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Covid19 Part XVII-24,841 in ROI (1,639 deaths) 4,679 in NI (518 deaths)(28/05)Read OP

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Comments

  • #6662
    Mike3287
    Closed Accounts Posts: 379 ✭✭Mike3287


    RebelButtMunch wrote: »
    I heard a theory that it's not the heat/cold effecting the virus, but our behavior during the cold weather. More people indoors and cramped conditions.

    Make sense

    Its bat virus and they are very social, very close contact, huddled in damp caves

    Which is why social distancing and outdoor seems to be work


  • #6663
    FishOnABike
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,839 ✭✭✭FishOnABike


    Plumbthedepths wrote: »
    There wouldn't be a second lockdown, so your if is irrelevant as is the rest of your comment.
    Why not? Can I have this weekend's winning euromillions numbers whily you're at at? (PM, if it's split among everyone reading this thread the share will hardly be worth winning ; -) )


  • #6664
    accensi0n
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,960 ✭✭✭accensi0n


    rusty cole wrote: »
    so if tragically many older people at the mean age of 84 are dead and children cannot spread it "according to media backed up by the swiss models" and then 50% of us are just wandering round with it until we no longer carry it.

    Who are we now protecting?
    .

    Everyone else.


  • #6665
    Away With The Fairies
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 4,077 ✭✭✭Away With The Fairies


    pc7 wrote: »
    I have to agree with you, Sars didn't have one and just burned out (I know it was more deadly etc. I think I read somewhere (maybe here) that the 1918 second wave was due to soldiers being brought back to hospitals from the trenches? Did the Hong Kong flu (in the 50's have a second wave?)

    Look at China. They are experiencing more new cases, brought in from other countries. There will be a second wave here.


  • #6666
    stephenjmcd
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 15,443 ✭✭✭✭stephenjmcd


    Away With The Fairies wrote: »
    Look at China. They are experiencing more new cases, brought in from other countries. There will be a second wave here.

    Experiencing new cases doesn't equate to a second wave.

    You dont know there will be a second wave no more than I can't say there won't be.

    Look at Europe, no second wave so far, manageable new cases even with cross border travel resuming between some countries


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  • #6667
    signostic
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,887 ✭✭✭signostic


    Report in Bloomberg
    Chinese doctors are seeing the coronavirus manifest differently among patients in its new cluster of cases in the northeast region compared to the original outbreak in Wuhan, suggesting that the pathogen may be changing in unknown ways and complicating efforts to stamp it out.

    Full Report


  • #6668
    wakka12
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 9,786 ✭✭✭wakka12


    rusty cole wrote: »
    I watched Tony the other night and 80 something percent of deaths had underlying conditions and the mean age was 84. As this has swept through the care homes and killed many, surely the remaining residents might have had it and never known or been less affected, so then possibly immune.


    Also, according to a doctor on TV3, 50% or more will never know they have it.
    We now know that children are very rarely affected if at all and cannot really spread it, contrary to the "super spreader" hype at the beginning, which closed the schools!

    so if tragically many older people at the mean age of 84 are dead and children cannot spread it "according to media backed up by the swiss models" and then 50% of us are just wandering round with it until we no longer carry it.

    Who are we now protecting?

    I think 2/3rds of the death were in care homes, so technically our deaths were most preventable!, had we had the PPE and the know how.
    If care homes are ravaged, I don't see how Prisons are not the same. Neither can have visitors, both have staff who go home, do shopping, mix with family etc...

    It's all a huge number game I feel.

    1/2 were in care homes

    Prisons were 'ravaged' as in they had a lot of cases, much fewer deaths though because most inmates are young.


  • #6669
    wakka12
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 9,786 ✭✭✭wakka12


    signostic wrote: »
    Report in Bloomberg
    Chinese doctors are seeing the coronavirus manifest differently among patients in its new cluster of cases in the northeast region compared to the original outbreak in Wuhan, suggesting that the pathogen may be changing in unknown ways and complicating efforts to stamp it out.

    Full Report

    Yes but important to note that they don't know for certain whether these changes are actually new or if they were just unnoticed among the chaos of the initial epidemic in Wuhan


  • #6670
    wakka12
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 9,786 ✭✭✭wakka12


    US2 wrote: »
    This obsession with 2nd wave has to stop. Other countries have opened up nearly a month now and absolutely no evidence of 2nd wave. Social distancing and hand washing seems to be enough to keep it under control. This will unfortunately upset some people who are pushing doomsday on us.

    There is evidence, R0 has risen above 1 again in both Czech Republic and Austria. A second wave is almost inevitable especially ina country like Ireland with no culture of face mask wearing, but that term is extremely dramatic, cases will simply increase,perhaps by a lot, but very likely we will be able to keep them below a level that would be a huge burden for hospitals


  • #6671
    hmmm
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 11,203 ✭✭✭✭hmmm


    pc7 wrote: »
    I have to agree with you, Sars didn't have one and just burned out (I know it was more deadly etc. I think I read somewhere (maybe here) that the 1918 second wave was due to soldiers being brought back to hospitals from the trenches? Did the Hong Kong flu (in the 50's have a second wave?)
    SARS burned out because it only spread to a few countries, and those countries took aggressive public health measures to contain it - similar to what we've done.

