Property Market 2020

Mic 1972 · 20-05-2020 06:48PM

Empty_Space wrote: »

I can think of few more stupid things then buying this 2 bedapartment right now. Even if they offered it at 200k I'd be only looking to resell straight away.

None of what you have been saying is happening to the current market. Consequences of Covid and lockdown are already evident but no impact on the market

Padre_Pio · 20-05-2020 06:55PM

Mic 1972 wrote: »

None of what you have been saying is happening to the current market. Consequences of Covid and lockdown are already evident but no impact on the market

You can't say there's no impact. You have no facts or figures to back that up bar those which were gathered before the lockdown.
You can't say what impact the lockdown has had until we're out of it, the same way you can't say how far you've fell until you reach the bottom.

Melanchthon · 20-05-2020 06:57PM

Auctioneera wrote: »

Coherent points, well made. Can't really argue with any of this analysis.
However, if we get good treatments, a vaccine or herd immunity, some level of hospitality will reopen so some semblance of normality may be restored hopefully sooner than we expect.

I am hopeful too! Despite being on the side of the argument that definitely wants a drop in house prices I am in a role that's partially dependent on construction and I like going on holidays and the pub

I think the politics of this isn't being focussed on enough, housing is a hot issue and SF keep growing of the back of it.

Politically I think the best outcome would be a decrease to say 2017ish prices and rents, majority of home owners won't be effected, prices probably high enough to justify home building, rents enough to return profits but not to impact companies getting staff. If prices and rents don't decrease there is going to be serious political pressure to do something more.

I will hold my hands up and say I don't understand the housing market here, even before the crash I didn't get who was buying the small expensive new build townhouses, I see places on Daft that aren't bad value in working class but not rough areas whereas a new build that's smaller and in a location that's nicer on paper now but the development will still have 10-20% social housing so likely to develop some issues is 100k or so more expensive.

The_Conductor · 20-05-2020 06:59PM

Ozark707 wrote: »

Remember the ESRI didn't predict the housing collapse the last time either.

Peter Bacon was commissioned to compile reports on among other things, the sustainability of the housing sector. He published his first of three reports in April 1998- where he stated unequivocally that house prices, as they were at that time, were unsustainable.

He published a second and a third report (under commission to the government) which took nearly 8 years before they had the guts to publish them.

The government were addicted to the easy money they were able to extract from the housing sector- and it was expedient to ignore the increasingly worrisome reports they were getting from people like Peter Bacon.

The herd mentality being displayed by consumers- encouraged at every possible opportunity by politicians who sold the story that Ireland was a special case where the rules didn't apply.

We all know how that ended- however, what a lot of people seem to have forgotten- is the hard work done by Peter Bacon and others- which forewarned the government as far back as 1998, about the consequences of their actions- and were promptly put away on shelves to gather dust. Over time a second and even a third report were commissioned- where the entire history of the situation unfolded.

Whatever about the ESRI- it is a complete fallacy to suggest that the government did not have good advice- over a protracted period of time- which spelt out in stark detail the consequences of their actions.

Peter Bacon was derided by the Irish Times as far back as 2000 as 'Not being a team player'

Link here

Subsequent to the crash- it was Peter Bacon they turned to- to set up NAMA- and to the best of my knowledge he is still active in that role- probably a lot more cynical a person than he used to be.

Mic 1972 · 20-05-2020 07:01PM

Padre_Pio wrote: »

You can't say there's no impact. You have no facts or figures to back that up bar those which were gathered before the lockdown.
You can't say what impact the lockdown has had until we're out of it, the same way you can't say how far you've fell until you reach the bottom.

Very inaccurate statements
Look at the Daft and MyHome, the trend isn't changing. As for the impact of lockdown on the economy you definitely don't need to hit rock bottom to know what's going on. Lots of people are already dealing with loss of job

Padre_Pio · 20-05-2020 07:06PM

Mic 1972 wrote: »

Very inaccurate statements
Look at the Daft and MyHome, the trend isn't changing. As for the impact of lockdown on the economy you definitely don't need to hit rock bottom to know what's going on. Lots of people are already dealing with loss of job

It takes months to go from sale agreed to get the keys.
Plenty of sales completing now were initiated pre-COVID.

I went sale agreed on a house in mid-Feb. Contracts came through mid-April. If I was proceeding I still wouldn't have completed the purchase.

