Property Market 2020

The Belly

Blueshoe wrote: »

Any dip will be temporary. Central Banks are filling government coffers with low cost cash which is then being handed out in the form of subsidies and grants in an effort to keep things ticking over until economies get back on track.

In the Us the federal reserve are specifically targeting markets that ran into liquidity shortages during the 08 collapse. They are being pumped with low cost cash.

There will be stagnation but no deep recession. It won't be allowed happen.
The Eu are keen to try and reintroduce much needed inflation. The best way to achieve this is to keep the money coming.
Expect a massive low cost or no cost deal to be signed.

Yes but the problem is its not going to where it should go. It will keep the banks sorted and big business but small companies wont have any access. The banks will be flooded with liquidity but try and access it and rules will be tighter then before.

Auctioneera

just reading some of the latest posts. Disappointed to see some people saying we shouldn't be allowed on here. Yes, we are an estate agency and have skin in the game....but so does everyone on here. Everyone is either renting, planning to buy or sell. Some people are planning on lowballing vendors, others are proceeding with the offers they made before Covid and some are sitting on the sidelines waiting for a crash. Everyone's entitled to their opinion......even us. Getting us kicked off of here would dilute the discussion - why not have us on here. If you disagree with us, then point out why - let's debate the issues. If you think we're wrong, then fair enough, tell us why and we'll try to defend our opinions politely and respectfully.
In our defense, we can't bluff anyone or talk up the market. Every property on our website has its latest offer on there. If we have no offer, then we put that there in big red letters "No Offer" - we have absolutely nowhere to hide. If there is a crash, and we hope for everyone's sake there isn't (that will only happen if large scale economic hardship for us all), you will see it unfolding in real time on our website. This is not the norm. We believe in total transparency.
We are hoping to be a respectful contributor to this very vibrant and educational group and hope to add some value to it. You won't always agree with us and we won't always agree with you but if we did, there would be no fun in that!

Auctioneera

Cantstandsya wrote: »

You're here as a business to raise awareness of your website.

I'm guessing few people come here to read ads.

We aren't advertising anything. We are partaking in the discussion. We feel we may add some insights as market participants at the coalface. I mean if people insist we leave, then we go and everyone gets back to abusing estate agents with gay abandon. But why not at least hear our views? If we promote ourselves, then fine, kick us off. But so long as we are genuinely participating in the conversation, surely our opinions are relevant too? An echo chamber is of no use to anyone.

Padre_Pio

Auctioneera wrote: »

We're a fixed fee agency - no incentive to drive prices higher and even if we wanted to, we couldn't as all latest offers published transparently on our website. As mentioned previously, the buyers on here have a financial incentive to talk down the market - should they be banned too. Should we vet every participant to ensure that they are financially neutral to all market outcomes?
In that case, we'd need to kick off all buyers, sellers and renters. We all have financial skin in the housing game. So let's accept that and discuss each point on its merits.

I've seen your fees policy and as I said I welcome the discussion.

But this is a discussion, a forum where ideas can be exchanged and hopefully peoples views and opinions mature and grow.

But you're an auctioneer website, not a person (even if there's a person typing out responses) You're outlook cannot change, because to do so means you lose money. So even if the property market is burning down, you'll say it's alright and put on a brave face, like the orchestra on the Titanic.

The reps on the Talk To forums like Liberty or Irish Water are no different to you. I would also question if we're talking to one person, or are their multiple people with access to this account?

EDIT: of course this is just one persons opinion and i have zero power to do anything.

accensi0n

Would you do a 5% discount for boards.ie members?

Alrigghtythen

Why does it take so long between the solicitors getting the contracts and the buyer getting the keys in ireland?

Villa05

Auctioneera wrote:

If there is a crash, and we hope for everyone's sake there isn't (that will only happen if large scale economic hardship for us all), you will see it unfolding in real time on our website. This is not the norm. We believe in total transparency. We are hoping to be a respectful contributor to this very vibrant and educational group and hope to add some value to it. You won't always agree with us and we won't always agree with you but if we did, there would be no fun in that!

I for one welcome you to the discussion and value your transparency.

Do you think that rents at current levels cause large scale hardship for alot of people struggling to get by on low wages?
Recessions are tough but for people on low pay I would argue they improve their standard of living as accommodation is by far their greatest expense and as there wages are low they will not fall by much.

