Covid19 Part XVII-24,841 in ROI (1,639 deaths) 4,679 in NI (518 deaths)(28/05)Read OP

An Ciarraioch · 16-05-2020 09:55PM

retro:electro wrote: »

Italy entered their lockdown on the 9th of March. Ireland has been following these restrictions since 24th of March so barely two weeks in the difference. So, in essence; why are we three months behind them in opening up?
SHOUTING your answer doesn’t make you any more convincing.

It was said from day one of the roadmap that the phases can be brought forward, maintained as planned, or held back - obviously they'll want to be cautious between 1 and 2 to analyse the effects, but if any increase disappears virtually straight away, then 3 would probably be moved forward to the 22nd.

retro:electro · 16-05-2020 09:56PM

New Home wrote: »

They're having a phased reopening, too. I'm not sure what their plan is, date-wise, but they still have restrictions in place.

Nothing as restrictive as what we have. They will have free travel throughout the country while we’re still humming and hawing over moving to stage 3. Meanwhile our Covid wards are closing up shop and there’s tumbleweeds blowing throughout most hospitals — all while people who need to access screenings and life saving procedures and treatment are left on the long finger til who knows when.
I was all for drastic action at the stage but at this stage it’s farcical

bekker · 16-05-2020 09:56PM

Deleted User wrote: »

Better ways to be with kids than telling them to **** off. Kids will be kids. Blame the parents if you want. And if the mother is a carer or nurse what else is she supposed to do for childminding?

Given that the government has made yet another total FU of it.

retro:electro · 16-05-2020 10:00PM

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

It was said from day one of the roadmap that the phases can be brought forward, maintained as planned, or held back - obviously they'll want to be cautious between 1 and 2 to analyse the effects, but if any increase disappears virtually straight away, then 3 would probably be moved forward to the 22nd.

They deliberated and dithered over moving to stage 1 so much, a stage which I referred to as stage 0 with a fake moustache and glasses, that I have NO hope of them moving them to any other stages with any confidence. They haven’t a monkeys what they’re at. No doubt there’ll be some reason why we can’t move on a phase or accelerate it because of xyz abcdefg. We have absolutely no say in this.

bekker · 16-05-2020 10:00PM

owlbethere wrote: »

What is this? Is there evidence that a previous illness or sickness or flu can offer some protection against this covid19?

Yes, hopefully.
https://www.cell.com/cell/fulltext/S0092-8674(20)30610-3

MipMap · 16-05-2020 10:02PM

Steve F wrote: »

That's possible.1918 flu burnt out....sadly took 2 years

And 50 million people.

Stheno · 16-05-2020 10:03PM

bb1234567 wrote: »

Interestingly in massive contrast to European countries such as Ireland Italy and Sweden where vast vast majority of deaths are over 70, in New York 26.4% of deaths in the state are under 64, and a further 25% are between 64 and 74.

https://www1.nyc.gov/assets/doh/downloads/pdf/imm/covid-19-deaths-confirmed-probable-daily-05162020.pdf

That is much much worse than the stats in Europe. Wonder if obesity is a big factor in that.

Yes there was an article earlier this week which cited obesity in young people and comorbidities (think diabetes was a big one as a factor

Ethnicity also iirc

16-05-2020 10:04PM

Maestro85 wrote: »

Same people will argue that's why creches should be opened. I don't get the mindset. Even if we turn a blind eye to the adult interaction attitude of we are young and healthy enough to survive it, it still doesn't justify kids and old people. The uniform thing is mind boggling. I change out of my work clothes and wash them every evening when I come home and have a routine of washing before I go near the wife (who has bad asthma). It's not that hard to change a routine and maybe I am going overboard on the washing of my uniform given my job has limited interactions with people but to me it is about personal responsibility.

I was actually wondering about the whole dog thing too. One of the ladies at work has been bring in her dog and everyone pats it, even I have, but it only dawned on me a few days ago that a dog could be a potential point of picking it up.

It is highly highly unlikely that the dog is infectious. And if person prior to you had been infectious and passed droplets to the dog. Simple hand hygiene will be enough.

You must also remember, the measure taken were never intended, or even expected to eliminate the virus. The behavioral models indicated the the measure should give an estimated 90% reduction in opportunities for infection to occur, thus reducing R0 significantly below 1. And it is now obvious it has worked. Therefore we move to the phase where we keep the R0 at or below 1. That will not need the same level of restrictions as we had so we can consider reopening things, including crèches as we move through the phases, as society opens, and we return to something approaching normal, not living in fear, but respecting the way we have to live

owlbethere · 16-05-2020 10:08PM

retro:electro wrote: »

Italy entered their lockdown on the 9th of March. Ireland has been following these restrictions since 24th of March so barely two weeks in the difference. So, in essence; why are we three months behind them in opening up?
SHOUTING your answer doesn’t make you any more convincing.

We know from the early days of this virus, healthcare workers are one of the first groups of people to come down sick with this virus. It happens, because people are sick and they don't know its a new very contagious infection. So this would be January or early February time, if people were attending gp surgeries or a + e with covid19 symptoms, it's possible staff were falling ill before people and the authorities realised the new virus.

Its possible there isn't enough staff for a second wave especially with reports of something called a long tail symptoms.

Lifting slowly and monitoring the situation makes sense. If we get a surge or a spike too soon, with too many people getting sick together, it might lead to a second lockdown or just allowing the the virus to run through the population. Both of them options are not suitable.

silverharp · 16-05-2020 10:09PM

Jim_Hodge wrote: »

Viruses mutate any direction, not just to weaker strains. This one doesn't seem to be particularly prone to mutations.

They found one in Arizona, weaker is the tendency though right?

https://www.eurekalert.org/pub_releases/2020-05/asu-ast050420.php

New Home · 16-05-2020 10:11PM

retro:electro wrote: »

Nothing as restrictive as what we have. They will have free travel throughout the country while we’re still humming and hawing over moving to stage 3. Meanwhile our Covid wards are closing up shop and there’s tumbleweeds blowing throughout most hospitals — all while people who need to access screenings and life saving procedures and treatment are left on the long finger til who knows when.
I was all for drastic action at the stage but at this stage it’s farcical

In fairness, though, their lockdown has been way stricter than ours. People have been fined for going beyond 200 metres (not 2000 metres) from their house, for not buying essential items only (they monitored this on the basis of the VAT rate of the goods purchased), for not wearing masks, for instance.

From an article on the BBC website dated 27th April:

Speaking on television on Sunday, Mr Conte outlined how the country would begin "Phase Two" of lifting its coronavirus lockdown. The measures include:
People will be allowed to move around their own regions - but not between different regions
Funerals are set to resume, but with a maximum of 15 people attending, and ideally to be carried out outdoors
Individual athletes can resume training, and people can do sports not only in the vicinity of their homes but in wider areas
Bars and restaurants will reopen for takeaway service from 4 May - not just delivery as now - but food must be consumed at home or in an office
Hairdressers, beauty salons, bars and restaurants are expected to reopen for dine-in service from 1 June
More retail shops not already opened under the earliest easing measures will reopen on 18 May along with museums and libraries
Sports teams will also be able to hold group training from 18 May
There was no announcement on the possibility of Italy's premier football league Serie A resuming, even behind closed doors.
Mr Conte stressed that social distancing measures would need to continue for months to come, and said church services would remain banned. He urged people to stay a metre (3ft) away from each other.
"If we do not respect the precautions the curve will go up, the deaths will increase, and we will have irreversible damage to our economy," the prime minister said. "If you love Italy, keep your distance."
He also said his government would cap the price of face masks at 50 cents ($0.54; £0.44).

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-19_pandemic_lockdown_in_Italy
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-19_pandemic_in_Italy#Under_national_lockdown

fr336 · 16-05-2020 10:15PM

If anyone needs an escape from this crap try Charlie Brooker's antiviral wipe on BBC IPlayer

16-05-2020 10:16PM

Deleted User wrote: »

Better ways to be with kids than telling them to **** off. Kids will be kids. Blame the parents if you want. And if the mother is a carer or nurse what else is she supposed to do for childminding?

I cut some corners in my story, I don't literally tell 6 year olds to **** off.
Between the mother, granny and other parents on the streets they should be keeping the kids separated. It's not ideal to have a kid being minded by the granny but having them mix freely with 3 other families is ****ing retarded.

fr336 · 16-05-2020 10:16PM

MipMap wrote: »

And 50 million people.

But the economy...

Micky 32 · 16-05-2020 10:17PM

MipMap wrote: »

And 50 million people.

It’s been said up to 100million.

MipMap · 16-05-2020 10:20PM

Micky 32 wrote: »

It’s been said up to 100million.

Ah that was scaremongering;)

ZX7R · 16-05-2020 10:22PM

Micky 32 wrote: »

It’s been said up to 100million.

