Covid19 Part XVII-24,841 in ROI (1,639 deaths) 4,679 in NI (518 deaths)(28/05)Read OP

RebelButtMunch · 20-05-2020 10:28AM

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

Late Autumn is when the next wave will come. Heat reduces transmission of coronavirus like all virus. It's still there but not as prevalent mid summer.

I heard a theory that it's not the heat/cold effecting the virus, but our behavior during the cold weather. More people indoors and cramped conditions.

Away With The Fairies · 20-05-2020 10:29AM

is_that_so wrote: »

That presumes the arrivals are coming from places which have never had the virus nor any restrictions. If we're heading for a very low numbers of cases why do you imagine other countries would not be similar?

It should be for anyone coming into the country.

is_that_so · 20-05-2020 10:29AM

bilston wrote: »

There are two ways to look at it...

On the plus side the health service should be better prepared and there may be better treatments which might reduce the death rate and seriousness of symptoms.

On the downside will the public be as compliant in a second lockdown? While lives come before the economy, the two are intertwined. A second full lockdown could be beyond catastrophic for economies.

In theory that second lockdown will not be needed especially if the first kicks in properly.

CruelSummer · 20-05-2020 10:29AM

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

So come the Autumn the hospitals are overwhelmed, the coffins piling up.

Do you think society goes on as normal?

Or people get terrified and react?

Which do you think?

Another lock down will happen bust or no bust if cases and deaths surge.

You are in denial as to the gravity of the situation.

To be fair Kermit, I think you are exaggerating what is going to happen and how severe this situation is. If you look at Australia and New Zealand for example - they’re heading into their winter now. By all accounts the virus is not affecting them severely at all, both countries are reopening. Australia never had as severe a lockdown as us to begin with. We should keep an eye on how their flu season and winter progresses as an indicator over the next few months.

s1ippy · 20-05-2020 10:29AM

Idiot Nabarro comes out and comments on the school situation in Ireland while not having a clue what the situation here is, inflaming tensions about returning before the summer and questions about the LC. De Gascun shuts him down straight away but what a complete twat, WHO can fly up my hole with that carry on and mind their own business.

Are f*ckin China not content with the damage done here so they've sent their emissary?

https://www.irishexaminer.com/breakingnews/ireland/latest-nphet-official-plays-down-hopes-of-schools-opening-early-1000600.html

Meanwhile, in France
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/coronavirus-france-school-cases-reopen-lockdown-a9520386.html

is_that_so · 20-05-2020 10:31AM

Away With The Fairies wrote: »

It should be for anyone coming into the country.

Based on Dublin Airport alone on an average day you could be talking about tens of thousands of tests a day. That is not remotely sustainable.

NegativeCreep · 20-05-2020 10:31AM

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

Late Autumn is when the next wave will come. Heat reduces transmission of coronavirus like all virus. It's still there but not as prevalent mid summer.

Guess Brazil is freezing cold at the minute.

FishOnABike · 20-05-2020 10:32AM

Gloria Swift Groundhog wrote: »

If there's only 50 odd new cases today, would it not make more sense to keep the lockdown for about month or two as is. Then completely eliminate it and test everyone coming in and out of the country?

Considering that in a normal year over 100,000 passengers a day use our main airports going on CSO statistics, I don't think testing everyone coming in and out of the country would be practicable, even with much reduced numbers travelling.

We could possibly just about do it now with very few people travelling into or out of the country but as soon as people start to travel more it would soon overwhelm our testing capacity.

20-05-2020 10:33AM

I watched Tony the other night and 80 something percent of deaths had underlying conditions and the mean age was 84. As this has swept through the care homes and killed many, surely the remaining residents might have had it and never known or been less affected, so then possibly immune.

Also, according to a doctor on TV3, 50% or more will never know they have it.
We now know that children are very rarely affected if at all and cannot really spread it, contrary to the "super spreader" hype at the beginning, which closed the schools!

so if tragically many older people at the mean age of 84 are dead and children cannot spread it "according to media backed up by the swiss models" and then 50% of us are just wandering round with it until we no longer carry it.

Who are we now protecting?

I think 2/3rds of the death were in care homes, so technically our deaths were most preventable!, had we had the PPE and the know how.
If care homes are ravaged, I don't see how Prisons are not the same. Neither can have visitors, both have staff who go home, do shopping, mix with family etc...

It's all a huge number game I feel.

celt262 · 20-05-2020 10:35AM

At the moment what is the requirements for people coming in from the UK are they to self isolate for 14 days?

I ask because i know of 4 lads who went over last weekend to work and then home this weekend and then back over Monday morning.

