Relaxation of Restrictions, Part III - Read OP for Mod Warnings

MadYaker · 16-05-2020 03:47PM

I haven’t seen anyone in this thread saying the lockdown should be extended for months. So many straw man arguments. People need some perspective on what’s been happening in other parts of the world. Our lockdown has been soft compared to Italy, Spain, France etc. I do think the roadmap could be sped up though. The government seem to be taking advice almost exclusively from doctors and scientists. Are economists getting a look in at all. Probably one of the disadvantages of having a doctor as Taoiseach.

stephenjmcd · 16-05-2020 03:48PM

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

The number of posters in this thread who are going to look very foolish come the Autumn is extraordinary when this takes off again. :eek:

Same posters will claim they never pushed for premature opening of the economy and return to normal in the teeth of expert advice, precedents and warnings.

I suspect many will disappear actually rather than be reminded!

And if the dreaded second wave doesn't come like it hasn't in other countries at this moment will you disappear rather than be reminded?

growleaves · 16-05-2020 03:48PM

stephenjmcd wrote: »

What they say seems to change every day. Hand me a beer but dont let me stay more than 15 minutes... ok

Drink up

The_Brood · 16-05-2020 03:48PM

What happens if all the European countries that are reopened now get back on their feet and live again with no second wave etc. while Ireland continues under lockdown misery until August (which is pretty much end of the world economically speaking) ? Will people not feel like we should have followed the other countries and reopened now?

Goldengirl · 16-05-2020 03:50PM

stephenjmcd wrote: »

The spreading fear part is the UCC professor.

The De Gascun part just doesn't make sense. If someone has virus on their hands and passes me a beer and I hold that beer then it's the same as handing me a knife with it.

The more you handle stuff directly from someone outside your family bubble the more likely you are to pick something up. Also the longer you stay talking ...ditto.

A professor who has experience in environmental science and virus control, is not spreading "fear" . It's widely accepted that public servants who are being exposed to a lot of people would be advised to wear masks.

Ginger n Lemon · 16-05-2020 03:52PM

Watching Leipzig v Freiburg. Absolutely amazing, 22 men completely forgot about covid, social distancing, masks, gloves, 0.25% mortality.

Life is back and somewhat ironically we have Germans to thank for.

FintanMcluskey · 16-05-2020 03:52PM

MadYaker wrote: »

I haven’t seen anyone in this thread saying the lockdown should be extended for months. So many straw man arguments. People need some perspective on what’s been happening in other parts of the world. Our lockdown has been soft compared to Italy, Spain, France etc. I do think the roadmap could be sped up though. The government seem to be taking advice almost exclusively from doctors and scientists. Are economists getting a look in at all. Probably one of the disadvantages of having a doctor as Taoiseach.

Our lockdown has not being soft considering our population.
Lombardy had 10m people in an area the size of Munster.
At least compare like for like.
Italy is in talks about reigniting tourism, all the while in Irealnd we have talks about rolling back to phase 1.

I agree with everything else you said

is_that_so · 16-05-2020 03:52PM

stephenjmcd wrote: »

And if the dreaded second wave doesn't come like it hasn't in other countries will you disappear rather than be reminded?

Even if it does we've got a lot more tools now and we will manage it a lot better. We should also have possible treatments and a lot more scientific knowledge.

Mike3287 · 16-05-2020 03:54PM

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

The number of posters in this thread who are going to look very foolish come the Autumn is extraordinary when this takes off again. :eek:
!

Yeah and what is our version of a lockdown going to prevent?

You either go all in like New Zealand with a closed economy or don't bother with a lockdown, tell people wear masks and carry on with life

What we are doing is bull****

We can't do anything right

FintanMcluskey · 16-05-2020 03:55PM

Ginger n Lemon wrote: »

Watching Leipzig v Freiburg. Absolutely amazing, 22 men completely forgot about covid, social distancing, masks, gloves, 0.25% mortality.

Life is back and somewhat ironically we have Germans to thank for.

Whats mortality among the ages that plays football. So for under 35 males, fit and strong what's the mortality among that demographic?

I imagine you have more chance of drowning in the shower after the match

Stheno · 16-05-2020 03:56PM

Goldengirl wrote: »

The more you handle stuff directly from someone outside your family bubble the more likely you are to pick something up. Also the longer you stay talking ...ditto.

You're missing the point which is these so called experts are sending out contradictory messages

Holohan yesterday " it's fine for a group of four people to meet up in one of their garden" and no time limit suggested

De Gascun today " you should only meet up in public outdoor places, and for less than 15 minutes"

How is that in any way consistent?

is_that_so · 16-05-2020 03:56PM

Goldengirl wrote: »

The more you handle stuff directly from someone outside your family bubble the more likely you are to pick something up. Also the longer you stay talking ...ditto.

A professor who has experience in environmental science and virus control, is not spreading "fear" . It's widely accepted that public servants who are being exposed to a lot of people would be advised to wear masks.

It's not what he knows it's how he's delivering it. Has he explained why and what the actual risk level is?

Mike3287 · 16-05-2020 03:57PM

Stheno wrote: »

You're missing the point which is these so called experts are sending out contradictory messages

Holohan yesterday " it's fine for a group of four people to meet up in one of their garden" and no time limit suggested

De Gascun today " you should only meet up in public outdoor places, and for less than 15 minutes"

How is that in any way consistent?

Why 15 minutes?

FintanMcluskey · 16-05-2020 03:57PM

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

The number of posters in this thread who are going to look very foolish come the Autumn is extraordinary when this takes off again. :eek:

Same posters will claim they never pushed for premature opening of the economy and return to normal in the teeth of expert advice, precedents and warnings.

I suspect many will disappear actually rather than be reminded!

Irony can be defined as follows

a state of affairs or an event that seems deliberately contrary to what one expects and is often wryly amusing as a result.

Assetbacked · 16-05-2020 03:59PM

the kelt wrote: »

Just watching the bundesliga live and back in action there now.

It’s great to see a level of normality, strange without crowds but actually not as bad as I thought it would be.

One of our resident misery junkies on this thread was not long ago telling people how sport of any level was practically done for 2020 and definitely no chance before August/September.

Great to see countries not being obsessed with the misery, worst case scenario and fear and trying to move on, learning to live with the virus whilst being responsible in how they do it.

It can be done elsewhere, it can be done here.

Hopefully it encourages people to start to get into a mentality of resuming their lives as they were a few weeks ago by seeing other countries and people starting to get on with everything. At this stage it's hard to see Monday being only phase one with the amount of cafes, businesses and people who are going to be out and about doing their business, making plans to buy things and visit friends/family. It is also extremely difficult to imagine that people will listen if the guidance changes in a few weeks and we have to lockdown again. This is it done at this stage.

Stheno · 16-05-2020 03:59PM

Mike3287 wrote: »

Why 15 minutes?

The close contact is more than 15 minutes contact with someone. I imagine that's his rationale

Colibri · 16-05-2020 04:01PM

stephenjmcd wrote: »

What they say seems to change every day. Hand me a beer but dont let me stay more than 15 minutes... ok

Challenge accepted ðŸ˜‚

growleaves · 16-05-2020 04:02PM

I've only asked people to stop predicting cykotine storm mutation or some other catastrophic scenario for the second wave. It confuses people into thinking it is more likely than it really is.

It would be a high-stakes gamble for the big European countries to go back into lockdown for the winter due to the stress on global food supply chains and on social cohesion within these countries.

Ginger n Lemon · 16-05-2020 04:06PM

growleaves wrote: »

I've only asked people to stop predicting cykotine storm mutation or some other catastrophic scenario for the second wave. It confuses people into thinking it is more likely than it really is.

It would be a high-stakes gamble for the big European countries to go back into lockdown for the winter due to the stress on global food supply chains and on social cohesion within these countries.

I think every normal country bar us knows that lockdowns have very little use if any. Everyday that Sweden doesnt report 10 000 dead proves this.

16-05-2020 04:07PM

growleaves wrote: »

I've only asked people to stop predicting cykotine storm mutation or some other catastrophic scenario for the second wave. It confuses people into thinking it is more likely than it really is.

It would be a high-stakes gamble for the big European countries to go back into lockdown for the winter due to the stress on global food supply chains and on social cohesion within these countries.

Like the WHO said today, these coming weeks and months are the time to build up our ICU capacity so that we can deal with a 2nd wave in the winter without such compete lockdowns (which we all know would not be anywhere near as effective or well observed the 2nd time around). We will love with this and our health service needs to be able to absorb another wave while we keep to as much normality as possible

MrDavid1976 · 16-05-2020 04:07PM

growleaves wrote: »

I've only asked people to stop predicting cykotine storm mutation or some other catastrophic scenario for the second wave. It confuses people into thinking it is more likely than it really is.

It would be a high-stakes gamble for the big European countries to go back into lockdown for winter due to the stress on global food supply chains and on social cohesion within these countries.

Do they know it is coming? The date it will arrive? Where it will hit first?

One would hope that the world will be extremely vigilant now on any viruses. Where they will monitor properly the community etc etc. Where we have temperature testing in airports? Where people will proactively not go into work if sick?

the alternative means we should bunker down for the summer just in case? Will this prevent it? Will this cause any more damage?

MadYaker · 16-05-2020 04:10PM

Ginger n Lemon wrote: »

I think every normal country bar us knows that lockdowns have very little use if any. Everyday that Sweden doesnt report 10 000 dead proves this.

What happened to case numbers in every country in the world after they implemented lockdown? The numbers dropped. Do you honestly think that was a coincidence? Go have a look at what’s happening in Brazil now and get a fcuking clue.

Kermit.de.frog · 16-05-2020 04:11PM

FintanMcluskey wrote: »

Irony can be defined as follows

a state of affairs or an event that seems deliberately contrary to what one expects and is often wryly amusing as a result.

Not sure about you but I don't see anything amusing about this situation.

What I see is risky rhetoric and grotesque ignorance, selfishness and shortsightedness that is alarming.

And I stand by my prediction that you guys will be nowhere to be seen on boards later in the Autumn when things go south (hopefully not before then).

Stormyteacup · 16-05-2020 04:12PM

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

The number of posters in this thread who are going to look very foolish come the Autumn is extraordinary when this takes off again. :eek:

Same posters will claim they never pushed for premature opening of the economy and return to normal in the teeth of expert advice, precedents and warnings.

I suspect many will disappear actually rather than be reminded!

But they are not mutually exclusive? You can be in favour of a quicker easing of restrictions, and be in favour of reimposition of them, if it’s necessary.

Eradication is not possible.

If the healthcare system is threatened again this year, or in years to come, of course we must do what’s necessary to ensure everyone who needs care will get it.

But, what are the criteria for moving through the phases of restrictions, or for reimposing them?

Do you know what number of hospital admissions, recovery rates, death rates etc. we look for before moving to phase 2 and beyond, or back a step either?

Goldengirl · 16-05-2020 04:13PM

Stheno wrote: »

You're missing the point which is these so called experts are sending out contradictory messages

Holohan yesterday " it's fine for a group of four people to meet up in one of their garden" and no time limit suggested

De Gascun today " you should only meet up in public outdoor places, and for less than 15 minutes"

How is that in any way consistent?

It's not very clear I agree.
I don't know if they spell it out clearer somewhere, but I did hear a discussion on the briefing about not sitting in other people's gardens, using there loo and other stuff , but to meet only in public areas.
I would think it's not any lifting of restrictions if you have to meet for only 15 mins.
Presumably once you keep socially distanced you could stay for a while.
Sharing food and drink would be a bit silly though, after all of this .00/

MadYaker · 16-05-2020 04:14PM

Stormyteacup wrote: »

But they are not mutually exclusive? You can be in favour of a quicker easing of restrictions, and be in favour of reimposition of them, if it’s necessary.

Eradication is not possible.

If the healthcare system is threatened again this year, or in years to come, of course we must do what’s necessary to ensure everyone who needs care will get it.

But, what are the criteria for moving through the phases of restrictions, or for reimposing them?

Do you know what number of hospital admissions, recovery rates, death rates etc. we look for before moving to phase 2 and beyond, or back a step either?

I think it mostly depends on icu numbers and whatever the models are predicting.

Ginger n Lemon · 16-05-2020 04:15PM

MadYaker wrote: »

What happened to case numbers in every country in the world after they implemented lockdown? The numbers dropped. Do you honestly think that was a coincidence? Go have a look at what’s happening in Brazil now and get a fcuking clue.

They contracted their GDP by 5-20% and created 15-30% unemployment.

Also, a lot of people over 70 year old died and keep dying even as lockdowns are lifted, unfortunately.

Can you help me out on benefits? Preferably with some actual numbers.

Colibri · 16-05-2020 04:15PM

Good article. Please read before you respond to the headline:

As Europe emerges from lockdown, the question hangs: was Sweden right? | Simon Jenkins | Opinion | The Guardian -
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/may/15/europe-emerges-lockdown-question-hangs-was-sweden-right

Ginger n Lemon · 16-05-2020 04:17PM

MadYaker wrote: »

I think it mostly depends on icu numbers and whatever the models are predicting.

The models

Friday night comedy was yesterday. Not a single model proved to be even 20% accurate.

MrDavid1976 · 16-05-2020 04:19PM

Serious question for those who want to wait until September to even move to something a little normal.

What is the level of community infection?

Are people sick who are not getting tested?

Can people be indefinitely asymptomatic?

What are the metrics which decide on the easing of restrictions?

Is there any consideration being given to economic, societal, risk factors?

Is any consideration being given to people with other health issues, potential issues?

Relaxation of Restrictions, Part III - **Read OP for Mod Warnings**

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Relaxation of Restrictions, Part III - Read OP for Mod Warnings