    Unfortunately Covid has spread worldwide, and there's plenty of countries who are unlikely to be able to completely control it - that's what scientists meant when they said it was likely to become endemic. It would be great if it went the way of SARS, but it's likely that in the future someone coming from parts of Africa, or Iran, or other poorer parts of the globe will hop on a plane and we will have another outbreak.

    There's also plenty of debate as to whether this is controllable at all. We have a low number of cases, but it will hopefully be managed at a low level of spread. Very few are seriously arguing that we can completely eliminate it.


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  • #6672
    bekker
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 912 ✭✭✭bekker


    seamus wrote: »
    I don't agree with the narrative that Ireland could have kept the virus under control as well as New Zealand did. There are too many differences between our situations to make that claim.

    But at the same time I do have a bit of leadership envy; https://www.rte.ie/news/coronavirus/2020/0520/1139468-world-coronavirus/

    Arden had already proven herself a competent and compassionate leader well before this, but she has really shone in this crisis. Her "thing" was always about doing what was best for the country and the individual and not listening to the vested interests and big companies, and she has continued pushing this with gusto.

    She also reveals that the commonly-held idea that you have "peacetime" and "wartime" leaders - people who are good at one or the other but never both - is probably bull****.
    Strength, decisiveness, clarity, competence, equity, consistency, and compassion are generally acknowledged to be common attributes of good leadership.

    Arden, among a few other international leaders score highly across the given attributes.

    Rated on a 0-10 scale for each attribute, few if any of our current crop of political leaders in Ireland would exceed an overall total of 20.


  • #6673
    wakka12
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 9,786 ✭✭✭wakka12


    pc7 wrote: »
    I have to agree with you, Sars didn't have one and just burned out (I know it was more deadly etc. I think I read somewhere (maybe here) that the 1918 second wave was due to soldiers being brought back to hospitals from the trenches? Did the Hong Kong flu (in the 50's have a second wave?)

    SARS is totally incomparable. Every single patient was quickly quarantined after showing symptoms, there was no asymtpomatic spread. It burnt out becaue of rigorous human interventon, nothing to do with the biology of the virus


  • #6674
    pc7
    Moderators, Entertainment Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 14,274 Mod ✭✭✭✭pc7


    wakka12 wrote: »
    SARS is totally incomparable. Every single patient was quickly quarantined after showing symptoms, there was no asymtpomatic spread. It burnt out becaue of rigorous human interventon, nothing to do with the biology of the virus


    Was it not also that it was so hard on the host it was harder to keep itself replicating?

    Either way, I don't have the answer on a second wave, no one does, it is not a guaranteed that it will or won't happen. We just can't know for sure. We could find a treatment that works tomorrow, who knows? All I know is I have a pain in my hoop with it :D


  • #6675
    Away With The Fairies
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 4,077 ✭✭✭Away With The Fairies


    stephenjmcd wrote: »
    Experiencing new cases doesn't equate to a second wave.

    You dont know there will be a second wave no more than I can't say there won't be.

    Look at Europe, no second wave so far, manageable new cases even with cross border travel resuming between some countries

    If new cases get out of control, there will be a second wave.


  • #6676
    stephenjmcd
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 15,443 ✭✭✭✭stephenjmcd


    Away With The Fairies wrote: »
    If new cases get out of control, there will be a second wave.

    Again your playing with the word if, an unknown at the moment, more robust testing and contact tracing should be in place to ensure they dont go beyond manageable levels. Something that wasn't in place anywhere at the start.
    To state an unknown as being the definitive outcome at this point in time isn't accurate


  • #6677
    NegativeCreep
    Closed Accounts Posts: 4,351 ✭✭✭NegativeCreep


    Away With The Fairies wrote: »
    If new cases get out of control, there will be a second wave.

    So we should be looking at increased capacity in hospitals to deal with it. Can’t lock down forever fearing a second wave that may never come.


  • #6678
    podgeandrodge
    Site Banned Posts: 5,975 ✭✭✭podgeandrodge


    wakka12 wrote: »
    There is evidence, R0 has risen above 1 again in both Czech Republic and Austria. A second wave is almost inevitable especially ina country like Ireland with no culture of face mask wearing, but that term is extremely dramatic, cases will simply increase,perhaps by a lot, but very likely we will be able to keep them below a level that would be a huge burden for hospitals
    Away With The Fairies wrote: »
    If new cases get out of control, there will be a second wave.


    With lockdown restrictions being lifted there will inevitably be increases in cases. That is expected by the Govt. Yes, they may have to row back if things unexpectedly get out of control, but once the health service can cope, life will go on and people will go back to work, and living.