Hubertj · 20-05-2020 07:27PM

neon123 wrote: »

Hi Folks,

I was wondering if anyone could give some advise. The GF and myself are looking to try and take advantage of any possible dip in house prices, and might look to try and buy maybe this year or next year. We are looking for ideally a 2 bedroom apartment in the areas of Monkstown/Blackrock/Dun Laoghaire or possibly Sandyford. The types of apartments we like seem to cost between €270k to €295k in those areas, however our budget with a deposit is just about €250k. For people familiar with these areas, do you think the prices of these types of properties in those areas might drop by much, or alternatively could someone suggest what they think would be the max discount a seller would come down by, i.e in the current climate would suggesting a 10% reduction off the list price be possible or maybe even more?

Thanks a million !

Don’t buy. Not because of what is or isn’t happening to the market. If you are coming into this thread looking for advice it means you are not ready to make such a decision.

Padre_Pio · 20-05-2020 07:36PM

Hubertj wrote: »

Don’t buy. Not because of what is or isn’t happening to the market. If you are coming into this thread looking for advice it means you are not ready to make such a decision.

I would honestly agree with this. You'll get 20 conflicting opinions here. No one can tell the future or the best course of action.

OwlsZat · 20-05-2020 07:39PM

Auctioneera wrote: »

They always have a strong rental market to fall back on if they can't get a reasonable offer.

Do you realise the rental market is on fire? The available properties in Dublin doubled last month. A huge amount of suspended jobs will be lost. It's a renters marker and the prices are already crashing especially at the top end of of the market. The WFH means things may never he the same again. It feels like the rental market is the leading indicator here.

Hubertj · 20-05-2020 07:47PM

Padre_Pio wrote: »

I would honestly agree with this. You'll get 20 conflicting opinions here. No one can tell the future or the best course of action.

And the liars. Plenty of them too. I’m interested in people’s opinions but some try to mix fiction with reality to suit whatever agenda they have in their little minds. Talk of market having crashed already and other tall stories. I just don’t understand what satisfaction people get out of it...

Mic 1972 · 20-05-2020 08:01PM

Padre_Pio wrote: »

It takes months to go from sale agreed to get the keys.
Plenty of sales completing now were initiated pre-COVID.

I went sale agreed on a house in mid-Feb. Contracts came through mid-April. If I was proceeding I still wouldn't have completed the purchase.

MyHome and Daft are asking prices, nothing to do with what was already agreed before Covid. Any sale prices or sales agreed prices are not showing in there
Asking prices have not declined at all, so obviously there is still a strong market

dor843088 · 20-05-2020 08:02PM

Auctioneera wrote: »

Think about it though. What vendor will sell their house at a fire sale price at present? To get a crash in prices, you need distressed vendors and we just don't have large scale distress in the market. We did an article on this here: https://www.auctioneera.ie/house-prices-ireland-post-covid-19
We're seeing this on the ground. Plenty opportunists submitting lowball bids - vendors aren't entertaining them as they're not distressed.
They always have a strong rental market to fall back on if they can't get a reasonable offer.

Mate the party is over Stop codding yourself. Your article is the biggest load of delusion iv ever seen.

Padre_Pio · 20-05-2020 08:04PM

Mic 1972 wrote: »

MyHome and Daft are asking prices, nothing to do with what was already agreed before Covid. Any sale prices or sales agreed prices are not showing in there
Asking prices have not declined at all, so obviously there is still a strong market

Asking prices are b*llocks plain and simple. As I said, I was sale agreed on a property for 30k under asking.
The asking price was mental and either the seller or EA was deluded when they first advertised it .

On the flip side, a bidding war can increase the sale price well beyond asking.
Sale prices are the real metric and lag well behind. It will be June before we get a proper look at closed sales in March and April.

20-05-2020 08:43PM

Mic 1972 wrote: »

Asking prices have not declined at all, so obviously there is still a strong market

There is no market at present.
Buyers & sellers are just waiting to see what happens.
There are none (or very very few) viewings at present
Nothing is moving!

no.8 · 20-05-2020 08:45PM

Thats a short-sighted statement if ever i saw one. It's not so much the 'lockdown', more so the knock-on effects from it which will be telling. A chain reaction

neon123 · 20-05-2020 09:23PM

Hubertj wrote: »

Don’t buy. Not because of what is or isn’t happening to the market. If you are coming into this thread looking for advice it means you are not ready to make such a decision.

As I mentioned we could be still a year away from buying so I don't think its wrong to seek the opinions of others who have more experience or knowledge of the particular areas we are looking to purchase. If now isn't the time to ask these questions then when is? I've been reading Boards long enough to know there can be questionable opinions or thoughts put up here, but on the flip side there can also be worthwhile nuggets of advise on how best to proceed on things like this. I never said I was ready to make a decision, so comes across as kind of glib to suggest it's inappropriate to seek out peoples thoughts on how to negotiate with EA's etc.

Mic 1972 · 20-05-2020 09:33PM

bubblypop wrote: »

There is no market at present.
Buyers & sellers are just waiting to see what happens.
There are none (or very very few) viewings at present
Nothing is moving!

Viewings are taking place regularly, I called EAs recently to arrange for viewings, you can book them like before. Bidding is happening too

Mav11 · 20-05-2020 09:34PM

bubblypop wrote: »

There is no market at present.
Buyers & sellers are just waiting to see what happens.
There are none (or very very few) viewings at present
Nothing is moving!

Are viewings actually permitted under the restrictions? Because if not, then there is certainly no functioning market.

Mic 1972 · 20-05-2020 09:35PM

Mav11 wrote: »

Are viewings actually permitted under the restrictions? Because if not, then there is certainly no functioning market.

Viewing are permitted and are in fact happening
The market is open

Mav11 · 20-05-2020 09:38PM

Mic 1972 wrote: »

Viewing are permitted and are in fact happening
The market is open

I don't know about that. There is a particular house that I want to view but the estate agent is not showing because of the lock down.

Mav11 · 20-05-2020 09:41PM

Plus it is outside the 5k limit so I believe that I cannot travel!!!!

TheSheriff · 20-05-2020 09:56PM

Mav11 wrote: »

I don't know about that. There is a particular house that I want to view but the estate agent is not showing because of the lock down.

Can confirm viewings are happening.... we attended one two weeks back (albeit within the 2km).

Mav11 · 20-05-2020 10:02PM

TheSheriff wrote: »

Can confirm viewings are happening.... we attended one two weeks back (albeit within the 2km).

That's interesting. Below is an email extract from the estate agent for the house that I am interested in!!

"We will be back the minute people are allowed to travel freely again.
That house at xxxxxxxx is unoccupied so a viewing wont be a problem".

So obviously if there is a functioning market, it is not a fully functioning one!!!

Seems like different EA's are taking different interpretations on the situation.

smokingman · 20-05-2020 10:19PM

I'm only going to state my own opinion here; not to be taken as wise or knowledgable in the slightest. I'm looking at buying a second hand house and this will be the third in my lifetime. The 20% deposit is what is holding me back for the last year but I have about 15% saved for my budget at this stage. On one hand, I'm raging I didn't get something before all this covid thing started as it just introduces so much doubt about the market. I had a target before this and now I'm throwing darts at an ocean. I knew where I needed to be and what I needed to do. Now, I don't know squat. Will the market go up or down? Will I need to save even more? Should I try to get it within the next six months when I think the market may have an initial dip? I watch a lot of the world finances but still see so many competing opinions that it's hard to see any of them being right....but I do think we are going to see a dip initially. Banks are stupid cautious, people are losing jobs, deflation is likely before inflation. That sweet spot is what I'm trying to figure out and for anyone that hits it, fair play to you. I hope I'm there with you

20-05-2020 11:17PM

I hate to use economist type language but don’t buy, the ‘fundamentals’ are up in a heap. I know it is hard to resist when you have been looking for a while but hold on.
The problem is Covid 19 could be here for a few years yet. A massive amount of people are getting money from the State right now, these are all people who shouldn’t dream of buying.
Tourism is gone as an industry for quite a long time to come, hospitality very weak, no mass events potentially for a couple of years. This is the biggest economic shock in living memory and we have no idea when it will end.
Anyone who advises you to buy on the grounds that prices won’t fall is simply a bluffer. There are no grounds for confidence.

bdmc5 · 21-05-2020 12:10AM

Sunny Disposition wrote: »

I hate to use economist type language but don’t buy, the ‘fundamentals’ are up in a heap. I know it is hard to resist when you have been looking for a while but hold on.
The problem is Covid 19 could be here for a few years yet. A massive amount of people are getting money from the State right now, these are all people who shouldn’t dream of buying.
Tourism is gone as an industry for quite a long time to come, hospitality very weak, no mass events potentially for a couple of years. This is the biggest economic shock in living memory and we have no idea when it will end.
Anyone who advises you to buy on the grounds that prices won’t fall is simply a bluffer. There are no grounds for confidence.

