Covid19 Part XVII-24,841 in ROI (1,639 deaths) 4,679 in NI (518 deaths)(28/05)Read OP

robbiezero wrote: »

Anytime I saw anything on any news channel during this crisis about NZ, it was Arden speaking decisively.
It was almost like she was calling the shots in that country. Not a Chief Medical Officer to be seen.

* TBH I don't really have much complaint about our CMO lad, but I find it baffling that he is the main man in the country during this crisis.

Very true, one factor I omitted from the attributes list because it's inherent in the word was taking responsibility for one's actions.

It is grievously lacking in the current FG and FF 'leaderships'.

Some of others have shown it to varying degrees, but have never really been put to the test.

stephenjmcd wrote:

Very interesting news here, tested in the Mater and postive results in 30 mins, negative in 60. Now has CE mark

KrustyUCC wrote:

Should hopefully be able to get widely produced and get test times right down.
Might help in same day test, result and then contact tracing

Might be useful for areas like a covid triage ward to determine where to put patients, but not suitable for large scale testing as it can only do 4 samples in an hour.

NI R number now between 0.7 and 0.8, their contact tracing programme will last for a full 12 months.

Deleted User wrote: »

There is no evidence R0 is much above 1 in either country other than normal day to day variation. Both are steady around 1 for the last few weeks with little to suggest a changing trend

Extract from a study using SEIR modelling on reproductive number
...
'R(t), the effective reproductive number, is an important parameter in this model as it reflects the change in R0 (the basic reproduction number) with time and mitigation strategies. The R0 across Europe is 4.5, being highest in Spain, France, and Germany at nearly 6.0, and the lowest in Estonia, Slovenia, and Malta at around 1.4.

The current effective reproductive number Rt is much lower, with a mean EU value of 0.72, being highest in Slovakia, Sweden, and Bulgaria at around 1.1 and lowest in Austria, Cyprus, and France at about 0.3. The relative reduction in reproduction number is most substantial in Sweden, Hungary, and Denmark, ranging from 0.58 to 0.44.'
...
https://www.news-medical.net/news/20200510/Reproduction-number-of-COVID-19-and-how-it-relates-to-public-health-measures.aspx
This study also looked at reaction time from introduction of travel restrictions, as did the undernoted.

The decrease in the number of air travelers in Europe and the decrease in the number of infections transferred from one COVID-19 patient are strongly associated
https://www.biotoday.com/view.cfm?n=90951#.XrOucfdsOGY.twitter
Japanese medical site, Free registration required.

rusty cole wrote: »

I watched Tony the other night and 80 something percent of deaths had underlying conditions and the mean age was 84. As this has swept through the care homes and killed many, surely the remaining residents might have had it and never known or been less affected, so then possibly immune.


Also, according to a doctor on TV3, 50% or more will never know they have it.
We now know that children are very rarely affected if at all and cannot really spread it, contrary to the "super spreader" hype at the beginning, which closed the schools!

so if tragically many older people at the mean age of 84 are dead and children cannot spread it "according to media backed up by the swiss models" and then 50% of us are just wandering round with it until we no longer carry it.

Who are we now protecting?

I think 2/3rds of the death were in care homes, so technically our deaths were most preventable!, had we had the PPE and the know how.
If care homes are ravaged, I don't see how Prisons are not the same. Neither can have visitors, both have staff who go home, do shopping, mix with family etc...

It's all a huge number game I feel.

I don't know where this meme is coming from but it seems to be continually repeated as without any foundation or supporting evidence.

This is the sort of misinformation which can result in complacency and poor decisions being made and potentially lead to a resurgence of CoViD-19 cases.

I've yet to see evidence to substantiate claims that children cannot really get or spread CoViD-19. There are large studies that show the opposite. Let's hope our policy makers read further than ill informed newspaper headlines.

At risk of repeating myself, here goes -

FishOnABike wrote: »

I don't know why this belief is so prevalent. Perhaps it's a case of "If you repeat a lie often enough it becomes the truth."

There are substantial studies that indicate children have a similar attack rate¹ and viral load² as adults.

Children may have played a smaller role in the transmission of CoViD-19 to date because with schools closed they were not circulating in the community and were less likely to be the initial case in any cluster but it is an unfounded jump from that to state that they are any less infectious than adults.

(2) cautions "The viral loads observed in the present study, combined with earlier findings of similar attack rate between children and adults, suggest that transmission potential in schools and kindergartens should be evaluated using the same assumptions of infectivity as for adults ... Based on the absence of any statistical evidence for a different viral load profile in children found in the present study, we have to caution against an unlimited re-opening of schools and kindergartens in the present situation, with a widely susceptible population and the necessity to keep transmission rates low via non-pharmaceutical interventions. Children may be as infectious as adults."

¹ https://www.thelancet.com/journals/laninf/article/PIIS1473-3099(20)30287-5/fulltext

² https://zoonosen.charite.de/fileadmin/user_upload/microsites/m_cc05/virologie-ccm/dateien_upload/Weitere_Dateien/analysis-of-SARS-CoV-2-viral-load-by-patient-age.pdf

niallo27 wrote: »

Does it not get to ya, posting articles like this every day. Have you not any good stories to post, it cannot be all doom and gloom. Its not healthy.

I post plenty of good news
It's a pandemic, it's not going to be mostly good news

wakka12 wrote: »

There is evidence, R0 has risen above 1 again in both Czech Republic and Austria. A second wave is almost inevitable especially ina country like Ireland with no culture of face mask wearing, but that term is extremely dramatic, cases will simply increase,perhaps by a lot, but very likely we will be able to keep them below a level that would be a huge burden for hospitals

Doing that will depend on being able to maintain the R0 below 1 on an ongoing basis. Once it goes above 1 it's just a matter of how long it takes before a country's healthcare system is overwhelmed.

Just at drove up my town and observed road works being carried and four guys not doing anything while a mini-digger did it's thing. Two of them were standing about two feet apart chatting away with no gloves or facemasks or anything. There was at most about two and a half metres between the ones on either side of the four.
This is what we are facing now. We'll see community spread jump quickly by the looks of things. My wife stopped shopping and came home last night due to too many people not adhering to the social distancing guidelines. I've observed people less than a metre apart on numerous occasions over the last couple of days. Basically every time I leave my house it's there to be seen.
We're heading for another lockdown.

dundalkfc10 wrote: »

This has been going on in every supermarket in Ireland for weeks. Inside them is a free for all

If it has been happening for weeks and numbers keep decreasing then it isn’t really a problem.

ACitizenErased wrote:

If it has been happening for weeks and numbers keep decreasing then it isn’t really a problem.

Of it's happening three weeks we wouldn't have results yet.

FishOnABike wrote: »

Doing that will depend on being able to maintain the R0 below 1 on an ongoing basis. Once it goes above 1 it's just a matter of how long it takes before a country's healthcare system is overwhelmed.

Well, no - r0 at its highest was approx 4 here. Healthcare system wasn’t overwhelmed.

R0 less than 1 is goal for suppression, but there is scope above 1 to still contain spread.

dundalkfc10 wrote: »

What do you mean if? The supermarkets have been crazy since day 1, anyone who has been on one will agree

Wait, have you been in all of them?

eagle eye wrote: »

Of it's happening three weeks we wouldn't have results yet.

Incubation period is 5-14 days, so yes we would have seen it.