Being an estate agent/auctioneer, would you think the current property market is sustainable and would it not be better for your business if accommodation was affordable to more people

Auctioneera wrote:

In terms of "Now is the time to buy because prices are falling" - rational people don't say that. If people think prices are falling, they wait for them to fall further. This is why central banks are mandated to hit 2% inflation per annum as deflation is seen as one of the worst things that can happen to an economy. It is of course self fulfilling. If I see prices falling, I wait for them to fall more before I buy so demand dries up, so prices go down further to stimulate demand and on we go like that until no one buys at all.

Appreciate your answer, but to expand Do people who are both buyers and sellers worry about falling prices. Does it really matter

And

If a house has risen 300% in the last 20 years, would a fall of 10/20% result in a vendor pulling their property from the market?

I really would value the opinion of someone on the front line on this

cnocbui

Alrigghtythen wrote: »

Why does it take so long between the solicitors getting the contracts and the buyer getting the keys in ireland?

Because the government are too lazy to fix up the pigs breakfest - cash cow for solicitors - that is the Irish legal system.

In Western Australia, there is no gazumping, accept a deposit or pay one and that's it; a deposit binds both parties and means what it should and you buy a house and get the keys in 2-3 weeks. You don't even need a solicitor in most cases, and can instead just use a settlement agent. I think that cost about €180 when I bought my first house. If a vendor hasn't vacated the property by the settlement date, they are fined a significant percentage of the sale price for each DAY they remain and the buyer gets that money.

Several times I have asked solicitors why the Irish legal system is so dysfunctional, and at least twice they say blame the British as the system was inherited from them. Doesn't wash with me, because Australia still has the Queen as head of state and was a former British colony and inherited the same legal system; but the big difference is they improved and fixed many aspects of it.

EagerBeaverton

Auctioneera wrote: »

We just had an offer of the guide price on a 3 bed apartment we are selling. Our socially distanced, very careful viewings are being well attended. Vendors are not entertaining lowball offers as they aren't distressed and can always fall back on the strong rental market if buyers won't step up. Full details here:
https://www.auctioneera.ie/property/61-blackrock-grove-eden-blackrock-cork-t12-h424

Thought this might be of interest to this forum. One swallow doesn't make a summer and one offer of the guide doesn't mean prices won't drop but it's an encouraging sign for us in any case. Thoughts welcome.

Genuinely not being snide when I say this but the phrase "offer of the guide price" is arbitrary and doesn't suggest the property market remains stable - all it means is that you likely valued the house accurately at €225,000 in the current climate. You could have put it up for €240,000 and gotten an offer below the guide which also technically wouldn't indicate the market is dropping, it could just mean you overvalued the property.

Also, from what I can tell from Google maps street view (so I could be wrong), another identical apartment to that one (ground floor, end of row) in the same development sold for €240,000 on 18th March, just 65 days ago. I have no knowledge of the condition of the other apartment and the aspect of yours is East while the other one was North-North-West so this might be a completely unfair comparison, but if the apartment you are currently selling goes for €225,000 (which of course it might not, it might go higher obviously), then that's a 6.5% decrease in value compared to a sale just 65 days ago.

Auctioneera wrote: »

As mentioned previously, the buyers on here have a financial incentive to talk down the market - should they be banned too. Should we vet every participant to ensure that they are financially neutral to all market outcomes?
In that case, we'd need to kick off all buyers, sellers and renters. We all have financial skin in the housing game. So let's accept that and discuss each point on its merits.

You do make a fair point, most here have incentives either way, at least we'd be aware of yours!

I'm nobody to say anything to anyone about what they can and can't do, so this is just an opinion, but there is something about an EA posting details of a single offer on a single house that just seems a bit off the mark. I mean will you post up the next time you get a low ball figure? In fairness you did acknowledge one swallow and all, but the fact that you said your sellers aren't entertaining low ball figures suggests you're getting low ball offers but you ended up posting about the one offer at the guide price as an "encouraging sign", so are you going to be fair and post each time you get an offer below the guide price so there's data to indicate how many offers aren't matching the guide prices and are 'discouraging signs'? I'm 100% genuinely not being flippant with you and in fairness all it takes is one person willing to buy the gaf to keep prices up so all the low ball offers are also meaningless if only one person is happy to purchase.

cunnifferous

Auctioneera wrote: »

We just had an offer of the guide price on a 3 bed apartment we are selling. Our socially distanced, very careful viewings are being well attended. Vendors are not entertaining lowball offers as they aren't distressed and can always fall back on the strong rental market if buyers won't step up. Full details here:
https://www.auctioneera.ie/property/61-blackrock-grove-eden-blackrock-cork-t12-h424

Thought this might be of interest to this forum. One swallow doesn't make a summer and one offer of the guide doesn't mean prices won't drop but it's an encouraging sign for us in any case. Thoughts welcome.