Pot kettle black comes to mind reading this. Calling people bluffers while actually telling people not the buy based of pure speculative comments around the economy ,tourism etc.

Of course prices could fall and may well do in the short term but there was strong demand for housing precovid and understandably with people holding off with all the uncertainty the demand will bottleneck further. I have friends and family are proceeding with house buys as they are keen to get on with their lives and any of small reduction going will be offset by expensive rents holding off. They’re still have a lot of people working from home on full salary that are not impacted,yet.

None of people buying now are likely to sell anytime soon,at which time we will be long past Covind so while a bit of mental resilience is required soon after buying as prices will fall I feel , they got their dream house and a home to call their own nothing wrong with buying if you comfortable with price and can afford. Supply will be non existent if price start to fall so just a different opinions to these people saying hold off .

GreeBo · 21-05-2020 06:42AM

The macro fundamentals might be in a heap, but if your own fundamentals are that you have been paying exorbitant rents for the last 5+ years and a mortgage would be considerably cheaper, you have your funds in place, your income is not likely to be impacted and you have find a property that you will be happy in medium term but could survive long term, then buy.

This is the exact same checklist you should always have, covid 19 changes nothing.

lawrencesummers · 21-05-2020 07:12AM

neon123 wrote: »

As I mentioned we could be still a year away from buying so I don't think its wrong to seek the opinions of others who have more experience or knowledge of the particular areas we are looking to purchase. If now isn't the time to ask these questions then when is? I've been reading Boards long enough to know there can be questionable opinions or thoughts put up here, but on the flip side there can also be worthwhile nuggets of advise on how best to proceed on things like this. I never said I was ready to make a decision, so comes across as kind of glib to suggest it's inappropriate to seek out peoples thoughts on how to negotiate with EA's etc.

I dont see the rationale behind peoples saying not to buy now. There is always a perfect time to buy a place, and its always with the benefit of hindsight, you have to make the call based on where you are, and where you want to be.

I bought one place in 2008 and while that was a bad idea down the road at the time I was renting and paying 200 more per month for an apartment than the house I bought.

If your thinking of buying then I would get a good broker and have them look over your situation, if you are looking to buy in 12 months then now is the time to get your application on the right track. They will tell you things that will make your application sail through when the time comes. Like having clean bank statements - no bookmakers or lottery charges on your statements, showing regular savings, having no other loans coming out of your account. No credit card debt. These small things make a big difference to the application.

Being able to show where your savings came from might be necessary. If you are getting a cash gift to help with a deposit it might be worth getting that soon and having it in savings.

Apparently banks are not approving people who are getting the covid payment, if you are getting it you might need to have 6 months of statements post last payment.

The permanency of your employment is another factor, changing jobs might be a bad idea if its not to a permanent position.

The other big decision is the commitment you are entering into with your partner, is the relationship in a sufficient place of commitment that can cope with a large financial venture.

Consider the possible scenarios then, if you buy and one person loses their job can you struggle through and pay for a while, if you have kids will the place your buying suffice to raise them for a while because moving might be difficult.

If i was you simply put i would get a broker, get to approval that you dont have to use, and then keep an eye on things over the next 6 months, track a few places to see how prices are going, maybe get involved in the bidding to see how it works, you never have to accept and can walk away anytime. If you see somewhere thats ideal for budget and location then go for it, its likely that the next while will be a buyers market and you can put in under asking price bids, and bid in smaller increments.

OwlsZat · 21-05-2020 07:22AM

Mic 1972 wrote: »

MyHome and Daft are asking prices, nothing to do with what was already agreed before Covid. Any sale prices or sales agreed prices are not showing in there
Asking prices have not declined at all, so obviously there is still a strong market

https://www.myhome.ie/pricechanges

32 of the last 40 changes have been price declines. The information your basing your opinion on is factually incorrect. This is despite the fact that COVID19 payments are containing the problem - for now.

addaword · 21-05-2020 08:44AM

OwlsZat wrote: »

https://www.myhome.ie/pricechanges

32 of the last 40 changes have been price declines. The information your basing your opinion on is factually incorrect. This is despite the fact that COVID19 payments are containing the problem - for now.

And many people out of work or with diminished earnings have a certain level of savings to help cushion them for a few months or whatever. This helps contain the situation - for now.
Property prices can only fall.

Property Market 2020

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