern age? I doubt it. Every dog in the street knew apparently but that cozy relationship politics here had with the media kept it hidden. Same as the church stuff.

Power and the media.

Bishop of hope wrote: »

Agree 100 with this.
But man the lies on social media are unreal too, the slant and the pics and the language used are appalling.
Definitely politicians are walking a tightrope every time they open their mouths now.
The worst of it is I think it is discouraging genuine people from entering politics.
It seems no one with a view on social media can keep a civil tongue in their head and the more profane the insults the more likes it gets.

You reap what you sow.

In general the politicians over the last 2 or 3 decades have created this environment of apathy, contempt and sometimes outright hatred towards them.
When a Taoiseach can stand up in the Dail and outright lies and still expect to get away with it, politicians be found guilty of corruption but never charged or face a court of law or serve time, and as is all to common now instead of answering a direct question politician deflecting and getting away with out answering because a Ceann Comhairle abusing their position or the media owned by vested interests will not pursue that is it any wonder that people in general have a very low opinion of politicians.

The problem with some parties is the abuse of power, and the deliberate misleading and deflections comes straight from the top, or the top brass within a party will protect those guilty of corruption and abuse of power instead of not only removing them from office but immediately kicking them out of the party. Why did no one face criminal charges for the treatment of Maurice MvCabe? Why are politicians that have been proven to be guilty of corruption still legally entitled to stand for office (Michael Lowry, John Perry, and Ivor Callely spring immediately to mind but here are at least a dozen more).

Yes some people use extremely bad language in social media and there is absolutely no need for that, but its not hard to understand why some will drop to that level when politicians seem to be totally immune to any serious sanction for their misdoings, and worse their party or colleagues will cover for them. In any other profession (medical, law, financial, etc) they would not only be facing criminal charges but lose the right to work in their profession.

Bishop of hope wrote: »

Agree 100 with this.
But man the lies on social media are unreal too, the slant and the pics and the language used are appalling.
Definitely politicians are walking a tightrope every time they open their mouths now.
The worst of it is I think it is discouraging genuine people from entering politics.
It seems no one with a view on social media can keep a civil tongue in their head and the more profane the insults the more likes it gets.

You have to be your own editor on social media and that is a problem in itself.

There is a discussion on the SF thread at the minute on a photo of two SF TD's breaking the social distancing rules (seems to be a cut and dried case of it)

The interesting thing is a poster has just introduced the insinuation that they spent '20 minutes' on the bench thus making it different to FG gaff on social distancing.
When asked where '20 mins came from?' it was because he had 'never known the woman talk for less than 20 minutes'

This posters 'editing of' the content of the social media post seems to have added '20 minutes' of contact to the mix.

That is a dangerous 'self editing'.

StackSteevens wrote: »

Translation: my party didn't win enough seats to take power and couldn't persuade the other left-leaning parties to elect Mary Lou Taoiseach, and I'm still very miffed about it.

"Other"
Sinn Fein has fooled a good few into thinking they are left leaning
The lads in Armagh and Tyrone wouldnt be really into that distribution of wealth lark unless its going in their direction.

McMurphy wrote: »

Leo hasn't the balls to attack the Tories (who are responsible and could do something about it) so he does the disingenuous thing and imply the Shinners can change what is handed out.

So they're paper rulers and ministers?
Look if that's OK and they're prepared to stand by and not change that, what sort of coalition partners would they be?
The rule the roost system doesent seem to bother them at all does it.
And then here you go expecting Leo to do their job for them.

dundalkfc10 wrote: »

It is, you know it is, I know it is, Leo knows it is.

He had a go at Sinn Fein suggesting they were setting the amount. He knew they had no say in this amount.

What is so hard to understand here?

You seem very bitter still from the election results that Sinn Fein got more seats than FG and Mary Lou showed what a great leader she was while Leo the leader led FG in their worst election results in years.

Tiocfaidh ár lá

It’s rubbish posting like this which ensures the lads from the heather clad hills always screw themselves up.

And then they are surprised when nobody wants anything to do with them.

:rolleyes: