Relaxation of Restrictions, Part III - Read OP for Mod Warnings

Ginger n Lemon · 16-05-2020 05:17PM

Flimsy_Boat wrote: »

Restrictions are lifted in Cork city. Place is mobbed. Queues around the block for English Market, Three Fools Coffee, Soma Coffee, Cameron's Fine Bakery. Even Supervalu was crazy busy. It's not even sunny!

Seems like theres reverse psychology at play as Simon Harris was very clear yesterday "Advice from the government is clear, you should stay at home"

Poor Simon. Completely lost it. he hasnt changed his tune since 12th of March lol talk about unable to adapt.

Stormyteacup · 16-05-2020 05:17PM

Goldengirl wrote: »

This has been explained on all the threads and the briefings.
Each target, ie testing capacity, R number, ICU numbers, case numbers , deaths , are all interrelated. They can't say when our deaths reach this number we will lift restrictions, if , for example infection in the community has started to rise.

Right.

So how do they decide when to lift restrictions? Do you think they know themselves what numbers they are aiming for?

They have criteria, you can be sure.

Goldengirl · 16-05-2020 05:18PM

podgeandrodge wrote: »

GUARDIAN
As Europe emerges from lockdown, the question hangs: was Sweden right?
Simon Jenkins

Stockholm gambled in its response to coronavirus, but neither its economy nor its healthcare system have collapsed

Who on earth is right? We cannot all be right.

One country has all but dropped off the Covid-19 radar: Sweden. Just two months ago, it held hands with Britain in rejecting total lockdown and trusting “social distancing”. Then on 23 March, Boris Johnson did a U-turn, leaving Sweden and, to a lesser extent, Germany, on its own. Since then the divergence has become radical and political. Sweden’s centre-left government, darling of Bernie Sanders and world liberalism, is suddenly lauded by the libertarian right.

Like millions, I have become an armchair epidemiologist. The reason is instinctive. I am being ordered daily by my prime minister to live in fear of my life. I have come to exist in a miasma of R-rates, antigen tests, infection fatality ratios and “excess deaths”. Now, as Europe and the world emerge blearily to survey the wreckage of lockdown, the question is still left hanging. Was Sweden right?

The one table that glares at us daily is the international league table of deaths per million. Even if the aggregates are unreliable, there is a crude reality to a body count. Yet the only conclusion to be drawn from the figures is that the league table is no help to policy.

There is no correlation between fatalities and lockdown stringency. The most stringent lockdowns – as in China, Italy, Spain, New Zealand and Britain – have yielded both high and low deaths per million. Hi-tech has apparently “worked” in South Korea, but so has no-tech in Sweden. Sweden’s 319 deaths per million is far ahead of locked-down Norway’s 40 and Denmark’s 91, but it’s well behind locked-down UK’s 465 and Spain’s 569.

Sweden’s light-touch policy is led by two scientists, Johan Giesecke and his protégé Anders Tegnell. The latter currently leads Stockholm’s strategy with daily matter-of-fact media appearances and 73% popular support. Unlike in politicised Britain, ministers do not regularly appear.

Tegnell has been emphatic throughout. A degree of social distancing and avoiding crowds is enough. As for lockdown, “Nothing to do with [it] has a scientific basis.”

To Giesecke, a mild-mannered veteran World Health Organization virologist, Covid-19 is “a tsunami sweeping the world”, but he notes that it threatens older, sick people above all. He admits that Sweden’s higher-than-average death rate shows it made mistakes. “At first we failed to shield the old and vulnerable.” Its economy has suffered from a collapse in exports, but it has kept itself open and at work, and has not seen the surge in “all-causes excess deaths” of the UK and other high-lockdown states. This surge seems to be increasing due to a partial collapse in other areas of critical health care.

Where I find Sweden’s policy more of a gamble is in its faith in developing a “collective immunity” that will protect it from future outbreaks. Giesecke talks of half of all Swedes probably infected in some degree, and tests suggest that a quarter of people in Stockholm have the virus and will probably – but by no means certainly – be protected against any resurgence. This compares with just 2% of people in Oslo. That divergence in vulnerability can only be tested in the event of a second spike.

More to the point, there is no evidence of mass immunity having developed anywhere else. In Germany another lockdown sceptic, the virologist Hendrik Streek, thinks countries could be approaching one third immunity, which could be hopeful. But as policy, the idea is unnerving to many. Such was the fear generated by “herd immunity” in Britain in March that the phrase itself has become barely mentionable.

Yet according to Tegnell, whatever we think, “there is no other escape” but to find ways of living with this virus. There is no sign of a vaccine on the immediate horizon. We cannot ruin the world economy indefinitely. Better to concentrate on protecting our health services against it, should it return.

The half-Swedish commentator Freddie Sayer has been closely monitoring this debate from the UK. He makes the point that with each passing week the rest of Europe moves steadily closer to imitating Sweden. It is doing so because modern economies – and their peoples – just cannot live with such crushing abnormality as they have seen these past two months.

Britain now faces a challenge. I believe early criticism of Boris Johnson was unfair. He had a respectable case for proceeding on an evidence-based approach, had he only concentrated his attention on the high-risk health and care sectors. In his U-turn he opted for the politics of fear. He now has workers terrified of working, and parents terrified of school. He has frightened his economy into inertia.

I share the view of scientists such as Cambridge’s David Spiegelhalter and Oxford’s Carl Heneghan that this virus is unprecedented in its infectiousness, but that it will pass. The chief variant will prove to be how governments reacted, and the toll they took on the rest of their healthcare and the wider economy.

Sweden gambled in its response, but so did the rest of the world. South Africa’s lockdown threatens it with economic and political catastrophe. The UN warns that the world could lose four years of growth at a cost of $8.5 trillion. Famine and further disease will be rife. That was surely the greater gamble.

Yes that is the article posted above quoted in its entirety. Thanks ?

podgeandrodge · 16-05-2020 05:20PM

podgeandrodge wrote: »

GUARDIAN
As Europe emerges from lockdown, the question hangs: was Sweden right?
Simon Jenkins

Stockholm gambled in its response to coronavirus, but neither its economy nor its healthcare system have collapsed

Who on earth is right? We cannot all be right.

One country has all but dropped off the Covid-19 radar: Sweden. Just two months ago, it held hands with Britain in rejecting total lockdown and trusting “social distancing”. Then on 23 March, Boris Johnson did a U-turn, leaving Sweden and, to a lesser extent, Germany, on its own. Since then the divergence has become radical and political. Sweden’s centre-left government, darling of Bernie Sanders and world liberalism, is suddenly lauded by the libertarian right.

Like millions, I have become an armchair epidemiologist. The reason is instinctive. I am being ordered daily by my prime minister to live in fear of my life. I have come to exist in a miasma of R-rates, antigen tests, infection fatality ratios and “excess deaths”. Now, as Europe and the world emerge blearily to survey the wreckage of lockdown, the question is still left hanging. Was Sweden right?

The one table that glares at us daily is the international league table of deaths per million. Even if the aggregates are unreliable, there is a crude reality to a body count. Yet the only conclusion to be drawn from the figures is that the league table is no help to policy.

There is no correlation between fatalities and lockdown stringency. The most stringent lockdowns – as in China, Italy, Spain, New Zealand and Britain – have yielded both high and low deaths per million. Hi-tech has apparently “worked” in South Korea, but so has no-tech in Sweden. Sweden’s 319 deaths per million is far ahead of locked-down Norway’s 40 and Denmark’s 91, but it’s well behind locked-down UK’s 465 and Spain’s 569.

Sweden’s light-touch policy is led by two scientists, Johan Giesecke and his protégé Anders Tegnell. The latter currently leads Stockholm’s strategy with daily matter-of-fact media appearances and 73% popular support. Unlike in politicised Britain, ministers do not regularly appear.

Tegnell has been emphatic throughout. A degree of social distancing and avoiding crowds is enough. As for lockdown, “Nothing to do with [it] has a scientific basis.”

To Giesecke, a mild-mannered veteran World Health Organization virologist, Covid-19 is “a tsunami sweeping the world”, but he notes that it threatens older, sick people above all. He admits that Sweden’s higher-than-average death rate shows it made mistakes. “At first we failed to shield the old and vulnerable.” Its economy has suffered from a collapse in exports, but it has kept itself open and at work, and has not seen the surge in “all-causes excess deaths” of the UK and other high-lockdown states. This surge seems to be increasing due to a partial collapse in other areas of critical health care.

Where I find Sweden’s policy more of a gamble is in its faith in developing a “collective immunity” that will protect it from future outbreaks. Giesecke talks of half of all Swedes probably infected in some degree, and tests suggest that a quarter of people in Stockholm have the virus and will probably – but by no means certainly – be protected against any resurgence. This compares with just 2% of people in Oslo. That divergence in vulnerability can only be tested in the event of a second spike.

More to the point, there is no evidence of mass immunity having developed anywhere else. In Germany another lockdown sceptic, the virologist Hendrik Streek, thinks countries could be approaching one third immunity, which could be hopeful. But as policy, the idea is unnerving to many. Such was the fear generated by “herd immunity” in Britain in March that the phrase itself has become barely mentionable.

Yet according to Tegnell, whatever we think, “there is no other escape” but to find ways of living with this virus. There is no sign of a vaccine on the immediate horizon. We cannot ruin the world economy indefinitely. Better to concentrate on protecting our health services against it, should it return.

The half-Swedish commentator Freddie Sayer has been closely monitoring this debate from the UK. He makes the point that with each passing week the rest of Europe moves steadily closer to imitating Sweden. It is doing so because modern economies – and their peoples – just cannot live with such crushing abnormality as they have seen these past two months.

Britain now faces a challenge. I believe early criticism of Boris Johnson was unfair. He had a respectable case for proceeding on an evidence-based approach, had he only concentrated his attention on the high-risk health and care sectors. In his U-turn he opted for the politics of fear. He now has workers terrified of working, and parents terrified of school. He has frightened his economy into inertia.

I share the view of scientists such as Cambridge’s David Spiegelhalter and Oxford’s Carl Heneghan that this virus is unprecedented in its infectiousness, but that it will pass. The chief variant will prove to be how governments reacted, and the toll they took on the rest of their healthcare and the wider economy.

Sweden gambled in its response, but so did the rest of the world. South Africa’s lockdown threatens it with economic and political catastrophe. The UN warns that the world could lose four years of growth at a cost of $8.5 trillion. Famine and further disease will be rife. That was surely the greater gamble.

Goldengirl wrote: »

Yes that is the article posted above quoted in its entirety. Thanks ?

You're welcome.

Goldengirl · 16-05-2020 05:20PM

Nermal wrote: »

If anyone has said more than 50% of the death certificates listing COVID-19 as the cause of death were incorrect, feel free to quote them. I remember none.

I do remember posts saying people dying of other causes were being recorded as COVID-19 just because they'd tested positive, which is accurate.

I also remember posts saying that because it almost exclusively affects the very ill and elderly, that in terms of years of life lost, it's not as serious as if it affected the population at random. ]quote

It has been linked with cardiac related deaths and strokes causing death.
Not all these are elderly patients but middle aged and without a previous history of cardiovascular disease.
Now we have a connection with a newly discovered Paediatric Inflammatory Multisystem Syndrome , which another poster dismissed as "probable," "possibly connected", affecting young children who have had an infection some weeks before. None of these will as yet be any more than probable or possible as these are all new connections being made with no historical data .
These have been recommended to medics to consider in their diagnoses precisely because leading doctors and pathologists feel they are connected, and many of these cause death or at least morbidity, and add to the toll this virus takes.
A lot of these people would have lived long and healthy lives were it not for this.
Are you saying the numbers should not be taken into account?
Or are you trying somehow to minimise the effects of this very nasty infection , by saying it is generally the elderly?

16-05-2020 05:20PM

frillyleaf wrote: »

So was I. Personally I would still consider this lockdown. I can’t believe we are still restricted to 5km. There’s very little changing apart from construction and meeting people outside

the 5km bit is the hardest thing right now (I think).

Next time there's clapping I'm not clapping for health care workers.

I'm clapping for the parents of all those young kids at home since 12th March, parents who are also working full time from home and dealing with phone calls from clients and their manager, at the same time as schooling their kids, parents of children with physical and mental disabilities and no respite, people just over cancer surgery with no follow up supports, people waiting for diagnosis of a lump. I'm clapping for people who have lost a loved one anytime in the last 5 years and are still so recently bereaved. Their sadness and loneliness must be crippling.
I'm clapping for anyone who opened a small business in the last year, spent so much money just to get a place open, decked the premises out, bought all their stock, many of these will never recover. We are all stuck at home. We are meant to be all in this together. We're not.

I really don't think Tony Holohan thinks of anything but Covid and his reputation. I am hugely disappointed in Leo Varadkar as he is the one who is meant to be able to see the overall picture, not just the health concerns, but the economic and overall well being of the Irish citizens. I can't believe how one dimensional this crisis has become!

Where are the other ministers at the moment, where is Simon Coveney? He is usually a rock of sense. Leo is a "yes" man. Simon Coveney is a negotiator and has a brain. Its like everyone apart from Leo, Simon Harris and Tony Holohan have gone into a Covid coma like the rest of us! Why is nobody asking questions?

FintanMcluskey · 16-05-2020 05:22PM

Goldengirl wrote: »

Or are you trying somehow to minimise the effects of this very nasty infection , by saying it is generally the elderly?

Ah stop. It is the elderly this is lethal too.

We now know this is lethal to primarily the elderly. The median age of death is beyond life expectancy in Ireland.

Outside of that age group it's no worse than any seasonal respiratory illness.

Flimsy_Boat · 16-05-2020 05:25PM

podgeandrodge wrote: »

Are they social distancing? Maintaining a few feet distance?

In some cases yes, but not always. There's just a lot more people walking around generally.

MrDavid1976 · 16-05-2020 05:27PM

Flimsy_Boat wrote: »

Restrictions are lifted in Cork city. Place is mobbed. Queues around the block for English Market, Three Fools Coffee, Soma Coffee, Cameron's Fine Bakery. Even Supervalu was crazy busy. It's not even sunny!

The people of Cork will ruin it for the rest of us. Tony and the de Gascon chap will be giving out to us now.

ednwireland · 16-05-2020 05:27PM

Flimsy_Boat wrote: »

Restrictions are lifted in Cork city. Place is mobbed. Queues around the block for English Market, Three Fools Coffee, Soma Coffee, Cameron's Fine Bakery. Even Supervalu was crazy busy. It's not even sunny!

was in donegal town this morning picking up bread. hardly a soul. no problem social distancing in aldi either.

WhiteMemento9 · 16-05-2020 05:29PM

Flimsy_Boat wrote: »

Restrictions are lifted in Cork city. Place is mobbed. Queues around the block for English Market, Three Fools Coffee, Soma Coffee, Cameron's Fine Bakery. Even Supervalu was crazy busy. It's not even sunny!

The fact this is thanked by people encouraging a fast reopening tells you all you need to know. I realy do despair. Good luck Cork.

podgeandrodge · 16-05-2020 05:30PM

Flimsy_Boat wrote: »

In some cases yes, but not always. There's just a lot more people walking around generally.

Well, I guess that this is what has to happen no? Life has to get back on track, and hopefully people will take appropriate distancing measures to reduce transmission, but it was never about eliminating it, only allowing the health service to cope.

Colibri · 16-05-2020 05:30PM

MrDavid1976 wrote: »

The people of Cork will ruin it for the rest of us. Tony and the de Gascon chap will be giving out to us now.

Tony will give the lads in Three Fools a good stern look.

God I love that place, haven't had a coffee there since probably late February. Nicest coffee in Cork. Best service too!

Flimsy_Boat · 16-05-2020 05:30PM

podgeandrodge wrote: »

Well, I guess that this is what has to happen no? Life has to get back on track, and hopefully people will take appropriate distancing measures to reduce transmission, but it was never about eliminating it, only allowing the health service to cope.

Yes, but the timing is interesting. Government advice hasn't actually changed all that much.

Goldengirl · 16-05-2020 05:31PM

Stormyteacup wrote: »

Right.

So how do they decide when to lift restrictions? Do you think they know themselves what numbers they are aiming for?

They have criteria, you can be sure.

They do and they explain them for all to hear , on every daily briefing , repeatedly, again and again , over and over, like a boards.ie poster, lol.

SusieBlue · 16-05-2020 05:33PM

WhiteMemento9 wrote: »

The fact this is thanked by people encouraging a fast reopening tells you all you need to know. I realy do despair. Good luck Cork.

I thanked it because it’s true.
The fear is gone down here, there are people everywhere. Walking through the city centre it’s like a normal Saturday except nothings open.
People are walking around drinking coffee & giving business to the few shops that are tradings.
They’re getting takeaway from the cafes & restaurants & eating it on benches and in the park.

Considering 4 major businesses on Patrick St. alone have announced permanent closure since lockdown started 9 weeks ago, I think it’s heart warming to see so many people supporting the local economy, and long may it last.

Goldengirl · 16-05-2020 05:34PM

FintanMcluskey wrote: »

Ah stop. It is the elderly this is lethal too.

We now know this is lethal to primarily the elderly. The median age of death is beyond life expectancy in Ireland.

Outside of that age group it's no worse than any seasonal respiratory illness.

Ignorant post yet again.

Colibri · 16-05-2020 05:35PM

SusieBlue wrote: »

Considering 4 major businesses on Patrick St. alone have announced permanent closure since lockdown started 9 weeks ago, I think it’s heart warming to see so many people supporting the local economy, and long may it last.

Debenhams is all I know of, damn. Which other businesses?

ek motor · 16-05-2020 05:36PM

FintanMcluskey wrote: »

Ah stop. It is the elderly this is lethal too.

We now know this is lethal to primarily the elderly. The median age of death is beyond life expectancy in Ireland.

Outside of that age group it's no worse than any seasonal respiratory illness.

Utter tosh. 13% hospitalization rate makes it significantly worse than "any seasonal respiratory illness".

Flimsy_Boat · 16-05-2020 05:36PM

Colibri wrote: »

Debenhams is all I know of, damn. Which other businesses?

Oasis

wakka12 · 16-05-2020 05:37PM

FintanMcluskey wrote: »

Ah stop. It is the elderly this is lethal too.

We now know this is lethal to primarily the elderly. The median age of death is beyond life expectancy in Ireland.

Outside of that age group it's no worse than any seasonal respiratory illness.

No they werent .General life extectancy is an irrelevant metric as it is distorted by people who die of young age.

The life expectancy at age 80 in Ireland is 88.6 years.

https://knoema.com/atlas/topics/Demographics/Age/Life-expectancy-at-age-80-years

ek motor · 16-05-2020 05:37PM

Goldengirl wrote: »

Ignorant post yet again.

Not just ignorant, completely false too.

SusieBlue · 16-05-2020 05:37PM

Colibri wrote: »

Debenhams is all I know of, damn. Which other businesses?

Debenhams, Hairspray, Oasis, and Holland & Barrett. There’s surely more to come, too.

WhiteMemento9 · 16-05-2020 05:38PM

SusieBlue wrote: »

I thanked it because it’s true.
The fear is gone down here, there are people everywhere. Walking through the city centre it’s like a normal Saturday except nothings open.
People are walking around drinking coffee & giving business to the few shops that are tradings.
They’re getting takeaway from the cafes & restaurants & eating it on benches and in the park.

Considering 4 major businesses on Patrick St. alone have announced permanent closure since lockdown started 9 weeks ago, I think it’s heart warming to see so many people supporting the local economy, and long may it last.

Aye, all seems completely reasonable. Hopefully they get the pubs back open very quickly. Get a few games of sport with packed stadiums on the go. We need to stop living in fear. Gather together again and celebrate life, not hide away. Government lies controlling the population. Make Cork great again.

FintanMcluskey · 16-05-2020 05:38PM

ek motor wrote: »

Utter tosh. 13% hospitalization rate makes it significantly worse than "any seasonal respiratory illness".

Utter tosh.

Until all asymptomatic caes are tested and proved positive that stat is tosh.

prunudo · 16-05-2020 05:38PM

Flimsy_Boat wrote: »

Restrictions are lifted in Cork city. Place is mobbed. Queues around the block for English Market, Three Fools Coffee, Soma Coffee, Cameron's Fine Bakery. Even Supervalu was crazy busy. It's not even sunny!

As someone mentioned earlier in the thread it appears as if a large number of the public have had enough and decided how to deal with the virus themselves, they are now one phase ahead of the government thinks we should be.

coastwatch · 16-05-2020 05:38PM

FintanMcluskey wrote: »

Ah stop. It is the elderly this is lethal too.

We now know this is lethal to primarily the elderly. The median age of death is beyond life expectancy in Ireland.

Outside of that age group it's no worse than any seasonal respiratory illness.

If only that was true.
Around 15% of cases, need hospital treatment, including around 3% of cases that require ICU and follow on rehab.
Definitely worse than any seasonal respiratory illness.

Colibri · 16-05-2020 05:40PM

SusieBlue wrote: »

Debenhams, Hairspray, Oasis, and Holland & Barrett. There’s surely more to come, too.

Ah ****. Definitely more to come.

I worked for a short amount of time in the Sony Centre, where hairspray is/was. Remember the grand parade a few years back, lots of it was shuttered. I'm not looking forward to that.

FintanMcluskey · 16-05-2020 05:40PM

coastwatch wrote: »

If only that was true.
Around 15% of cases, need hospital treatment, including around 3% of cases that require ICU and follow on rehab.
Definitely worse than any seasonal respiratory illness.

Have those percentages accounted for asymptomatic cases?

Mike3287 · 16-05-2020 05:41PM

ek motor wrote: »

Utter tosh. 13% hospitalization rate makes it significantly worse than "any seasonal respiratory illness".

Its closer to 1.3% than 13%

We missed alot of cases

Relaxation of Restrictions, Part III - **Read OP for Mod Warnings**

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Relaxation of Restrictions, Part III - Read OP for Mod Warnings