Either figure can not be used as a comparison to what the death figure for covid-19 could be.
Science healthcare are light years ahead now the death figure for covid-19 will be minuscule in comparison to the Spanish flu

MipMap · 16-05-2020 10:26PM

ZX7R wrote: »

Either figure can not be used as a comparison to what the death figure for covid-19 could be.
Science healthcare are light years ahead now the death figure for covid-19 will be minuscule in comparison to the Spanish flu

Yep
HIV-Aids only killed 32 million. And that was dead easy to avoid.
There's progress.

https://www.who.int/gho/hiv/en/

retro:electro · 16-05-2020 10:26PM

New Home wrote: »

In fairness, though, their lockdown has been way stricter than ours. People have been fined for going beyond 200 metres (not 2000 metres) from their house, for not buying essential items only (they monitored this on the basis of the VAT rate of the goods purchased), for not wearing masks, for instance.

From an article on the BBC website dated 27th April:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-19_pandemic_lockdown_in_Italy
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-19_pandemic_in_Italy#Under_national_lockdown

And for good reason. Their hospital system couldn’t cope and they were on the brink of collapse. And here... here.. well we prepared good and well for this surge that we expected and never came. And thank the lord for that. But our hospitals are anything but overwhelmed the minute, they’re actually underwhelmed and the Covid ward in CUH is closed, and other hospitals are seeing 0 new cases daily. Do these figures honestly justify another three months of severe lockdown? We have on average 1-2 ICU admissions per day. That is completely manageable and nothing like the horror stories we had been sold. And yes I know that figure is likely due to our diligence and modified behaviour, which we will continue— but we can’t lock ourselves up forever. If we have -100 cases today and we are STILL being lectured by Tony and co for being good but not good enough, just how good do numbers have to be in order to have some kind of movement in society again?

As soon as any sector opens up there will be a spike, that is inevitable. How long more does society have to pay the price for the fact we have a totally shambolic health system unable to cope under even the slightest bit of pressure, despite pumping millions into it?People are fed up, tired of being patronised and it’s beyond ridiculous. The rest of Europe will be away with it thinking corona who and we’ll all still be confined to 5k over here

fr336 · 16-05-2020 10:26PM

ZX7R wrote: »

Either figure can not be used as a comparison to what the death figure for covid-19 could be.
Science healthcare are light years ahead now the death figure for covid-19 will be minuscule in comparison to the Spanish flu

I get ya. 500,000 predicted UK deaths in a population of 60 million is nothing. No social or economic repercussions at all. I say let's just get on with it.

fr336 · 16-05-2020 10:28PM

retro:electro wrote: »

And for good reason. Their hospital system couldn’t cope and they were on the brink of collapse. And here... here.. well we prepared good and well for this surge that we expected and never came. And thank the lord for that. But our hospitals are anything but overwhelmed the minute, they’re actually underwhelmed and the Covid ward in CUH is closed, and other hospitals are seeing 0 new cases daily. Do these figures honestly justify another three months of severe lockdown? We have on average 1-2 ICU admissions per day. That is completely manageable and nothing like the horror stories we had been sold. And yes I know that figure is likely due to our diligence and modified behaviour, which we will continue— but we can’t lock ourselves up forever. If we have -100 cases today and we are STILL being lectured by Tony and co for being good but not good enough, just how good do numbers have to be in order to have some kind of movement in society again?

As soon as any sector opens up there will be a spike, that is inevitable. How long more does society have to pay the price for the fact we have a totally shambolic health system unable to cope under even the slightest bit of pressure, despite pumping millions into it?People are fed up, tired of being patronised and it’s beyond ridiculous. The rest of Europe will be away with it thinking corona who and we’ll all still be confined to 5k over here

Have you met my friend Exponential growth?

bekker · 16-05-2020 10:28PM

retro:electro wrote: »

They deliberated and dithered over moving to stage 1 so much, a stage which I referred to as stage 0 with a fake moustache and glasses, that I have NO hope of them moving them to any other stages with any confidence. They haven’t a monkeys what they’re at. No doubt there’ll be some reason why we can’t move on a phase or accelerate it because of xyz abcdefg. We have absolutely no say in this.

The real problem is the Departments, and then the government which slavishly follows their lead.

None of which have much ^practical^ contact with ^the functioning of the^ real world.

We need a sensible staged loosening with max 72 hour test, track, trace, isolate. Aside from 3TI, the missing element is sensible.

We need mandatory mask wearing when away from home, enforced only in cases of egregious breaches. Customer footfall has to increase massively ^over the proposed levels^ to get service, distribution and transport businesses viable again and that requires customers feeling confident enough to use them in the necessary numbers for viability.

Practical physical separation in just not possible in many commercial activities. What should be possible for most to be do is to wear masks, weraeappropriate PPE, put in place washing facilities and sanitising washdowns every day or shift change, with in/out temperature checks, ideally with in/out separation and changing area. Then catch the infected before clusters are created.

It's time such facts were faced up to and either safest practical practice with it's inherent risks accepted, or else have state compensation packages put in place for the proprietary interests and employees involved in the sectors being eliminated through state 'ideal' (we can blame someone else) regulation.

The current policy seems to be declaim impractical regulations which will regulate businesses and employment out of existence and pretend it's just commercial forces and nothing to do with government action or inaction.

Frankly I'm pessimistic about our chances of doing practical regulation effectively, it requires radical decision making and joined-up thinking, and there is no evidence of that in the COVID-19 response so far, and no sign of it on the horizon either politically or institutionally

growleaves · 16-05-2020 10:29PM

MipMap wrote: »

Yep
HIV-Aids only killed 32 million. And that was dead easy to avoid.
There's progress.

https://www.who.int/gho/hiv/en/

You've mentioned two of the worst diseases in history. Don't forget the Justinian Plague and the Black Death for bonus points.

Jim_Hodge · 16-05-2020 10:37PM

silverharp wrote: »

They found one in Arizona, weaker is the tendency though right?

]

No, mutation by it's very definition can, as I said, go in any direction, shape or form. There is no tendency

16-05-2020 10:44PM

retro:electro wrote: »

And for good reason. Their hospital system couldn’t cope and they were on the brink of collapse. And here... here.. well we prepared good and well for this surge that we expected and never came. And thank the lord for that. But our hospitals are anything but overwhelmed the minute, they’re actually underwhelmed and the Covid ward in CUH is closed, and other hospitals are seeing 0 new cases daily. Do these figures honestly justify another three months of severe lockdown? We have on average 1-2 ICU admissions per day. That is completely manageable and nothing like the horror stories we had been sold. And yes I know that figure is likely due to our diligence and modified behaviour, which we will continue— but we can’t lock ourselves up forever. If we have -100 cases today and we are STILL being lectured by Tony and co for being good but not good enough, just how good do numbers have to be in order to have some kind of movement in society again?

As soon as any sector opens up there will be a spike, that is inevitable. How long more does society have to pay the price for the fact we have a totally shambolic health system unable to cope under even the slightest bit of pressure, despite pumping millions into it?People are fed up, tired of being patronised and it’s beyond ridiculous. The rest of Europe will be away with it thinking corona who and we’ll all still be confined to 5k over here

The only way to be fully past coronavirus is zero new cases for 14 days

We are an island and have a much better oppurtunity of beating this,than most other countries

Kermit.de.frog · 16-05-2020 10:45PM

In South America Chile begins imposing lock downs starting with Santiago as fears grow among neighbors over the out-of-control spread in nearby Brazil.

https://twitter.com/thehill/status/1261676530096205825

Also Peru reported over 4,000 new cases today and 131 new deaths.

bb1234567 · 16-05-2020 10:53PM

What would we do without your news to brighten up our day KErmit :pac:

bekker · 16-05-2020 10:55PM

Deleted User wrote: »

The only way to be fully past coronavirus is zero new cases for 14 days

We are an island and have a much better oppurtunity of beating this,than most other countries

You get the case volume that you test for, zero new case without statistically valid random testing has little meaning.

In practical terms we are not an island, we have an unpolicable land border with a political entity with whom we have extensive common ^familial,^ economic and security interests, and with whom we are currently jointly walking a tightrope.

ZX7R · 16-05-2020 10:59PM

MipMap wrote: »

Yep
HIV-Aids only killed 32 million. And that was dead easy to avoid.
There's progress.

https://www.who.int/gho/hiv/en/

40 million alive and been treated for the control of HIV.
Progress through science and healthcare.

In the year 2000 1.4 million were infected
In 2018 77000
More progress through science and healthcare.
Sadly 61% of new infections are from the African countries.
HIV is a epidemic not a pandemic.
Genetic analysis has the origin of HIV to around 1884.
It been around for a long time it has not wiped us out.
HIV is a virus.
Aids is a condition that can be controlled by medication.
More progress of science and healthcare.

coastwatch · 16-05-2020 11:00PM

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

In South America Chile begins imposing lock downs starting with Santiago as fears grow among neighbors over the out-of-control spread in nearby Brazil.

https://twitter.com/thehill/status/1261676530096205825

Also Peru reported over 4,000 new cases today and 131 new deaths.

Thats good.
The world needs every country to take actions to suppress outbreaks and so eliminate resevoirs of the virus.

Covid19 Part XVII-24,841 in ROI (1,639 deaths) 4,679 in NI (518 deaths)(28/05)Read OP

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