I happy enough for you to post here. It's obvious who you are and where you(s?) are coming from. More opinions the better, why not? But at the same time don't go getting upset when people call out your more provocative pronouncements.

PommieBast

Alrigghtythen wrote: »

Why does it take so long between the solicitors getting the contracts and the buyer getting the keys in ireland?

In my own experience it is down to due-diligence in a system that has a lot of legacy issues. If I am not mistaken Ireland did not even have something comparable to the UK land registry until only a few years ago..

Auctioneera

cunnifferous wrote: »

I happy enough for you to post here. It's obvious who you are and where you(s?) are coming from. More opinions the better, why not? But at the same time don't go getting upset when people call out your more provocative pronouncements.

That's fair - we won't get upset if people disagree with us. We just want to be part of the discussion!

Auctioneera

EagerBeaverton wrote: »

Genuinely not being snide when I say this but the phrase "offer of the guide price" is arbitrary and doesn't suggest the property market remains stable - all it means is that you likely valued the house accurately at €225,000 in the current climate. You could have put it up for €240,000 and gotten an offer below the guide which also technically wouldn't indicate the market is dropping, it could just mean you overvalued the property.

Also, from what I can tell from Google maps street view (so I could be wrong), another identical apartment to that one (ground floor, end of row) in the same development sold for €240,000 on 18th March, just 65 days ago. I have no knowledge of the condition of the other apartment and the aspect of yours is East while the other one was North-North-West so this might be a completely unfair comparison, but if the apartment you are currently selling goes for €225,000 (which of course it might not, it might go higher obviously), then that's a 6.5% decrease in value compared to a sale just 65 days ago.



You do make a fair point, most here have incentives either way, at least we'd be aware of yours!

I'm nobody to say anything to anyone about what they can and can't do, so this is just an opinion, but there is something about an EA posting details of a single offer on a single house that just seems a bit off the mark. I mean will you post up the next time you get a low ball figure? In fairness you did acknowledge one swallow and all, but the fact that you said your sellers aren't entertaining low ball figures suggests you're getting low ball offers but you ended up posting about the one offer at the guide price as an "encouraging sign", so are you going to be fair and post each time you get an offer below the guide price so there's data to indicate how many offers aren't matching the guide prices and are 'discouraging signs'? I'm 100% genuinely not being flippant with you and in fairness all it takes is one person willing to buy the gaf to keep prices up so all the low ball offers are also meaningless if only one person is happy to purchase.

Fair point, well made. I think from now on, we'll skip posting about offers on individual properties.

Auctioneera

accensi0n wrote: »

Would you do a 5% discount for boards.ie members?

Yes, we would for sure if that helps people on here to see that we genuinely want to be part of the discussion. Just quote that you are a Boards member if you call us and we will get your 5% discount applied. Good idea.

Empty_Space

Auctioneera wrote: »

Fair point, well made. I think from now on, we'll skip posting about offers on individual properties.

The desperation to come here and say all is rosey because 1 property has offer at asking is hilarious.

Talk about confirmation bias.

Auctioneera

Empty_Space wrote: »

The desperation to come here and say all is rosey because 1 property has offer at asking is hilarious.

Talk about confirmation bias.

Ya that was a bad idea of a post - we have learned our lesson and won't do again.

Empty_Space

Auctioneera wrote: »

Ya that was a bad idea of a post - we have learned our lesson and won't do again.

I think you should be out of this discussion altogether personally. Not because you've been forbidden by admins but because you have the sense to see it looks unprofessional.

stayback

Everybody here is coming at this topic from a different angle be it an estate agent , first time buyer , investor etc. All will have their own ideas on how things should be and will be. The truth is it’s way too early to call it. 2008 was completely different property prices dropped overnight because banks didn’t have the money to lend. Their was a vacuum even public and civil servants struggled to get mortgages.
Things are different this time. Banks are well capitalised the problem this time is going to be the confidence of the people buying . We don’t know yet if unemployment is going to go up after this all ends we don’t know are people’s wages going to be cut.
House prices will take a dip but nobody can predict by how much as the market will have to dictate that. And the market needs to do its thing.
Rents by the way should normalise too for the same reasons as unemployment and wages cuts. The days of getting €2,500-3,000 a month for an apartment in Dublin should be behind us.