Can they just come and go as they please?

Away With The Fairies · 20-05-2020 10:36AM

is_that_so wrote: »

Based on Dublin Airport alone on an average day you could be talking about tens of thousands of tests a day. That is not remotely sustainable.

I'm not talking about tests. Quarantining people on their return. They choose to come home/holiday here, they should put up with being quarantined. We can't have people just get off the planes again and off they go.

What was the whole point of the lockdown? To slow it down. Great, let's invite people over and off we go again.

is_that_so · 20-05-2020 10:37AM

rusty cole wrote: »

I watched Tony the other night and 80 something percent of deaths had underlying conditions and the mean age was 84. As this has swept through the care homes and killed many, surely the remaining residents might have had it and never known or been less affected, so then possibly immune.

Also, according to a doctor on TV3, 50% or more will never know they have it.
We now know that children are very rarely affected if at all and cannot really spread it, contrary to the "super spreader" hype at the beginning, which closed the schools!

so if tragically many older people at the mean age of 84 are dead and children cannot spread it "according to media backed up by the swiss models" and then 50% of us are just wandering round with it until we no longer carry it.

Who are we now protecting?

I think 2/3rds of the death were in care homes, so technically our deaths were most preventable!, had we had the PPE and the know how.
If care homes are ravaged, I don't see how Prisons are not the same. Neither can have visitors, both have staff who go home, do shopping, mix with family etc...

It's all a huge number game I feel.

Community first and the vulnerable groups. Everyone else to request tests and self-isolate while remembering where they have been for two days previously. Care homes was both HSE response and their own systemic issues so a lot to learn and improve there.

is_that_so · 20-05-2020 10:38AM

Away With The Fairies wrote: »

I'm not talking about tests. Quarantining people on their return. They choose to come home/holiday here, they should put up with being quarantined. We can't have people just get off the planes again and off they go.

What was the whole point of the lockdown? To slow it down. Great, let's invite people over and off we go again.

And you could easily have half a million "quarantined" inside a fortnight.

wakka12 · 20-05-2020 10:46AM

https://www.straitstimes.com/asia/east-asia/chinas-new-coronavirus-outbreak-shows-signs-the-virus-could-be-changing

Longer asymtpomatic incubation periods and longer recovery period observed in new clusters in China compared to original Wuhan patients

Gregor Samsa · 20-05-2020 10:47AM

FishOnABike wrote: »

I don't know why this belief is so prevalent. Perhaps it's a case of "If you repeat a lie often enough it becomes the truth."

Fair enough, my comment went beyond the evidence. It doesn't "seem" that children aren't significant transmitters of Covid 19. That's more of a definite statement than is warranted.

But to claim that it's a "lie" is also going too far. There is some evidence of a trend that appears to show less transmission from children - even taking into account schools and childcare being largely closed (remember, they're not closed in every country). So it's an open area of research.

I suppose to answer your question as to where the concept is coming from, I guess statements like this The Royal College of Paediatrics and Child Health would be relevant:

The importance of children in transmitting the virus is difficult to establish, in particular given the number of asymptomatic cases, but there is some evidence that their role in transmitting the virus is fairly limited. Precise details regarding paediatric transmission cannot be confirmed without widespread sero surveillance, but trends are emerging. Studies of multiple family clusters have revealed children were unlikely to be the index case, in Guangzhou, China and internationally. A SARS-CoV-2 positive child in a cluster in the French Alps did not transmit the virus to anyone else, despite exposure to more than 100 people.

(sources in original doc; https://www.rcpch.ac.uk/resources/covid-19-research-evidence-summaries#transmission )

But yes, while it's a trend that warrants further investigation, it's certainly not proven yet, so should not be stated as fact.

dundalkfc10 · 20-05-2020 10:56AM

is_that_so wrote: »

And you could easily have half a million "quarantined" inside a fortnight.

That will be their own choice by coming here

Steve F · 20-05-2020 11:01AM

RebelButtMunch wrote: »

I heard a theory that it's not the heat/cold effecting the virus, but our behavior during the cold weather. More people indoors and cramped conditions.

That's always been the case,not just for Covid19.
The part in bold letters is the reason we get more coughs,colds and flu in winter.
Roasting hot homes/workplaces,windows closed up,no fresh air, everyone breathing in the same fetid air.Perfect breeding ground/transmission for viruses.
Old wives tale that Colds and flu come from getting cold,sitting in a draught,going outside with wet hair or not wearing a vest :pac:

seamus · 20-05-2020 11:02AM

FishOnABike wrote: »

Considering that in a normal year over 100,000 passengers a day use our main airports going on CSO statistics, I don't think testing everyone coming in and out of the country would be practicable, even with much reduced numbers travelling.