  • #6679
    2ndcoming
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,605 ✭✭✭2ndcoming


    wakka12 wrote: »
    SARS is totally incomparable. Every single patient was quickly quarantined after showing symptoms, there was no asymtpomatic spread. It burnt out becaue of rigorous human interventon, nothing to do with the biology of the virus

    Well it's partly to do with the make up of the virus. With most highly fatal illnesses like SARS or Ebola you are too sick to be out and about spreading them, and they kill too many carriers too quickly to be very spreadable - hence they die out by themselves.

    Covid is like a slow release SARS that gave up some of its pathogenicity for increased spreadability.


  • #6680
    bodhrandude
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 12,854 ✭✭✭✭bodhrandude


    I'm hearing reports about a cluster of cases in Fermoy Waterford where a bunch of workers in a meat factory have been tested, so we could see a few more new cases from there.

    If you want to get into it, you got to get out of it. (Hawkwind 1982)



  • #6681
    schmoo2k
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,389 ✭✭✭schmoo2k


    More evidence that reinfection is very unlikely...

    * https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uATMbGK__Tg
    * https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/asia/coronavirus-south-korea-patients-infected-twice-test-a9491986.html
    * https://www.livescience.com/coronavirus-reinfections-were-false-positives.html
    * http://m.koreaherald.com/view.php?ud=20200429000724


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  • #6682
    podgeandrodge
    Site Banned Posts: 5,975 ✭✭✭podgeandrodge


    schmoo2k wrote: »
    More evidence that reinfection is very unlikely...

    * https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uATMbGK__Tg
    * https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/asia/coronavirus-south-korea-patients-infected-twice-test-a9491986.html
    * https://www.livescience.com/coronavirus-reinfections-were-false-positives.html
    * http://m.koreaherald.com/view.php?ud=20200429000724

    Damn you. Don't be coming around here with your good news, upsetting people waiting for Armageddon!


  • #6683
    Away With The Fairies
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 4,077 ✭✭✭Away With The Fairies


    podgeandrodge wrote: »
    Damn you. Don't be coming around here with your good news, upsetting people waiting for Armageddon!

    With the way how this thing goes, there'll be more news tomorrow about reinfection.


  • #6684
    ACitizenErased
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 11,749 ✭✭✭✭ACitizenErased


    bodhrandude wrote: »
    I'm hearing reports about a cluster of cases in Fermoy Waterford where a bunch of workers in a meat factory have been tested, so we could see a few more new cases from there.

    Fermoy is in Cork, no?


  • #6685
    normanoffside
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 10,228 ✭✭✭✭normanoffside


    schmoo2k wrote: »
    More evidence that reinfection is very unlikely...

    * https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uATMbGK__Tg
    * https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/asia/coronavirus-south-korea-patients-infected-twice-test-a9491986.html
    * https://www.livescience.com/coronavirus-reinfections-were-false-positives.html
    * http://m.koreaherald.com/view.php?ud=20200429000724

    I keep saying this, but if reinfection is likely then a vaccine won't work.

    In the article about the Moderna vaccine, they were testing it by comparing the antibodies produced by it and those of recovered patients.

    If those antibodies produced by having had the disease won't stop you being infected again then the same antibodies produced by a vaccine won't help either.


  • #6686
    An Ciarraioch
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,806 ✭✭✭An Ciarraioch


    ACitizenErased wrote: »
    Fermoy is in Cork, no?

    Yes, definitely Cork.


  • #6687
    schmoo2k
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,389 ✭✭✭schmoo2k


    Away With The Fairies wrote: »
    With the way how this thing goes, there'll be more news tomorrow about reinfection.

    One of the points the Korean study makes, is that the existing tests were returning positive for dead viral payloads (which will exist in a person for a long time after they are "better").

    But even the anecdotal evidence is that reinfection is just not happening...


  • #6688
    bodhrandude
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 12,854 ✭✭✭✭bodhrandude


    An Ciarraioch wrote: »
    Yes, definitely Cork.

    Sorry my bad its near Waterford though isn't it.

    If you want to get into it, you got to get out of it. (Hawkwind 1982)



  • #6689
    ACitizenErased
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 11,749 ✭✭✭✭ACitizenErased


    An Ciarraioch wrote: »
    Yes, definitely Cork.

    I live like 10 minutes from Fermoy just double checking it hasn’t moved county 😂


  • #6690
    Be right back
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,344 ✭✭✭Be right back


    bodhrandude wrote: »
    I'm hearing reports about a cluster of cases in Fermoy Waterford where a bunch of workers in a meat factory have been tested, so we could see a few more new cases from there.

    Is that a different cluster to the one in Kepak, Watergrasshill? I did hear lots of the staff affected in Kepak live in Fermoy.


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  • #6691
    1000midgets
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 43 ✭1000midgets


    bodhrandude wrote: »
    Sorry my bad its near Waterford though isn't it.

    98km


This discussion has been closed.
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