Pivot Eoin

Auctioneera wrote: »

Ya that was a bad idea of a post - we have learned our lesson and won't do again.

Dont really have a problem with Auctioneera being in the chat personally, but the problem will be that a certain faction Users will always be looking for any reason to jump on you and it will dictate the conversation in an "Us vs You" kind of direction.

If the actual users here an just let Auctioneera say their piece without questioning their reasoning for being here then I think it works fine. At the end of the Day Boards provides a service paid to businesses where they can use the forums from an official account should they pay a fee.

Auctioneera have done that, so your problem is with Boards, not Auctioneera. Its up to users themselves to see through any fluff they post (not saying they will post fluff), as is done with any other Articles from EAs or Property sites etc.

Zenify

Looks like more and more companies in Dublin are committed to long term work from home.

Facebook was mentioned on this forum a good while ago that they would not move to wfm as they invested too much into Dublin with the new headquarters

They just announced yesterday that half their workforce could work from home in 5 to 10 years. I dont think they specifically mentioned Dublin. Hopefully other posters heard more specifics?

https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.theguardian.com/technology/2020/may/21/facebook-coronavirus-remote-working-policy-extended-years

smurgen

Yep, pressure valves releasing in alot of areas. Loads of variables coming together to show the downward trend evolving. This is just one of them. This is Facebook trying to match twitter's offer to staff. It's an arm's race to please talent and retain them.

https://twitter.com/davidmcw/status/1263743300374278145?s=19

Hubertj

smurgen wrote: »

Yep, pressure valves releasing in alot of areas. Loads of variables coming together to show the downward trend evolving. This is just one of them.

https://twitter.com/davidmcw/status/1263743300374278145?s=19

Definitely a positive sign and could also be a good retention tool for large companies as employees get older and start thinking about starting a family. Younger people will want to have the big city experience and al that goes with it.

FVP3

bubblypop wrote: »

Auctionera is an estate agent

Thats perfectly clear though, and doesn't necessarily invalidate any position.

Padre_Pio

smurgen wrote: »

Yep, pressure valves releasing in alot of areas. Loads of variables coming together to show the downward trend evolving. This is just one of them. This is Facebook trying to match twitter's offer to staff. It's an arm's race to please talent and retain them.

FB employ 5000 people in Ireland, mean pay in Dublin is around €150k.
There'll be a lot more penthouses in Dublin up for rent if this is true.

FVP3

If FB allow remote 50% remote working in Dublin then their remote staff won't be in Dublin, with the exception of those already here. No point coming here to work from home.

To be honest while I like WFH I would have found it very odd when younger.

Claw Hammer

WFH is just a fad, like "blues sky thinking" , outsourcing, "going forward", "at this point in time". It will all pass.

Zenify

Claw Hammer wrote: »

WFH is just a fad, like "blues sky thinking" , outsourcing, "going forward", "at this point in time". It will all pass.

Do you think it will pass because employers dont want it or the employees dont?

Hubertj

Zenify wrote: »

Do you think it will pass because employers dont want it or the employees dont?

employers need to offer it to both attract and retain employees. If it makes employees happier to have the option of wfh full or part time they should be happier and more likely to stay with or move to that company....

Blueshoe

The Belly wrote: »

Yes but the problem is its not going to where it should go. It will keep the banks sorted and big business but small companies wont have any access. The banks will be flooded with liquidity but try and access it and rules will be tighter then before.

Small and medium businesses will be receiving grants to reopen. It's part of the plan.
The covid payment to staff on the books is also a form of grant.

stayback

stayback wrote: »

2008 was completely different property prices dropped overnight because banks didn’t have the money to lend. Their was a vacuum even public and civil servants struggled to get mortgages.

They really didn't though. I watched the market, things were starting to stall in 2007, I bought in 2009, when things were bad. Prices continued down until at least 2012/13.
Also, I had no issues with getting a mortgage in 2009. In fact I was given a lot more than I could get now. (public service)