We could possibly just about do it now with very few people travelling into or out of the country but as soon as people start to travel more it would soon overwhelm our testing capacity.

In practical terms this will have to be treated quite like the movement of animals.
Countries with the virus under control operate a relatively "open borders" approach to travel. That is, residents of these countries are permitted free travel across eachothers borders.

Travellers from countries outside of this agreement (whether they're visiting or arriving home) automatically go into quarantine at the first port of entry and aren't allowed forward movement until they have two negative tests several days apart.

is_that_so · 20-05-2020 11:10AM

An interesting piece on the vexing question of who spreads the virus. It mentions a new number(well to me anyway!) - the dispersion factor (k).

...
Other infectious diseases also spread in clusters, and with close to 5 million reported COVID-19 cases worldwide, some big outbreaks were to be expected. But SARS-CoV-2, like two of its cousins, severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) and Middle East respiratory syndrome (MERS), seems especially prone to attacking groups of tightly connected people while sparing others.
...

https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2020/05/why-do-some-covid-19-patients-infect-many-others-whereas-most-don-t-spread-virus-all

caveat emptor · 20-05-2020 11:25AM

Gregor Samsa wrote: »

But yes, while it's a trend that warrants further investigation, it's certainly not proven yet, so should not be stated as fact.

Thanks for the detailed response. The last line is most pertinent. I'll save some time for people lest they be mislead.

seamus · 20-05-2020 11:35AM

I don't agree with the narrative that Ireland could have kept the virus under control as well as New Zealand did. There are too many differences between our situations to make that claim.

But at the same time I do have a bit of leadership envy; https://www.rte.ie/news/coronavirus/2020/0520/1139468-world-coronavirus/

Arden had already proven herself a competent and compassionate leader well before this, but she has really shone in this crisis. Her "thing" was always about doing what was best for the country and the individual and not listening to the vested interests and big companies, and she has continued pushing this with gusto.

She also reveals that the commonly-held idea that you have "peacetime" and "wartime" leaders - people who are good at one or the other but never both - is probably bull****.

pc7 · 20-05-2020 11:43AM

On the schools thing, I just feel there seems to be no appetite to do anything here towards it. Its no, its a problem, it is a risk just seems to be the spiel rather than 'what can we do to make it work'. I have a child in junior infants, we get 1 email a week with work, I find it really sad that they will be out of school now for at least 6 months. I really feel they could have had groups of 5 in an hour a week even, just to keep touching base and some normalcy during this.

caveat emptor · 20-05-2020 11:44AM

seamus wrote: »

I don't agree with the narrative that Ireland could have kept the virus under control as well as New Zealand did. There are too many differences between our situations to make that claim.

But at the same time I do have a bit of leadership envy; https://www.rte.ie/news/coronavirus/2020/0520/1139468-world-coronavirus/

Arden had already proven herself a competent and compassionate leader well before this, but she has really shone in this crisis. Her "thing" was always about doing what was best for the country and the individual and not listening to the vested interests and big companies, and she has continued pushing this with gusto.

She also reveals that the commonly-held idea that you have "peacetime" and "wartime" leaders - people who are good at one or the other but never both - is probably bull****.

Yeah I'd agree with you on NZ. She has got a knack for getting things right which is always good in a leader.

The vested interest was here for all to see and still is to an extent. The main one being keeping borders open. It's so illogical to say you can't stop people coming here for a period of time. The list as to why this was the case was endless, even as our European neighbours closed far more complicated borders with speed.

The real reason was bully boy O'Leary and the fact that the downside would be paid for in Negative PR by Leo and Co.

Luckily the advisors warned them not to commit political suicide. Ryanair is going to be in trouble anyway. No-one will be going on city breaks. Nobody trusts them. I certainly wouldn't trust them to clean a plane properly.

Nursing home crisis leaves a bad taste though. HK who share a border with China had no outbreaks in nursing homes.

We are getting better though as regards testing etc. Hope things start reopening soon.

New Home · 20-05-2020 11:44AM

rusty cole wrote: »

I think 2/3rds of the death were in care homes, so technically our deaths were most preventable!, had we had the PPE and the know how.
If care homes are ravaged, I don't see how Prisons are not the same. Neither can have visitors, both have staff who go home, do shopping, mix with family etc...
.

One of the major differences is that in prisons usually none of the staff has to come in close contact with the inmates to change their nappies, wash them, dress them, change their dressings, hoist them in and out of wheelchairs, turn them in their beds to avoid bedsores, bathe them, feed them, etc.

Major, major difference. Not all care home residents are independent.

mandrake04 · 20-05-2020 11:48AM

CruelSummer wrote: »

To be fair Kermit, I think you are exaggerating what is going to happen and how severe this situation is. If you look at Australia and New Zealand for example - they’re heading into their winter now. By all accounts the virus is not affecting them severely at all, both countries are reopening. Australia never had as severe a lockdown as us to begin with. We should keep an eye on how their flu season and winter progresses as an indicator over the next few months.

Yeah it will be interesting, to see if there will be any flu.

Flu is not native to Australia or NZ it just doesn’t materialise out of thin air and is likely brought in from other part of the world probably the norther hemisphere and since it has high Asian population and Asian visitors likely come that route.

Since both have border closed since mid March, forced isolation, social distance, increased hygiene etc and up take of flu shot there be good possibility there might be very low flu number if any. If they able to reduce SARS-Cov-2 then on theory flu should be reduced too.

US2 · 20-05-2020 11:49AM

This obsession with 2nd wave has to stop. Other countries have opened up nearly a month now and absolutely no evidence of 2nd wave. Social distancing and hand washing seems to be enough to keep it under control. This will unfortunately upset some people who are pushing doomsday on us.

Be right back · 20-05-2020 11:49AM

New Home wrote: »

One of the major differences is that in prisons usually none of the staff has to come in close contact with the inmates to change their nappies, wash them, dress them, change their dressings, hoist them in and out of wheelchairs, turn them in their beds to avoid bedsores, bathe them, feed them, etc.

Major, major difference. Not all care home residents are independent.

Excellent point.

pc7 · 20-05-2020 11:50AM

US2 wrote: »

This obsession with 2nd wave has to stop. Other countries have opened up nearly a month now and absolutely no evidence of 2nd wave. Social distancing and hand washing seems to be enough to keep it under control. This will unfortunately upset some people who are pushing doomsday on us.

I have to agree with you, Sars didn't have one and just burned out (I know it was more deadly etc. I think I read somewhere (maybe here) that the 1918 second wave was due to soldiers being brought back to hospitals from the trenches? Did the Hong Kong flu (in the 50's have a second wave?)

caveat emptor · 20-05-2020 11:53AM

seamus wrote: »

I don't agree with the narrative that Ireland could have kept the virus under control as well as New Zealand did. There are too many differences between our situations to make that claim.

But at the same time I do have a bit of leadership envy; https://www.rte.ie/news/coronavirus/2020/0520/1139468-world-coronavirus/

Arden had already proven herself a competent and compassionate leader well before this, but she has really shone in this crisis. Her "thing" was always about doing what was best for the country and the individual and not listening to the vested interests and big companies, and she has continued pushing this with gusto.

She also reveals that the commonly-held idea that you have "peacetime" and "wartime" leaders - people who are good at one or the other but never both - is probably bull****.

She also got this right. Our leadership would never stand up to that lobby. There needs to be an understanding of how many residential homes are bought by foreign capital. I don't mean foreign born people. I mean off shore slush funds where ownership is obscured.

We did a deal to make it look like houses are being built but institutional investors buy the properties and rent back to local authorities for 25 year terms. These will slowly bankrupt local authorities but give good headlines in terms of number of houses built. That's the point. The rent would pay for the house . The ECB is given loans a zero percent.

PR, spin etc comes first.

https://www.cnbc.com/2018/08/16/new-zealand-bans-most-foreigners-from-buying-homes.html

wakka12 · 20-05-2020 11:53AM

pc7 wrote: »

On the schools thing, I just feel there seems to be no appetite to do anything here towards it. Its no, its a problem, it is a risk just seems to be the spiel rather than 'what can we do to make it work'. I have a child in junior infants, we get 1 email a week with work, I find it really sad that they will be out of school now for at least 6 months. I really feel they could have had groups of 5 in an hour a week even, just to keep touching base and some normalcy during this.

Yeh a lot more could have been done to keep education going. I'm in my last year of masters and our more important exam year was just halved, feel so isolated from my peers now and it really impacts your work. At that stage of education you learn more from your peers than your teachers, and that outlet is just gone now. Aside from that there is the social aspect which is dozens of people I've spent most of the last five year so my life with are just gone now, and the ones I was less close with I won't really even get to say a proper goodbye to and probably won't see them until some reunion in years to come. Really sad and depressing and very unmotivating to do work that is really so important for my future career

Covid19 Part XVII-24,841 in ROI (1,639 deaths) 4,679 in NI (518 deaths)(28/05)Read OP

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